Projection: Youngkin Defeats McAuliffe in Virginia Governor’s Race (w/ Updates)

 

Original post (8:37 pm ET): Decision Desk, which has offered the most reliable early calls in the past several election cycles, projects that Republican Glenn Youngkin has defeated Democrat Terry McAuliffe in Virginia’s gubernatorial election. Dave Wasserman, elections guru for the Cook Political Report called the race for Youngkin a few minutes earlier. Henry Olson of the Ethics and Public Policy Center has also called the race. Media organizations are likely to follow soon.

They made the call with 47 percent of the vote in and Youngkin carrying a remarkable 10 percentage point lead. Joe Biden won the commonwealth one year ago by 10 percentage points.

GOP candidates Winsome Sears (Lt. Gov.) and Jason Miyares (A.G.) have earned numbers similar to Youngkin, so both are expected to win.

Update (10:37 p.m. ET): Two full hours after all the leading election gurus called the race, the legacy media still refuses to admit Youngkin won.

Update (10:47 p.m. ET): The Democrats have lost control of Virginia’s House of Delegates.

Update (12:34 a.m. ET): It’s over. Youngkin won.

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  1. Nanocelt TheContrarian Member
    Nanocelt TheContrarian
    @NanoceltTheContrarian

    That’s why they didn’t meet the 8 pm early vote counting deadline in Fairfax. They’re going all out to “find” enough votes in Fairfax after all the rest of the votes are counted to put them over the top. A trick as old as time (see Johnson, Lyndon, 1948 Senate primary, Alice, Texas, precinct 13). Pappy Daniels could explain it easily, though such as Brit Hume are “perplexed” and can’t explain what’s happened in Fairfax.

    will we ever see a non fraudulent election in America?

    • #1
  2. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Live Chat, please.

    • #2
  3. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Excellent news.  The secret sauce is that Glenn Youngkin never, ever appeared with Donald Trump.  Youngkin thanked Trump for his endorsement, but kept his distance.  There are literally no pictures of them together.  And Trump was willing to stay away to his credit.  I am thrilled by this election result. 

    • #3
  4. Nohaaj Coolidge
    Nohaaj
    @Nohaaj

    If this holds up, I would like to note that it was @soupguy Kelly who first and consistently said it was possible on these pages.  

    • #4
  5. 9thDistrictNeighbor Member
    9thDistrictNeighbor
    @9thDistrictNeighbor

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Excellent news. The secret sauce is that Glenn Youngkin never, ever appeared with Donald Trump. Youngkin thanked Trump for his endorsement, but kept his distance. There are literally no pictures of them together. And Trump was willing to stay away to his credit. I am thrilled by this election result.

    The only person obsessed with Trump in this campaign has been McAuliffe.

     

     

    • #5
  6. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Official Virginia election reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%). Youngkin has maintained a 10 point lead as the precincts reporting rose from 50% to 75%. The lead shrank to 9.4 points as the precincts rose to 80% and the expected vote* percentage rose to 71%. I expect that lead to continue shrinking, but there is an establishment expectation, reflected in the Decision Desk early call, that the Democrats will not be able to overcome the early lead.

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is estimated to be 80% of all “expected votes,”* so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

    * “Expected vote” is a recent term of art, a made up AP media guestimate of the total number of ballots expected to be cast.

    “Expected vote is an Associated Press estimate of how much of the vote in an election has been counted. It is informed by turnout in recent elections, details on votes cast in advance and – after polls close – early returns. The estimate may fluctuate as election officials report additional results and AP learns more about how many voters have cast a ballot.”

    • #6
  7. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Excellent news. The secret sauce is that Glenn Youngkin never, ever appeared with Donald Trump. Youngkin thanked Trump for his endorsement, but kept his distance. There are literally no pictures of them together. And Trump was willing to stay away to his credit. I am thrilled by this election result.

    The only person obsessed with Trump in this campaign has been McAuliffe.

     

     

    Exactly.  Youngkin talked about the future and not the past.  That’s the secret sauce.

