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Fear of Corbyn and the Brussels Sugar Candy Mountain
For one brief moment, Britain found itself. They tossed Theresa May’s idiotic ‘deal’ into the garbage can voting 432 to 202, a crushing defeat. No British government had ever lost a vote by a margin this big. Then only one day later Britain completely lost it and resisted the vote of no confidence put forward by Corbyn clinging to the grotesque leadership of Theresa May by a slim margin of 325-306.
What happened? The same thing that has been happening all along. When a concrete proposal of a pseudo-compromise Brexit is put forward everyone sees the threat it poses and backs away. As soon as the threat is lifted two rather disgusting traits are revealed. First, an inordinate fear of the electability of Jeremy Corbyn. Jeremy Corbyn has no appeal to those who normally vote conservative and he splits his own Labor voters. Corbyn is the weakest of challengers. Yet, everyone acts as if this rather unappetizing character could stand against Boris. Ridiculous. Second, the Brussels Sugar Candy Mountain emerges again. After the disgusting display of EU conniving that pushed May into her pathetic sellout, somehow the absurd delusion that you can get a good deal from the EU once again fogs the minds of so many in Parliament. You can’t make a good deal with a bad guy. The EU is a bad guy and everyone in Europe knows it by now. Somehow the goofy idea that the EU would treat Britain fairly only resides amongst the British.
There is no Brexit deal. The entire world trades by WTO rules. Everyone, including the interests in France and Germany, are completely aware of these rules and are perfectly willing to accept British goods on these terms as they are willing to sell Britain their goods on these terms. There is no economic downside to a WTO Brexit for Great Britain. There most certainly is a political downside for the EU itself if Britain leaves clean for WTO terms. This will completely humiliate an already shaken EU. Merkel and Macron are the twin pillars that hold the EU up. They are both in very bad political shape. If a WTO Brexit were to go through it is very likely that both Merkel and Macron would be out very soon. They would be replaced by far more conservative governments. There would be a demand to compromise with Britain, certainly by the German car industry, and most of the rest of the EU has far more respect for a pound sterling than it has for Brussels bloviating. At the same time, the policy of unlimited mass migration would come to an end. Finally, the EU itself would be forced to reform and accept real democratic institutions. If it did not reform then the EU is doomed.
Britain might stumble into March 29 and simply start trading on WTO terms. Theresa May might just resign and new elections can be held. The dread of Corbyn would be overcome by a wide margin when Boris stomps him. However, given the self-delusional nature of the British government under the profoundly idiotic leadership of Theresa May, it will probably find another worthless way to drag this nightmare out beyond March 29.
Just when I wanted to go to the happy ending I’ve got to listen to more of this bloviating nonsense.
https://youtu.be/OXH3awDTQq4
Alls well that ends well except the damn thing isn’t over yet.
Published in General
Ah. Now I grok the Brexit.
He doesn’t have to stand against Boris. he only has to stand against labour challengers. It’s not like Nancy Pelosi could debate any Republican one on one.
You really wouldn’t have to rewrite the lyrics at a all.
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains
There’s a land that’s fair and bright
Where the handouts grow on bushes
And you sleep out every night
Where the boxcars all are empty
And the sun shines every day
And the birds and the bees
And the cigarette trees
The lemonade springs
Where the bluebird sings
In the Big Rock Candy Mountains
9th,
Yep, it’s all Wunderbar in the EU. The torturous rules and deathly slow bureaucratic process over which you have no control whatsoever (as of now, after a May ‘deal’ you’d have even less) shouldn’t deter you. The fact that if you do well the EU will suck money out of you and redistribute it shouldn’t deter you. The fact that the EU might invade your free election and try to dictate who your Prime Minister will be shouldn’t deter you. The fact that the EU might use the Irish ‘backstop’ to dismember Great Britain’s constitutional makeup shouldn’t deter you.
Everything is Wunderbar in the EU. Why don’t you just take your intellectual opiates and enjoy the ride.
Regards,
Jim
I don’t know why you think Boris is such a shoe in to win? I have plenty of reasons to think Corbyn is a scoundrel, too many in fact. But he isn’t so big a scoundrel that he couldn’t get to be head of Labor. And I don’t see Boris in charge of anything so how popular is he with the Tories? In the last election the Tories lost seats, their governing in the last few years has been lack luster. Ultimately doesn’t the control of parliament come down to individual races in the various districts across the UK?
