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We’re about 9 weeks into the Great American Shut Down and maybe, just maybe we’re starting to see a light at the end of this tunnel? To help us parse this, call on an actual scientist, our good friend from Stanford Medicine, Dr. Jay Bhattacharya who helped write the Santa Clara Study and the just released MLB study. We discuss where we are now, where we might be going, the strategies different states are employing, and yes, at bit of the politics around all of this. And will we see the return of college and pro sports any time soon? You’ll have to tune in for the answer to that one. Also, a Ricochet first time poster gets the highly-coveted, much sought after Lileks Post of The Week badge, and we pay tribute to the great Reverend Richard Penniman. He was built for speed and good golly, we’ll miss him.
Music from this week’s podcast: Long Tall Sally by Little Richard
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Nope, check the date. That was last week.
This week’s is in the podcast “notes”:
http://ricochet.com/756949/need-help-with-research/
It’s great for the actual procedure, but nothing to “enjoy.” Which is fine with me, I never felt a need to “enjoy” drugs, either recreationally or medically.
The best parts, procedure-wise, are that it works very quickly, and also wears off very quickly, without a lot of “grogginess.” They still don’t want you driving yourself home, though.
The procedure is nothing, just count backwards and then wake up, the discomfort is the day of starvation and preparation the day before.
Yeah. I was trying to come up with a joke that related this fact and Peter’s “get the all clear” comment earlier, but they all came across as too obscure.
On the mask thing, Dr. Lisa Brousseau, a national expert on respiratory protection and infectious diseases, and Dr. Margaret Sietsema, another expert on respiratory protection and assistant prof at the University of Illinois in Chicago, have both argued that broad mask use is not good public policy because there is no scientific evidence they are effective with SARS; they may result in those wearing masks having a sense of “false security” about social distancing, and–most importantly–they catch particulates that are larger only when a person is showing symptoms because the particulates are otherwise too small to be caught by most masks that are used by the general public.
You can look for their insights at the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP).
Of course, some doctors/experts interpret the research differently. They even argue about whether or not masks are useful only indoors or also outside.
For example, when asked for his expert opinion by a reporter, Henry Chambers, a professor in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the University of California, San Francisco, offered that there is “no compelling medical reason for people who are exercising outside and maintaining social distancing to wear a mask.”
A different doctor from Stanford said that an athlete can wear one around the neck to pull up as “an act of solidarity and courtesy” when going by others, though he noted the mask he wore when running got sweaty and leaked per the air he was exhaling.
An exercise researcher at the Mayo Clinic in Minnesota said he wears a bandanna on his bike, even though Richard Martinello, an associate professor of infectious disease at Yale is cited in the same article as contributing this little nugget: “studies done on the effectiveness of non-medical masks have generally failed to show much benefit.”
Dr. Jay said on this podcast he would wear a mask in public settings, and he would stick to take-out for the time being. But he also said if he was allowed to teach his students again in person, he would happily take the risk to himself of not wearing a mask, which implies mask-wearing has something to do with self-protection, since speaking with kids requires some face-to-face interaction… and if the “spread” thing was a giant concern, one would not want to breathe on his/her students.
I think the best message from the podcast was that millions of people will interpret the evidence on even masks in different ways, as we all live in different contexts. The evidence on this is not straightforward. It is very conflicting. If anyone says it is not, they are simply not looking at multiple experts. Therefore, individuals have to make decisions for themselves about how they read that evidence and what matters most to them in their lives.
If one feels a non-mask wearer is a threat… stay 6 feet away. Non-mask wearers… give mask wearers plenty of room.
Done! Boom!
:)
I don’t wear a mask. On the rare occasions when I am in a store (Mrs. Tabby does most of the shopping in our household) I go well out of my way to avoid getting near a masked person, especially if the nature of the mask conveys that the wearer is especially concerned about catching something. (I once came across a guy who was wearing gloves, an elaborate mask and goggles! I gave him a particularly wide berth.)
Based on the authorities you quote, there is little or no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of non-surgical masks in slowing the spread of this disease.
Your conclusion vaguely suggests the very opposite of what your post shows. It is extremely misleadingly written.
I’m sorry you feel misled.
People are quite welcome to post evidence that shows masks are awesome.
I suppose I erred in showing there’s plenty of evidence that some experts feel masks aren’t awesome because “proof for that” was requested in this thread, and when any was offered for that point of view, it was rejected as not valid since doctors who weren’t experts in infectious diseases–a neurologist, for example–were the people taking this position. (I gave experts in infectious diseases.)
But my larger point was quite sincere.
There are plenty of doctors who study infectious diseases who question the efficacy of masks, though there are also plenty who advise their use. We should be tolerant of each other’s choices–and respectful of each other’s space–because there are experts a plenty to support whatever point of view we as individuals wish to espouse.
Also consider the underlying goal. If herd immunity is the only way out, we don’t want healthy people to specifically avoid infection. We don’t want them to deliberately catch it, but – especially in the summer – we really do want the virus to “do it’s thing,” so to speak.
