Recommended by Ricochet Members Created with Sketch. Day 69: COVID-19 Who/What Do You Trust?

 

This morning’s data sort is by “Recoveries” as I am trying to “look up” a little even as I ask the question: Who/what do you trust? Yesterday I posted a link to a University of Washington affiliated think tank that put out some wonderful graphics attempting to make predictions, state by state (and aggregated nationally) about the bell curve for this epidemic. Or as New York Governor Cuomo said the other day, they were saving stored ventilators for the “apex” of their epidemic. The Washington think tank purported to give an answer as to when that apex might be. Within hours a number of the predictions were falsified which calls the model into question. Not just that the predicted number was wrong, but that the range was wrong as well.

I’ll get back to that in a moment. The Worldometers table pictured above has a new column: 1st Case. We can now look at country data and see it within the context of how long their particular epidemic has been going on. The circled date for the US is “January 20.” This was a man traveling through Wuhan, China early in January and returned to the US on January 15. He fell ill with pneumonia on January 16. The CDC confirmed that he was suffering from COVID-19 on January 20. The reports at the time said that “CDC officials now say there is evidence that ‘limited person-to-person spread is happening.‘”

Well, that turned out to be an understatement. (And there is some belief that the virus may have been circulating in the country undetected as far back as November.)

Helmuth von Moltke the Elder famously said: “Battle plans never survive contact with the enemy.” Which is another way of saying that things don’t go as planned, information turns out not just to be wrong, but serially wrong. That is, we don’t just get it wrong, make corrections, and get it right. We get it wrong, then wrong, and wrong again until we finally get it right.

And that is our dilemma. As we watch our systems struggle, and life and death are in the balance, how do we maintain our confidence in leadership and authority? It doesn’t help that not only do they get it wrong, but the media is crafting a narrative designed to undermine our confidence in the cohesion of our national response. We could turn off our televisions and close down our web browsers, but where would that get us?

So let’s go back to the IHME COVID-19 Projections. They are a great set of graphics. They are data-rich as you pull the sliders across looking into each state’s future. They convey important information about possible deaths and demands on health care. And, so far, they are wrong. The question that IHME has to figure out is why are they wrong? Some might say that they are not wrong because the experience may yet come back into the predicted range. And for some locations that may be true. But why are they wrong now? If there is a single key factor it may be China. From the IHME paper:

Local government, national government, and WHO websites [21–25] were used to identify data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day at the first administrative level (state or province, hereafter “admin 1”). Government declarations were used to identify the day different jurisdictions implemented various social distancing policies (stay-at-home or shelter-in-place orders, school closures, closures of non-essential services focused on bars and restaurants, and the deployment of severe travel restrictions) following the New Zealand government schema. [26] Data on timings of interventions were compiled by checking national and state governmental websites, executive orders, and newly initiated COVID-19 laws. Data on licensed bed and ICU capacity and average annual utilization by state were obtained from the American Hospital Association.[27] We estimated ICU utilization rates by multiplying total bed utilization rates by the ratio of ICU bed utilization rates over total bed utilization rates from a published study.[28] Observed COVID-19 utilization data were obtained for Italy [21] and the United States, [29] providing information on inpatient and ICU use. Data from China [30] were used to approximate inpatient and ICU use by assuming that severe patients were hospitalized and critical patients required an ICU stay. Other parameters were sourced from the scientific literature and an analysis of available patient data. [31] Age-specific data on the relative population death rate by age are available from China, [30] Italy, [32] Korea, [33] and the US [29] and show a strong relationship with age (Figure 1).

Using the average observed relationship between the population death rate and age, data from different locations can be standardized to the age structure using indirect standardization. For the estimation of statistical models for the population death rate, only admin 1 locations with an observed death rate greater than 0.31 per million (e-15) were used. This threshold was selected by testing which threshold minimized the variance of the slope of the death rate across locations in subsequent days.

***

From the projected death rates, we estimated hospital service utilization using an individual-level microsimulation model. We simulated deaths by age using the average age pattern from Italy, China, South Korea, and the US (Figure 1) due to the relatively small number of deaths included for the US (n = 46) and the fact that the US age pattern is likely biased toward older-age deaths due to the early nursing home outbreak in Washington state. For each simulated death, we estimated the date of admission using the median length of stay for deaths estimated from the global line list (10 days <75 years; 8 days 75+ years). Simulated individuals requiring admission who were discharged alive were generated using the age-specific ratio of admissions to death (Figure 3), based again on the average across Italy, China, and the US. The age-specific fraction of admissions requiring ICU care was based on data from the US (122 total ICU admissions over 509 total admissions). The fraction of ICU admissions requiring invasive ventilation was estimated as 54% (total n = 104) based on 2 studies from China. [36,37] To determine daily bed and ICU occupancy and ventilator use, we applied median lengths of stay of 12 days based on the analysis of available unit record data and 8 days for those admissions with ICU care. [37]

