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A False Narrative About Afghan Lithium?
I’ve heard a variety of claims lately about alleged lithium reserves in Afghanistan, and the supposed strategic disaster resulting from our abandonment of this critical resource to the Chinese. Just last night, I think that I overheard this claim in a podcast between Candace Owen and Nigel Farage. A comment on another post yesterday quoted some story claiming that Afghanistan was the “Saudi Arabia of lithium.”
I know almost nothing about lithium. I did generally recall:
- That it sits up there at the top left of the periodic table, just below hydrogen and above sodium.
- That it is used in modern rechargeable batteries.
- That in its dilithium form, it is critical to formation of a stable warp field (beam me up, Scotty!). Or maybe it’s critical to mixing the matter and antimatter (I’ll have to double-check with Geordi or Data).
- That it is used as a psychological medication.
It turns out that the psychopharmacological use involves treatment of bipolar disorder, also known as manic-depression. This is quite ironic, given the disconnection between the claims about the Great Afghan Lithium Treasure Trove and reality.
I. Executive Summary
We are being misled about Afghan lithium. I will detail the evidence of this below, but here is a summary.
The 2021 US Geological Survey report on lithium, reporting 2020 data, never mentions Afghanistan. There is zero Afghan production reported, zero Afghan reserves, zero Afghan resources. (I explain the technical distinction between reserves and resources later.)
Reported reserves total over 250 years of global production at the 2020 level. Reported resources total over 1,000 years of global production at the 2020 level. Reported lithium resources in the US alone total about 96 years of global production at the 2020 level.
The top five countries in reported lithium resources are, in order, Bolivia, Argentina, Chile, the US, and Australia. These five countries — us and four secure friendlies — have reserves totaling over 780 years of global production at the 2020 level. The top country is Bolivia, with about 24% of global lithium resources, and the source that I found lists the top 22 countries, down to a tie for 18th between Ghana, Austria, Finland, Kazakhstan, and Namibia, each with about 0.1% of global lithium resources. Again, Afghanistan is not on the list.
It remains possible that there are large lithium reserves and resources in Afghanistan. If so, they will be rather difficult to develop, and I don’t see how they could result in domination of the worldwide lithium market by the Afghans or some hypothetical ally like China.
So with these facts, I ask you: do you want to invest in a lithium mine in Afghanistan? If so, perhaps you should also look into the lucrative prospects of, as George Strait once sang, some oceanfront property in Arizona. And I’ll throw the Golden Gate in free.
II. Forbes: A Case Study in the False Narrative
There are many outlets reporting about the supposed “Saudi Arabia of lithium” now controlled by the Taliban. I’m going to pick on Forbes, because as you’ll see, they made this claim in an article this week, contradicting their own article from December of last year.
I’ll detail the USGS figures in the next section, but here figures on lithium production and lithium reserves in 2019, from this Forbes article in December 2020. The top 5 producers are:
- Australia, 52.9%
- Chile, 21.5%
- China, 9.7%
- Argentina, 8.3%
- Zimbabwe, 2.1%
These five countries accounted for 94.5% of global production in 2019. The US was in 7th place, producing 1.2%.
According to this Forbes article from last year, “the world is only producing a tiny fraction of its lithium reserves” and “[b]ased on 2019 production levels, known global lithium reserves would last more than 200 years.” The article lists the top 5 lithium reserves, by country, as:
- Chile, 55.5%
- Australia, 18.1%
- Argentina, 11.0%
- China, 6.5%
- US, 4.1%
This totals 95.2% of reported lithium reserves as of 2019.
Notice anything strange here? They don’t seem to mention that Great Afghan Lithium Treasure Trove. Afghanistan is not mentioned in the December 2020 Forbes article at all. The article concluded:
Given the abundance of lithium reserves and the current status of lithium production in their respective countries, it seems likely that Chile and Australia will remain the world’s lithium-production superpowers for the foreseeable future.