I asked this question on your previous thread, but I will ask it again here because I think it is something many like me not intimately familiar with British politics would want to know. Which is how would Boris actually come to lead the Tory party? Because I don’t get how that works. Its not like picking a presidential nominee right? The Tories would have to internally vote to make him head of the party, and then if they won majority in Parliament he would be named Prime Minister right? But he has to be an MP?
Val,
If May resigns the Tory members of Parliament have their own election to see who leads the party. Then, of course, they would need a majority in Parliament to take the Prime Minister and be the government. This can actually take place if May resigns. I just said that Boris might very well face some internal opposition from Leadsome and others. I think he would have the broadest appeal. He has also done very well with the Northern Irish and he would have their support. In this event, Boris could actually become Prime Minister before an election if she resigns. May became Prime Minister this way when Cameron resigned.
Regards,
Jim
If this crisis ends with a no-deal exit, another string of crises will be waiting in the wings. How to control the land border with Ireland. Close it again, reversing the agreement that ended the Troubles and enabled growth for both Ireland and the UK, especially its Irish province? Leave it open and fail to enforce UK laws on flows of goods and people? Then depending on how that is resolved, Scotland will come forward with new grievances based on the Irish solution, then…
Mark,
This is really a triviality cooked up by the EU for the express purpose of extorting Great Britain. All of these things are minor and will be handled by Ireland and Great Britain with quick and simple pragmatic agreements that profit them both. Ireland only trades 15% of its total trade with Great Britain and I don’t think that’s even slightly at risk.
…and a squirrel might lose his nuts in Montana so we’d better close down the pipeline until we can study the squirrel for the next decade.
Please!
Regards,
Jim
That speech by Michael Gove was quite the barn-stormer. It was like listening to William Hague, who also had a gift for rhetorical flight.
In terms of the contest for next Tory leader, I think Gove has a stronger chance than Boris, who’s popular but not as respected. I think Boris’ problem is staying the course. He can get distracted and knocked off course easily. He doesn’t sustain criticism, attacks, or persistent pressure very well.
Bereket,
You know the old saying, “fool me once shame on you, fool me twice shame on me.” After the original Brexit victory, Gove proved that his rhetoric is just rhetoric and no substance. He has no real principles and is just a slimy backstabber. Everyone in the country knows this. Anyone who could vote for Gove either is an idiot, hates themselves, or hates Britain. (BTW, all three are a high probability in any of the creatures that are May’s little boy supporters)
No, anybody with any integrity couldn’t give Gove a second look. They are trying to taunt Boris. It won’t work.
Regards,
Jim
Thanks for these reports – I get more out of them than the ‘real’ news.
Basically: any MP who wants can stand (why it’s “run” on one side of the Atlantic and “stand” on the other I don’t know). Then MPs vote in elimination rounds until they get it down to two. Then the broader Party membership votes. This is not quite like a primary because Party membership is more exclusive — you have to pay dues. Theresa May became leader — and PM — by default in 2016 when the last alternative standing, Andrea Leadsom, dropped out.
Here’s the dynamic: the broader Party membership has been strongly Eurosceptic for years and voted Leave. The parliamentary party — Tory MPs — were majority Remain (though not overwhelmingly so). There’s an establishment/base divide that would be somewhat familiar to Republicans (but the parallels shouldn’t be over-exaggerated).
Boris Johnson is not popular within parliamentary party. He won’t get a majority among MPs. But it is entirely possible — though very far from certain — that he could be the one able to unite the parliamentary Leavers (including both those who voted Leave and those who prioritize respecting the result) and take second place. Smart people say (and it matches my own general sense) that if Boris’s name gets to a ballot of the general membership he wins.
Actually, though, presuming it’s a Leaver vs a Remainer (which is most likely in some form), the Leaver is almost certain to win. I don’t think it will be Gove. I think his treatment of Boris last time around and his support for May’s deal will eliminate him. My preference would be David Davis, for what that’s worth — principled, experienced, and more conservative than most of the other options (perhaps too conservative for the Tories in 2019).
The American coverage I’ve seen of the past few months of Brexit — including on conservative sites — is uniformly not very good. It’s a moment when all the intricate little details of British politics are front-page news, some important and some not really. It’s confusing for those who know British politics best, and challenging to explain in few words. But no one knows how this is really going to go down.
