Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. COVID-19: It’s Over, But How Do You Convince People That It’s Over? Part 2

 

The title to this post is a reprise of Day 104: COVID-19 It’s Over, But How Do You Convince People That It’s Over? posted on May 3. The key graphs in that post for my purposes today is:

[T]he epidemic has definitely slowed in this country.

But do people really see that? Yes, a lot of people are anxious to get back to life. But are they feeling confident that doing so is the right decision? How do you persuade those that remain fearful that the “quarantine breakers” are actually common-sense individuals not just recklessly selfish?

This is going to be tough. The public has been fed a lot of data where the numbers rise steeply. As the body count mounts, and it will continue to do so, how do you get people to realize that things are winding down?

The main technique that governments and media have used to continue to stoke fear are rising rates of “confirmed cases.” The problem with this data as I have pointed out before is data aggregation when data disaggregation is called for. That is, the way cases are confirmed is through testing. There are a variety of testing protocols: testing symptomatic and others in close contact with symptomatic persons, testing hospital admissions or other patients undergoing procedures for which there are no COVID-19 symptoms. There are a variety of tests even though they only fall into two categories: PCR and antibody. PCR tests directly look for an active virus, but there have been reports that some testing methods identify RNA fragments of viruses that are not active and may reflect that someone has recovered from COVID-19 rather than being actively ill. Antibody tests have a variety of sensitivities and may also respond to coronavirus more generally than SARS-CoV-2 specifically. All of this calls into question whether confirmed cases truly reflects a level of current disease-specific to active SARS-CoV-2 or is simply an echo of a seasonal illness that is already past for 2019-2020. It is the latter possibility that Professor Dolores Cahill from Ireland discusses starting at about 3:30:00 in the video at this link. (The entire video is fascinating for the international resistance to government actions being taken in response to the epidemic. The video is one of a series of live stream recordings made by the German Stiftung Corona-Ausschuss (Corona Committee Foundation). The video moves back and forth between German and English to ensure that the expected audiences in Germany and elsewhwere can follow the discussion (if you are hearing them speaking German just wait a few minutes and they will talk in English).

That could be easily verified if positive tests are going up but hospitalizations and deaths specific to symptomatic COVID-19 are going down. But our official data is not tracking it in that way. And thus we are deprived of key knowledge that should be informing our local health policies and government action.

Speaking of key knowledge that should be informing our local health policies and government action, let me give a hat tip to @misterbitcoin for reminding us of the Gompertz curve and Professor Michael Levitt, Nobel prize winner for “the development of multiscale models for complex chemical systems” and professor at Stanford University. According to Professor Levitt, the US epidemic should essentially be over on August 25. As of this writing, the deaths attributed to COVID-19 are 162,423. Professor Levitt is calculating less than 170,000 reported deaths as of August 25, but for reasons stated above the count is likely to be higher whether that is real or not.

Is Professor Levitt right? Well, he is more right than Governor Cuomo, Governor Newsom, Governor Whitmer, Governor Inslee or any of the other Blue State executives. On June 2 Professor Levitt predicted that Sweden would have around 5,000 deaths before their new deaths dropped to zero. They recorded 5,763 total deaths before reaching zero new deaths. Certainly within the order of magnitude that Professor Levitt predicted.

Notice the Gompertz curve?

Although this narrative is not favored by the media and centralized government proponents, voices are starting to assert themselves. As discussed by Professor Cahill (and others) in the aforementioned video this is a time to take back control of our lives.

One by one, we emerge into the light.

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. Arahant Member

    I’m willing to call it done.

    • #1
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:16 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  2. Addiction Is A Choice Member

    Rodin: Is Professor Levitt right?

    • #2
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:16 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  3. Unsk Member

    Appropriate post at this time.

    Since Trump has issued a EO on the economy, it’s time for him to:

    A. Organize a commission on COVID-19 deaths and infections with his people ( without the usual suspects like Dr Fauci) to determine actual deaths and infections in a rational way to stop the fear mongering. 

    B. Issue a EO allowing a patient under a doctor’s care to use HCQ or drugs like Quercetin.

    C. Issue a EO setting restrictions on the lockdowns. He needs to issue information on how many deaths the lockdown have caused like the post put up by Dr Bastiat. 