Was there something wrong with the folks at Forbes? Why did they overlook the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” in an article at the end of 2020?
But in this Forbes article on August 30, 2021 — four days ago — it reported that “Afghanistan is sitting on a gold mine. I don’t mean that figuratively.” It lists a variety of minerals, but the one highlighted is, you guessed it, lithium, about which it states in its second paragraph:
It’s believed to have so much lithium, an increasingly important metal that’s widely used in battery technology, that Afghanistan could one day be known as the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” according to a 2010 memo by the U.S. Department of Defense.
If you follow that link, you’ll find a Reuters “factbox” report from a couple of weeks ago (August 19), which links to a Reuters report from 2010, which says (without a link) that the New York Times reported that unnamed U.S. government officials said — according to the second Reuters link about what was supposedly stated by the NYT about the supposed statement of those anonymous government officials — that “Afghanistan could be holding $1 trillion of untapped mineral deposits including critical industrial metals such as lithium . . ..”
Right. That critical lithium that’s going to be in short supply and cripple the US and global economy even though, as I will detail in the next section, the U.S. alone has lithium resources totaling about 96 years of global production at current levels, and the top 5 countries — the US and four other secure, friendly countries — have lithium resources totaling over 780 years of global production at current levels.
Doesn’t this suggest to you that someone is misleading us? On to the USGS data.
III. The USGS Data on Lithium
I tracked down the 2021 US Geological Survey annual report on lithium for 2021, which reports information from 2019 and 2020 (here). Unfortunately, it withholds the figure for US production, “to avoid disclosing company proprietary data.” The remaining data is quite close to the Forbes report, though the USGS lists Brazil in 5th place rather than Zimbabwe. Here are the numbers for production (my calculations of percentages from the USGS data):
For 2019:
- Australia, 52.3%
- Chile, 22.4%
- China, 12.5%
- Argentina, 7.3%
- Brazil, 2.8%
For 2020:
- Australia, 48.7%
- Chile, 21.9%
- China, 17.0%
- Argentina, 7.5%
- Brazil, 2.3%
Note that these percentages exclude US production, which does appear small based on the Forbes figure.
The USGS report makes a distinction between “reserves” and “resources.” Reserves are akin to a “working inventory,” while resources (a larger figure) are concentrations of a material such that economic extraction is currently or potentially feasible. As I understand it, these figures vary over time based on new discoveries, new technologies, depletion of existing reserves, and changes in price. I’m going to report the “reserves” first.
First of all, don’t worry about a lithium shortage, Reported reserves total more than 250 times world production in 2020, and reported resources total more than 1,000 years of production at this level. Here are the top five countries by lithium reserves:
- Chile, 43.7%
- Australia, 22.3%
- Argentina, 9.0%
- China, 7.1%
- US, 3.6%
Afghanistan is not listed among the top 9 countries reported individually. The grand total of the reserves of the other countries, which would include Afghanistan, is 10.0%. Countries 6-9 in lithium reserves total 4.3% of total reserves, and are Canada, Zimbabwe, Brazil, and Portugal.
In addition to the information on reserves noted above, the report lists the resources of the top 23 countries. Total lithium resources total over 1,045 years of production at 2020 levels. The top 5, which account for 74.7% of the reported total, are:
- Bolivia, 24.4%
- Argentina, 22.5%
- Chile, 11.2%
- US, 9.2%
- Australia, 7.5%
US resources alone total about 96 years of total world production at the 2020 level. These top five countries total about 781 years of total world production at the 2020 level.
Guess which country is never mentioned in the USGS report on lithium? The supposed “Saudi Arabia of Lithium,” Afghanistan.
The lithium price reported by the USGS in 2020 ranged from about $71,000-$83,ooo per ton. Using $80,000, that’s a total of about $6.6 billion. If Aghanistan somehow took over all of global production, this revenue would increase their pitiful per-capita GDP of about $500 by approximately $175, without accounting for costs of extraction, infrastructure, or transportation.
