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Fire Wallensky
“I’m going to pause here, I’m going to lose the script and I’m going to reflect on the recurring feeling I have of impending doom. We have so much to look forward to. So much promise and potential of where we are and so much reason for hope. But right now I’m scared…We are not powerless. We can change this trajectory of the pandemic, but it will take all of us recommitting to following the public health prevention strategies consistently while we work to get the American public vaccinated.” — Dr. Rochelle Wallensky, Director of the Centers for Disease Control.
I must disagree with Dr. Wallensky.
There is no scientific reason to believe that the virus will spread anywhere near as much as it did at this time last year, much less justify an inference of “impending doom”.
- COVID-19 is weirdly seasonal. The big case curves in NJ, NY, and MA all peaked on the same day—April 27 and the shape and duration of that curve was almost identical to that of Italy, Spain, and even Sweden about three weeks earlier. The southern tier of the US and Mexico shared a flatter curve that peaked across that entire region in the last week of July and the beginning of August. And the interior of the US experienced its common wave and peak months later. Therefore we should reasonably expect some kind of an uptick at the same times in the same places but not some large lasting surge that some experts still seem to think is possible. There was always a Gompertz curve in play.
- So, any expected uptick is highly predictable by date and region rather than a cause for generalized panic.
- An enormous number of people have been exposed, infected, and/or vaccinated (or dead) so the raw numbers and percentage of possible infection targets are greatly reduced and dropping. It is not possible for the bug to reprise its horrific debut even if there is not yet the functional equivalent of full herd immunity.
There is no scientific reason to believe that any of the “prevention strategies” implemented during the past year have had any effect so “recommitting” to them would be pointless.
- If you make side-by-side comparisons of states (or countries) which shared the same COVID region/season pattern but which differed with respect to policy, there is no difference attributable to NPIs. FL, TX, AZ, and CA shared the same wave but implemented different policies with no observable difference in the case or death curve trajectories. MN and WI are almost identical in climate, population, and density. MN COVID mandates went to absurd lengths. WI was prevented by courts and the legislature from doing the same. WI had a slightly higher case/million rate. MN had slighter higher deaths/million, in other words, no difference.
- Mask mandates have achieved no measurable difference in any meaningful comparison of jurisdictions. [By the way, if someone trots out the Kansas “study” of cherry-picked data and artificial date cutoff to claim that masked counties did better, I will be happy to share the real data. CDC trotted out that “study” to deflect attention from the about-to-be-released Danish finding that 6,000 volunteers (half of them mask-wearing, half without) saw no difference in COVID outcome.]
- Lockdowns and closures have had small to non-existent efficacy. (You can start here but there is a lot more out there ). The absurd arbitrary early closing times for restaurants, magical occupancy percentages, the sheer atrocity of school closings, and the variations of the applied“social distance” fetish all convey the illusion that experts are using some kind of fine-tuned control dials to limit the spread when in fact all of this is eyewash done so that experts and politicians can appear to Do Something About It –no matter the cost. None of this helped and the costs are monstrous and ongoing.
- The expert consensus in place at the time COVID arrived was that border closing, quarantines, lockdowns, and mask mandates would have only marginal, short-term effects with possible serious downsides. [See, Preparedness for a High-Impact Respiratory Pathogen Pandemic, Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security, Sept 2019 ] so the sudden assumption that the science said any of this would actually work was a politically inspired fiction.
- We have not yet begun to fully quantify the deaths from suicide, overdose, despair, and financial ruin. We have not yet seen the extent of delays in cancer diagnoses and treatments. Despite the documented damage to kids, Dr. Wallensky has not aggressively called out those who close schools against the recommendations of the pediatric profession, and in spite of the mountain of data about COVID’s minimal impact on kids and their very limited role in transmission. Why has she not done so?
There is no reason to expect that COVID-19 will continue to be anywhere near as lethal as it was last year.
- It appears that the quality and efficacy of treatment have vastly improved since this virus first appeared (and maybe the prevalent variants of COVID-19 are less lethal?).
- LTCs have significantly improved screening measures (and governors no longer force infected persons into them).
- COVID-19 has already killed a significant share of the most vulnerable which also reduces potential additional mortality.