    Just like on the COVID relief negotiations, Trump needs to take charge. 

    • #3
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:20 PM PDT
    • 13 likes
  4. Matt Bartle Member
    Matt BartleJoined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    At the height of the problem in New York State, they were reporting over 1,000 deaths/day. Now it’s more like 10.

    It seems crazy to me to behave as if nothing has changed.

    • #4
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:24 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  5. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    I heard on Rush Limbaugh that the ‘average American’ believes 30 million people have died from covid.

    We don’t even have 30 million ‘cases’.

    https://www.rushlimbaugh.com/daily/2020/08/03/covid-19-deaths-are-a-tiny-percentage-of-the-overall-mortality-rate/

    The average American thinks that 30 million people have died from COVID already, Missy. Nine percent. The average American thinks 9% of the country’s already died from COVID.

    I’ll tell you there’s something else. There is something else about this, folks. The people who are telling you what you have to do to shut down your business, to not send your kid back to school, to not go back to work, these are people that have not lost a paycheck during this crisis. Have you noticed? There’s not a single federal worker that’s been fired. Not a single one. This is crucially important. The people that have not lost a paycheck are the ones telling you that you need to give up your livelihood, shut down your business, don’t go back to your job.

     

    Thank you for the hat tip… Everyone needs to listen to Michael Levitt

     

    • #5
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:40 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  6. Saint Augustine Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    We don’t even have 30 million ‘cases’.

    Not even globally.

    • #6
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:43 PM PDT
    • 12 likes
  7. Susan Quinn Contributor

    Neither the media nor government is interested in being truthful or accurate. They are only interested in sensationalizing what is happening. In some ways, I suspect they get some sick satisfaction at watching so much of the public suffer at hearing the bad news. Otherwise why wouldn’t they try harder to be fair and honest? I do believe the worst is over; whether others will behave accordingly soon, I’m not optimistic.

    • #7
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:43 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  8. RightAngles Member

    Over on Reddit, the Texas subreddit has breathless hysterical posts about the body count. They post frightening graphs with arrows pointing up to the skies to show the rise of “new cases.” Anyone who tries to question it is shouted down.

    • #8
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:47 PM PDT
    • 13 likes
  9. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Unsk (View Comment):

    B. Issue a EO allowing a patient under a doctor’s care to use HCQ or drugs like Quercetin.

    C. Issue a EO setting restrictions on the lockdowns. He needs to issue information on how many deaths the lockdown have caused like the post put up by Dr Bastiat. 

    How about an EO to make HCQ available over-the-counter (with ID like psuedofed). 

    I don’t think an EO can be used to override a state lockdown.

    I am starting to worry about false positives. States like New York are seeing a test positivity of 2% some days. The test can’t be that accurate. Look at Gov. DeWine! Is policy being driven by false positives??

    That said, no lockdowns were ever required. All we ever needed was HCQ and O2.

     

    Herd Immunity is not just a great band name.

    I Heart Herd Immunity T-Shirt

    • #9
    • August 9, 2020, at 4:54 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  10. Saint Augustine Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    I don’t think an EO can be used to override a state lockdown.

    I’m not at all optimistic about the legality of executive orders as opposed to congressional acts signed and then executed by the President.

    I’m actually pretty optimistic that there is no problem with respect to federal vs. state governments. The state–according to the 14th Amendment–is not allowed to deprive citizens of liberty or property without due process of law. The right to property may well include the right to work, but I’m not sure. Liberty covers the right to go here and there and the right to work; those are human rights.

    Much depends, of course, on the state lockdown being improper.

    • #10
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:01 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  11. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    The answer to your question is if Professor Levitt proves correct as of August 25. It is a very specific and falsifiable prediction. I hope he is correct. We’ve had predictions before. I remember the Israeli professor cited here at Ricochet back in March predicting it would be over in eight weeks and multiple predictions that with the advent of warmer weather the virus would disappear. We’ll see.

    • #11
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:06 PM PDT
    • 6 likes
  12. Judge Mental Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    I don’t think an EO can be used to override a state lockdown.

     

    The Democrats, starting with Nancy Pelosi, were demanding that Trump issue a nationwide lockdown order, which would certainly have involved overriding local orders.

