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GOP Leads Dems by 6 in Latest Generic Poll
Oh, my. Reuters has polled registered voters every week with the following question: “Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?” Here are the results:
For the first time in the past year, Republicans are leading Democrats. And this isn’t 0.003 percent or something, but a whopping 6.2 percent.
According to the current RealClearPolitics average, Democrats maintain a slight lead, although they haven’t yet factored in Reuters’s latest numbers. But at their nadir, the GOP was down 13 percent back in December. RCP now has them down by 4 percent and rising fast.
Are the Dems gonna blow this thing?
Published in General
One can only hope!
The graph is especially interesting. It implies they’re starting to turn off their own voters, considering “Don’t Know” didn’t increase and “Third Party” only increased a small amount.
Both party’s capacities for self-destruction can’t be denied. Race to the bottom it is then!
At the AEI podcast event, I asked if the Dems were going to blow the midterms. Most people said yes, but one lady in the back said, “No. We’ll blow it first.”
The party structures are always their own worst enemies, it seems.
Absolutely anything can happen!! My guess is that the D’s pick up about half the House seats they are expected to get. The Senate stays R by 1 seat.
I’d recommend, to preserve this advantage, prudence and caution in terms of tweets and other forms of communication from the White House. Of course, I’ve been doing that for about 17 months and it hasn’t meant a thing. So I suppose it’s let Donald be Donald and let the chips fall where they may.
Fix the freaking health insurance system while you can. Jesus.
“Going to”?
Apparently, telling people you’re going to raise their taxes isn’t sound campaign advice. Nancy Pelosi for Minority leader… Forever!
Never underestimate the power of both parties to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory. As soon as the Democrats had themselves (and most everyone else) convinced that a blue wave was inevitable they decided they could double down on pandering to their progressive base. I hope they keep it up.
I guess MS-13 members do not vote, and those that dislike MS-13 do vote.
The Democrats aren’t running on anything other than “Trump Sucks” and that flies in the face of the reality most people are living with.
Um, no way. I’m going to have to see more these before I believe it.
RCP has yet to record it, wanna bet they find a way not too?
My Democratic representative (Colin Peterson) has had his job for 27 years now. The race in 2016 was the closest a Republican (Dave Hughes) came to beating Peterson in many years. Last Saturday Hughes got our endorsement to run again and I have high hopes that this will be the year.
Shawn the Majestyk,
Regards,
Jim
At this point if I didn’t like the trend or the spot check I’d say it doesn’t’ mean anything yet, so I guess I’ll have to say it here when I do like both trend and spot. A big Republican loss would be a disaster for the nation and maybe a few more people are realizing that.
I’m liking my prediction from a month ago more and more with each passing day. Remember this: if the conventional wisdom makes no sense, it’s because it’s not true.
What could be the reason for the turn now? Well, I fired up the TV for the first time in a while yesterday and was horrified by the candidate commercials here in the SF Bay Area. Somebody was running for Lt. Gov with the message that she is for vulnerable immigrants. That was all. Someone else is leading the resistance against Trump. I literally cannot watch TV until the June election is over. It is sickening.
Where have I heard that before?
I hope they don’t. I’d like them to feed liberal overconfidence, the same way they did in 2016.
Iowa Congressman introduces ‘Mayor Libby Schaaf Act’ over ICE ‘obstructions’ LOL
Head of ICE scolds House Democrat: Don’t call us anti-immigrant for enforcing laws passed by Congress.
Someone needs to do a study of the correlation between Russia Russia Russia! coverage and Democrat polling numbers. I would bet any amount of money that it’s at least a moderate negative correlation.
As I keep telling myself as the local polls break against us in Ontario its only a poll.
There’s no way the party of transgender bathrooms, Hamas, MS-13, NK fandom, and repealing the 2nd amendment can blow this! Those are winning positions man!~
I love how we all believe in the validity of polls again now that they tell us good news.
I have written to the local Democrat candidates who will be on my ballot this fall to encourage them to double down on all of these positions. And I used your words Concretevol. Told them those positions are sure-fire winners in Texas.*
* I did not lie – I just didn’t say which party the Democrats holding those positions would be sure-fire winners for.
Confirmation bias for me, but not for thee.
This poll seems like an outlier because it is such a big jump, however the general trend does seem to be in the Republicans favor regardless of whether R+6 is accurate. One interesting item of note: we had primary runoff elections in Texas yesterday and democratic turnout was at historic lows, even with a runoff in the race for Governor. The headline at Texas Tribune calls this a nearly 100 year low. This does not seem like the kind of thing that points toward a Big Blue Wave.
Nat,
Certainly, it is possible to be misled by an outlier poll. However, the trend in polls appears to be to start with a large number of polls that give the Democrats a big lead by faulty polling techniques. As we approach the election this is boiled down to a few more realistic polls. Of course, the damage to Republican moral and fundraising has already been done. Assuming the above pattern a more realistic number might be R+10. I’m with you, at a minimum it surely isn’t the Big Blue Wave and would go farther to say that the momentum is now with the Republicans.
Fasten your seatbelts we’re in for a bumpy ride but I think we’re gonna take’em. Mark me down for a tentative yeehaw!!
Regards,
Jim