Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Day 77: COVID-19 Finding Our Way Out

 

Within the week it will be obvious that places that have been driving the headlines — Italy, New York — will have passed the peak of the epidemic. Sickness and dying have not ended, but the acceleration phase will be over for these places. This realization will create space for reflection, not just reaction. The next steps can be considered, not merely urgently taken.

Economically we are in the wilderness. GDP has or will drop by an estimated 33.5% and our debt has ballooned as government, having idled and choked the economy, is replacing productively earned value with printed money. Our next steps have to be thought through very carefully. We are where we are because we were presented with only bad choices. We can argue later about the choice we made, but for the present we need to find our way out.

But before that just a quick data snapshot:

We lost 900 souls yesterday to COVID-19. And that statistic will continue to partially mark the misery of this plague. We continue to struggle with the manufacture and deployment of personal protective equipment, particularly as the public is now asked to don masks.

So how do we find our way out?

First, we must assure that our health care system does not break. It seems clear now that we do have the capacity to handle future COVID-19 cases. There remain logistical challenges, and mistakes will be made. But we have taken the necessary actions to assure that what can be done is being done. We do know more about the disease and are learning more every day. Information is being shared broadly as things are learned. One thing that we have learned is that testing is no longer the choke point that we earlier thought it to be. Differential diagnosis was always the approach. It’s just now that there have been so many cases of COVID-19, that physicians can reasonably assume its COVID-19 when flu-like symptoms present and initiate precautions, supportive care and whatever therapies are available and appropriate to the specific patient. As we roll forward the value of testing is more in identifying and clearing persons who have developed antibodies as well as gaining more perspective on the course and extent of the epidemic.

Second, we must accept death and poor outcomes. IHME has updated their models to project fewer deaths than initially calculated. They started out at ~84,000 and then revised upward to about ~93,000 and now have gone back down to ~81,000. We are currently at 10,516 so if the model is correct we have another 70,000 deaths to experience. There are debates about the IHME model. Some think it too optimistic; some think it too pessimistic. But it is pretty clear that given the assumptions of the model there is little more that we can do to reduce the number of projected deaths. So we must accept that more restrictions on the economy are not going to avoid deaths.

Scott Adams introduced the concept of “net deaths” in his daily video blog some time ago. In the short term, reduction in economic activity reduce vehicle*, industrial, and other accidents that contribute to overall death statistics. So to some degree, we have only been trading causes of death. In the long term if we have destroyed our economy the resulting poverty will mean more deaths from a variety of causes — e.g., suicides, drug overdoses, domestic violence — even if we eliminate deaths from COVID-19. “Net deaths” will be higher than if we simply carry on with our economy and deal with the epidemic as responsibly as possible.

Third, we will have to adjust our requirements for what has been called “social distancing,” but which has been in practice a shutdown in many places. Yes, for a period of time, we will need to limit crowds and make sure that the numbers of people in places can maintain the six-foot buffer, people will be wearing masks in public, video meetings (including telemedicine) will need to be utilized, and there may be some other sensible requirements that can be done while not restricting businesses re-opening and jobs being done. People who become symptomatic must stay home or be hospitalized as appropriate. Whether we will publicly monitor people for fevers is an open question in my mind.

Fourth, we will be navigating a transition in our economy. Some businesses will never return because the way we live and our consuming preferences will have changed. And that is OK. Our economy needs to reflect the preferences and needs of consumers, not the virtuous future of the ideologues or the entrenched interests of the past. Workers will be displaced, but we need to bear the cost of transition, not regulate a return to the world before the virus. Regulations need to be relaxed even further than before. Barriers to employment through state licensing needs to be reexamined to remove barriers to people promptly seeking gainful employment. In the short term (and I would argue in the long term) progressives need to “embrace the suck” and let fossil fuels do the heavy lifting for our economy that it has done since the dawn of the industrial age.

Fifth, we need to support politically the leadership that is prepared to do steps 1 through 4, above. Freer markets, not social engineering, will save the day and bring us back to the consumer confidence and sense of personal well-being that the country enjoyed in 1 BC (before coronavirus). I don’t know any Democrat that I trust to do this. And, sadly, there are too many Republican politicians that may falter as well. But we need to be in a risk-taking future, just not risking our future with the progressives in charge.

