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An Estimate of Excess COVID Deaths Resulting from Non-Vaccination
I’ve put together a calculation of the number of excess COVID deaths over the past month that have resulted from non-vaccination. Obviously, this calculation is only an estimate and relies on certain assumptions.
The algebra on this is fairly easy, though I won’t bore you with the derivation (which would be difficult to display without special text features anyway). If:
- n = number of deaths from COVID
- IRR = incident rate ratio for death from COVID (i.e. the ratio of the death rates among the unvaccinated and the vaccinated)
- PV = the percentage of the population that is vaccinated
Then the number of deaths among the vaccinated (DV) is: DV = n x PV / (PV + ((1-PV) x IRR)).
The number of deaths among the unvaccinated (DU) is: DU = n – DV
The number of excess deaths among the unvaccinated (DE) is: DE = DU (1 – 1/IRR)
The latest estimate that I’ve seen of the IRR is 11.3, from this CDC report. This means that an unvaccinated person is 11.3 times more likely to die from Covid than a vaccinated person. The CDC reports (here) that the national vaccination rate (PV) is 53.8% of the entire population, 64.9% of the population aged 18 or older, and 82.5% of the population aged 65 and over. As I suspect that Covid deaths continue to be concentrated among older people, I used two PV figures for my estimate: 65% and 80%. (Note that in these calculations, a higher PV figure results in a lower number for excess deaths among the unvaccinated, so these are conservative figures.)
Finally, I used Worldometer (here) as a source for Covid deaths, selecting the one-month period from August 12 to September 11. I calculated that a total of 39,384 deaths were reported in this period.
Here are the results, which do differ depending on the vaccination rate (PV) that I assumed for the calculation.
Assuming 65% vaccination (PV=0.65): Deaths among the vaccinated (DV) is 5,559; deaths among the unvaccinated (DU) is 33,825; excess deaths among the unvaccinated (DE) is 30,832.
Assuming 80% vaccination (PV=0.80): Deaths among the vaccinated (DV) is 10,296; deaths among the unvaccinated (DU) is 29,088; excess deaths among the unvaccinated (DE) is 26,513.
As a sensitivity analysis, I also ran the calculation for a somewhat lower death figure (38,000) and a somewhat lower vaccine effectiveness (IRR=10). This yielded estimates of excess deaths among the unvaccinated of 24,429-28,843. Obviously, these are estimates, so while I report the precise figures determined by my calculations (to the nearest whole number), I think that these figures should be interpreted as a reasonable range.
Based on these figures, I think that it’s reasonable to conclude that about 24,000 to 30,000 Americans died of COVID, during the month ending 9/11/2021, because they were not vaccinated. That’s about 8-10 times the death toll from the actual 9/11. Another way of thinking about it is that we’ve had a 9/11-worth of death every 3-4 days over the past month, due to individual decisions not to be vaccinated.
The vaccinations may have caused other problems, as there are some side effects, and there may be future side effects.
This death toll probably explains the President’s actions in mandating vaccination in a number of circumstances. You may or may not agree with his decision as a policy matter, but I think that it is important to understand the death toll that he probably considered in making his decision.
For the record, I disagree with the President’s decision about vaccine mandates. If people prefer to risk death from Covid rather than take a chance on vaccination, I would respect that decision. I respect the decision of the 24,000-30,000 Americans who, by my estimate, died during the past month or so as a result of their decision not to be vaccinated.
If I were in charge, I would not require anyone to be vaccinated. I would reopen everything including schools, put an end to all mask requirements everywhere, report the facts, and continue to offer free vaccination to any American who wants it.
Two other related points:
- The Worldometer graphs for both cases and deaths suggest that we’re past the peak of the current wave, and things are going to get better over the next month or two. No guarantees, but this seems to be the trend.