IV. Analysis
You know the old saying, “a lie gets halfway around the world before the truth has a chance to get it’s pants on.” It looks like this one is often misattributed, but who cares. It’s true.
I trust that I have now demonstrated that the claims about the Great Afghan Lithium Treasure Trove are, shall we say, not substantiated. “Lie” is actually a pretty strong word, because I haven’t presented evidence that anyone repeating this false narrative knew that it was false. I think that this is how the media operates these days.
I’m sorry to keep sounding like Cassandra. We all need to be highly skeptical of media reports, especially when they support the latest media narrative.
On second thought, I’m not sorry about sounding like Cassandra. I do wish that people weren’t so credulous and misinformed.
Published in Foreign Policy
Thanks.
I seemed to recall that lithium deposits in Alaska are forbidden by Democrats. But lithium can be found in several other states.
After politics, cost-efficient extraction is another hurdle. But increases in demand and innovations of technology, pursuant to profit opportunities, alter those calculations. For example, deep-ocean drilling for fossil fuels in the Gulf of Mexico became more economical as politics and market incentives changed.
Lithium can also be extracted from seawater. But that is probably only economical for places like Saudi Arabia that already invest in desalination plants.
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Afghanistan Has Only One Hope: Lithium – National Interest
Two items:
The point is that the facts that you’ve laid out may be accurate, but they also may not paint the entire picture. Lastly, it is likely that our current level of Li consumption will grow exponentially. And, to the best of my knowledge it’s not recyclable. However, we will hopefully have extra-planet sources available before we run out here.
Did anyone keep track of opium exports from Afghanistan during US occupation? I remember we depressed production in the early years, as if it could only be used for heroin. Perhaps Afghans will revive that industry now.
No, the Taliban has a different idea.
This topic came up on a work network. One of the flyers of some survey missions starting in 2006 chimed in that he claimed billions of dollars on his performance write-ups. However, it was common knowledge among the aircrew and lead geologist that the minerals were inaccessible and unprofitable to mining. A paper reporting their findings was mentioned.
I provided the link to the USGS report. If you want to look into the technical issues relating to reserves and resources, that would be great. I don’t know myself, and I don’t find it particularly relevant, as there appears to be plenty of lithium.
On the second point, I did see some report about China either having (some) and seeking (other) ownership interests over lithium mines in other countries. I do not view this as a threat. You correctly note the need for a blue-water navy to effectively assert such claims, and while this is a long-term concern, it would cause problems much more important than lithium. I do not think that it is likely the China will have a navy able to dominate ours in the foreseeable future. We should take steps to counter this potential threat, irrespective of lithium issues. Oil is a lot more important, I think.
I’m going to push back a bit harder. This lithium issue is quite silly. Based on the USGS report — as I reported in the OP — worldwide lithium production is worth about $6.6 billion annually. That’s about 0.05% of China’s GDP and less than 0.01% of world GDP. It’s about one day of oil output, if I’m doing the calculation right.
(I’m not going to provide links on this — it’s based on Chinese GDP of about $14,7 trillion, world GDP of about $85 trillion, and oil production of about 94 million barrels/day at the current price of about $70/barrel).
One more thing. Extra-planet resources? Was this a joke based on my Star Trek references — which were jokes — or are you serious about space-mining?
Sorry to have to ask. There are so many ludicrous claims that are apparently presented seriously in the media that it’s getting hard to identify satire.
OK, yet another one more thing.
Is it too much to ask that you do a 10-second Google search before expressing an opinion on an issue about which you know absolutely nothing?
Here’s an EPA link advising recycling of lithium batteries.
Thank you Jerry for providing “the other side of the story”.
As I mentioned a few times in other posts, I trust nothing anymore, and I believe less.