    Sauce. Goose. Gander.

    • #12
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:09 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  13. Jules PA Member

    So many have gone hysterically insane. We now all live in Salem. 2020 the year of witch hunts.

    • #13
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:28 PM PDT
    • 13 likes
  14. Clavius Thatcher

    Unsk (View Comment):

    Appropriate post at this time.

    Since Trump has issued a EO on the economy, it’s time for him to:

    A. Organize a commission on COVID-19 deaths and infections with his people ( without the usual suspects like Dr Fauci) to determine actual deaths and infections in a rational way to stop the fear mongering.

    B. Issue a EO allowing a patient under a doctor’s care to use HCQ or drugs like Quercetin.

    C. Issue a EO setting restrictions on the lockdowns. He needs to issue information on how many deaths the lockdown have caused like the post put up by Dr Bastiat.

    Just like on the COVID relief negotiations, Trump needs to take charge.

    Yes, yes, yes!

    • #14
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:51 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  15. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    Matt Bartle (View Comment):

    At the height of the problem in New York State, they were reporting over 1,000 deaths/day. Now it’s more like 10.

    It seems crazy to me to behave as if nothing has changed.

    I said just what you stated in a remark over at FB today, to be countered by two other people that I need to wake up to the idea that COVID is so stealthy. People end up with blood clots killing them. Their hearts explode. These side effects don’t happen today or tomorrow but months from now. So we need to be locked down.

    Their counter arguments do not even make sense – as if the infection is no longer occurring, the side effects are doomed also.

    But we are now witnessing the rise of that generation that was helicopter parented. Who had adults standing over them at every moment of their lives, ensuring they didn’t trip down the stairs, get kidnapped walking to the park three blocks from their home, and couldn’t have a puppy because it might nip at them.

    They have been taught that it makes sense to stop doing everything involving having a life, as long as some fear they have considered can be blown up disproportionately to force them to shut down. So now they can have us all get shut down. Possibly forever.

    • #15
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:56 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  16. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Addiction Is A Choice (View Comment):

    Rodin: Is Professor Levitt right?

    Say it, say it, say it!

     

    • #16
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:59 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  17. OmegaPaladin Moderator

    I have people at work who are scared of doing their job by the thought of COVID-19. Even now, with pretty good compliance of people at my workplace with social distancing and masking, they are still worried.

    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style, or convincing Gary Robbins that Reagan was not divine.

    • #17
    • August 9, 2020, at 5:59 PM PDT
    • 12 likes
  18. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    Saint Augustine (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    I don’t think an EO can be used to override a state lockdown.

    I’m not at all optimistic about the legality of executive orders as opposed to congressional acts signed and then executed by the President.

    I’m actually pretty optimistic that there is no problem with respect to federal vs. state governments. The state–according to the 14th Amendment–is not allowed to deprive citizens of liberty or property without due process of law. The right to property may well include the right to work, but I’m not sure. Liberty covers the right to go here and there and the right to work; those are human rights.

    Much depends, of course, on the state lockdown being improper.

    The state lockdown here in California is very improper. Totally beyond all commonsense and very arbitrary.

    No one can attend church services held at a church, even if the building is open to droves of people coming in during the week for the church’s food bank. Trump is so upset over this that I am hearing he is sending his personal attorney here to Calif to handle a lawsuit for any pastor or congregation that wishes to file against Gov Gruesom.

     

    • #18
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:00 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  19. CarolJoy, Thread Hijacker Coolidge

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    I have people at work who are scared of doing their job by the thought of COVID-19. Even now, with pretty good compliance of people at my workplace with social distancing and masking, they are still worried.

    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style, or convincing Gary Robbins that Reagan was not divine.

    Is this evenly spread among all age groups? Or is one age group more fearful than another?

    • #19
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:02 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  20. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… (View Comment):

    The answer to your question is if Professor Levitt proves correct as of August 25. It is a very specific and falsifiable prediction. I hope he is correct. We’ve had predictions before. I remember the Israeli professor cited here at Ricochet back in March predicting it would be over in eight weeks and multiple predictions that with the advent of warmer weather the virus would disappear. We’ll see.

    The Israeli professor is correct.