*Just last week we got word that Mrs. Rodin’s mother’s 48-year old cardiologist died in a three-car crash on March 31.

[Note: Links to all my CoVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. OldPhil Coolidge

    so if the model is correct

    It’s not.

    • #1
    • April 6, 2020, at 4:43 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  2. MarciN Member

    Massachusetts numbers continue to go up: There were 4,492 new tests as of today at 4 o’clock (Monday, April 6); 1,337 new cases for a total of 13,837 cases; and 29 new deaths for a total of 260. 

    There is a lot of wisdom in your post. I think we will need to have a lot of national and state and local discussions going forward to address all of these problems. 

     

    • #2
    • April 6, 2020, at 4:45 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  3. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    I am so sorry about your wife’s cardiologist

     

    • #3
    • April 6, 2020, at 4:46 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  4. Unsk Member

    It appears that the rate of new case growth and the rate of deaths are slowing in NY and NJ. That is a good thing.

    In my county, ( LA County) the number of new cases has dropped to lower than 500 for the first time in a week (420 from a peak of 711) while the rate of new deaths continues to drop. That said the numbers ( particularly on a per capita basis) in LA County are quite small relative to a number of other smaller jurisdictions like Michigan. One can only speculate why that is. 

    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have an effect on the rate of new cases and deaths. Here is a report by a Doctor who owns three clinics in my area, of which I have also been to: ( Courtesy Ace of Spades):

    “Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

    Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Cardillo told Eyewitness News. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.”

    Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

    He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.”

    Dr Cardillo is advising that he is getting good results from treatment of severely infected patients. That is the first time I have heard that and it is very good news. Because of this and many other testimonials from those working in the field and the number of studies that have backed up the use of HCQ, I would think only certifiable quack and unethical doctors are not using the HCQ drug cocktail when appropriate these days. For that reason I am thinking the number of both new dying and infected is going to start to drop and those wild numbers of potential dead from Doctor Fauci would be proven to be wildly overestimated.

    • #4
    • April 6, 2020, at 4:48 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  5. Unsk Member

    It appears that the rate of new case growth and the rate of deaths are slowing in NY and NJ. That is a good thing.

    In my county, ( LA County), the number of new cases has dropped to lower than 500 for the first time in a week (420 from a peak of 711) while the rate of new deaths continues to drop. That said the numbers ( particularly on a per capita basis) in LA County are quite small relative to a number of other smaller jurisdictions like Michigan. One can only speculate why that is. 

    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have an effect on the rate of new cases and deaths. Here is a report by a Doctor who owns three clinics in my area, of which I have also been to: ( Courtesy Ace of Spades)

    “Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

    Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Cardillo told Eyewitness News. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.”

    Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

    He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.”

    Dr Cardillo is advising that he is getting good results from treatment of severely infected patients. That is the first time I have heard that and it is very good news. Because of this and many other testimonials from those working in the field and the number of studies that have backed up the use of HCQ, I would think only certifiable quack and unethical doctors are not using the HCQ drug cocktail when appropriate these days. For that reason I am thinking the number of both new dying and infected is going to start to drop and those wild numbers of potential dead from Doctor Fauci would be proven to be wildly overestimated.

    • #5
    • April 6, 2020, at 4:49 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  6. Unsk Member

    It appears that the rate of new case growth and the rate of deaths are slowing in NY and NJ. That is a good thing.

    In my county, ( LA County), the number of new cases has dropped to lower than 500 for the first time in a week (420 from a peak of 711) while the rate of new deaths continues to drop. That said the numbers ( particularly on a per capita basis) in LA County are quite small relative to a number of other smaller jurisdictions like Michigan. One can only speculate why that is. 

    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have the effect of lowering the rate of new cases and new deaths. Here is a report by a Doctor who owns three clinics in my area, of which I have also been to: ( Courtesy Ace of Spades)

     

    Dr Cardillo is advising that he is getting good results from treatment of severely infected patients. That is the first time I have heard that and it is very good news. Because of this and many other testimonials from those working in the field and the number of studies that have backed up the use of HCQ, I would think only certifiable quack and unethical doctors are not using the HCQ drug cocktail when appropriate these days. For that reason I am thinking the number of both new dying and infected is going to start to drop and those wild numbers of potential dead from Doctor Fauci would be proven to be wildly overestimated.