There are several other materials in addition to lithium that are critical for wind/solar and batteries. See my post here:
https://chicagoboyz.net/archives/66042.html
…and the linked IEA report
Nice, thorough, credible post — as usual. Thanks.
As metallic resources go, lithium isn’t one I get exercised about. It isn’t the most common metal, though it is a little more common than, say, lead.
The Luddite in me thinks that most rapidly increasing applications of lithium battery technology are a net negative — most particularly in electric vehicles, alternative energy, and mobile computing devices in the hands of anyone under thirty. So that’s another reason I’m not worried about a lithium shortage. (Nor about a lead shortage, for that matter.)
Good points, Hank.
It looks like the projected increase in lithium demand is principally related to electric vehicle batteries. I suspect that the lithium industry will be able to keep up with the demand, but if they don’t, the result will be an inability to produce the number of electric vehicles necessary in light of various actual or anticipated mandates. This would likely force the repeal of such mandates, which I would prefer.
I think the true is likely in the middle. The media reporting is over hyping the potential of the minerals and you are likely under estimating the issue.
The USAG based on its work from over a decade ago, building on some work from the Russians from decades ago, has stated that there are vast non-energy (not oil-gas) deposits in the country.
The reason that these facts do not appear in any of your other USGA research can be found in your discussion of Reserves vs. Resources discussion. Afghanistan does not have Reserves or Resources or production. It has deposits, which are different. The idea behind Reserves and Resources is that they are currently feasible for extraction. A lot of the minerals in Afghanistan are not feasible for extraction. That does not mean that things will not change. Aside from security issues, a significant investment in energy and infrastructure would be needed to mine these areas. So China could theoretically make the investments needed to change the classification from deposit to Resource or reserve.
What would make this a good investment?
US policy makes an awful lot of the above discussion of demand and reserves out of date. “The US has 96 years of resources at 2020 production levels”. Things have changed a bit. Look at Biden’s agenda, that has been fully incorporated by the major Auto manufactures. GM says by 2035 it will only sell electric cars. Chrysler says 40% electric by 2030. Currently 7% of people in the US have an electric car or hybrid car. The shift to these vehicles in the US, Europe and China means that 2020 production figures will represent a very low mark. As there is more and more need for lithium and rare earth metals, the deposits (and needed investments) in Afghanistan will look more and more attractive.
https://www.wired.com/2010/06/no-the-military-didnt-just-discover-an-afghan-mineral-motherlode/
https://apnews.com/article/technology-joe-biden-business-environment-and-nature-economy-88fe6ca8e333f3d00f6d2e98c6652cea
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2021/06/07/todays-electric-vehicle-market-slow-growth-in-u-s-faster-in-china-europe/
If Biden wanted the Afghan lithium to become accessible to the world, he would have kept our troops there to protect it, so he could skim his 10% Big Guy fee.
The Big Guy has to payback China for “election services “, before going after new grift.
Lithium is an alkali metal like sodium and potassium. It is very reactive with water, usually producing a fire. It is used in a number of chemical processes, in thermonuclear weapons, as well as most high density batteries and lithium carbonate for mania.
Part of the issue is that Afghanistan has not been surveyed like most stable countries, so mineral quantities are estimates. I understand that you want to support isolationism, and I assume everything you say is directed to that goal, but you did not actually attack the original source and prove it false.
Afghan lithium deposits are the least compelling reason to stay I’ve heard so far.
No blood for batteries.
I agree. Reasons to stay include maintaining some semblance of civilization in what will become a brutal theocratic hell-hole without the security we provide. I’m not interested in Afghanistan’s natural resources. I am interested in opposing militant Islam whenever it’s practical to do so.
I read this article, Jerry and it doesn’t say that anyone can recycle lithium. It says that if we don’t recycle batteries we can never reclaim critical resources. But, again, it doesn’t say that lithium is specifically reclaimed.
Chile may be friendly, but China is gaining control over much of South America’s lithium.
