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Where Are the Outbreaks?
If you listen to those who are supposedly in the know, we’re having a winter spike because people are getting together in their homes for dinner parties and Thanksgiving meals. We’re having a spike because selfish people won’t wear masks in public. But what’s actually behind the outbreaks? New York State issued the findings from contact tracers, and to say it doesn’t fit the preferred narrative is an understatement.
Despite the fact that restaurants are now closed for indoor dining, in the middle of winter, thereby effectively destroying the rest of those who have survived to this point, less than 1.5% of those who tested positive could have their infection traced to a restaurant. No, the real spread is within households. And why are people getting sick? Some insight:
My guess. They pick it up working. Spread to vulnerable people in their house because they can’t socially distance and have no where to isolate. Maybe spread it to other families if they’re sharing childcare and home schooling responsibilities because they can’t afford tutors.
— Victoria Fox (@drvictoriafox) December 13, 2020
What might we have done instead of shutting down entire sectors of our economy, thereby destroying them? That will be the subject of countless case studies moving forward, but one very effective strategy would have been to pour a fraction of the money we put into loans meant to bail out the restaurant and service industries and put it into rigorous testing, quarantine hotels, and paid sick leave for those who fell ill and short-term disability leave for high-risk households.
Instead of helping these low-income service industry workers, we destroyed their financial security and their children’s educations, all while upper-class Americans continued to order Door Dash from the remaining restaurants and worked from home remotely.
The story of our pandemic response is one of the privileged wrecking the entire lower-class, senselessly and thoughtlessly. The latest statistics on where we’re seeing spread is just another data point in that narrative.
Published in General
I am aware of (but didn’t know personally) only two people who have died from covid. One was a former co-worker of my wife, here in Milwaukee. The other was the sister-in-law of one of my off-shore team in India. Both were under the age of 50.
I’ve known a few people who have it and recovered in a few days, including my brother and his family. My employer reports every week on case counts. As of Thursday, out of a total workforce of about 2000 spread across 5 states, we’ve had about 200 cases, with more than 150 returned to work, and no reported fatalities.
There’s that old expression about closing the barn door . . .
At the expense of the economy, people’s emotional well-being, and chidren’s education. Not worth it not matter how effective the measures are, not at this point . . .
There were hardly any serious stories about the protests and riots being virus-spreading events. That, and only Trump rallies, Thanksgiving dinners, and large religious celebrations were considered “superspreader” events . . .
Yuk!
I have looked for data on how infection spread breaks down by state, but I can’t find contact tracing that is that granular.
I can tell you that while I spend a lot of time in Austin, I also live in a county in TN that has around a half a million residents. Restaurants have been open for months now with only 213 citizens of any age who have died from Covid-19. I can also see from the health department that 128 of the deceased have been 75+. (This does not mean I don’t value older citizens, but come on. 75+ means a person has had good innings.)
So after having to circle the strip mall parking lot Saturday for ten minutes before I found a space because it was so crowded, I just can’t feel the panic many seem to feel when looking at that number in my own very open corner of the world.
The truth is that even if I was full of fear, I could still look at the fact that a state like Texas has a much lower number of per capita infections than California and think that the lockdowns in California have not been that useful in stopping spread. (To be fair, Tennessee currently has a higher infection rate than CA. I guess you could jump to “mask mandates,” but voluntary compliance on that front is very, very high here. I just think the spread has hit rural pockets where it hadn’t previously b/c spread is inevitable.)
I’ve also found data saying TX has a higher death rate than CA, but that is separate from a higher spread rate. Also, other fervent lockdown states like NY, NJ, and Michigan have much higher death rates, sooooo……
Per your morgue story, death rates are higher in (much poorer) El Paso than (much richer) Austin, to be sure as well, but Austin’s restaurants are open, so I’d want to look at other reasons for why this is this case.
I just think it’s a LOT more complicated than closing the restaurant (or any other) industry.
This anecdote is surely true, but my immediate question would be: “What other health issues did they have?” When looking at data about death rates across the country, people under 50 are not at high risk.
I mean… I only known one person ever who died of the flu, and she was under 10. That doesn’t really tell me a lot about the risks of death-by-flu across society.
I also know many people at this point who have had Covid. Some have been very sick. Some have barely noticed. One had it, didn’t know it, but found antibodies due to testing at a university. No one I know personally has died of Covid. These anecdotes also mean nothing when it comes to evaluating hard data. My social circle is just too small.
