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Mike Murphy: Onward to 2020! (Conversations With Bill Kristol)
Veteran political strategist and commentator Mike Murphy assesses where the Republicans and the Democrats stand as we look toward 2020. What are President Trump’s prospects for reelection? Where are the divisions in the Democratic Party, and which Democratic candidates might prevail in the primaries? And could there be a successful primary challenge to Trump? Murphy shares his thoughts on these and other pressing questions with his usual blend of political insight and humor.
“Here’s my pitch to you for the Weekly Standard with good cover art…” — Mike Murphy, near the end of the interview
It’s the end of something alright.
…
The one point Murphy makes that has me worried is that voters, especially young voters, are energized to vote against Trump in the general election, but perhaps the increase from 2018 to 2020 will not be as much as he thinks. Some Trump voters will have died off by 2020, but perhaps the anti-Trump vote is not be as strong as the people living in the media centers think.
Bloomberg won’t win the vote of one serious gun owner in the country. Then there are the people who don’t own guns and don’t like him anyway. Then there are the people who like salt and large soft drinks…
Bloomberg would have to win swing states. What swing states is Bloomberg going to win?
Why would Murphy care? He’s in it for the money. The money is in television commercials where Murphy gets a percentage, not winning. He’s a leach.
As for the chicken-hawk Kristol, he’s pure evil and a menace to the well-being of the country.
I listened to the recording again last night. I frankly don’t see what people are objecting to.
Mr. Murphy is truly an acquired taste – and easy to disagree with – but the *personal* animus directed toward him/Mr. Kristol seems a bit overheated. Just my two cents’-worth.
Trump won by less than 100,000 votes in three states. So really all the Democrats need is just 100,000 more people to vote for their guy in between WI, MI, and PA and they win. Do you think it possible for 100,000 Trump voter to die of old age by then in those three states? Will Trump have gained any one new? In PA the Dems routed Reps. And we know in 2016 there was decline in urban voting in WI and MI that probably made the difference in those states. Also don’t forget the third party candidates? What was the split among them? How many were disaffected Dems protest voting against Hillary? Will they do so in 2020? Of Republicans who voted third party in 2016 how many will come to vote for Trump in 2020?
Trump not only lost the popular vote he only won the electoral vote narrowly. This isn’t a hard lift for Dems, they almost won with Hillary last time. And she was an bad candidate. Imagine if they would have had a decent candidate or one not mired in scandal after scandal. Do you think Biden would have lost PA to Trump?
I agree with you entirely.
However, I think that it is even worse.
In Arizona, W., Romney and McCain all won by 9-11 points. Trump won in 2016 by only 3 points. Arizona is a suburban state, and it recoiled from Trump. After not electing a statewide Dem for 10 years, it elected 4 statewide Dems, especially against Republicans who associated themselves closely to Trump. Dems now control the Arizona Senate-House Delegation 6-5, for the first time since 1964. If Trump runs in 2020, he will lose Arizona and other suburban sunbelt states like Florida, Georgia and North Carolina.