    • #7
  8. ToryWarWriter Thatcher
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Live Chat, please.

    I did put together a post on the member feed instead of the chat.  But yeah missing it tonight.

    • #8
  9. Nanocelt TheContrarian Member
    Nanocelt TheContrarian
    @NanoceltTheContrarian

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

     

    Prediction:  McAuliffe will never concede.

    • #9
  10. J Climacus Member
    J Climacus
    @JClimacus

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

    City of Richmond is only 10% in. Republican areas should have held their vote. Now the Dems know how many votes need to be manufactured.

    UPDATE: Just checked and its now 21% in. Turnout seems to be very low. This election might be beyond the margin of fraud.

    • #10
  11. ToryWarWriter Thatcher
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    J Climacus (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

    City of Richmond is only 10% in. Republican areas should have held their vote. Now the Dems know how many votes need to be manufactured.

     

    One county cant manufacture this amount of vote.  Its a blowout, its very hard to steal a blowout.  If this was a 51-49 race I would be more worried.  But 55 45.  

    They would have needed 3 million mail ins, they only have 1.1 million and thats statewide.  

    • #11
  12. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    9thDistrictNeighbor (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Excellent news. The secret sauce is that Glenn Youngkin never, ever appeared with Donald Trump. Youngkin thanked Trump for his endorsement, but kept his distance. There are literally no pictures of them together. And Trump was willing to stay away to his credit. I am thrilled by this election result.

    The only person obsessed with Trump in this campaign has been McAuliffe.

     

    Notice that it is the Youngkin campaign that made him own that and then dropped another video showing McAuliffe  positively invoking Donald Trump in the past.

     

    • #12
  13. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    9:25 pm

    2223 precincts of 2855

    81.96 % Precincts Reporting | 74% expected vote

    CandidateVotesPercent
    Glenn A. Youngkin
    Republican
    1,246,500 54.21%
    Terry R. McAuliffe
    Democratic
    1,036,170 45.06%

     

    • #13
  14. ToryWarWriter Thatcher
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    The Republican is currently leading in NEW JERSEY!!!

    • #14
  15. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):

    The Republican is currently leading in NEW JERSEY!!!

    That tracks with past decades’ similar elections. See 2009 rejection of the extreme Obama and the Democrat Congress. Same two states flipped to R and then there was a midterm Congressional wave election.

    However, the NJ results reflect only about 1/3 of precincts, and the lead is very small, way inside the margin of cheating, plus the Democrats have a 1 million voter registration advantage. I will be very pleasantly surprised if Ciattarelli squeaks by.

    New Jersey

    • #15
  16. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Nanocelt TheContrarian (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

     

    Prediction: McAuliffe will never concede.

    Stacy McAuliffe 

    • #16
  17. Kevin Creighton Contributor
    Kevin Creighton
    @KevinCreighton

    Congratulations to the Lincoln Project for their help in getting a Republican elected as Governor of Virginia.

    • #17
  18. Metalheaddoc Member
    Metalheaddoc
    @Metalheaddoc

    When will we know beyond a shadow of a doubt(fraud)? I am still worried. Why can’t Fairfax county just manufacture the needed votes like Dems always seem to do at the last moment? 

    • #18
  19. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy) Thatcher
    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Democracy)
    @GumbyMark

    Don’t understand how this could be happening after McAuliffe won the coveted Bill Kristol endorsement.  

    • #19
  20. ToryWarWriter Thatcher
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    Guys.  It looks like Jersey is in play.  That should be a sign of hope.

    • #20
  21. Nanocelt TheContrarian Member
    Nanocelt TheContrarian
    @NanoceltTheContrarian

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Nanocelt TheContrarian (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

     

    Prediction: McAuliffe will never concede.

    Stacy McAuliffe

    After McAuliff’s speech to his supporter’s, prediction still holding. He was dancing on stage as if he were the winner. Seems to know something we don’t.