- Whatever the combination of causes, the mortality rate is vastly lower than a year ago. If we look at NY where COVID hit earliest and hardest one year ago, the lethality of COVID has plummeted even as increased testing has greatly increased the number of reported “cases.” Deaths have dropped from a peak of 1,000 deaths to a few dozen despite many more reported COVID-positives:
- And according to the CDC’s own excess death count, the death rate from COVID is in steep decline and way below this time last year when the pandemic started to take off. The trend does not suggest “impending doom”:
The tone and substance of the Director’s comments are grossly irresponsible. Stoking fear in order to foster a political climate conducive to the re-imposition of costly and demonstrably ineffectual policies is outrageous as well as scientifically groundless.
In conclusion: Primum non nocere. Like her immediate predecessors, Dr. Wilensky is endorsing a policy mindset of COVID monomania to the exclusion of all other public health and human cost considerations. The NPIs she endorses have saved no one (don’t get me started on the most recent published dog’s breakfast claiming over 200,00 “preventions”) but they have seriously harmed children in particular, disrupted other needed medical care for many, caused economic and personal ruin and triggered harms that will unfold for years. There is no professional or moral justification for her behavior nor for the devastating lack of balance in her policy recommendations and priorities. She should resign or be fired.
Published in General
I nominate her as worst actress for crocodile tears
Excellent work, OB.
Yet another example of someone pushing an agenda who is isolated from the consequences of that agenda.
I read recently (will have to look for it again) that school dropouts on average live five fewer years than those who complete high school. Given that many states have “lost” literally tens of thousands of students when they went virtual, just think about the impact of that for many thousands.
The mask mandate for 2 year olds on airplanes and in daycares is among the worst of her edicts. We are having to reschedule a trip for this reason – my 2 year old twins can’t keep a mask on for 10 min, let alone an entire flight or through the airport. Absolutely infuriating…besides being just completely stupid for obvious reasons, it’s also not aligned with the WHO or any other countries’ regulations. (which generally require masks for 5+)
We’re experiencing a slight increase in positive cases in my town on Cape Cod, but what has changed radically from a year ago is our ability to test people and quarantine those who test positive. That immediately contains any outbreaks.
This strategy was the best answer during the Spanish flu pandemic, and it remains the best answer today. And we’re getting good at it.
I heard her speech, and it just does not fit with Dr. Marty Makary’s prediction, which makes the most sense to me of any I’ve read.
I don’t know what she is talking about. She gets nearly everything wrong. I think we are more up to date here on Ricochet than she is.
Per Wallensky’s own words, (on the Rachel Maddow show) a vaccinated person doesn’t need to “social distance,” or wear a mask.
Why does this administration (or the Mass Murderer Doktor Fauci) keep saying we all need to continue to wear masks even after vaccination?
Reference to actual past statements is a direct violation of CDC guidelines, including reference to guidelines. And consistency is just a manifestation of whiteness and patriarchal wrongthink anyway.
Apparently reporting on this finding by the CDC is not allowed either. It might give people hope. (Or as the media said last year whenever President Trump tried to offer positivity, “false hope.”)
It remains that if the CDC actually says that vaccinated people can’t spread the disease, why do they keep saying we need to keep people isolated and masked?
To put it crudely, these people are idiots. I really believe they don’t know what they’re doing, what they should be doing, what they should be doing differently, or whether to believe their own science or not. They have zero credibility–or minus zero–in my mind. Good post, OB.
Because the mask is a way of demonstrating one’s “love” for humanity, and going back to normal will rob masketeers of their ability to signal their “love” for humanity for all to see.
For half of Americans, the mask has become a sacramental rite and a symbol of safety and justice and puppies and all things good and wholesome. For the other half, it’s become a symbol of crisis, wokeness, and hopelessness — a constant reminder that the old world is dead and gone.
Keep on speaking truth to power.
Are the current weekly deaths at the lowest point in 3 years? What does that mean?
It means the bug is running out of eligible victims as it would have anyway even without all the failed interventions.
It also means that in spite of a rise in case numbers, either we’re getting better at treating it, or the virus is weakening. I still know people who are testing positive, but more and more people have either very light symptoms or none at all.