- There is some evidence that the efficacy of the vaccines diminishes over time. The CDC is now recommending a booster shot for those who received the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine, 8 months after their second shot, for people who are moderately to severely immunocompromised. FDA approval of this recommendation is pending. If this recommendation remains in effect, I will plan to get a booster shot myself, next January.
For those of you who are not vaccinated, I do urge you to do consider getting the shot, for the sake of your own health. Well, with some caveats. We don’t have a precise figure for risks and benefits, but my general sense is that you should probably get the shot if you’re over 40; that it’s a close call if you’re 25-40; and that you shouldn’t get the shot if you’re under 25.
However, each of you has to weigh the risks and benefits, and I will respect your decision. I hope that this information proves helpful.
Published in Healthcare
I almost posted the links to CICP and PREP Act earlier, but would not have been as thorough. I had not found the list of claims. I suspect we don’t see much of this in the news as it would be useful information.
Good God do you not understand statistics at all? In Israel the VAST majority are vaccinated, therefore if the vaccine were ineffective, the vast majority of the hospitalized would be vaccinated, the actual stats in Israel:
MALONE DID NOT INVENT THE mRNA VACCINE! In 1989, Malone published a paper titled “Cationic liposome-mediated RNA transfection.” While this paper is an example of his important contribution to the then-emerging field, it does not make him the inventor of mRNA vaccines. IT IS TOTALLY BOGUS TO CLAIM HE INVENTED THE mRNA VACCINE
No vaccine “kicks in” immediately- it takes time for the immune response to occur-if our immune system was as efficient as you require no one would ever die of COVID b/c our immune system would respond quick enough- but that obviously isn’t the case
Any piece of factual information to back up your wild claims about the Pfizer ivermectin pill? Or just more ridiculous conspiracy theories?
See, now, you learn something new every day, doncha?
Right.
You think your the only one that’s right.
Ivermectin is a protease inhibitor:
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7996102/
Pfizer is developing a pill that is a protease inhibitor:
https://www.pfizer.com/news/press-release/press-release-detail/pfizer-initiates-phase-1-study-novel-oral-antiviral
We see example after example, even right here on Ricochet, where students, engineers, writers, etc, seem to be better informed than actual physicians who we are somehow expected to blindly trust on matters that could be life or death.
I agree with parts of what you say, but I thought the “best and brightest” get saline. :)
So then all vaccines will get liability wavers? Or just the minimally-tested ones.
I know I got full strength death juice when I got my shots. No saline for me. Pfizer 1 and 2 were on Thursdays. Both of the took me out Fri, Sat, Sun.
They say most people get hit by the second one — both got me, but the second was worse.
If I start growling a tail or developing the ability to see across time and space, I’ll let you know.
Lesson learned? Got your shots on a Monday.
My left shoulder was sore for two days with the first Moderna shot; then my right shoulder was sore for one day with the second shot.
My sister-in-law told me she had no symptoms at all. “Well, they have to give the placebo to somebody,” I said.
According to 42 U.S. Code § 300aa–22, “No vaccine manufacturer shall be liable in a civil action for damages arising from a vaccine-related injury or death associated with the administration of a vaccine after October 1, 1988, if the injury or death resulted from side effects that were unavoidable even though the vaccine was properly prepared and was accompanied by proper directions and warnings.” https://www.newsweek.com/fact-check-are-pharmaceutical-companies-immune-covid-19-vaccine-lawsuits-1562793
I guess so.
Hmmm, what if the instructions said not to give it to the person who was injured or died because of some other issue they have, but the dr or pharmacist just didn’t read the directions/warnings or ignored them or didn’t care? Does that make it “avoidable?” Or is that still “unavoidable?” might be separate court cases about THAT…
I’d argue that it does. The liability falls on the pharmacist, not the pharmaceutical company.
