GOP Leads Dems by 6 in Latest Generic Poll

Jon Gabriel, Ed.
Jon Gabriel, Ed.
3519
 

Oh, my. Reuters has polled registered voters every week with the following question: “Thinking about the elections in 2018, if the election for U.S. Congress were held today, would you vote for the Democratic candidate or the Republican candidate in your district where you live?” Here are the results:

For the first time in the past year, Republicans are leading Democrats. And this isn’t 0.003 percent or something, but a whopping 6.2 percent.

According to the current RealClearPolitics average, Democrats maintain a slight lead, although they haven’t yet factored in Reuters’s latest numbers. But at their nadir, the GOP was down 13 percent back in December. RCP now has them down by 4 percent and rising fast.

Are the Dems gonna blow this thing?

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  1. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter
    12:36 PM EDT ⋅ May 23, 2018

    James Gawron (View Comment):
    Of course, the damage to Republican moral and fundraising has already been done.

    Has it? Except for a few weak-minded inside-the-beltway types (or those lost in TDS), I suspect most Republicans were discounting the massive poll leads by Democrats. This is what always happens in these polls: a massive Democrat lead that trails down to a minuscule lead (in the polls) just before election day. Often, election day sees republican victories, often a massive sweep by Republicans.

    As for fundraising, the Republicans seem to be doing fine. The DNC is really hurting, though.

    • #31
  2. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron
    12:54 PM EDT ⋅ May 23, 2018

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    James Gawron (View Comment):
    Of course, the damage to Republican moral and fundraising has already been done.

    Has it? Except for a few weak-minded inside-the-beltway types (or those lost in TDS), I suspect most Republicans were discounting the massive poll leads by Democrats. This is what always happens in these polls: a massive Democrat lead that trails down to a minuscule lead (in the polls) just before election day. Often, election day sees republican victories, often a massive sweep by Republicans.

    As for fundraising, the Republicans seem to be doing fine. The DNC is really hurting, though.

    Sea,

    Well well well, it looks like the old voodoo isn’t working. Maybe they’ve tried these tricks once too often.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #32
  3. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter
    12:58 PM EDT ⋅ May 23, 2018

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    James Gawron (View Comment):
    Of course, the damage to Republican moral and fundraising has already been done.

    Has it? Except for a few weak-minded inside-the-beltway types (or those lost in TDS), I suspect most Republicans were discounting the massive poll leads by Democrats. This is what always happens in these polls: a massive Democrat lead that trails down to a minuscule lead (in the polls) just before election day. Often, election day sees republican victories, often a massive sweep by Republicans.

    As for fundraising, the Republicans seem to be doing fine. The DNC is really hurting, though.

    Sea,

    Well well well, it looks like the old voodoo isn’t working. Maybe they’ve tried these tricks once too often.

    Regards,

    Jim

    Well . . . maybe they should read more widely.

    • #33
  4. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron
    1:34 PM EDT ⋅ May 23, 2018

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    James Gawron (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    James Gawron (View Comment):
    Of course, the damage to Republican moral and fundraising has already been done.

    Has it? Except for a few weak-minded inside-the-beltway types (or those lost in TDS), I suspect most Republicans were discounting the massive poll leads by Democrats. This is what always happens in these polls: a massive Democrat lead that trails down to a minuscule lead (in the polls) just before election day. Often, election day sees republican victories, often a massive sweep by Republicans.

    As for fundraising, the Republicans seem to be doing fine. The DNC is really hurting, though.

    Sea,

    Well well well, it looks like the old voodoo isn’t working. Maybe they’ve tried these tricks once too often.

    Regards,

    Jim

    Well . . . maybe they should read more widely.

    Sea,

    You mean the Republican Party woke up and is paying attention! Damn it Sea, this could be the start of something big!

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #34
  5. Jager Coolidge
    Jager
    @Jager
    3:01 PM EDT ⋅ May 23, 2018

    Today’s RCP average is down to 3.4 which is getting pretty close to the Margin of Error in a lot of these polls. 

    https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html

    538 shows the gap down to 4.7. At Christmas time 538 had the Dems with a Generic advantage of 13.3

    ttps://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/congress-generic-ballot-polls/?ex_cid=rrpromo

     

    • #35
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