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An Estimate of Excess COVID Deaths Resulting from Non-Vaccination
I’ve put together a calculation of the number of excess COVID deaths over the past month that have resulted from non-vaccination. Obviously, this calculation is only an estimate and relies on certain assumptions.
The algebra on this is fairly easy, though I won’t bore you with the derivation (which would be difficult to display without special text features anyway). If:
- n = number of deaths from COVID
- IRR = incident rate ratio for death from COVID (i.e. the ratio of the death rates among the unvaccinated and the vaccinated)
- PV = the percentage of the population that is vaccinated
Then the number of deaths among the vaccinated (DV) is: DV = n x PV / (PV + ((1-PV) x IRR)).
The number of deaths among the unvaccinated (DU) is: DU = n – DV
The number of excess deaths among the unvaccinated (DE) is: DE = DU (1 – 1/IRR)
The latest estimate that I’ve seen of the IRR is 11.3, from this CDC report. This means that an unvaccinated person is 11.3 times more likely to die from Covid than a vaccinated person. The CDC reports (here) that the national vaccination rate (PV) is 53.8% of the entire population, 64.9% of the population aged 18 or older, and 82.5% of the population aged 65 and over. As I suspect that Covid deaths continue to be concentrated among older people, I used two PV figures for my estimate: 65% and 80%. (Note that in these calculations, a higher PV figure results in a lower number for excess deaths among the unvaccinated, so these are conservative figures.)
Finally, I used Worldometer (here) as a source for Covid deaths, selecting the one-month period from August 12 to September 11. I calculated that a total of 39,384 deaths were reported in this period.
Here are the results, which do differ depending on the vaccination rate (PV) that I assumed for the calculation.
Assuming 65% vaccination (PV=0.65): Deaths among the vaccinated (DV) is 5,559; deaths among the unvaccinated (DU) is 33,825; excess deaths among the unvaccinated (DE) is 30,832.
Assuming 80% vaccination (PV=0.80): Deaths among the vaccinated (DV) is 10,296; deaths among the unvaccinated (DU) is 29,088; excess deaths among the unvaccinated (DE) is 26,513.
As a sensitivity analysis, I also ran the calculation for a somewhat lower death figure (38,000) and a somewhat lower vaccine effectiveness (IRR=10). This yielded estimates of excess deaths among the unvaccinated of 24,429-28,843. Obviously, these are estimates, so while I report the precise figures determined by my calculations (to the nearest whole number), I think that these figures should be interpreted as a reasonable range.
Based on these figures, I think that it’s reasonable to conclude that about 24,000 to 30,000 Americans died of COVID, during the month ending 9/11/2021, because they were not vaccinated. That’s about 8-10 times the death toll from the actual 9/11. Another way of thinking about it is that we’ve had a 9/11-worth of death every 3-4 days over the past month, due to individual decisions not to be vaccinated.
The vaccinations may have caused other problems, as there are some side effects, and there may be future side effects.
This death toll probably explains the President’s actions in mandating vaccination in a number of circumstances. You may or may not agree with his decision as a policy matter, but I think that it is important to understand the death toll that he probably considered in making his decision.
For the record, I disagree with the President’s decision about vaccine mandates. If people prefer to risk death from Covid rather than take a chance on vaccination, I would respect that decision. I respect the decision of the 24,000-30,000 Americans who, by my estimate, died during the past month or so as a result of their decision not to be vaccinated.
If I were in charge, I would not require anyone to be vaccinated. I would reopen everything including schools, put an end to all mask requirements everywhere, report the facts, and continue to offer free vaccination to any American who wants it.
Two other related points:
- The Worldometer graphs for both cases and deaths suggest that we’re past the peak of the current wave, and things are going to get better over the next month or two. No guarantees, but this seems to be the trend.
- There is some evidence that the efficacy of the vaccines diminishes over time. The CDC is now recommending a booster shot for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, 8 months after their second shot, for people who are moderately to severely immunocompromised. FDA approval of this recommendation is pending. If this recommendation remains in effect, I will plan to get a booster shot myself, next January.
