The Midterm ‘Red Wave: Too Good to Be True?

 

The GOP will lose the midterm elections. No way, you say? Read on.

The so-called conventional wisdom (an oxymoron if there ever was one) in the political scene these days is illustrated by just this morning’s small selection of headlines:

Mike Bloomberg says Democrats are heading for a ‘wipeout’ in the midterms if they don’t ‘correct course’ and admit schools were closed for too long during COVID

Democrats Are Making Life Too Easy for Republicans

Bloomberg Says Dems ‘headed for a wipeout’ in Mid-term Elections

There is an old reliable truism that goes something like this: “When something looks too good to be true, it usually is.” It was definitely a standby phrase in our law practice and I could not count the times we invoked that saying when considering amazingly positive developments in our cases, almost all of which proved to be illusory or downright false.

I was prompted to set down these thoughts by a note I received from a very good friend, Mike Walker, one of the finest and most professional attorneys ever to practice in Louisiana and one whose intellect and incisive analytical skills I greatly respect. Mike, who likes to use the nom de plume “Winston Smith”, a most appropriate one considering the surreal times we are living in, wrote the following, which I am quoting verbatim:

The recent action of New York City in allowing illegals to vote should worry every conservative, moderate, Republican or anyone who depends on the rule of law in this country.  I am coming to believe that the Dems intend to place illegal aliens from the southern border in states whose electoral votes usually determine the outcome of national elections (Pa., Ariz., N.M., Mich., Ga., etc.).  Those states’ democratic legislatures will enact, as NYC did,  new laws right before the midterm elections, to allow illegal aliens or anyone else to vote without identification.  Voila’, no more GOP presidential victories ever.  While Biden’s attempt to enact legislation nationally to remove voter i.d. requirements has for the present failed, it is the states, not the national government, which currently regulate election law.  There are many states currently under the control of liberal democrat governors and legislatures which would slavishly hew to the dictates of the national democratic party.  The result is achievable in time for the midterms.  I believe this will be attempted and is likely to succeed unless moderates and conservatives wake up and enact state laws requiring that only legal citizens with legal identification be allowed to vote.   Remember, the entire 2020 election swung on 42,000 votes in 3 states.  Getting that number of illegals in the right places is probably already a done deal.  If due to last-minute changes to the states’ election laws they are allowed to vote (as happened in the last election), there’s no way a Republican ever gets elected again.

Tragically, it’s not likely that there enough Americans who are remotely aware of this or who give a damn.

Just sayin’,

Winston Smith

He added the following thought-provoking postscript:

Just coming to realize that the Dems want us to think that the elections are going to be a landslide for the GOP.  What am I missing here?

A little far-fetched for your taste? Really? Was the election outcome in 2020 just a tad far-fetched? Would you have ever in your wildest dreams expected the widespread destruction wreaked on the great and stable America left by President Trump by this group of left-wing lunatics, lead by a dementia-stricken “President” and a “Vice-President” bereft of even normal intelligence? The blatantly unconstitutional imprisonment without trial of American citizens in that jurisprudential cesspool known as the District of Columbia, some of whom committed the “crime” of walking into what they thought was their Capitol Building? One of the worst and most disgraceful retreats in American history in Afghanistan? The literal disappearance of the Southern Border by virtue of this President’s abject violation of his oath to “protect and defend the Constitution of the United States”?

Admittedly, this is a tip-of-the-iceberg list, but we are all painfully familiar with the indignities inflicted on our beloved Nation by this Socialist/Marxist cabal, and Mike’s note brought into sharp focus a concern I have been experiencing for some time and one which is being noted more and more lately as doubts begin to show about all the celebratory euphoria with regard to the coming “landslide.” Such a concern is clearly evident in a piece by the estimable Victor Davis Hanson in a piece entitled “How America Became La La Land”, here, as follows:

What explains an America that suddenly no longer works?

First, all of these problems are self-induced. They did not exist until Biden birthed them for ideological or political reasons. Apparently, his administration wanted a changing, more favorable electorate and demography at any cost.

Just like all Americans who are thoroughly disgusted and ashamed by the actions of this worst-Administration-in-American History, I am thrilled by all these wonderful polls coming out showing how we are absolutely, positively guaranteed to flip the House and that we have a fair to good chance of taking the Senate and how we really, really this time have the Loons on the run. It’s all so wonderful to hear.

But….

Is it too good to be true?

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  1. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    The assumption of an easy win frequently leads to a morale crushing loss.  

    The assumption of an easy win draws in a number of marginal candidates. 

     

     

    • #1
  2. Roderic Reagan
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    Jim George:

    It’s all so wonderful to hear.

    But….

    Is it too good to be true?

    As the midterms draw close watch for Democrats to distance themselves firmly from all the problematic policies attached to them now.  They will act as if they never advocated defunding police,  sexualizing little kids, taxing everything, opposing development of domestic energy sources, advocating open borders, and so on.  The news media will go along with that and the polls will close up the gap.  It will be another horse race.