No doubt that IHME will be updating their model outputs as new data comes in. But in the initial formulation, they needed to draw data from places with significant case experience. And that was China, and to a lesser extent Italy, in the formulation. That puts a lot faith in the data from China. I do not want to dip into “yellow peril” territory, but the conduct of the Chinese Communist Party does not inspire confidence. No one believes the Chinese gross data reported on Worldometers. Maybe the experts with personal relations with Chinese epidemiologists can decode whatever careful language they must be using in describing what is going on there. But even as China-published data was trending downward, various reports would come out contradicting the official counts. Just the other day Report: Thousands Of Urns Shipped To Wuhan, Where The Virus Is Supposedly Under Control suggests that the virus may still be raging in some parts of China. This, even as China is lending aid to its One Belt One Road (OBOR) partner in Italy. Do we doubt that Chines Community Party would deny some segment of its own people critical supplies in order to promote its international objectives? We do not.

And there are US officials. The CDC has gone from “limited person-to-person spread” to highly contagious community spread. The President has to cut through red tape in order to create a “right to try” approach to the epidemic, not just terminally ill patients from other causes. The federal government bureaucrats sought early on to centrally control the response to the outbreak through its siloed expertise. The President has demanded a “whole of government” and private enterprise approach. The media has been as dismissive of the President in his leadership in the epidemic as they have been of his legitimacy to be President at all.

As a nation, we are being asked to make great sacrifices. The worker relief program is critical as the consumer demand has been totally cut off from some goods and services and redirected to others. Our politicians have larded it up with irrelevant stuff that we will be paying for in the coming decades as well. Our governors have restricted our liberty in the name of safety, and over time that will be the greatest sacrifice we have made if liberty is not fully restored.

But there are two kinds of sacrifices: willing and unwilling. With confidence in leadership, the sacrifices are mostly willing. Without confidence in leadership, our sacrifices are coerced. Who/what do you trust?

[Note: Links to all my COVID-19 posts can be found here.]

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  1. RushBabe49 Thatcher

    I know who I do not trust: any level of government, and anything coming out of China.

    Can Google Earth be of help in figuring out what is happening in China? They can train their cameras on individual streets in the US. Can they do that with China? If they have the capability, would they?

    • #1
    • March 29, 2020, at 9:38 AM PDT
    • 9 likes
  2. MarciN Member

    I think this virus and the Chernobyl incidents have a lot in common in terms of the unreliable information we are getting from the source of the problem. The common denominator seems to be the Communists.

    • #2
    • March 29, 2020, at 10:23 AM PDT
    • 12 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  3. DonG (skeptic) Coolidge

    The “first date” column needs a big asterisk. The first diagnosis is not the first illness. That is a fact of testing technology, which lags the spread of the disease. Every day I hear about someone with really bad flu-like illness back in January that tested negative for seasonal flu. Doctors in Italy say there was a spike in respiratory cases in Oct/Nov of 2019. It took 2 years to figure out that first MERS diagnosed case was really 2 months after a breakout in another country. I don’t know the point of the “first date” column.

     

    I have not dug into the estimation papers. It is not my field, but I assume that the better answers involve simulations instead of simple exponential formulas. Humans have agency and we certainly change behavior based on what we see on the news.

    • #3
    • March 29, 2020, at 10:46 AM PDT
    • 12 likes
  4. The Reticulator Member

    Trust, but verify. 

    • #4
    • March 29, 2020, at 11:07 AM PDT
    • 8 likes
  5. Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo… Thatcher

    In many European countries, including Italy, the rate of increase in known cases is slowing down. And in Italy the death toll has stopped rising over the past few days though it is not yet declining.

    • #5
    • March 29, 2020, at 11:25 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  6. Marythefifth Member
    Marythefifth Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Sorry if this question was answered long ago, but what’s with the huge difference between Recovered cases and Active cases? Is it just that most who recover never think to or bother to report it? If at least half or more cases are mild to moderate, I would think the recovery time is, what, 2 weeks? 

    • #6
    • March 29, 2020, at 11:42 AM PDT
    • 5 likes
  7. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    • #7
    • March 29, 2020, at 11:54 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  8. The Reticulator Member

    Marythefifth (View Comment):

    Sorry if this question was answered long ago, but what’s with the huge difference between Recovered cases and Active cases? Is it just that most who recover never think to or bother to report it? If at least half or more cases are mild to moderate, I would think the recovery time is, what, 2 weeks?

