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Life After COVID-19
One thing that we can be certain about is that the world has changed. What will the political landscape look like after the crisis has passed?
A lot of it will, of course, depend on a few factors, not the least of which is the shape of the economy. And the wildcard will be Trump’s ability to stay on message. But if I were advising POTUS these are the arguments that I would certainly be making:
Let’s first address the progressive dream of a future that’s more urbanized, more dependent on mass transit and less tolerant of tree-lined streets with individual homes set 30 feet apart. There’s a reason New York City is the epicenter of our current crisis. Nine million walking, talking virus Ubers all crammed into a single metropolitan area, topped off with subway trains crammed full of hacking humanity, all of which can make sitting in traffic on the 405 in Los Angeles pretty damn attractive. And that’s not easy to do.
And speaking of traffic, let’s also look to the Gaia worshippers and their dreams of a less industrialized and less capitalistic world. They’re about to get a peek at their reality vs their fantasies. If the jobs don’t rebound and there’s little or no hope of help from the First National Bank of Mommy and Daddy, and when their favorite local spot never reopens for their weekend amusement, then maybe they start singing a different tune. They wanted the workers of the world to unite, but they didn’t want to actually join them in communing with nature as fellow migrant workers with a Humanities degree. (I can only imagine what will happen the first time they get misgendered in the strawberry patch.)
Finally, the one argument that I feel fairly confident that Trump will handle is the subject of international trade and the sanctity of national borders. Somehow the unfettered free movement of patients, er… people… doesn’t have the appeal it used to. When COVID-19 hit the European Union the Union wasn’t as united as the Continental elite wanted their minions to believe. Not only was the free flow of people halted at the traditional national borders, so was the free flow of medicine and personal protection equipment.
And what of the free trade crowd that assured us that China could be persuaded to conduct itself to Western standards? Where is the assurance that somehow trade was going to convince them to give up their ambitions and embrace capitalism on a longterm basis? China believed it could buy the West. Now, countries are seeing the price they really have to pay.
Published in General
It turns out that disposable plastic bags are a better option than reusable canvas bags, and bleach is a better disinfectant than that fru-fru organic herbal goop.
“China believed it could buy the West. Now, countries are seeing the price they really have to pay.”
I think that is right. Decoupling, as it is called, is going to be complex and perhaps even bloody.
I don’t see the progressive dream changing. They will just demand more control and more restrictions on our behavior in order to cope with the medical dangers of crowded urban living. The Black Plague spread with the help of urban crowding, but when it was over, cities started growing again. It took a while to get the population back, but cities became more crowded than ever; however, certain behaviors were more regulated and restricted than ever before.
See, for example, The Black Plague and Early Public Health Measures.
I still oppose rule of the technocrats, by the technocrats, and for the technocrats.
There are at least two perspectives on free trade where our present situation can provide us with a learning experience. First, national security should be part of the big picture when considering how far we can go in outsourcing production. My understanding is that a probable motive in the early deception in the withholding of known facts and data about coronavirus by both the CCP and WHO was to provide China an opportunity to gather the amount of PPE needed by the medical workers in the hospitals. Second, Wall Street and corporate management really need a slight governor on their capitalistic profit engine at least to the point of recognizing that managing an American corporation might carry some responsibility besides bringing in every possible dollar. I wonder, for example, if 3M management could have been aware of the uptick in the gathering of PPE by China. I think the President had to order them to take some action on this matter in order for Americans to be supplied with our own product instead of exporting it to China.
I’d expect for at least the near future for face masks at least during the October-to-April months to become de rigueur in New York, even in years with no major viral outbreaks, and for there naturally to develop some sort of designer face mask status symbol sub-culture, where a certain brand of (overpriced) N-95 will be all the rage in Manhattan because of its looks and how darn much more comfortable it is than regular masks (and then the knockoffs will be at Walmart on Long Island and New Jersey six months later).
Nationally, there will also be more of a stigma for anyone who has the slightest sign of a cold to stay home from work; people who have to ride mass transit will probably be more adverse towards touching grab bars or congregating near the doors (those emptier front and rear subway cars aren’t going to be as empty anymore); and restaurant hygiene will be even more focused on, as people may not only want their table cleaned off, they may want it Lysoled, too, before they sit down (if I were McDonald’s, I might think about updating my early 70s “Cleaning Crew” ad for the post-COVID mindset….)
COVID-19 is the avatar of the Gods of the Copybook Headings.
I expect our betters to ignore and forget the failures of International organizations, and use the pandemic as an argument for strengthening international organizations. Their failure – if there was such a thing! – will be attributed to insufficient funding and authority. In the real world, there will be a combination of indifference and antagonism to the institutions that failed us, a burning coal seam that may or may not erupt to the surface.