Why are people in government so happy that they can tell us who gets to work and who gets to live on welfare for the rest of their lives?
My money is on “other”. It’s probably a decent thing to do when you have obvious social distancing / time exposure issues or whatever you want to call it, but I don’t think it changes the spread through society at all.
I really resent it when politicians say stupid things like “masks are the most important tool”. It most obviously isn’t.
The Minnesota governor has literally said it will be the last policy he cancels. Ridiculous.
Oh, I agree. 1000%. But I’m tired of arguing about the efficacy of masks. I don’t wear one when I don’t have to wear one unless I really am around someone else (as in super up close, not 6 feet away in passing) who is clearly vulnerable in some way.
Thinking about those things (and the growing of the food mentioned by @caroljoy in Comment #13) would require second and third order thinking about the consequences of their actions. And Progressives have demonstrated a long history of thinking no deeper than first order – the immediate result – and not thinking about how people might respond to the changed incentives of the immediate response.
I appreciated that Sen. Ted Cruz on Sunday jabbed at millionaire media personality Jake Tapper and billionaire tech mogul Bill Gates by asking how they would feel about the shutdown they claim to want if their own money were frozen. I have also liked people calling for the salaries and benefits of politicians to be stopped as long as the shutdowns they order continue.
As with so many things, the people making the policies are not seriously impacted by those policies.
Contact tracing budgeting claim off by a factor of 10x-https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/IF/IF11609
vaccine development started within days of the reported sequence of the viral mRNA which occurred in early Jan- so Dr Collins use of a year is correct (colloquially 10-11 months is a year).
That also depends on when the testing was done, etc. If contact tracing done when restaurants were still open, showed that “less than 1.5% of those who tested positive could have their infection traced to a restaurant,” then closing the restaurants was not a valid step to take.
Not to mention there are significant delays between actions and any effect that is observable on the order of 2-4 weeks at a minimum.
What about the Hepa-potomus at the zoo?
It does seem odd for many news outlets etc who were pushing the panic, especially if they thought it would help defeat Trump, now calling for calm.
It’s rampant in my neighborhood. We have had people die in the under 50 category. I also have friends who have had it and would be considered “long haulers”. I have a friend in Britain who has it a second time. I’m worried she’s not going to pull through this. She’s 47.
I can really see how this whole crazy, can go sideways, very sideways, and these elites will suffer consequences.
I heard it happened once before, in France, a good long time ago…
People who want to eat will work. It may take time to get to that point….
Too bad they can’t think of that BEFOREHAND. And they’re supposed to be the elites, aren’t they supposed to be better at thinking? And remembering stuff from history?
Again, I would want to know about all their other health issues as age is only one indicator of risk. In fact, age is only a giant indicator on one level because older people have many more underlying issues in their twilight years. (People in their seventies don’t automatically die with Covid.)
Someone could easily be overweight, have diabetes, respiratory disease, etc., when younger. A perfectly healthy person under 50 is not at high risk per all the published data.
I am sorry your friends have been ill though, and I hope your one friend pulls through soon.
Sure. But not all co-morbidities are created equal per putting people at risk. Data clearly show that death rates are higher in older populations. That’s just not disputable at this point, and that is exactly because of what you say: higher incidents of chronic disease in older groups. That does not, however, mean young people don’t have chronic diseases.
This is why when I hear someone has died in a younger cohort, I want to know what all their health conditions were, even if that reveals a few unlucky people who were young and healthy but still got the bad end of the stick. (That’s just not a typical outcome.)
One thing that I had hoped would come out of this whole pandemic was a push for the population in general to get in shape. It’s clear obesity is a major problem in the US and has been for some time. So what do government officials do in response to a virus that is especially dangerous for obese people?
They close the gyms.
(Siiiiigggggghhhhhhh.)
And tell everyone to stay home, where they can have pizza and snacks delivered…
Somewhere Michelle Obama is saying ‘I told you so’.
On that particular issue, Michelle Obama was right. :)
I decided to write a longer post about this particular topic here on Ricochet.
Isn’t she always doing that?
Letting people know that exercise is good for them is right up there letting everyone know the sky is blue today.
But the truly self-indulgent “experts” like herself and Barack and Jill Biden and others, believe that only THEY really know and understand those “secrets.”
Or as Dr William H Cosby (Ed.D) says, “intellectuals go to school to learn about things that other people do naturally.”