Another Reason to Distrust Polls. This Time, It’s Evidence Based.

 

We all get those annoying headlines stating “Biden is ahead of Trump by X.” And we’re told that it’s based on science and Big Data, so you can take it to the bank. Well, any amount of time around conservative sites like Ricochet knows that we try very hard not to take “Biden is ahead of Trump by X” as gospel.

Today, we have a legitimate, authoritative, reason to distrust polls. Today, the US Supreme Court announced its decision in Barr v American Association of Political Consultants Inc. For a little background, the Telephone Consumer Protection Act of 1991 prohibits companies from making robocalls to cellphones. Congress, in 2015, decided to add an exception to the TCPA for purposes of collecting on any debt owed to or guaranteed by the U.S. Government.

The American Association of Political Consultants Inc challenged this exception as a violation of the First Amendment. In doing so, their hope was that the entire TCPA, one of the most popular laws passed by Congress in the last 30-40 years, would also be an unconstitutional violation of the First Amendment. The 4th Circuit, when presented with this lawsuit, agreed with the AAPC that the government debt exception was unconstitutional, but that the exception could be severed from the remainder of the TCPA.

The Supreme Court, in a 6-3 decision written by Justice Kavanaugh, agreed that the US Govt debt exception could be severed from the rest of the TCPA. This means the very popular ban on robocalls to cellphones remains in force and those folks from the American Association of Political Consultants Inc cannot robocall and force-feed push polls to your cellphone. Which means, to put it kindly, a whole lot of what pollsters and political consultants measure when it comes to polling is, at best, incomplete.

So we get doubts about the efficacy of polls in addition to not having our cellphones subject to the scourge of political robocalls and push polls. A pretty good day, I would say.

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  1. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    brad2971 (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    brad2971 (View Comment):

    And since at least 2017, only 6.5% of households have only a landline. Care to guess the median age of those who are landline only?

     

    55?

    The implication is that those who are Landline Only tend to be quite elderly. My guess is that the median age is at least 70. So those pollsters and political consultants may already not be getting their desired information.

    Bahah. I misread. I thought your question was still had a landline. Not only had a landline. 

    I agree with your number if 70. 

    • #31
  2. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    I live near a nuclear plant, so I have kept my land line.

    ???

     

    I said it was an irrational decision. I fully expect in a nuclear disaster the cell towers won’t work. Maybe the underground lines will work, I will get the call, and head west as fast as I can. 

    • #32
  3. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Goldgeller (View Comment):
    But when you aren’t crunching out these weekly polls, and decide to put together something more rigorous (and expensive), the methodology of polling is fairly sound. 

    But is that what we’re getting, the expensive reliable polls?

    I say no. Because most people have no idea that some polls are not reliable, or what it takes to get reliable data. 

    Plus, these polls are so frequent, no one is spending good money this far out, that often, for the truth. 

    My opinion is these polls are designed to guide those who put their finger in the wind.  

     

     

    • #33
  4. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):
    Remember CNN used to have focus groups…Notice they dont have them anymore…

    The purpose of focus groups is to get an assortment of opinions. But the leftist media does not want that.

    Even a focus group: who would be in a focus group, to be doxxed and harassed for sharing an opinion that was not in line with the elite?

    Not me. No phone. No survey. no interview. No focus group. The only poll I’ll participate in is Nov 3 2020.

    • #34
  5. Limestone Cowboy Coolidge
    Limestone Cowboy
    @LimestoneCowboy

    Basil Fawlty (View Comment):

    Limestone Cowboy (View Comment):
    We get one ring and then poof, the call disappears, routed to another number at NOMOROBO.

    Spring for a phone with the first ring suppression option and that one ring is also silenced. Now, if only NOMOROBO could just get a better handle on local exchange spoofing . . .

    Thanks.. great idea.

    • #35
  6. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Limestone Cowboy (View Comment):
    Spring for a phone with the first ring suppression option and that one ring is also silenced.

    How would I know if my phone does that? In settings, what is that called? I want that. I’ll call it super-quarantine. 😂

    • #36
  7. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    I live near a nuclear plant, so I have kept my land line.

    ???

     

    I said it was an irrational decision. I fully expect in a nuclear disaster the cell towers won’t work. Maybe the underground lines will work, I will get the call, and head west as fast as I can.

    But who will be calling you?

    • #37
  8. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    I live near a nuclear plant, so I have kept my land line.

    ???

     

    I said it was an irrational decision. I fully expect in a nuclear disaster the cell towers won’t work. Maybe the underground lines will work, I will get the call, and head west as fast as I can.

    But who will be calling you?

    Its a robo call.  I hope the back up generator works. 

    I do live 500 yards from the emergency siren too. 

     

    • #38
  9. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    I live near a nuclear plant, so I have kept my land line.

    ???

     

    I said it was an irrational decision. I fully expect in a nuclear disaster the cell towers won’t work. Maybe the underground lines will work, I will get the call, and head west as fast as I can.

    PA + nuclear plant= Three Mile Island/ Harrisburg?

     

    • #39
  10. Jules PA Inactive
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Hoyacon (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    I live near a nuclear plant, so I have kept my land line.

    ???

     

    I said it was an irrational decision. I fully expect in a nuclear disaster the cell towers won’t work. Maybe the underground lines will work, I will get the call, and head west as fast as I can.

    PA + nuclear plant= Three Mile Island/ Harrisburg?

    Nope. We have another. 

    But I had a run in with 3MI during that little fiasco too. 

    I wonder if that is why I look so glowingly young? 😂😂

    • #40
  11. Roderic Coolidge
    Roderic
    @rhfabian

    Polls about Trump and stories about the Trump White House coming from anonymous insiders are fake news.  Period.  

    • #41
  12. Basil Fawlty Member
    Basil Fawlty
    @BasilFawlty

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    Miffed White Male (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    I live near a nuclear plant, so I have kept my land line.

    ???

     

    I said it was an irrational decision. I fully expect in a nuclear disaster the cell towers won’t work. Maybe the underground lines will work, I will get the call, and head west as fast as I can.

    But who will be calling you?

    Gregory Peck?

    • #42
  13. Basil Fawlty Member
    Basil Fawlty
    @BasilFawlty

    Jules PA (View Comment):

    Limestone Cowboy (View Comment):
    Spring for a phone with the first ring suppression option and that one ring is also silenced.

    How would I know if my phone does that? In settings, what is that called? I want that. I’ll call it super-quarantine. 😂

    I found it on my Panasonic DECT phone, hidden in the Initial Settings, Call Block, First Ring.

    • #43
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