The most profound effect may be the realization that all those liberties you took for granted will, upon restoration, have an asterisk attached.
Well of course. *All* governmental failures are due to insufficient funding and authority.
Out here in rural upstate NY, the cops are taping off park benches so you can’t sit for a bit while out for a walk, even if you are alone. (“You don’t know who else may have sat there today!”)
In NYC, the subways are still open and full. Thousands of people jammed together, over and over again, all day long.
They tell me most of the cases in New York State are in NYC. I’m shocked.
As of this writing there were 106,763 cases and 7,349 deaths just in the city. That’s 18% of all cases nationwide and 31% of the deaths. Now consider that the city only represents 2.5% of our population. While every death is horrible, it doesn’t change the fact that allowing the situation in New York to dictate the policies in Iowa or South Dakota is bat guano crazy.
The goals of the progressives won’t change. In fact they’ll be emboldened by all this. “Look at how much we need big government!”. “If it weren’t for massive bureaucracy and federal spending, you’d be dead!”. “This is great proof of how badly we need socialized medicine!”. Nothing will change in that regard.
What worries me more is how many “small government” “conservatives” are welcoming, even begging for, massive federal intervention including closing borders, a national lockdown or curfew, and massive bailouts. It’s like 2001 and 2008 all over again, only worse.
The “progressive” left and “conservative” right still disagree on lots of details, but the expansion of Big Government is not one of them.
Controlling the nation’s borders is not exactly an “intervention.” I’m not sure what we’re getting is a “bailout” either as that implies some measure of reckless behavior on the part of businesses. If the government closes you down and deprives you of your ability to operate your business that’s closer to compensation for a taking than a bailout.
Managing borders is a legitimate function of the federal government for sure, but shutting them down is a dramatic step that infringes on commerce and liberty and therefore shouldn’t be taken lightly. I’m not necessarily saying it wasn’t justified in this instance; I’m saying I haven’t seen as much skepticism as I think there should be. We shouldn’t just accept that whatever the feds do is the right thing to do without question.
To your second point, you are kind of begging the claim there. Is it just for folks to be compensated for a taking? Sure. But why was the taking done? Why didn’t we question or oppose it? Where is that compensation coming from, anyway? Can we really afford it? Are the feds doling this money out responsibly (of course not)? Again, I’m not necessarily saying it shouldn’t have happened, I’m saying the fact that folks aren’t more skeptical of such a massive thing is unsettling to me.
Gosh – great post. I can’t tell you how much I have thought about all those “former” crises……like multi-gender bathrooms, and climate change, and all the rest of the junk that was so important once upon a time. Let’s not forget allowing China to go un-tethered for decades…..and those manufacturing jobs aren’t coming back……. It’s going to be a very interesting election year……………..
Half of us want to close the borders on general principle. You may recall a certain politician who liked to reference a wall recently.
As far as the mass lockdown, the really egregious stuff is in the Blue cities. And this is not a BS crisis like climate change.
As for what I foresee:
Donald Trump is impeached. The democrats scream very loudly about him. What else is new? He is likely reelected, and is impeached every year until the House is taken back
Lots of new government epidemic preparedness / biological research funding
China becomes a big issue. Russia fades off the radar. I expect lots of trashing of China by the GOP, and the Left groveling and slobbering over China. Lots of saber rattling, but the big action is economic.
WHO has a shakeup and goes for an American-friendly head to keep the cash flow going.
Disaster preparedness becomes more popular. The Scarecrow might even release another book. Mask business booms as people stock up. Buy 3M and Honeywell stock.
Do you owns shares of 3M and Honeywell?
I hope you are not part of a pump and dump scheme
Not when you can blame the failure on Donald Trump.
Everything is Trumps fault because he is taking insufficient unilateral draconian action. Plus he’s a dictator.
You mean he not being enough of a tyrant? ha ha
It’s a more hyperbolic riff on the “Evil Idiot” whipsawing the media and Democratic pols did with both Reagan and Bush 43. The president is in a negative way whatever they need the president to be for the narrative of the moment, so Trump’s either a bumbling oaf with no control over anything, or he’s Hitler, and thanks to the speed of the current 24/7 news cycle, sometimes he’s both not only on the same day, but on the same one-hour news show.
Whatever they think might work to sway viewers or readers, but by switching gears so fast, I think they make it too easy for even casual political followers to see there’s an agenda invovled. In the old days, the adjustments played out over longer periods, making it easier to hide the mendacity.
Couldn’t agree more. I’m often amused at how Trump can be portrayed as superbly stupid and historically incompetent, yet ALSO single-handedly responsible for intentionally perpetrating all the evil in world.
I’m not a Trump fanboy by any means at all, but if the guy found a way to rid the world of cancer and poverty, a very large percentage of our population would scramble to find a way to spin those acts as racist and misogynist and tyrannical.