It has long been my position that only the English should rule Britain. Until quite recently that was the position of the English as well.
Theresa May should have resigned on Tuesday (actually, back in December, or maybe earlier).
Since she didn’t and evidently won’t — and her own party can’t force her out until December — it wouldn’t be Corbyn vs Boris, it would be Corbyn vs May. So there’s nothing to be gained for Conservative Leavers (and the DUP) in bringing down the government. They can run down the clock and wait to see what May’s real Plan B is. Voting no confidence is a last resort.
Makes sense. In the meantime, EU Commission will extend the deadline with a strongly worded memorandum to organize a new referendum. What a “riot” that will be !
Victoria Nuland said it best “F…. the E.U“. Britain prides itself on being stoic and able to weather the storm. It would be a defining moment, if Britain decides to rollover and submit to the E.U.
Worth adding as a background note to the drama: if you think leaving the EU would be a disaster and are determined to do anything to remain at any cost, you quite realistically view this as your last chance. It’s just possible to imagine a case where Britain leaves with no deal because of parliamentary gridlock but the EU accepts a referendum to rejoin a couple months later — but basically this is it. On the other hand if you want to leave you do not view this as your last chance, for multiple reasons. This is partly why so many MPs didn’t accept May’s argument that they had to vote for her deal or risk no Brexit. There is an entirely realistic chance of a future Prime Minister campaigning on a promise to take Britain out of the EU, and winning a comfortable majority.
Thanks, Jim. We are on the same page pretty much, with the disclaimer that I feel pretty much uninformed on the Irish question*. I expect that
*I’ve read what sound like fear-mongering claims by the anti-Brexit folks that ending the Agreement (I forget what it was called, sorry) that brought peace between Irish radicals and the UK will by itself restore the status quo ante. My perception is that things have changed a lot since the troubles, and the radicals would have a hard time re-igniting the violence even if the hard border is restored. A hard border doesn’t have to be as hard as it was before; it could be like the US and Canada, or even softer, I presume.
Mark,
Your thoughts on this exactly. Rees-Moog went himself to that border. He was interviewed by a not very positive journalist and they made the rounds talking to real people trading across the border. I doubt this is a problem that can’t be handled well or won’t be handled well. Your analogy of the U.S. and Canada is the perfect model.
Regards,
Jim
Another interesting question is how are MPs selected. It is done centrally in the Conservative Party. There are a few candidates submitted to choose from. And local membership chooses among them. It is a very inside job with the party’s money people having a large input. There is a way to deselect the candidate, but no assurance of who the replacement will be. It’s one of the reasons Conservative Party membership is a small fraction of Labour Party membership. Labour is much more democratic in selection of MPs and their leader. Corbyn was chosen at the grassroots and not by MPs.
Gove hasn’t a snowball’s chance in hell. He has double crossed everybody. He is a total and complete weasel.
Wouldn’t it be more like the US and Mexico?
One of the big reasons for Brexit was so the UK could regain control of its immigration policies. After the UK leaves, if any EU citizen wants to sneak into England, wouldn’t the easiest route be to book a cheap flight to Ireland, sneak across the border into Northern Ireland, then hop another cheap flight to London?
Also, “table a motion” has nearly opposite meaning.
One aspect you miss is that Brits wanted to have greater ability to allow in non-EU persons.
A related aspect you did not address is Ireland’s Border controls. Even if the Brits are liberal, will the EU allow Ireland to be?
Clearly, a regime of differential scrutiny is possible: one inbound UK line for Irish (or other favored) passports with relatively low scrutiny and no visa requirements; and one or more lines with higher scrutiny/requirements; and similar on the Irish side. Again the EU’s veto looms large.
The bigger issue may be in goods shipment/tariffs. The EU is not likely to budge.
Not much more democratic in Corbyn’s case — it was actually a similar process. The parliamentary party still selected a slate of MPs and sent them to the membership (though it wasn’t just two as the conservatives do). Nobody took Corbyn seriously — including the MPs who voted for him at the time, some of whom quite openly said they regretted helping him get his name on the ballot.
Such things are always being prophesied and rarely happen, but if the Conservatives fail to deliver Brexit I think there is a real possibility of a major party split and a re-alignment. If a new party emerged primarily dedicated to delivering Leave, I think a more democratic process for choosing MPs and leadership could potentially be a beneficial selling point.