    • #6
    • April 6, 2020, at 4:51 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  7. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    so if the model is correct

    It’s not.

    You can read about the model here. I am not impressed. I don’t like basing things on Wuhan data. I don’t like the assumption of a continuous and perfectly mixed population. I don’t like that they have not hind-casted against past pandemics and used simple published models. I don’t like that the models are based on the outcomes of the worst places (Italy) and the worst states. I’d rather a model be based on individuals with agency and pockets of non-mixing populations, where a virus is simulated over time until the output of the simulation can match past epidemics and the current epidemic.

    Some quotes:

    While results of these models are sensitive to starting assumptions andthusdiffer between models considerably, they generally suggest that given current estimates of thebasic reproductive rate (the number of cases causedby each case in a susceptible population),25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected.6,20Based on reported case-fatality rates, these projections implythat there would bemillions of deathsin the United Statesdue to COVID-19.

    Observed COVID-19 utilization data were obtained for Italy21and the United States,29providing information on inpatient and ICUuse. Data from China30were used to approximate inpatient and ICU use by assuming that severe patients were hospitalized and critical patients required an ICU stay.

    Only 27 states have deaths greater than 0.31 per million (e-15) and were included in the model estimationalong with data on 44other admin 1 locations.

    • #7
    • April 6, 2020, at 6:14 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  8. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    duplicate comment.

    • #8
    • April 6, 2020, at 6:15 PM PDT
    • Like
    • This comment has been edited.
  9. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Freep:

    A Democratic state representative from Detroit is crediting hydroxychloroquine — and Republican President Donald Trump who touted the drug — for saving her in her battle with the coronavirus.

    State Rep. Karen Whitsett, who learned Monday she has tested positive for COVID-19, said she started taking hydroxychloroquine on March 31, prescribed by her doctor, after both she and her husband sought treatment for a range of symptoms on March 18.

    “It was less than two hours” before she started to feel relief, said Whitsett, who had experienced shortness of breath, swollen lymph nodes, and what felt like a sinus infection. She is still experiencing headaches, she said.

    Rep. Karen Whitsett

    Rep. Karen Whitsett (Photo: Michigan House of Representatives)

    Whitsett said she was familiar with “the wonders” of hydroxychloroquine from an earlier bout with Lyme disease, but does not believe she would have thought to ask for it, or her doctor would have prescribed it, had Trump not been touting it as a possible treatment for COVID-19.

    Trump, at his daily coronavirus briefings, has repeatedly touted the drug in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, despite criticism from health professionals that it is unproven and potentially dangerous. There have also been complaints that Trump’s remarks have resulted in a shortage of the drug for those people who normally use it for its recommended purposes.

    • #9
    • April 6, 2020, at 6:20 PM PDT
    • 7 likes
  10. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    For how many days have city rates of contagion been steady or falling? Three days is barely a trend, if not a predictable deviation within the curve. A week of data might be reliable. 

    I assume rates will increase again when the lockdown ends, before continuing the outbreak’s seasonal slumber. 

    • #10
    • April 6, 2020, at 7:06 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  11. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Unsk, I’d be skeptical of Dr. Cardillo’s report. As usual, it would be good to have some sort of control group.

    Notice how his claim is inconsistent with the other anecdotal reports of the effectiveness of HCQ. Per your quote, Dr. Cardillo claims that “it only works if combined with zinc.” Others have claimed effectiveness without zinc.

    I worry that a number of doctors are using claims about the effectiveness of HCQ to get some free advertising.

    • #11
    • April 6, 2020, at 8:02 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  12. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Unsk (View Comment):
    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have an effect on the rate of new cases and deaths.

    I don’t think that this part make sense, regarding cases. I don’t see how HCQ would reduce the number of cases. If effective, it could well reduce the number of deaths, which would be great news. I continue to hope for better empirical evidence to establish such effectiveness.

    • #12
    • April 6, 2020, at 8:03 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  13. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Unsk (View Comment):
    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have an effect on the rate of new cases and deaths.