For those of you who are not vaccinated, I do urge you to do consider getting the shot, for the sake of your own health. Well, with some caveats. We don’t have a precise figure for risks and benefits, but my general sense is that you should probably get the shot if you’re over 40; that it’s a close call if you’re 25-40; and that you shouldn’t get the shot if you’re under 25.
However, each of you has to weigh the risks and benefits, and I will respect your decision. I hope that this information proves helpful.
Published in Healthcare
It may even be that the primary ingredients remain unchanged but they added or removed or changed something else in a way that can be separately patentable. Maybe by making it “gluten-free” or something.
Unlikely to be true:
1)the Pfizer compound has been in development for many years- https://cen.acs.org/acs-news/acs-meeting-news/Pfizer-unveils-oral-SARS-CoV/99/i13
2)ivermectin formula-C47H72O14
pfizer formula- C23H32F3N5O4
very different
structure- ivermectin. http://www.chm.bris.ac.uk/motm/ivermectin/ivermectinh.htm
Pfizer- https://cen.acs.org/acs-news/acs-meeting-news/Pfizer-unveils-oral-SARS-CoV/99/i13
3) Clay et al, who did the studies on ivermectin do not think it acts via protease inhibition but by inhibiting the importin (IMP) α/β receptor, which is responsible for transmitting viral proteins into the host cell nucleus.
It’s a multi-faceted rock with many enzymatic active sites. Call it what you will.
These are chemical formulas? What does that mean exactly?–23 carbons, 32 hydrogens, 3 flourines, 5 nitrogens, 4 oxygens for the Pfizer one?
And are these formulas for the drug or just for a main ingredient?
Clearly the name for it is “knife”. And knives may be used for just one thing. Cutting. Forget about the screwdriver, the hack saw and the corkscrew, the FDA says it’s just a knife. :)
It’s a horse knife, at that.
I’m not familiar with that term.
Just riffing on Ivermectin “horse paste” rants.
WorldOmeter.info has this, Aug 27. I use Covidestim.org, because I look at state data and Rt. The important thing is that Joe’s 90-day-to-implement mandate is already too late.
Thanks for proving my point. I said it hard to reconcile an 11x reduction of severity by vaccination against the Israel data, which shows about a 3x reduction in severity. 3x much less than 11x. I guess I do understand stats. God is good! On the Deace show he reviewed hospitalization data for many states and 2x to 3x reduction seems typical for vaccinated folks.
I expect that’s probably more like 1/2 to 1/3rd reduction. You can’t really have a 2x or 3x “reduction” like that.
Think about it. What is a 3x reduction from 30? -60? Impossible. But a 1/2 reduction would be down to 15, and a 2/3rd reduction would be to 10.
1/3 is a 3x reduction if you invert it.
Oh. I was thinking it was an Olympic gymnastics move.
I don’t understand what you’re talking about. We don’t have measures of degrees of severity in that table. We just have one category: severe. So how do you see a 3x reduction in severity?
Hardly proving your point- more like proving mine b/c again you do not properly analyze the statistics being presented. That is the overall data-if you adjust for age the reduction is more dramatic b/c the elderly are more likely to get sick-“After accounting for the vaccination rates and stratifying by age groups, from these same data we can see that the vaccines retain high effectiveness (85-95%) vs. severe disease, showing that when it comes to preventing severe disease, the Pfizer vaccine is still performing very well vs. Delta, even in Israel from whence the most concerning data have arisen.”
https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
vaccine deniers typically misrepresent the data either misunderstanding the VAERS data (5000 DEATHS FROM THE VAX!) or by failing to adjust for age and vaccine status in looking at the hospital data- death & hospitalization rate is heavily influenced by age. In the hospital I work in we have had deaths in healthy UNVACCINATED ~30 year olds and currently expect 2 more. The death and hospitalizations are running 80-90% unvaccinated even though more than 1/2 the population is vaccinated. Our COVID census in early June was 0, now it is >100.
Every drug has risks and trade offs
People should not be mandated to take it to keep their jobs.
The people going to the hospital are mostly, by mostly a lot, unvaccinated. I have that from people I know working in the ER talking to patients. That is not a CDC Stat.