    The epidemic in NY peaked after 6 weeks and was over after 8 weeks.

    US is like 50 different ‘countries’. Each has a different start and end date.

    Fauci said 2 million people would die.

    Then he said 200,000 – 300,000 deaths in April.

     

    • #20
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:03 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  21. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    So many have gone hysterically insane. We now all live in Salem. 2020 the year of witch hunts.

    If you float, you are a witch

     

    • #21
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:04 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  22. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    CarolJoy, Above Top Secret (View Comment):

    Matt Bartle (View Comment):

    At the height of the problem in New York State, they were reporting over 1,000 deaths/day. Now it’s more like 10.

    It seems crazy to me to behave as if nothing has changed.

    I said just what you stated in a remark over at FB today, to be countered by two other people that I need to wake up to the idea that COVID is so stealthy. People end up with blood clots killing them. Their hearts explode. These side effects don’t happen today or tomorrow but months from now. So we need to be locked down.

    Their counter arguments do not even make sense – as if the infection is no longer occurring, the side effects are doomed also.

    But we are now witnessing the rise of that generation that was helicopter parented. Who had adults standing over them at every moment of their lives, ensuring they didn’t trip down the stairs, get kidnapped walking to the park three blocks from their home, and couldn’t have a puppy because it might nip at them.

    They have been taught that it makes sense to stop doing everything involving having a life, as long as some fear they have considered can be blown up disproportionately to force them to shut down. So now they can have us all get shut down. Possibly forever.

    Remember 15 days to flatten the curve?

    That seems like 15 months ago

    It’s not just helicoptor parents… it’s the public school system, universities with an overt Marxist agenda, the media/punditocracy, Hollywood, Silicon Valley

     

    • #22
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:06 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  23. Saint Augustine Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    If you float, you are a witch

    Nonsense. You’re a witch if you weigh the same as a duck.

    It’s SCIENCE!

    • #23
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:07 PM PDT
    • 14 likes
  24. Clavius Thatcher

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    So many have gone hysterically insane. We now all live in Salem. 2020 the year of witch hunts.

    If you float, you are a witch

     

     

    • #24
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:08 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  25. Jason Rudert Member

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    I have people at work who are scared of doing their job by the thought of COVID-19. Even now, with pretty good compliance of people at my workplace with social distancing and masking, they are still worried.

    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style, or convincing Gary Robbins that Reagan was not divine.

    You know, I haven’t always agreed with you—or liked you—but I love you. 

    • #25
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:31 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  26. Jules PA Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    So many have gone hysterically insane. We now all live in Salem. 2020 the year of witch hunts.

    If you float, you are a witch

     

    And if you sink you’re dead. 

    Either way…

    • #26
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:36 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  27. Kevin Schulte Member

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):
    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style,

    You can’t honestly believe this hokum do you ?

    • #27
    • August 9, 2020, at 6:43 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  28. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):
    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style,

    You can’t honestly believe this hokum do you ?

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/08/jihadi_murderers_feign_reform_.html

    Jihadis continue to tell infidels what they wish to hear, and the latter continue to eat it up — to their own, often fatal, detriment.

    This is one of the findings of a July 22, 2020 study titled “Prisons and Terrorism” in Western Europe, an updated version of a long-term study first begun in 2010. Published by Kings College London’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), it finds that “‘False compliance’ seems to have become more widespread, especially among jihadist prisoners, though its true extent is unknown. This can be a major issue in relation to risk assessment and release arrangements.”

    The ICSR report documented several examples of jihadi prisoners pretending to have reformed and “deradicalized.” One of the two Muslims who beheaded 85‑year‑old Catholic priest Jacques Hamel in his church in France in 2016 had twice earlier been apprehended for trying to go to Syria and fight for the Islamic State. All he had to do, however, was tell the judge what he wanted to hear: “I am a Muslim who believes in mercy, in doing good, I’m not an extremist … I want to get back my life, see my friends, get married.” Based on these words, the judge released him, and soon thereafter this “Muslim who believes in mercy” slaughtered the aged priest.

    After being imprisoned for his involvement in a bombing plot, Usman Khan — who “was considered a success story of an extremist turning their life around” — was released early. Not long thereafter he too went on a stabbing rampage that killed two and injured three on London Bridge. 