    I don’t think that this part make sense, regarding cases. I don’t see how HCQ would reduce the number of cases. If effective, it could well reduce the number of deaths, which would be great news. I continue to hope for better empirical evidence to establish such effectiveness.

    It can be taken as a preventative. China produced evidence that Lupus patients exposed to C19 in a hospital did not get C19. India has recommended HCQ for healthcare workers and family members of those confirmed with C19. I suspect those exposed defeat the virus before “getting ill”.

    • #13
    • April 6, 2020, at 8:43 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  14. OmegaPaladin Moderator

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Unsk (View Comment):
    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have an effect on the rate of new cases and deaths.

    I don’t think that this part make sense, regarding cases. I don’t see how HCQ would reduce the number of cases. If effective, it could well reduce the number of deaths, which would be great news. I continue to hope for better empirical evidence to establish such effectiveness.

    It can be taken as a preventative. China produced evidence that Lupus patients exposed to C19 in a hospital did not get C19. India has recommended HCQ for healthcare workers and family members of those confirmed with C19. I suspect those exposed defeat the virus before “getting ill”.

    I would be cautious about taking HCQ for a long period unless we have more solid evidence. Most of the side effects are associated with long-term use. Where we have the best evidence is in hospital treatment, and I see no reason doctors should not prescribe it for those afflicted with Wuhan Coronavirus.

    • #14
    • April 6, 2020, at 10:01 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  15. Saint Augustine Member

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    It can be taken as a preventative. China produced evidence that Lupus patients exposed to C19 in a hospital did not get C19. India has recommended HCQ for healthcare workers and family members of those confirmed with C19. I suspect those exposed defeat the virus before “getting ill”.

    I would be cautious about taking HCQ for a long period unless we have more solid evidence. Most of the side effects are associated with long-term use. Where we have the best evidence is in hospital treatment, and I see no reason doctors should not prescribe it for those afflicted with Wuhan Coronavirus.

    My doctor parents made us take chloroquine weekly for malaria prophylaxis when we were kids–not pleasant. I understand my cousin takes it for lupus.

    You’re probably right about most people, but the cost-benefit weighing might be in favor of long-term prophylaxis for medical workers and at-risk folks.

    At least until we have the best studies and the vaccine.

    • #15
    • April 6, 2020, at 10:55 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  16. E. Kent Golding Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    Freep:

    A Democratic state representative from Detroit is crediting hydroxychloroquine — and Republican President Donald Trump who touted the drug — for saving her in her battle with the coronavirus.

    State Rep. Karen Whitsett, who learned Monday she has tested positive for COVID-19, said she started taking hydroxychloroquine on March 31, prescribed by her doctor, after both she and her husband sought treatment for a range of symptoms on March 18.

    “It was less than two hours” before she started to feel relief, said Whitsett, who had experienced shortness of breath, swollen lymph nodes, and what felt like a sinus infection. She is still experiencing headaches, she said.

    Rep. Karen Whitsett

    Rep. Karen Whitsett (Photo: Michigan House of Representatives)

    Whitsett said she was familiar with “the wonders” of hydroxychloroquine from an earlier bout with Lyme disease, but does not believe she would have thought to ask for it, or her doctor would have prescribed it, had Trump not been touting it as a possible treatment for COVID-19.

    Trump, at his daily coronavirus briefings, has repeatedly touted the drug in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, despite criticism from health professionals that it is unproven and potentially dangerous. There have also been complaints that Trump’s remarks have resulted in a shortage of the drug for those people who normally use it for its recommended purposes.

    Have to respect a Detroit Democrat, who is probably very partisan and progressive, having the honor to credit Trump.

    • #16
    • April 7, 2020, at 3:48 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  17. Gazpacho Grande' Coolidge

    10,000 deaths, half of them in the NYC area, one of the most dense urban areas in the country.

    The normal flu season takes 2x-3x that number, annually. Even if we assume an eventual 20,000 deaths, or 30,000, that’s still in the ballpark of the normal flu season.

    The percentage of total deaths against total cases is 2.9%. Without digging further, my assumption is that that is heavily skewed toward an older demographic, and those with existing conditions, etc, which would also accrue to those contracting the flu during a “normal” flu season.

    That number of deaths, though, as a percentage of the total population of the US, is .0032%.