We now are at a time where the vaccination clan is using force and fear, and the antivaccination clan is using fear.
Just do what you think is best for you.
By raw numbers between vaccinated and unvaccinated. To your question, how do we know enough to even classify as severe?
And the pro vaxxers are just as disingenuous with how they lie with statistics, such as hospitalized being predominantly admitted for non-Covid reasons.
So it’s good to see we all have human faults. Now stop telling me what I should and should not do and who I should and should not trust.
And what that is, as a general rule, you know best. If it’s not you, it’s your wife, parents, or doctor.
It’s probably not Fauci.
Who told you what to do? I never have backed mandates-but I do push back against misinformation
Big increase in pregnant COVID patients (~all unvaccinated) with high rates of fetal demise &/or premature birth-
“Currently we are investigating eight reports of pregnant women who have died within the past several weeks, all of whom are unvaccinated,” Dobbs added, according to the Sun Herald.
The state has also seen a devastating twofold increase in the rate of fetal deaths during COVID-19. Since the beginning of the pandemic, there have been 73 fetal deaths in Mississippi.”
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/94529
“Physicians from the division of maternal-fetal medicine at the University of Alabama at Birmingham (UAB) recently reported that 39 pregnant women with COVID-19 had been admitted to their hospital over the month of August. Of this group, 10 were admitted to the ICU and seven are currently on ventilators.
In an average year — not during a pandemic — it’s not uncommon for UAB’s ICU to see one or two pregnant patients a month, said Akila Subramaniam, MD, in a virtual discussion. But, on top of these more routine cases, the ICU has seen “almost a five-fold increase” in the number of pregnant patients needing intensive care….UAB has reported that two pregnant COVID-positive patients died at the hospital; six have lost their babies during their second trimester, and three have lost their babies during their third trimester.”
…
https://www.medpagetoday.com/special-reports/exclusives/94193
but of course just fear mongering- or is it fact mongering?
reassuring data on spontaneous abortions and the vax:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2784193
When you say unvaccinated, do you include women who have gotten two vaccine injections but less than two weeks have passed since the second injection?
Typically you are not considered fully vaccinated until 2 weeks post completion of the 2nd dose b/c the vaccine can’t magically make the immune system do impossible feats. If your immune system worked in a day or so, you wouldn’t have needed the vaccine in the 1st place.
So yes? So you are considering them unvaccinated if they’ve had one or two vaccines?
What? When you say unvaccinated, do you include women who have gotten two vaccine injections but less than two weeks have passed since the second injection?
The two weeks issue is sticky. Obviously there should be four categories, not two:
no shot
one shot
two shots
two shots plus two weeks
When Bill Gates was designing the microchip for the vaccine, he should have included a little bell that would ring when maximum immunity was achieved. That way, we wouldn’t have to guess at when someone can really be considered “vaccinated.”
Of course, it would be difficult to hear a tiny bell deeply embedded in your shoulder muscle. Perhaps it would be better to have the microchip send out a little shock, instead, which causes the person to spontaneously shout “Ding!” at the moment of immunity.
Something to consider for the boosters.
It isn’t me doing the talking-so I cannot be sure-people can be imprecise with their words. Typically you are”partially vaccinated” some time after recieving the1st dose (of the mRNA vax)until 2 weeks post the second dose (which makes perfect sense immunologically-the immune response takes time). The study for Pfizer showed the vaccine took >10 days to provide protection. The reports from Alabama on the pregnant patients say “nearly all unvaccinated or partially vaccinated”. The obstetrical report from Mississippi say “unvaccinated”. Ob-Doctors from NYU:””We’ve not had a fully vaccinated patient in the ICU”. Johns Hopkins: “We are also just starting to see an increase again in the number of COVID patients that are pregnant being admitted to ICUs. … “All of them [are] unvaccinated”. In any event it is clear that it is RARE for a fully vaccinated pregnant women to get critically ill with COVID- their rate of severe illness is much lower than the unvaccinated.
…
COVID patients or patients with COVID?
The claims that people are with COVID rather than sick from it is just sheer lunacy. You do not admit pregnant women to the ICU for the fun of it.