The easy — though not entirely wrong — analysis of the ongoing government shutdown is that it’s a political event rather than a market or economic event. For Republicans and Democrats, the shutdown is the ultimate cage match with big potential electoral and policy implications. As the Washington Post characterizes the standoff: “[President Trump] has to win. His entire reputation, his entire relationship with the base, it’s all a function of being committed on big things and not backing down. If he backs down on this, Pelosi will be so emboldened that the next two years will be a nightmare.” Big stakes, to say the least.

But not so much for Wall Street. At least not yet. Perfect example: JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli has lowered his estimate of first-quarter real GDP growth to 2.0 percent from 2.25 percent with the “primary reason” for the revision being the shutdown. And although the longer the shutdown lasts the greater the risk of “spillover to the private sector,” Feroli adds, his downward revision to growth this quarter implies a lift to the second quarter (assuming the shutdown is over). So, even-steven, more or less.

Well, maybe for the short-term. But what if the shutdown keeps going and going and going? Certainly the economic damage is cumulative as federal workers don’t get paid. Then there’s how the shutdown generates all sorts of micro-cracks in the long-running expansion. In The Wall Street Journal, reporters Josh Mitchell and Sharron Nunn tell the story of Groennfell Meadery in Colchester, VT, whose owners find their $1.3 million SBA loan on hold because of the shutdown. No loan means having to delay the purchase of three massive fermenters and a move to a bigger facility. Expect to hear more stories like that at the shutdown continues.

But as they say on Twitter — usually sarcastically in reference to a popular meme — that’s Small Brain thinking. Big Brain remembers that the federal debt limit gets reinstated on March 2. And while the ceiling doesn’t need to be raised for some time — maybe until October — the economics team at Goldman Sachs notes that the “ongoing shutdown raises the possibility of a debt limit showdown,” although new budget rules make that more difficult than in the past. Such a confrontation does have market and economic implications as was seen during the 2011 debt-ceiling crisis.

Then there’s the Galaxy Brain perspective: American wealth isn’t just derived from its entrepreneurial people, natural resources, fantastic companies, and world-class universities. Even more important is the entire democratic capitalist American system, including rule of law. Government is supposed to follow the rules. Contracts and property rights are enforced. The political system is predictable in all the best ways, including the reticence of policymakers to push the system to its breaking point. Investors, for instance, should be nervous when presidents claim novel emergency powers to force through their agenda when Congress balks. On this subject, here is a bit from a great blog post by money manager Josh Brown:

The United States stock market currently sells at a price-to-earnings (PE) multiple of 21.8 times (trailing 12 months) and a cyclically adjusted price-to-earnings (CAPE) multiple of 26.4 times. In comparison, the Russian stock market sells at a PE of 9.1 times and a CAPE of 5.9. It is the “cheapest” large stock market in the world.  … The reason for this discount is that these are shares of stock that trade in a dictatorship, wholly controlled by the whims of the Kremlin. CEOs can be jailed for operating or even speaking against those in power. Assets can be confiscated or reassigned at will. State control of corporate entities does not encourage investors to pay up for minority stakes in these businesses. …  Put simply, US stocks, bonds and real estate are the most trusted and relied upon financial “risk assets” on planet earth. We have strong contract law and, as a result, people all over the world allocate to these instruments with confidence. We should not take this for granted or fool ourselves into believing it’s permanent. … The existence of Microsoft, the corporation, is a story we’ve told ourselves and everyone has bought into it. This means we all agree that it should be afforded certain rights and protections and that its shareholders should too — this includes the protection of its property and the legal recourse for it to defend itself from thieves, bad actors, corrupt executives, etc. If this story we’ve all agreed upon begins to fall apart in the eyes of the people with money invested, then so will the company’s valuation. The implications for a massive loss of confidence in our rule of law are too terrifying to consider.

That’s Galaxy Brain thinking, but for real. It is the sort of big-picture perspective that’s needed in Washington right now as America’s reputation as a serious nation continues to erode.