    I realize that increased contagion could have made this much worse, and there will likely be a second wave once things normalize to some degree, folks go back to work, etc. There’s also no good way to measure if the shutdown reduced contagion (it likely did, quite a bit), or if the contagion would have been reduced through herd immunity. But it does seem like this complete shutdown of almost everything in response to something that impacts such a small percentage of the population is vastly disproportionate, in terms of a response.

    Stricter measures in dense urban areas make more sense than stricter measures in rural/less urban areas.

    Stricter measures in places with high travel inputs (major cities, and international flight cities) makes more sense than those same strict measures in rural/less urban areas.

    Stricter measures for essential and more publicly-exposed people, makes complete sense.

    I just wonder what costs we are willing to bear for actions taken, now and in the future. No one here on Ricochet would disagree that there are other deaths that have resulted from actions taken that wouldn’t have occurred otherwise, or that we have trade-offs to consider in any of these situations. I’m also concerned that we have given the gov’t now what amounts to an off switch that can be used, at any time, under the guise of “safety”, to be used by any administration we like or dislike, whenever they tell us they think it’s a good idea.

    There’s a cost we’ll pay for that one, too. We’re going to pay this one, regardless, but we’ll be paying more in the future. The actions our politicians have taken (Pelosi comes to mind here) tell us what their true intentions are, which is to aggregate power, centrally, at every turn, whenever the opportunity to do so arises, and benefits them politically or financially.

     

     

    • #17
    • April 7, 2020, at 4:32 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  18. I Walton Member

    We old folks can remain wrapped up, the rest can venture forth, follow distance cautions. This can be no more than a European summer vacation season. The disease will continue, as do all diseases but it needn’t destroy the economy. We should have some vaccination or workable cure in the near future, the economy can recuperate and we do not have to spend all that money, destroying the economy with inflation. Had he not done this he’d be blamed for all of it. In a month even Democrats may be ready to return to work.

    • #18
    • April 7, 2020, at 5:07 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  19. Ontheleftcoast Member

    GIGO in COVID-19 death certificates and therefore mortality statistics

     

    • #19
    • April 7, 2020, at 6:19 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  20. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    One problem with the CDC and FDA and the Infectious Diseases entities is that they focus too much on the previous crisis and are not forward-looking. After 9/11 they focused on biological terror in a city (not epidemic). After Swine Flu they focused on vaccinations and ignored replenishing stockpiles (not detection/response to epidemic). After Ebola and Zika they focused on projecting treatment to foreign countries and doing all testing in Atlanta at low scale (not national epidemic). It is a parade of failures.

    • #20
    • April 7, 2020, at 6:22 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  21. Brian Clendinen Member
    Brian Clendinen Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    OldPhil (View Comment):

    so if the model is correct

    It’s not.

    Some quotes:

    While results of these models are sensitive to starting assumptions andthusdiffer between models considerably, they generally suggest that given current estimates of thebasic reproductive rate (the number of cases causedby each case in a susceptible population),25% to 70% of the population will eventually become infected.6,20Based on reported case-fatality rates, these projections implythat there would bemillions of deathsin the United Statesdue to COVID-19.

    Observed COVID-19 utilization data were obtained for Italy21and the United States,29providing information on inpatient and ICUuse. Data from China30were used to approximate inpatient and ICU use by assuming that severe patients were hospitalized and critical patients required an ICU stay.

    Only 27 states have deaths greater than 0.31 per million (e-15) and were included in the model estimationalong with data on 44other admin 1 locations.

    So basically they are cherry picking the data and exclude large populous states with low activity. Yay model is pure junk science. Data is never perfect. However ignoring massive % of your population of data that appears to be around the same quality as the other data you are using (unless the data being excluded is a very small % of the over all data population). Is bull crap.

    used simple published models

    This can’t be said enough. From what I read even before all of this happened. Visits to doctors for flu like symptoms is the best predictor. The problem is with the hysteria I have a feeling the rates are overstated not sure by how much though. One people not going to the doctor for minor non flu like symptoms. Two people going to the doctor more often for minor flu like symptoms.

