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North Korea Now Miniaturizing Warheads for Their ICBMs
Well, this isn’t good.
North Korea has successfully produced a miniaturized nuclear warhead that can fit inside its missiles, crossing a key threshold on the path to becoming a full-fledged nuclear power, U.S. intelligence officials have concluded in a confidential assessment.
The new analysis completed last month by the Defense Intelligence Agency comes on the heels of another intelligence assessment that sharply raises the official estimate for the total number of bombs in the communist country’s atomic arsenal. The U.S. calculated last month that up to 60 nuclear weapons are now controlled by North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. Some independent experts believe the number of bombs is much smaller.
The findings are likely to deepen concerns about an evolving North Korean military threat that appears to be advancing far more rapidly than many experts had predicted. U.S. officials last month concluded that Pyongyang is also outpacing expectations in its effort to build an intercontinental ballistic missile capable of striking cities on the American mainland.
The UN Security Council unanimously passed a new sanctions regime against North Korea which is expected to cut its export revenue by a third. This led Pyongyang, or course, to issue more threats:
“Packs of wolves are coming in attack to strangle a nation,” the North Korean statement said. “They should be mindful that the D.P.R.K.’s strategic steps accompanied by physical action will be taken mercilessly with the mobilization of all its national strength.”
Given Seoul’s 10 million residents are located just 35 miles from the demilitarized zone, all allied military options would be very bloody indeed. How do you recommend the US and its allies respond?
Published in Foreign Policy, Military
I’m old enough to remember when China was going to be labeled a “Currency Manipulator” and Mexico was going to pay for the wall. His actions along those axes have been mousy at best.
@docjay is spot on here. NK is the crazy, mean dog in the neighborhood without a collar or a license. Nobody knows who it belongs to. If you ask China “that your dog?” They’ll deny it to your face. But after dark they leave their gate open and set out food and water for it.
Somebody has to make it abundantly clear to China that if this dog bites someone…. Anyone at all…. We are holding China personally responsible.
Ummm…(expletive)
The Chinese Communist Party denies helping North Korea in any way. I know this because they told me so when I taught English to a party officials class in China a few years back.
For 38 years now, the Iranians have been threatening and killing Americans, as well as publicly calling for Death to America, and what good has it done them?
Well, the US left Beirut when Iranian proxies murdered hundreds of US Marines in their sleep; years later, even after Iranian explosives had killed or maimed lots of US troops in Iraq, we stood idly by and ignored a popular uprising against the mullahs: the US under Obama did nothing; instead he entered into the (still largely secret) deal letting the Iranians continue to acquire and work with nuclear materials, make nuclear weapons, and for good measure, receive untold billions of dollars from the highest authority in the US (a now former President, Thank God).
Mao and the ChiComs used to call the US a paper tiger — I wonder what Kim thinks.With the paradigm of our dealings with Iran, what lesson ought Lil’ Kim draw?
If we do nothing but sanctions and jaw jaw jaw, he will be all that better prepared when it comes to war war war. If we make a preemptive strike that is insufficient, Kim will destroy Seoul and its millions of inhabitants, throw whatever he has against us and our allies in the region, and call on China for help to resist the “aggression.” The pressure seems to be mounting towards a massive, overwhelming and devastating attack to eliminate the NK regime and the real threat it poses. It may be time to bring the Korean War to a close once and for all. MacArthur may be proven right in the end.
It is a bitter and terrifying prospect, and as all wars seem to go, the plans do not usually survive the first hostile contact. China would probably take advantage of the chaos to invade Taiwan; Russia could move into more areas of the former USSR that Putin so craves; and Iran could launch an attack on Israel, which has the capability to respond. Instant WWIII doomsday scenario with nukes.
The situation is grave and getting more so every day. Very scary times. If I have one consolation on this plane, it is not Hillary and John Kerry mangling the situation (quick! send James Taylor!); and on a higher plane, I know that my Redeemer lives, so I have hope.
Messianism is how we’ve gotten into this situation with the Iranians and NorKs in the first place. I hardly think the solution is more cowbell.
“North Korea” means “plausible deniability” in Chinese
It’s a great day to live in rural Indiana. God protects my town really well from interesting events.
Okay, someone has to ask this, and I think I’m the appropriate person to do it.
Which is easier to spin politically, signing a weak-kneed peace treaty with “that fat guy” (as the Chinese call him) or 100,000 dead South Koreans?
Are both better than losing a few thousand people on the West coast?
Ahh. I guess I never really took either of those seriously enough to consider them actual policy stances. But if you count those as being real, then they would be examples of tepidity.
