Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
A Second Shoe Drops in the Middle East
On Friday, President Trump announced a peace deal between Israel and Bahrain. Here is a brief Washington Examiner article with further details. There will be a formal Declaration of Peace signed at the White House on September 15.
This makes two important peace deals in the Middle East. I’m not an expert on the history of the region, but I don’t think we’ve seen even a single deal like this since the Israel-Jordan peace agreement in 1994.
I wonder if more such deals are on the way. I don’t want to get greedy, as the UAE and Bahrain deals are major accomplishments. But I could see the showman in the President choreographing the roll-out of one successful peace deal after another in the Middle East, every three to four weeks. Saudi Arabia would be the most extraordinary deal, if rolled out in about five to six weeks, just before the election.
Published in Foreign Policy
I figured Bahrain and probably Oman would follow, and then, after a lag, Saudi Arabia.
Qatar would be last of the Arab states and after a long delay, or else would not happen at all.
Qatar kindly censors the F-words in the movies shown on its airline. A fine airline–better for watching Batman movies as I recall, whereas Emirates was better for MCU. But Qatar is also on the more terrorist-friendly wing of the Arab states. (Qatar, as I recall, funded the ISIS terrorists the Emiratis bombed a few years back.)
But I did not expect Bahrain this quickly! I am impressed!
Yeah, but it surely would be fun to watch.
Good on Trump for this. His Middle East policy is the best part of his foreign policy.
Qatar might be next in the Gulf.
It’s certainly more vulnerable (say weaker) than places like Saudi and Oman, so it’s more motivated to please Congress.
??
You think I’m reading Qatar wrong?
I imagine that’s possible.
Random Qatar point: I like that ridiculous yellow bear in the airport.
I think you’re missing the motivation for signing these agreements.
I was thinking of Qatar’s version of Islam and of the Iranian danger to Sunni Arabia. You mentioned Qatari vulnerability–to Iran, I thought.
Now you’re linking to an article about the thing in eastern Europe.
I’m lost.
No you aren’t. The common motive is to make Congress happy.
Ah. Ok.
Be careful about Bahrain.
The ruling family may be on board with this. But the mass of Bahrainis probably are not. The royals are Sunni. The mass of the people are Shia and favor Iran.
When I was in Saudi from 2013 to 15 I was in Bahrain a fair amount. I witnessed numerous protests and riots in support of Iran.
To be honest, none of these places are democracies. There’s no mechanism to ensure that (or measure if) Government decisions credibly reflect the people’s opinion. Not in the UAE, not in Bahrain, not in Saudi. (And probably not in Egypt or Jordan either.)
Saudi is a much tougher nut to crack. Normalizng relations with Israel would be huge, but there would be considerable backlash from the population. At least, that is what I’ve been told. However, the people who told me that haven’t done much, lately. Whether or not there is a normalization, the Saudis have been surreptitiously cooperating with the Israelis for some time now. Iran is just that scary.
Yes, the Saudi people probably drink Israeli beverages and eat Israeli food and what-not, and it’s all fine, but if there was an “official” peace declared, I expect the Saudi mullahs would tell the Saudi people to riot, and they would. Just Because.
So maybe Sudan as well.
Pelosi called this a “distraction”.
Now, Morocco.
Sorry I missed that. This is what is going on with Qatar:
Iran isn’t causing difficulty to Qatar, Saudi etc. are. imho because of Aljazeera more than anything else.
Well, well. Good to know. Thanks.
Perhaps these countries are rushing to establish relations with Israel before the elections since they suspect a pro-Iranian Democrat in the White House would weaken them since they are Iran’s enemies. Better establish relations with Israel now as a sort of protection against Iranian aggression. It is doubtful that Biden would reach out to other Arab states to establish ties with Israel as Trump has.
It’s strange. On one hand whatever creates benefits that encourage people to compromise is a good thing – and hopefully trade between Israel and the UAE and Bahrain (and whichever country comes after) will do just that for Israelis and the Arab countries when it comes to land on the West Bank. On the other hand these agreements will long term bind the US-as-patron closer to the Arab countries which will lose some stability because of these peace agreements. So it’s a victory for a state of permanent conflict management for the US over leaving the region to fix its own messes without the loss of American lives or treasure.
So, in the Middle East, war is more stable than peace.
There certainly seems to have been a much longer record of war, than peace.
The results are more palatable?
I doubt that either the UAE or Bahrain changed their stance with Israel without the knowledge and tacit approval of the Saudis. I don’t know if the next shoe is going to drop. I just think it might.
The pretence of conflict rather than war? Neither Bahrain nor The UAE were at war with Israel.
Normalizing relations should only bring advantages to both. Does this mean that Abu Dahbi finally gets a decent deli? Maybe not immediately, but sooner or later.
Or Oman?
Jimmy Carter: Nobel peace prize, Camp David Accords
Barack Obama: Nobel Peace Prize, just for being Obama
Donald Trump: ????????, UAE-Israel Peace Deal, ditto Bahrain-Israel.
Also getting rid of the Iran deal, which is also a big help for long-term peace.
Also the Serbia-Kosovo deal.