    • #21
  22. Kevin Creighton Contributor
    Kevin Creighton
    @KevinCreighton

    And dare I say it? (“Dare! Dare!“) New Jersey as well? 

    • #22
  23. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Nanocelt TheContrarian (View Comment):

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Nanocelt TheContrarian (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

     

    Prediction: McAuliffe will never concede.

    Stacy McAuliffe

    After McAuliff’s speech to his supporter’s, prediction still holding. He was dancing on stage as if he were the winner. Seems to know something we don’t.

    Let’s hope that McAuliffe’s behavior is a result of them upping his meds for the evening. 

    • #23
  24. Kevin Creighton Contributor
    Kevin Creighton
    @KevinCreighton

    Agree 100%. 

    • #24
  25. Clifford A. Brown Contributor
    Clifford A. Brown
    @CliffordBrown

    Kevin Creighton (View Comment):

    Agree 100%.

    There is no such thing as “normal movement against the president’s party.” Small-N, very small-N problem. The polling data and the issues effectively raised matter. Nice try by Micah Cohen trying to dismiss this and explain away the election as merely some law of American political cycles.

    Murphy did not alienate parents, as McAuliffe did and then doubled down. There were no regional and national stories about outrageous conduct by NJ school boards intersecting with girls’ safety and racist indoctrination. Ciattarelli stayed on taxes as his big winning issue. He is in great danger of losing late on Election Night. Youngkin went hard on parents’ rights and education. AG Garland helped with his Stazification of federal law enforcement against parents.

    NEW JERSEYGovernor – General70.24 % Precincts Reporting | 64% expected voteNov. 02, 2021 11:08 pm

    Party Name Votes Vote %  
    GOP Ciattarelli, Jack 880,772 51.17%  
    Dem Murphy, Philip i 827,608 48.08%  
    Ind Hoffman, Madelyn 5,277 0.31%  
    Ind Mele, Gregg 5,012 0.29%  
    Ind Kuniansky, Joanne 2,487 0.14% 

     

    • #25
  26. DaveSchmidt Coolidge
    DaveSchmidt
    @DaveSchmidt

    Need to factor in an extra 2% to account for corruption.  

    • #26
  27. ToryWarWriter Thatcher
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    I said it on my thread.  And now saying it here.  Republicans take New Jersey.  Game over.

    • #27
  28. pooryorick Member
    pooryorick
    @pooryorick

    This is a good night.  But just a comment on coverage:  what in the heck is Fox News thinking not making the call in Virginia? Its getting embarrassing watching Bill Hemmer come up with reasons why they haven’t called it. One of the counties with significant votes left to post is running 55% Youngkin for goodness sake. 

    I can’t help but remember Election 202o Fox called Arizona for Biden with like 30% of the vote in. I was giving them 1 more chance. 

    • #28
  29. BDB Coolidge
    BDB
    @BDB

    Metalheaddoc (View Comment):

    When will we know beyond a shadow of a doubt(fraud)? I am still worried. Why can’t Fairfax county just manufacture the needed votes like Dems always seem to do at the last moment?

    2037

    • #29
  30. Gary Robbins Reagan
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    DaveSchmidt (View Comment):

    Nanocelt TheContrarian (View Comment):

    Clifford A. Brown (View Comment):

    Official reporting of unofficial results at 8:50 PM shows Youngkin with a 10 point lead and 2043 precincts of 2855 reporting (74.7%).

    The Virginia governor’s race vote total is about 65% of all expected votes, so there is still room for ballot dumping from Democrat strongholds. See this important disclaimer on the Virginia state election page:

    Absentee ballots may be accepted until noon on November 5th. Therefore, results are incomplete. Results will be certified on November 15th.

    Therein lies the opportunity to still steal the election. However, if the Election Day results, including early voting, make up a large enough percentage of the “expected vote,” the steal may well be deterred as just too obvious.

     

    Prediction: McAuliffe will never concede.

    Stacy McAuliffe

    Donald John McAuliffe

    • #30