Most of Albemarle’s largest American institutional shareholders are deeply connected to the CCP
It has long been observed that cities with low levels of naturally occurring lithium in their drinking water have less mental illness. Typical water content in those cities would have been a daily dose in the range of 1-3 mg/d. Therapeutic doses for bipolar disorder are in the range of 300-900 mg/d, but lithium probably has some stabilizing effect at much lower doses in subclinical cases of mood instability. Doses such as the one that was in 7-up.
Lithium is the expensive component in lithium batteries. Like most metals, it is relatively easy to recycle – it’s not that different from refining the metal from ore
Calm down with a Seven-up!
Au Contraire Jerry! I know you are trying oh so hard to make it seem Chairman Xi’s Billion Dollar Stooge Joe Biden’s exit from Afghanistan was not an unbelievably gynormous FusterCluk but it was on a gigantic scale so please give it up. It’s not only embarrassing by it makes you look like a damn traitor for defending this ridiculous betrayal.
Excerpted From International Business Daily and Marv Basilan” Biden Lets China Grab World Biggest Lithium Deposits with Botched Afghanistan Exit”:’
“The immediate consequences of U.S. President Joe Biden’s botched exit from Afghanistan may be just political but its economic impact will ripple across several advanced industries in the years to come. Biden may have just gifted China an opportunity to grab Afghanistan’s considerable reserves of rare earth metals, including the world’s largest lithium deposits, and cement its domination of the market for these crucial minerals.”
“Director of emerging market debt at asset management firm AllianceBernstein Shamaila Khan told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” that minerals in Afghanistan “can be exploited,” and with the Taliban now in control of those valuable resources, it is a “very dangerous proposition for the world.” Khan added that at this point, the international community should watch China closely if it seeks to become allies with the Taliban after the militant group captured Kabul on Sunday.
Afghanistan has large reserves of lithium, neodymium, silver, gold, mercury, and other valuable elements, said Ahmad Shah Katawazai, a former diplomat at the Afghan Embassy in Washington D.C. He said rare earths in the country were estimated to be valued between $1 trillion and $3 trillion last year. An internal Department of Defense memo in 2010 called Afghanistan “the Saudi Arabia of lithium.”
China is a dominant player in the global rare earths market and has used shadow curbs on their exports for leverage during trade frictions with other countries. Figures from the U.S. Geological Survey show that the world’s second-largest economy holds about 35% of global rare earth reserves. China’s ability to control Afghanistan’s reserves will further add to its ability to target advanced manufacturing industries of other countries during periods of trade and military friction. Additionally, it would open up a steady revenue opportunity for the Islamist terror group. The Taliban has already called China a “welcome friend” in Afghanistan.
Rare earth metals are important for most advanced industries, from electric vehicles to satellites. The Financial Times reported in February that Beijing is planning export curbs on rare earths in order to hobble U.S. defense manufacturing, including the F-35 stealth fighters. “
KEY POINTS
I’m broadly skeptical. Estimates of in-ground resources are notoriously inaccurate. The practical challenges to extraction in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan are unknown but probably high.
Again, I think there are good reasons to stay in Afghanistan and I wish we had. Lithium isn’t on my list.
A few days ago I believe Jerry you alleged in your ongoing defense of Chairman Xi’s bought and paid for Billion Dollar Traitor, Uncle Joe Biden, that the Taliban and China weren’t not that likely to become allies.
Oh well, another one of you memes just blown to smithereens:
Excerpted from Zerohedge and Dave Decamp at AntiWar.com:
“Taliban says Cbina will be Afghanistan’s Most Important Partner”
“Taliban spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid said in a recent interview that China will be Afghanistan’s “most important partner” as the new Taliban-led government is seeking infrastructure investments.
“China is our most important partner and represents a fundamental and extraordinary opportunity for us, because it is ready to invest and rebuild our country,” Mujahid told the Italian newspaper La Repubblica.”