    I don’t know the answer, but not every jurisdiction is tracking recovered cases. And of those that are doing it, I’ll bet they don’t all use the same criteria much less the same methods. So of the data we’re seeing, those are probably some of the least useful for comparing regions. Within a region they might be useful if the same tracking is done all the time, but I’m pretty sure that not every jurisdiction has been doing it the same way all along. 

    • #8
    • March 29, 2020, at 12:07 PM PDT
    • 4 likes
  9. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    don’t trust:

    WHO

    China

    Iran

    FDA

    CDC

     

    All models are wrong but some are useful.

    We live in an imperfect world with imperfect information.

    Does that mean we give up and prepare for the end of the world?

    of course not

    All our decisions will be imperfect but don’t let perfection be the enemy of the good.

    There are many shades of imperfection.

     

    • #9
    • March 29, 2020, at 12:21 PM PDT
    • 9 likes
  10. The Reticulator Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    don’t trust:

    WHO

    China

    Iran

    FDA

    CDC

     

    All models are wrong but some are useful.

    We live in an imperfect world with imperfect information.

    Does that mean we give up and prepare for the end of the world?

    of course not

    All our decisions will be imperfect but don’t let perfection be the enemy of the good.

    There are many shades of imperfection.

     

    Add to your lists: Democrats, Progressives. They deny their intentions until it’s time for them to start boasting of what they accomplished.

    • #10
    • March 29, 2020, at 12:27 PM PDT
    • 8 likes
  11. Brian Clendinen Member
    Brian Clendinen Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Never trust and prophet unless they have a history of being right. With the exception of couple week forecast. I never rust an experts long term forecast on anything new.

    • #11
    • March 29, 2020, at 2:07 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  12. katievs Member
    katievs Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    I trust Trump.

    I don’t imagine that he’s right in all his acts and decisions, but I trust that he genuinely loves America. He cares about human life. He’s concerned about economic consequences of drastic measures, and he’s paying close attention to a stunning number and variety of advisers: statisticians, medical people, military people, diplomats, economists, politicians, etc.

    He’s praying. And he’s doing his honest best to do what can be done, including the monumental task of calming and reassuring the public in the face of the Dem/media complex’s maniacal effort to make us panic and despair.

    I trust Mike Pence too.

    • #12
    • March 29, 2020, at 5:33 PM PDT
    • 14 likes
    • This comment has been edited.
  13. Jason Obermeyer Member

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):

    I know who I do not trust: any level of government, and anything coming out of China.

    Can Google Earth be of help in figuring out what is happening in China? They can train their cameras on individual streets in the US. Can they do that with China? If they have the capability, would they?

    I don’t know what Google’s capability to update in real time is. For example, the satellite view for the new high school in town shows it still under construction; its been finished for almost a year. 

    • #13
    • March 29, 2020, at 5:36 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  14. Jason Obermeyer Member

    Gumby Mark (R-Meth Lab of Demo&hellip; (View Comment):

    And in Italy the death toll has stopped rising over the past few days though it is not yet declining.

    You should probably rewrite this.

    • #14
    • March 29, 2020, at 5:38 PM PDT
    • 1 like
    • This comment has been edited.
  15. M. Brandon Godbey Member

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    The “first date” column needs a big asterisk. The first diagnosis is not the first illness. That is a fact of testing technology, which lags the spread of the disease. Every day I hear about someone with really bad flu-like illness back in January that tested negative for seasonal flu. Doctors in Italy say there was a spike in respiratory cases in Oct/Nov of 2019. It took 2 years to figure out that first MERS diagnosed case was really 2 months after a breakout in another country. I don’t know the point of the “first date” column.

     

    I have not dug into the estimation papers. It is not my field, but I assume that the better answers involve simulations instead of simple exponential formulas. Humans have agency and we certainly change behavior based on what we see on the news.

     

    Therein lies the problem:

    If COVID-19 has been lingering among us since late November, there it would be reasonable to assume that literally hundreds of thousands of people had it and “walked it off” as the flu, viral pneumonia, or bronchitis of unknown origin. These people would, in theory, be carrying around anti-bodies today and could reasonably get back to work ASAP, which our economy desperately needs. Perhaps all of this self (and forced) quarantining is for nothing. Of course, if this was true, why was there no sharp uptick in pneumonia deaths?

    If COVID-19 has not been lingering since late November, then all of our current pains seem justified.