     

    • #2
  3. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    I too am crossing my fingers this November . . .

    • #3
  4. Stina Member
    Stina
    @CM

    I was so optimistic in 2020. Our loss was more than a little discouraging. My morale is already wrecked.

    • #4
  5. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    Is it too good to be true?

    Yes. 

    • #5
  6. Ekosj Member
    Ekosj
    @Ekosj

    Every time I see some statistic about polling showing how the country is on the wrong track or how unpopular FJB is, I have to remind myself that at least half of those people are dissatisfied because they want MORE progressivism not less.  I think there is a fairly good chance that AOC is the next President of the US.   So the midterms are by no means certain.

    • #6
  7. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    If half of the country votes to continue down this path, it will tell me we can’t fix the country and “the great divorce” is inevitable. I really don’t have much in common with the other half anyway. 

    • #7
  8. philo Member
    philo
    @philo

    In case you have missed the obvious for years…the Ds are always playing by the rules they have secretly established for the next election while the Rs are smugly still reacting to the old game used in the last election. Nothing will surprise me in the mid-terms…and beyond.

    • #8
  9. Doctor Robert Member
    Doctor Robert
    @DoctorRobert

    So much in this post rings true.  We need to mobilize hard and fight harder to overcome the fraud.

    • #9
  10. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    So many states have Republicans in charge of redistricting. How can you not get a red wave with that in your favour?

    • #10
  11. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    We just watched 3 federal level elections get stolen in 2020 and people think the GOP has a chance now?   From what I can tell they are just going to steal them again and the GOP is fine with it since I see almost nothing being done to create elections that can be auditable so everybody can believe they are honest.  I expect very little from the 2022 election and absolutely nothing from the 2024 election.  The Democrats run this country and the bureaucracy is going to make it so they stay in charge so they can have their little progressive ways with us.  

    I am not sure how the elections will be rigged so the Democrats win.  I suspect it may be some of what has been mentioned in the OP.  I just expect them to do so and that it will be allowed to happen and that anybody that points it out will be marginalized maybe jailed.  COVID has proven to me what this country is and frankly it may deserve what it gets.   

    • #11
  12. Stina Member
    Stina
    @CM

    Zafar (View Comment):

    So many states have Republicans in charge of redistricting. How can you not get a red wave with that in your favour?

    Courts overruled legislative rule.

    • #12
  13. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Why would conservative-leaning “swing” states be willing to let illegals vote?  Especially since they seem to be the ones who were already tightening up requirements – or maybe just enforcing the existing requirements – after the 2020 debacle.

    • #13
  14. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Zafar (View Comment):

    So many states have Republicans in charge of redistricting. How can you not get a red wave with that in your favour?

    Well to start with they are doing so by using numbers provided to them by the Democrats.  Yes, the GOP is actually that silly.

    • #14
  15. Jim George Member
    Jim George
    @JimGeorge

    philo (View Comment):

    In case you have missed the obvious for years…the Ds are always playing by the rules they have secretly established for the next election while the Rs are smugly still reacting to the old game used in the last election. Nothing will surprise me in the mid-terms…and beyond.

    Not to make light of what to so many of us is one of the most important issues of our lifetimes, I keep coming back to the old Peanuts credo when confronted with the Republicans’ repeated demonstration of how they can uncannily pull defeat from the jaws of victory by playing according to the Marquis of Queensbury Rules while the other side is wallowing around in the pig sty doing whatever it takes to win:

    • #15
  16. Dotorimuk Coolidge
    Dotorimuk
    @Dotorimuk

    The Democrats are playing the long game with their human trafficking effort. They don’t mind losing a couple of elections in the short term. 

    • #16
  17. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Every time I see some statistic about polling showing how the country is on the wrong track or how unpopular FJB is, I have to remind myself that at least half of those people are dissatisfied because they want MORE progressivism not less.

    Me too.

    • #17
  18. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Every time I see some statistic about polling showing how the country is on the wrong track or how unpopular FJB is, I have to remind myself that at least half of those people are dissatisfied because they want MORE progressivism not less.

    Exactly.  I have yet to see a follow-up question on why folks think things are on the wrong track.

    • #18
  19. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    Stad (View Comment):

    Ekosj (View Comment):
    Every time I see some statistic about polling showing how the country is on the wrong track or how unpopular FJB is, I have to remind myself that at least half of those people are dissatisfied because they want MORE progressivism not less.

    Exactly. I have yet to see a follow-up question on why folks think things are on the wrong track.

    Same here.  I think I understand why.

    But note that this is just one man’s opinion.  As Regis used to say, “I’m only one man!” 

    “Why do you think that?” forms an abstract thinking chain longer than one (the level of abstraction of the amoeba).   The only people who would ask the question, or care about the answer, are the “abstract thinkers”–those poor souls  who think that ideas have consequences.  They are the  people who think in terms of theories without realizing that the automatic response to every conclusion based on any theory is “that is fine in theory, but theories have nothing to do with the real world”.  Giving rational arguments for a position takes “too many words”.  They bore normal twitterers to death.