“Mujahid said there are “rich copper mines in the country, which, thanks to the Chinese, can be put back into operation and modernized. In addition, China is our pass to markets all over the world.”
Afghanistan faces a potential economic crisis, and the new government is strapped for cash. After 20 years of waging war in the country, the US is now withholding billions in Afghan reserves to use as leverage over the Taliban.”
In it’s trilithium form, it can halt nuclear fusion in a star.
https://memory-alpha.fandom.com/wiki/Trilithium
I read it on the internet, so it’s gotta be true.
Does this say, “burns clear?”
Yes, on the one hand the article’s source article says:
but it goes on to say:
and:
Jerry cites the USCGeological Survey as if it is credible.
As with the FBI, CIA, NSA, and our damn military yada yada yada, virtually nothing is credible that comes out of the US Government these days. Give us some other sources. Yours are crap. Virtually every government agency is controlled by the Left and the Democrats – of course they would not contradict your talking points from Chairman Xi’s Billion Dollar bought and paid for Traitor/Lackey Joe Biden.
Henry: I’m broadly skeptical. Estimates of in-ground resources are notoriously inaccurate. The practical challenges to extraction in Taliban-controlled Afghanistan are unknown but probably high.
Well then how can you believe Jerry? Practical challenges to extraction? For the Chinese? You must be joking. The Chinese QE is estimated at 50 Trillion dollars. They can and have thrown money around like crazy and they will have no problem with the Taliban harassing their extraction like we and our western allies would.
The whole premise of Jerry’s post is pure crap. Another largely unsupported post that tries to deflect the preposterous behavior of the Biden Administration and it’s abject, treasonous betrayal of the American People.
Most commercial sources believe that there is a ton of Lithium and other rare minerals in Afghanistan which Jerry’s hero, the Traitor Joe Biden just handed to the Chinese who are now “Afghanistan’s most important partner” in the words of the Taliban.
Thanks for the discussion, everyone. I have a couple of responses.
OmegaPaladin, re #16: I’m not actually isolationist, and I don’t think that this was my motivation. I have another recent post calling my position “isolationist realism,” which is something close to Mearsheimer’s offshore balancing and Mead’s Jacksonianism. In any event, as far as I can tell from introspection, which may be colored by my own bias, it wasn’t a desire to support a foreign policy position that drove my conclusion about lithium in Afghanistan, but rather the reverse. The claims of mineral riches in Afghanistan seem quite dubious, and appear to have been offered by others for political reasons.
It was difficult to directly the “original source” of the claim that Afghanistan is the “Saudi Arabia of lithium,” because the original source appears to be rumor and innuendo, as I did document in the OP (to the extent that I was able to figure it out). The original source appears to be a NYT story about the claims of unidentified US government officials. As far as I can tell, there was a consensus among the foreign policy elites, right and left, about the Afghanistan intervention for 20 years, so it’s hard to see any motivation for information about any Afghan lithium resources to be suppressed.
Unsk: Your claims that I’m a traitor supporting Xi and Biden in their alleged conspiracy about the Afghanistan withdrawal is strange, because the fellow who convinced me (sort of) to support the withdrawal was actually President Trump. Back in the primaries, Trump’s opposition to the ongoing Afghan operation was one of the reasons that I didn’t like him, as I had supported the intervention and continued to do so in 2016. I decided to give Trump a chance, and eventually came to agree with his position. So if your claim is true, then I think that you need to add Trump to the Xi-Biden axis that you believe me to be treacherously supporting.
We were in Afghanistan for about 15 years under both the Bush and Obama administrations, both of which were supporting the ongoing intervention, yet I could find nothing but rumor about Afghan mineral wealth, with no apparent efforts to develop any of it. While spending $1-2 trillion to nation-build in Afghanistan, I would have expected some efforts to report upon and develop such mineral riches, if they existed. All that I could find was an anonymous rumor from 2010.