When experts disagree look at the DATA- and it favors masks. A few articles:
https://theconversation.com/masks-help-stop-the-spread-of-coronavirus-the-science-is-simple-and-im-one-of-100-experts-urging-governors-to-require-public-mask-wearing-138507
https://www.bmj.com/content/bmj/369/bmj.m1435.full.pdf
https://www.fosters.com/news/20200502/experts-wearing-mask-will-shorten-covid-19-pandemic-in-nh
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2843945/
Cool, @MiMac. There you go, @Markcamp. There are multiple experts who feel multiple things. I pointed to a few who think masks are not really great for all public wear based on various peer reviewed studies they’ve examined. Here is support for mask-o-ramas everywhere. :) Others have said plenty on either side. That’s a pretty balanced presentation.
I believe Americans are smart enough to read all of it and make up their own minds.
Yep. Which is why I said that in the lack of an overwhelming consensus, we err on the side of liberty. There are a lot of experts who think “the science is settled” on global warming, too. I wouldn’t stop them from using paper straws. I have a problem when they petition the government to force acceptance of their beliefs. I’ve said multiple times, wear a mask if it makes you feel better. I will not be wearing one, even to “just be polite.” It is not my responsibility to make sure everyone feels safe.
Was I the only one who thought it was odd that they interrupted a segment about scientific studies with a learned doc to do an advertising spot for….hair growth tonic? This struck me as “let’s take a break from talking about real medicine to talk about some fake medicine.”
Podcast of the week? Is that a thing?
True, true, but my husband was losing his hair in his twenties. And then there was Propecia. For the record, that works. Maybe hair tonic does, too? Hmmmmmm….. Someone find a study!!!!
No, you were not.
No, It’s Member Post of the Week.
Dr. Jay in one brief instant said something about evaluating the magnitude of the risk. For most of the rest of the podcast, he avoided making such a calculation. But one fact that has been underreported is that if you’re not very old and sick, CoViD-19 poses very little risk.
Nearly All NYC-Area COVID-19 Hospitalizations Had Comorbidities
The article doesn’t mention median age of the COVID-19 deaths, but given all of the public information about how the vast majority of NYC-area deaths have occurred in nursing homes, it’s likely very high, above 80 I suspect. Why isn’t that the starting place for every calculation? If very old sick people stay indoors as they should, I’m unclear how my wearing a mask in the suburban hardware store will save that very old sick person’s life. No one else is realistically threatened by infection from me. Children are, as a practical matter, immune. In one study of prison inmates, 90% of those who tested positive had no symptoms–if there is a resurgence, how will we know?
I’m frustrated that we’ve known all this for many weeks, during which time we’ve developed a popular culture of snitches and scolds, and not permitted the 98+% who are at little to no risk get on with their lives.
Except >100 million Americans have comorbidities…….that is a lot more than 2%
I’m a severe asthmatic, so I guess I’m in that 100 million. But I’ll worry about me. Go on. Do you. ;)
Amen to that. Same boat here. I’ll take care of myself, thanks.
Spots are scheduled long in advance of the date the recording. And also, we gotta pay the bills.
FWIW, people who have used this product says it works. Your mileage may vary.
That is appreciated. [Edited to correct my mistake] Severe asthmatics are at a higher risk of harm from a great many things and generally don’t expect society to turn itself on its head. The idea of individuals seeking individual solutions, however, has led to a great many wonderful and life-saving innovations.
I wish you had read what I wrote.
CoViD-19 isn’t a grave risk to everyone with chronic health issues. Only to those who – say it with me – are
Very old AND sick
To suggest otherwise isn’t supported by the evidence.
(This of course ignores the issue that CoViD-19 deaths might be significantly overreported, given the near universal presence of comorbidities, especially in the very old. Very old. Very old and sick.)
Umm. I’m not being sarcastic at all. I’m saying I am a person with a Serious co-morbidity, but I am quite happy to live my own life without asking for anyone else to alter their lives.
In other words, I am not anyone else’s problem. I can make my own solutions.
I am a bit fascinated by the idea that the intent was read as anything other than what I said.
With all this debate about public policy and conclusions to studies, something else caught my ear. I guess I’ve been watching too much LivePD on YouTube and thereby getting some weird suggestions, including videos with members of the Sovereign Citizen movement. So hearing Rob (@roblong) use the phrase “Sovereign Citizen” several times kind of surprised me. I hope this is just another case of a radical movement hijacking a perfectly good phrase.
COVID-19 side effect: LivePD addiction on YouTube
Oh. And I get @libertydefender’s point, too. I have factored the fact that I’m under 60 into my analysis of what risks are rational and what risks are irrational. Hence I wash my hands, don’t get close to coughing strangers, and try to have healthy habits. Pretty much exactly as I did pre-Covid.
I am much more careful, however, with my much older father who has a serious illness, to the point that I would not visit him after riding on a plane despite having not seen my folks for weeks.
One can make these sorts of calculations.
I thought of that, too. :)
But we all knew what he meant.
I’m sorry, Lois! I misread the name. That is very much my mistake, which I retract!
Always a wise tactic when around crazy people. :-)