    The mass media functionaries are not abstract thinkers, and they know that their audience are not abstract thinkers. They want to see the poll results, in flashy colors, and then after a few seconds, they are impatient to see three minutes of commercials, each with cuts to a new screen every .75 seconds, and no rational connection to the product being sold.

    • #19
  20. E. Kent Golding Member
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    I think the Democrats should get crushed in the next election.   Wether they will get crushed is another thing entirely.   I agree the purpose of all the media screaming about the Republicans crushing the Dems in the next election is to motivate and scare the democratic base,   and to get the Republicans to be over confident and complacent.    I think Michigan is going to go heavily for the Democrats,  because they controlled the nominally  non-partisan redistricting process,   because the Sec. of State (Benson) is a very partisan Democrat,  & because the Michigan Republican Party is notably ineffective and stupid.

    • #20
  21. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Non-partisan redistricting plans will always favor the Democrats. 

    Partisan redistricting plans run by the Democrats will eventually be accepted by the Republicans. 

    Partisan redistricting plans run by the Republicans will be overturned by Democrat lawsuits.  

    • #21
  22. CACrabtree Coolidge
    CACrabtree
    @CACrabtree

    Dotorimuk (View Comment):

    The Democrats are playing the long game with their human trafficking effort. They don’t mind losing a couple of elections in the short term.

    I could be wrong but I believe that all those who are spilling over the border now will be counted in the census as a matter of policy.

    If this is the case, is this the D’s plan to mitigate any population movement to the sunbelt states?

    Just wondering…

    • #22
  23. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November.  But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    • #23
  24. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November. But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    And until they clean up elections, we should make that claim. Let their tactics create headaches.

    • #24
  25. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    EHerring (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November. But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    And until they clean up elections, we should make that claim. Let their tactics create headaches.

    I saw one article this morning where a GOP state rep wanted to introduce a bill banning electronic voting machines.  Forgot which state . . .

    • #25
  26. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    Stad (View Comment):

    EHerring (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November. But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    And until they clean up elections, we should make that claim. Let their tactics create headaches.

    I saw one article this morning where a GOP state rep wanted to introduce a bill banning electronic voting machines. Forgot which state . . .

    I wonder if they want to just ban the machines where you enter your vote electronically, or also the machines that count paper ballots? 

    • #26
  27. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    EHerring (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November. But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    And until they clean up elections, we should make that claim. Let their tactics create headaches.

    Once people are in the habit of believing that every loss is the result of fraud, I don’t know that you can make elections clean enough to restore their faith.  Some people are going to believe what they want, no matter how improbable.  Last week I had lunch with a friend who claims that the vast majority of black people in Minneapolis – yes, Minneapolis – voted for Trump in 2016, but the count was illegitimate.

    • #27
  28. Stina Member
    Stina
    @CM

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    EHerring (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November. But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    And until they clean up elections, we should make that claim. Let their tactics create headaches.

    Once people are in the habit of believing that every loss is the result of fraud, I don’t know that you can make elections clean enough to restore their faith. Some people are going to believe what they want, no matter how improbable. Last week I had lunch with a friend who claims that the vast majority of black people in Minneapolis – yes, Minneapolis – voted for Trump in 2016, but the count was illegitimate.

    At this point, griping about extreme views seems unnecessary.

    After this election and listening more to black voices that are not coming through HULU and Netflix, I don’t think expecting minority districts have a massive fraud problem is out of the question.

    We talk a lot here about how on earth they can keep voting for the same people who are destroying their communities over and over and over again, never even considering to take a chance on a Republican ever. I mean, what kind of social pathologies exist where the majority keep supporting these incompetents?

    But then you learn that the GOP has been functionally blocked from inquiring about fraud for 40 years because of a previous attempt to look into fraud in minority districts?

    How bad do you suppose fraud effort in these districts could get in 40 years of no accountability?

    I might not believe that Trump won a landslide among blacks, but I definitely do not think he lost among them as badly as is being claimed. And I’m almost willing to bet that the assumptions we white conservatives are carrying around about black voters is based on a fraudulent voting history.

    • #28
  29. Mark Camp Member
    Mark Camp
    @MarkCamp

    EHerring (View Comment):

    Randy Weivoda (View Comment):

    I am not a fortune teller, so I cannot claim to know how many wins and losses each party will have in November. But I will make this prediction: Trust is at such a low level that many, many supporters of losing candidates (from either party) will claim that their guy actually won, but the election was stolen.

    And until they clean up elections, we should make that claim. Let their tactics create headaches.

    Thus saith many supporters of losing candidates (from either party).

    Randy has it dead right.

    (Please don’t hear what I’m not saying. I’m not implying that those who say it who are Republicans are wrong.)

    • #29
  30. GlennAmurgis Coolidge
    GlennAmurgis
    @GlennAmurgis

    Inflation is hitting people hard – I don’t see how this is going to stop the election  – this will be the biggest issue

    • #30
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