    Worse case scenario? We take all of these precautions and then, as soon as we come out in the open, we get a massive uptick in cases–with a destroyed economy to boot.

    • #15
    • March 29, 2020, at 7:16 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  16. TeamAmerica Member
    TeamAmerica Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    • #16
    • March 29, 2020, at 7:47 PM PDT
    • 5 likes
  17. The Reticulator Member

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    The beauty of it is that everyone can say, “If you did it the way I specified, I would have been right.”

    • #17
    • March 29, 2020, at 8:21 PM PDT
    • 3 likes
  18. Scott R Member
    Scott R Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    katievs (View Comment):

    I trust Trump.

    I don’t imagine that he’s right in all his acts and decisions, but I trust that he genuinely loves America. He cares about human life. He’s concerned about economic consequences of drastic measures, and he’s paying close attention to a stunning number and variety of advisers: statisticians, medical people, military people, diplomats, economists, politicians, etc.

    He’s praying. And he’s doing his honest best to do what can be done, including the monumental task of calming and reassuring the public in the face of the Dem/media complex’s maniacal effort to make us panic and despair.

    I trust Mike Pence too.

    Hey, Katievs. Not sure if you’ve been gone awhile or if it’s just been my bad luck that I haven’t seen your comments in awhile. In any case, hi!

    My theory on Trump is that he’s at his worst when he’s bored. That’s when his inner 12yr old rules. But these are not boring times, and after a shaky start adult Trump is engaged and on his game. But every day brings only more terrible options. I pray that he’ll be wise, while not at all sure myself what’s wise.

     

    • #18
    • March 29, 2020, at 8:35 PM PDT
    • 10 likes
  19. MISTER BITCOIN Member

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    I hope I”m wrong

     

    • #19
    • March 29, 2020, at 8:36 PM PDT
    • 2 likes
  20. Sisyphus (hears Xi laughing) Coolidge
    Sisyphus (hears Xi laughing) Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Love the slider on the graph. This nonsense doesn’t even peak in Virginia until mid-May, at which point most ICU beds will have two Covid patients. So no one else is allowed to get sick, thank you. Now I just need to find myself a copy of Civ Sick, the god game where you can preside over the fall of the human race at the hands of our new viral overlords.

    I trust no one. Let’s be real about this. It is a fallen world.

    On a scale of one to ten, with one being no way, Jose, and 10 being yeah, sure, whatever:

    Xi and the CCP – -∞
    Pelosi – -10
    Trump – 3
    Fauci – 5 (medicine) 2 (public policy)
    God – ∞

    • #20
    • March 30, 2020, at 2:29 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  21. Chris Member

    Thanks for your continuing posts.

    As for the IHME slider, I’m a bit skeptical of its utility as it – by necessity – paints with a very broad brush. When this is over, I’d be interested in seeing their own review of the model.

    For example, while it is broadly true that Texas as a state has not implemented 3 of 4 criteria, the Governor has strongly endorsed and encouraged local government to implement the policies they deem appropriate. For big cities and suburban counties at least, places where people congregate (restaurants, bars, churches, gyms, white collar offices) have long been closed and I have no reason to believe this hasn’t filtered down throughout the state as, anecdotally, out of state relatives in rural areas have not had restaurants open for dine-in much longer than the slider shows their state having a statewide ban. Concern is real and people are acting on it.

     

    • #21
    • March 30, 2020, at 5:23 AM PDT
    • 3 likes
  22. katievs Member
    katievs Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Scott R (View Comment):

    katievs (View Comment):

    I trust Trump….

    Hey, Katievs. Not sure if you’ve been gone awhile or if it’s just been my bad luck that I haven’t seen your comments in awhile. In any case, hi!

    Hi Scott. I’ve remained a subscriber, but only swing by occasionally. I come especially when I want fellowship in my admiration for Trump. Which is ironic, since I left for ages starting three years ago because I couldn’t stand the combination at the time of Trump-boosting and pope-bashing on the site. I was a NeverTrumper then—the kind that wrote-in that guy whose name I forget. Now I’m a fan. I think he’s been a remarkably good president, and I think the opposition to him has been exposed as far worse than I’d imagined in my most cynical and despairing moods. 

    I think I’ll come by more often now that we’re in such a consequential election year. I miss the friendly engagement.

     

     

    • #22
    • March 30, 2020, at 5:28 AM PDT
    • 6 likes
  23. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    Since we are already at 3,000 dead with another almost 3000 in serious critical condition, and no where near the peak, I wouldn’t bet on in.

    • #23
    • March 30, 2020, at 6:46 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  24. Kozak Member
    Kozak Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Item.