     

    • #28
    • August 9, 2020, at 7:02 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  29. Kevin Schulte Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):
    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style,

    You can’t honestly believe this hokum do you ?

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/08/jihadi_murderers_feign_reform_.html

    Jihadis continue to tell infidels what they wish to hear, and the latter continue to eat it up — to their own, often fatal, detriment.

    This is one of the findings of a July 22, 2020 study titled “Prisons and Terrorism” in Western Europe, an updated version of a long-term study first begun in 2010. Published by Kings College London’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), it finds that “‘False compliance’ seems to have become more widespread, especially among jihadist prisoners, though its true extent is unknown. This can be a major issue in relation to risk assessment and release arrangements.”

    The ICSR report documented several examples of jihadi prisoners pretending to have reformed and “deradicalized.” One of the two Muslims who beheaded 85‑year‑old Catholic priest Jacques Hamel in his church in France in 2016 had twice earlier been apprehended for trying to go to Syria and fight for the Islamic State. All he had to do, however, was tell the judge what he wanted to hear: “I am a Muslim who believes in mercy, in doing good, I’m not an extremist … I want to get back my life, see my friends, get married.” Based on these words, the judge released him, and soon thereafter this “Muslim who believes in mercy” slaughtered the aged priest.

    After being imprisoned for his involvement in a bombing plot, Usman Khan — who “was considered a success story of an extremist turning their life around” — was released early. Not long thereafter he too went on a stabbing rampage that killed two and injured three on London Bridge.

     

    The qoute was Omega’s coworker. Perhaps his coworker is plotting like the examples in the link though unlikely. The inference was that a not insignificant number of Omega’s co ricochet suspected all Muslims of this. 

    If I misread Omega, my opologies. 

    • #29
    • August 9, 2020, at 7:09 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  30. Flicker Coolidge

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    Kevin Schulte (View Comment):

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):
    It would be like convincing people on Ricochet that my Muslim co-worker does not want to cut off all our heads ISIS style,

    You can’t honestly believe this hokum do you ?

    https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2020/08/jihadi_murderers_feign_reform_.html

    Jihadis continue to tell infidels what they wish to hear, and the latter continue to eat it up — to their own, often fatal, detriment.

    This is one of the findings of a July 22, 2020 study titled “Prisons and Terrorism” in Western Europe, an updated version of a long-term study first begun in 2010. Published by Kings College London’s International Centre for the Study of Radicalisation (ICSR), it finds that “‘False compliance’ seems to have become more widespread, especially among jihadist prisoners, though its true extent is unknown. This can be a major issue in relation to risk assessment and release arrangements.”

    The ICSR report documented several examples of jihadi prisoners pretending to have reformed and “deradicalized.” One of the two Muslims who beheaded 85‑year‑old Catholic priest Jacques Hamel in his church in France in 2016 had twice earlier been apprehended for trying to go to Syria and fight for the Islamic State. All he had to do, however, was tell the judge what he wanted to hear: “I am a Muslim who believes in mercy, in doing good, I’m not an extremist … I want to get back my life, see my friends, get married.” Based on these words, the judge released him, and soon thereafter this “Muslim who believes in mercy” slaughtered the aged priest.

    After being imprisoned for his involvement in a bombing plot, Usman Khan — who “was considered a success story of an extremist turning their life around” — was released early. Not long thereafter he too went on a stabbing rampage that killed two and injured three on London Bridge.

     

    The qoute was Omega’s coworker. Perhaps his coworker is plotting like the examples in the link though unlikely. The inference was that a not insignificant number of Omega’s co ricochet suspected all Muslims of this.

    If I misread Omega, my opologies.

    I’ve read of one “Christian” who committed a murder for a “Christian” cause in the Western world in my lifetime, that is if he even succeeded at murdering someone. There are dozens, perhaps hundreds, of examples in the press about muslims who have murdered people for being infidels. This would not make me worry about my co-workers, except that many muslims raised in the West within secular families take a strong interest in islam, and become fundamentalized as they age.

    I do not see this murderous radicalization in Christians at all.

    • #30
    • August 9, 2020, at 7:23 PM PDT
    • 8 likes