This is exactly the truth about the vaccines and the way immunity will quickly spread because of them. How the heck did she go from this to the tearful speech she just made?
This extraordinary and exciting and wonderful news. Thanks to Donald Trump, we will soon put this pandemic back in the box.
I keep thinking that these CDC spokespersons have abandoned their medical profession in favor of their new life as social engineers. Fauci’s pronouncements have very little grounding in medicine; he’s become a commentator on the culture, and is very enamored of his own imagined image.
But it also means treatments are better than they were a year ago, and people are self-quarantining faster too.
It will be interesting to see what happens with the flu and other viruses now.
I’m banking on the ability of the microbiologists to explain how microorganisms interact so that the CDC et al. aren’t able to assert that the interventions (other than the vaccines, which have helped enormously) are keeping all viruses and bacteria from spreading among human beings.
Fauci is the devil.
We Have The Power To Say No To Unending ‘COVID Passports’ — And Hold Elites Accountable For The Lockdown Disaster
The ironic thing is that this statement about the vaccinated not being able to spread COVID is embedded in a long, gloomy interview with Rachel Maddow about our impending doom.
Media focused on the doom, ignored the statement that vaccinations mean freedom. And Fauci still says “double mask, everyone, and maybe if you do as your told, in a year we can start opening up again . . . maybe.”
That’s wild. Holy cow. I’m stunned.
Maybe he now has his own magical crystal ball . . .
!!!!!Amen, Susan!!!!!!
Someone told me I should wear a mask to show my “respect” for others.
I replied that after this past year I didn’t have much respect for others.
Meanwhile, a lesson on mask mandates and what BS they were, as demonstrated from data in the state of Montana:
I can’t think of one single statement the “health experts” and government officials have made to us that showed a bit of truth. Other than Bill Gates stating he was really going to work hard to ensure he would face no liability whatsoever no matter what goes wrong with the vaccine program.
(Small-ish line of type under the Montana mask graphic spells out it was taken of a NYT’s web link.)
Let’s just do a little math. CDC estimates the expected number of deaths by averaging the deaths from the previous 4 years. Life expectancy is is 78 years in round numbers. 2020 – 78 = 1942. Using the CDC’s own table of births Table 1-1. Live Births, Birth Rates, and Fertility Rates, by Race: United States, 1909-2003 (cdc.gov) the average number of births for the previous 4 years is 2,563,500. So any number over this would be unexpected. There were 2,989,000 births in 1942. 425,500 unexpected births. Because averaging deaths is easier than creating actuarial tables to develop accurate statistics on which to base your reactions.
I wonder when these unexpected people will die?
Masks will not keep you safe from the Commie Flu.
Forcing everyone to wear these silly little face coverings is one of the most egregious, dehumanizing sins our ruling class has foisted upon us.
Especially given that they don’t wear them when the cameras are off.
This is all a Cloward-Piven strategy for destroying the US economy (first through mass layoffs and business closures, and now through massive “COVID Relief” spending) to usher in a socialist future.
I see two issues that no one has mentioned. One is the almost total lack of approved treatments, caused by the Health Nazis refusal to acknowledge the efficacy of hydroxychloroquine, zinc, and ivermectin in treating COVID on an outpatient basis. How many hospitalizations and deaths could have been prevented if people had been allowed access to treatments at home? Thousands, I think.
The other issue is the importation, with malice aforethought, of thousands of illegal aliens on our southern border, many of them testing positive for the virus. They are kept in close quarters at detention facilities, probably spreading the virus further, then just released into the population. We are importing that dreaded fourth wave, giving our dictators reason to lock us down again. Funny that none of them seem to suffer for their policies.
Well, we could vote them out if our votes mattered anymore.
No, we can’t since Fauci and Wollensky are not elected. They are out of reach of those who pay their salaries.
I meant Democrats in general — who never suffer for their policies.
We vote them out, then we vote in conservatives (not necessarily “Republicans”) who have some spine.
But we can’t. Not anymore. Our votes no longer matter.
Because Florida and Texas are utterly depopulated now owing to their lackadaisical stance toward the virus. No survivors anywhere. Ghost states. What a putz. What a buffoon. What a clown. Put a squeaky nose on it and a fork in it, it is done,