Ivermectin is not a protease inhibitor-it may have such effects but that isn’t its predominant mechanism of action-nor current clinical use. Furthermore, if it’s efficacy is similar to HCQ and Remdesivir than you would think it will not prove to be very effective- as they have been disappointing to date. An important consideration is the dose required to achieve the effects of viral inhibition-If you read the article you have linked you will the authors state that “The study depicts that a low dose of ivermectin (5 micromolar) can induce 93% reduction in viral RNA from released virion and 99.8% reduction in cell-associated/unreleased virion after 24 h of incubation”. However, that level of ivermectin is in fact NOT LOW DOSE-as others have noted-“An important controversial point to consider in any rationale is the 5 µM required concentration to reach the anti-SARS-CoV-2 action of ivermectin observed in vitro,17 which is much higher than 0.28 µM, the maximum reported plasma concentration achieved in vivo with a dose of approximately 1700 µg/kg (about nine times the FDA-approved dosification).24 25 In this sense, basic fundamentals for assessing ivermectin in COVID-19 at a clinical level appear to be insufficient”(https://ebm.bmj.com/content/early/2021/05/26/bmjebm-2021-111678)
as many have pointed out – the doses required are far beyond the typical clinical doses achieved in humans- if you give 9x the typical human dose you will only have about 1/18th of the level of ivermectin used in the lab experiment you have cited.
the Pfizer drug is a true protease inhibitor-in terms of that is its principle mechanism of action by design-to claim Pfizer is making an ivermectin pill is misleading.
All vaccines- the law was signed by Ronald Reagan
Not according to Susan Gray’s book about the early settlers in my part of Michigan.
Then what does this mean?
According to webmd, a protease inhibitor “blocks proteases in the body”, so Ivermecting “blocking proteases” makes it a “protease inhibitor”.
It doesn’t matter if we use it that way in the US or not. It has the mechanism to be used that way.
No, they don’t seem to be that.
Bricks or wrenches can be used as hammers but that doesn’t make them a hammer
Wow. This isn’t logical. I’m not talking about a hammer or a screwdriver. I’m talking about a Swiss Army knife that has a corkscrew, and Phillips head, a flat head, and a knife all packaged together. Multiple uses for different problems.
Ok, so the drug isn’t a protease inhibitor, but a chemical in it is. And Pfizer is making a new pill that includes a protease inhibitor–not, to my knowledge, the same one.
Setting aside for the moment what we are to make of the facts, are those not the facts?
Read the doses in the article- if a drug effect requires a dose far beyond that achievable in a human than the drug doesn’t work in any meaningful sense. At such doses the detrimental side effects will predominant over any hoped for beneficial effect. 100 mg IV lidocaine has anti-arrhythmic effects- 1 GM has a lethal effect- yet people do not go around typically saying that lidocaine is lethal. Ivermectin at clinical doses is an effective agent against parasites- it remains to be seen if it is an effective drug against COVID at clinically achievable blood levels- an in vitro experiment with 100x the typical blood level isn’t a very good indicator that it will be useful.
When I was a young teen, I had severe issues with a routine problem. Pharma companies made medications specifically for this issue but they never worked for me.
what did work was ONLY Tylenol pm. It’s primary purpose was to help people sleep through pain. But it was a muscle relaxant that was easily accessible to me, so I used it. And it worked. Just because a medication has a specific use doesn’t mean it lacks properties that can being used in other ways.
You fail to answer my question in a straightforward manner and are making baseless claims based on studies no one has conducted.
I have demonstrated why studies should be done. People who have looked closer at the Pfizer drug literature said they changed it enough from ivermectin to get it it’s own patent. Which is, again, convenient.
But the way you are throwing up articles of your own to combat points i wasn’t making leads me to think you didn’t read what I posted and that you actually didn’t expect me to have sources.
But is its protease inhibitor the same chemical as in ivermectin?
I do not know. I don’t think I have enough skill to a) find out the chemical make up of either or b) to decipher a chemical chart to figure out fine differences.
I mean, I read chemical charts on my prescriptions, but I missed my calling for chemistry.