    New York City has already for the last three months per the CDC has a bad flu season (top level of flu since mid December). In New York City deaths rates are past anything seen in the last 10 years for P&I. So New York City is an exception to what the rest of the nation is facing. I have not found rates from the 1968 epidemic in New York City. However I bet the rates will be comparable. Based on CDC data set thru March 28th for doctors visits. The stay at home was somewhat justified (unlike Florida) because it was the worse weekly rate since before 2010 (12% verse 8% high in Feb-2018). Unless you look at the population. The absolute numbers with flu symptoms is the same as the bad two weeks in Feb-18, as Week 12/13 of 2020 (just under 20k). Its just total doctor visits has crashed in New York city.

    Granted it will take three weeks for the stay at home to start effecting rates. From what I have read when this weeks numbers are published. You should see start to see a drop in New York City of the flu.

    • #21
    • April 7, 2020, at 7:46 AM PDT
    • 1 like
    • This comment has been edited.
  22. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Unsk (View Comment):

    It appears that the rate of new case growth and the rate of deaths are slowing in NY and NJ. That is a good thing.

    In my county, ( LA County) the number of new cases has dropped to lower than 500 for the first time in a week (420 from a peak of 711) while the rate of new deaths continues to drop. That said the numbers ( particularly on a per capita basis) in LA County are quite small relative to a number of other smaller jurisdictions like Michigan. One can only speculate why that is.

    I would think that the introduction and expanded use of the HCQ regimen would start to have an effect on the rate of new cases and deaths. Here is a report by a Doctor who owns three clinics in my area, of which I have also been to: ( Courtesy Ace of Spades):

    “Dr. Anthony Cardillo said he has seen very promising results when prescribing hydroxychloroquine in combination with zinc for the most severely-ill COVID-19 patients.

    Every patient I’ve prescribed it to has been very, very ill and within 8 to 12 hours, they were basically symptom-free,” Cardillo told Eyewitness News. “So clinically I am seeing a resolution.”

    Cardillo is the CEO of Mend Urgent Care, which has locations in Sherman Oaks, Van Nuys and Burbank.

    He said he has found it only works if combined with zinc. The drug, he said, opens a channel for the zinc to enter the cell and block virus replication.”

    Dr Cardillo is advising that he is getting good results from treatment of severely infected patients. That is the first time I have heard that and it is very good news. Because of this and many other testimonials from those working in the field and the number of studies that have backed up the use of HCQ, I would think only certifiable quack and unethical doctors are not using the HCQ drug cocktail when appropriate these days. For that reason I am thinking the number of both new dying and infected is going to start to drop and those wild numbers of potential dead from Doctor Fauci would be proven to be wildly overestimated.

    The Tucson Daily Star, which I refer to as “The Red Star,” has a front page headline attacking the use of “unproven” hyderoxychloroquine as recommended by “The White House.” It has a photo of Peter Navarro the trade rep. The online version of the paper omits that story, interestingly enough. I just hope those who read the print edition, perhaps less technically oriented, don’t decline useful treatment on that basis.

    • #22
    • April 7, 2020, at 9:06 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  23. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):
    Trump, at his daily coronavirus briefings, has repeatedly touted the drug in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, despite criticism from health professionals that it is unproven and potentially dangerous

    I know of few professionals who are not bureaucrats and leftist activists who have done so.

    • #23
    • April 7, 2020, at 9:07 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  24. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):
    Trump, at his daily coronavirus briefings, has repeatedly touted the drug in combination with the antibiotic azithromycin, despite criticism from health professionals that it is unproven and potentially dangerous

    My wife has taken it at a dose of 300 mg per day for three years for rheumatoid arthritis. I have read that no person, of a group that might be assumed at greater risk (as my wife is) has contracted the virus, at least with enough symptoms to prompt testing. Since the chronic users take a smaller dose than recommended for the virus, I think the worries about a shortage are mostly political.

    • #24
    • April 7, 2020, at 9:11 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  25. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    Brian Clendinen (View Comment):
    From what I read even before all of this happened. Visits to doctors for flu like symptoms is the best predictor

    My wife spoke to a cousin yesterday who has been under treatment for melanoma which has recurred locally. Two weeks ago she went to her doctor (primary) complaining of flu symptoms. She is high risk but was refused testing for COVID and told it was just the flu. She spent a week in the hospital and had just gotten home. She is in California and is probably on MediCal as she is poor but I think she should have been tested. Fortunately, she survived no thanks to her doctor.