    Boris Johnson’s advisers say Beijing’s statistics on its cases could be downplayed by a factor of 40

    Item

    Outside one funeral home, trucks shipped in about 2,500 urns on both Wednesday and Thursday, according to Chinese media outlet Caixin. Another picture published by Caixin showed 3,500 urns stacked on the ground inside. It’s unclear how many of the urns had been filled.

    One funeral home in Wuhan with over 5000 urns.

     

    Do you think maybe President Trump and the administration might just have some information that makes them think drastic action is needed?

    Again people, watch what they do, not what they say.

     

    • #24
    • March 30, 2020, at 6:57 AM PDT
    • 4 likes
  25. Scott R Member
    Scott R Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Kozak (View Comment):

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    Since we are already at 3,000 dead with another almost 3000 in serious critical condition, and no where near the peak, I wouldn’t bet on in.

    Worldometer and JH have us at 2500 but only because it looks like NY/NJ didn’t fully report yesterday. Any idea of their true numbers from yesterday? I can’t find them anywhere.

    • #25
    • March 30, 2020, at 7:33 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  26. Hugh Member

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    Pretty sure that was Nostradamus

     

    • #26
    • March 30, 2020, at 7:54 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  27. Rodin Member
    Rodin

    Scott R (View Comment):
    Worldometer and JH have us at 2500 but only because it looks like NY/NJ didn’t fully report yesterday. Any idea of their true numbers from yesterday? I can’t find them anywhere.

    I got nothing. Worldometer is showing 2605 but they don’t have the NY/NJ updates:

    Due to delayed and incomplete reporting from New York State, we had to make adjustments to yesterday’s totals in order to maintain the correct attribution of historical figures. US figures for Sunday, March 29 could still be incomplete.

    • #27
    • March 30, 2020, at 8:27 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  28. Ray Kujawa Coolidge

    M. Brandon Godbey (View Comment):

    DonG (skeptic) (View Comment):

    The “first date” column needs a big asterisk. The first diagnosis is not the first illness. That is a fact of testing technology, which lags the spread of the disease. Every day I hear about someone with really bad flu-like illness back in January that tested negative for seasonal flu. Doctors in Italy say there was a spike in respiratory cases in Oct/Nov of 2019. It took 2 years to figure out that first MERS diagnosed case was really 2 months after a breakout in another country. I don’t know the point of the “first date” column.

     

    I have not dug into the estimation papers. It is not my field, but I assume that the better answers involve simulations instead of simple exponential formulas. Humans have agency and we certainly change behavior based on what we see on the news.

     

    Therein lies the problem:

    If COVID-19 has been lingering among us since late November, there it would be reasonable to assume that literally hundreds of thousands of people had it and “walked it off” as the flu, viral pneumonia, or bronchitis of unknown origin. These people would, in theory, be carrying around anti-bodies today and could reasonably get back to work ASAP, which our economy desperately needs. Perhaps all of this self (and forced) quarantining is for nothing. Of course, if this was true, why was there no sharp uptick in pneumonia deaths?

    If COVID-19 has not been lingering since late November, then all of our current pains seem justified.

    Worse case scenario? We take all of these precautions and then, as soon as we come out in the open, we get a massive uptick in cases–with a destroyed economy to boot.

    I’m thinking of a slightly different worse case scenario. Footdragging intentional and otherwise on deployment of an effective antibody test to justify extensive lasting and crippling intrusions on the economy to perpetuate near total socialistic control far longer than any response to a virus would otherwise require. It could nullify Trump and bring the progressive socialists closer to the goal they are seeking without having to remove Trump from the Presidency.

    • #28
    • March 31, 2020, at 9:38 AM PDT
    • 2 likes
  29. Ray Kujawa Coolidge

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    I’m calling Fauci Doctor Doom. I think he’s earned it.

    • #29
    • March 31, 2020, at 9:42 AM PDT
    • 1 like
  30. Hugh Member

    Ray Kujawa (View Comment):

    TeamAmerica (View Comment):

    MISTER BITCOIN (View Comment):

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

    for the usa, the projected total is 81,000.

    that seems high to me but not ludicrous.

    I predict total death count to be 30,000 to 60,000

     

    Fwiw, Scott Adams, the first person to predict (in 2015!) Trump would be elected, now estimates a U.S death toll about 5,000. Dr. Fauci predicts a toll of 100k t0 200k. We’ll see.

    I’m calling Fauci Doctor Doom. I think he’s earned it.

    Lets hope we can change it to “Mr. Exaggeration”

    • #30
    • March 31, 2020, at 10:53 AM PDT
    • 1 like