Maj,
Any action could not be piecemeal. It would require a full-scale simultaneous action. It would require some time to move enough assets into place to be successful. If you remember the build up to the first Gulf War, George H. W. Bush maintained a bargaining stance with Saddam Hussein as he brought assets to the region. Then, with all diplomatic attempts rejected, Stormin Norman launched everything at once.
It still depends on China. If China joins a military coalition to rid itself of the N. Korean problem or at a minimum provides intelligence to the coalition then Kim is cooked. We will still need to wipe out all N.K. offensive capabilities that can hit Seoul in far less than one day. Less than one hour would be getting there. I’d want it shorter than that.
Regards,
Jim
You have no reason, none, to doubt Trump’s judgment. It’s up to the Norks now. Let’s all pray they dont do the unthinkable.
I frequently nod in agreement with your posts, but I think you are off the mark here. I think these assumptions are part of our problem. I do not see NK as an independent actor. I see them as a wholly owned subsidiary of the PRC. As such, NK is not a problem for the Chinese to be rid of. Rather they are a Chinese asset whose value we keep bidding up.
A unified liberal democratic ally of the US right on their border would be a liability for China. The interests of China and the US are in conflict on the Korean peninsula.
I took Trump seriously, not literally.
I’m pretty sure China doesn’t have the logistical capability to invade Taiwan.
I know it’s scary. It really is. But that’s the only message that has a chance of solving this problem. We are not dealing with people who will meet weakness with friendship. We are dealing with people who will hurt us if they do not fear us.
Back up talk with action. I almost hope Kim Jong Un fires on Guam and misses. Then there is no more choice, just moral clarity and righteous fury. Millions of North Koreans dead? Maybe, but is what they’re doing living?
Well, the problem isn’t how many North Koreans will die, but how many other people will also die?
If I have to choose between South Korea and the west coast, I have to choose the west coast, although that’s a hard choice.
Yes. Our policy should be, we can shoot them down faster than you can build them.
@Steve C, Blood Thirsty Neocon, and Cato Rand- Do any of you think that a serious slap on the risk would deter Kim. Iow, shoot down the next missile he launches; warn him that if one of his supposedly cruise-missile toting patrol boats comes within a certain range of a US destroyer or carrier, we will destroy it, and then follow through if he ignores the warning. Treat him as Trump treated Syria. I doubt he would escalate, and it might show we are serious. What do you think?
What if we told China “look, if hypothetically one day you were to annex North Korea, we’d give some really angry speeches at the U.N. but we wouldn’t actually do anything about it…”
Certainly possible, and frightening, though it does seem that the Kims have nothing to gain and everything to lose by starting something. Presumably they realize they can’t actually win a war with us; unlike the Iranians, who might actually believe that Allah will be on their side, I doubt the Kims believe in much of anything.
To be fair, their actions to date have been entirely rational. They’ve seen the U.S. topple regimes we don’t like, they saw how even after Khadafi played ball and voluntarily gave up his WMD program, he ended up dead on a roadside. They’ve calculated that only a credible nuclear threat to the U.S. mainland can ensure we never invade them, and I’m not sure they’re wrong about that calculation.
I don’t think they want to attack us; I think they want to ensure we never attack them, so they can continue to rule their pathetic little country with an iron fist for generations to come.
Too late to close the barn door now unfortunately. It would be almost impossible to ensure we got all their nuke’s and a large amount of their artillery. South Korea would pay a huge price if this goes to a hot war.
So you want to go to war with China too?
We’ve been kicking this can down the road since 1953, and most Americans would be happy to just keep kicking.
Kim Jong Un is not sane by Western standards and North Koreans do not operate within the same world-view as we do. That means we cannot guess what he will do in a given situation with any certainty. And it only takes one to start a war. In his mind, he can win.
I spent two tours in Korea. I wasn’t on the DMZ but we exercised constantly for an attack. North Korean infiltrators were regularly operating in South Korea then and still are now, a bit of news you don’t here in our entertainment obsessed media. Our equipment was frequently old, sometimes faulty, or just plain unavailable. No one in America wants to be reminded that the War is still on.
American service members in Korea know what is expected of them and have, in the main, served with honor and dedication to protect an important American ally. The people of Korea are worth every effort we’ve expended on their behalf.
There will be war and the blood of innocents will be spilled. The choices we have are limited to when, where, and how much. I don’t want war but what I want, what America wants, is irrelevant. Unless we decide to do something it will all be in the hands of that maniac in Pyongyang.
The Machiavell in me likes this, but do you think the Chinese would stop with the North?
I think you’re right. But their friends in Iran *are* on the warpath.
I wouldn’t even bother with the angry speeches.