    • #25
    • April 7, 2020, at 9:18 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  26. Brian Clendinen Member
    Brian Clendinen Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    MichaelKennedy (View Comment):

    Brian Clendinen (View Comment):
    From what I read even before all of this happened. Visits to doctors for flu like symptoms is the best predictor

    My wife spoke to a cousin yesterday who has been under treatment for melanoma which has recurred locally. Two weeks ago she went to her doctor (primary) complaining of flu symptoms. She is high risk but was refused testing for COVID and told it was just the flu. She spent a week in the hospital and had just gotten home. She is in California and is probably on MediCal as she is poor but I think she should have been tested. Fortunately, she survived no thanks to her doctor.

    Yay I have heard quite a few people who were quite sick and did not test positive under the normal test. Did not get COVID testing. However how the data is collected is based off ObamaCare regulations that doctors fill out I believe. So I believe a case like her would still show up in the data set I am talking about. Just would not show up in the Covid data set.

    • #26
    • April 7, 2020, at 10:28 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  27. Unsk Member

    “Unsk, I’d be skeptical of Dr. Cardillo’s report. As usual, it would be good to have some sort of control group.”

    This is getting very tiresome. Jerry, the Doctors on the front lines are finding out what works. Dr. Cardillo is reporting what works with his patients and there have been many, many reports just like his. With all the info out there on the HCQ cocktail, those doctors who do not use the HCQ cocktail are simply frauds and quacks. They are letting their patients die or letting their patients get very sick due to some grossly mistaken allegiance to protocols that will not be likely coming any time soon and will not help their patients any time in the near future. The doctors on the front lines clearly know a lot more than than your FDA/CDC screw ups who have almost purposely messed up the response to COVID-19 from day one.

    Any prescription needs to be monitored for negative reactions, despite any approval from the FDA. There are all sorts of problems with drugs approved by the FDA, and there are also many drugs that could greatly help sick Americans but cannot get through the corrupt multi-billion dollar FDA approval process that heavily favors only those drugs submitted by the Big Pharma cartel. As an example the ghoulish sicko Dr Fauci wants us to wait on a drug from Big Pharma Gilead to fight COVID-19 that is also not proven that it will work but will cost thousands of dollars to use and instead chooses to poor cold water on the HCQ cocktail at nearly every opportunity that has multiple studies that show it’s efficacy and is healing thousands of people right now. What a Sicko Monster!

    It appears will be no clinical trial approvals on any COVID -19 treatments that are going to help in a timely manner. We have been given no date certain at all when we will get better trial results from the corrupt nutcases at CDC/FDA . Meanwhile Americans are dying from their negligence. So I guess we should just let people die according to you and your leftist friends who have a slavish devotion to the so-called but corrupt experts a notion that also puts more power and control over the populace in the bureaucracy- gee what a coincidence!

    • #27
    • April 7, 2020, at 10:30 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  28. MichaelKennedy Coolidge

    The fight over HCQ reminds me of Lister’s fights to get antisepsis accepted. The alleged risk of HCQ is minimal. It has been used for 50 years as malaria prophylaxis and for rheumatoid arthritis and lupus for many.

    • #28
    • April 7, 2020, at 11:19 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  29. OmegaPaladin Moderator

    Here’s the thing on HCQ – we do not have a valid treatment option. Taking HCQ or Avigan or one of the other candidates should be encouraged, as long as data is gathered on effectiveness. The alternative is only supportive treatment.

    • #29
    • April 7, 2020, at 2:08 PM PDT
    • 1 like
  30. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):

    Here’s the thing on HCQ – we do not have a valid treatment option. Taking HCQ or Avigan or one of the other candidates should be encouraged, as long as data is gathered on effectiveness. The alternative is only supportive treatment.

    This is the key point. You always grieve for people who reject efficacious medicine and take placebos instead. But if there is nothing but supportive care what’s the harm in trying? (Before someone gets on me about the QT cardiac issue: This is a prescription medication. The physician reviews the individual medical history and current prescriptions before the patient gets HCQ.)

    • #30
    • April 7, 2020, at 2:17 PM PDT
    • Like