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Calexit Ramp
I have mixed feelings about the nascent California secession campaign (“Calexit”). As someone who splits his time between East and West, I worry about the potential complexity of dual citizenship and the hassle of frequently crossing an international border, though, presumably, the nation of California’s would be open. But it does strike me as a potentially interesting experiment.
Of course, the primary motivation of Calexit’s proponents is the national election of Donald Trump while the Golden State was racking up a four-million-plus vote surplus for Hillary Clinton. (In fairness, Mr. Trump would likely argue that, discounting illegal voting, the differential would shrink to a few hundred or so.)
There are other reasons not to take the lopsided election too seriously. I suspect most of us know Californians who didn’t bother voting because it was a forgone conclusion that Clinton would win a large majority of popular votes and, therefore, all of the state’s electoral votes. In other words, why bother if it doesn’t matter? If the landscape seemed more competitive, or if this were not a winner-take-all state, the results might have been significantly different. Mrs. Clinton would still likely have won, but the Trump campaign would have worked harder and spent more money, and conservative voters would have been more motivated.
Still, there is a part of me that’s intrigued by secession. It would present a kind of real-world laboratory situation that would confine some of our goofier politics—not to mention awards show—within an international border. It would also be interesting to see how a state that some claim has the world’s sixth-largest economy would fare as an independent nation. Would the economic separation and the need to negotiate trade deals be harder on California Nation or on the remaining 49 states?
I’m tempted to say that Calexit will never come to pass, but in this Trump Era, I have given up thinking that anything is impossible. So let’s play a mind game and try to imagine what might happen if Cal does, in fact, exit. Some results seem obvious, but the unintended consequences are likely to be legion. Some ramifications would be quite significant, while many more would be deliciously amusing. One thing seems certain: given the mood of the nation, a serious Calexit campaign would be more popular in the rest of the country than in California itself.
Published in Politics
Viruscop, any pact between China and an independent CA would only result in total disaster for CA; economically, socially and politically. China has shown little or no respect for licensing or patent law. They do not innovate, they steal and they copy. They would treat CA the way they treat commodity rich nations in Africa; one sided and in their favor. China’s rulers are about preserving the Party first, all else second.
The EU would tax Silicon Valley out of existence. The remaining US, where CA derives much of its water and power would raise rates to crippling extremes. Think Russian gas to Germany at 8 times what we pay.
While I know you are alluding to the economic power of Silicon Valley, and it is formidable, the dysfunction in the rest of the State is no small thing. Victor Davis Hanson, who lives in CA, writes about this all of the time. It is not an accident that many of the CA wealthiest have purchased millions of acres in other states, such as Utah, Idaho, Wyoming, Montana, Colorado and Texas as investments, but are really back-up sanctuaries in case of social unrest in CA. No to dissimilar to what the ruling elite are doing in China, or South America.We have recently learned that Peter Thiel is a dual citizen of New Zealand. That is not because he likes the view.
My guess is that within 5 years of secession, CA would revert to a frontier again.
All of Secessionist California’s food, water, and power would come from outside their boundaries. That wouldn’t end well.
I’m one of those oddball entertainer-types who feel that political and social messages should not be crammed down the throats of unwary audiences.
Exactly. I’m in a part of California that could pass for west Texas. Lots of trucks, wide open spaces, gun lovers, flag wavers, etc. Also, people who work on the local Navy base. Wonder what would happen to all the military installations in a seceded California.
Agreed. We would be very upset if another show was doing that for their friends on the Left, so we should have the same feelings for our side.
I hope Alta Californians learn from the big mistake of those antebellum Southerners. Seek congressional approval in an enabling Act. Oh, by the way, please make arrangements for paying your share of the national debt before califexiting!
It is a small point, but the same argument about more people going to the polls, were the popular vote totals the determinative factor, could be made about the motivations of persons in deeply red states.
This is spot on and why Calexit won’t happen. If they leave the United States, they have no hope for a federal bailout once they hit rock bottom.
If they were to leave, it would be some sort of negotiated exit (including a Constitutional amendment to facilitate the exit which is reason #27 why this won’t happen) that would almost certainly require them to leave with their share of the current massive federal debt load.
So now they have even more debt that they had before and now they have to come up with their own currency unless they are going to stay on the dollar. If they stay on the dollar, they lose control over their monetary policy. If they go on their own currency, the temptation to run the printing presses will be entirely too great for them.
Calexit isn’t going to happen. No one is leaving the union. We’re all stuck in this together.
I could not disagree more.
See comment #37.
I note that the Left always smugly points out California is a “tax donor state”.
Anyone know if this is because of the fact that state income tax is deductible on federal returns?
Seem to me with their high state rates, they get a significant “free ride” this way….
Don’t forget about the home mortgage deduction. Remove the home mortgage deduction and state income tax deduction and there will be an immense amount of wailing and gnashing of teeth from rich California progressives who sudden aren’t all that happy about paying their “fair share”.
That doesn’t make the citizen of China more free, that simply makes the citizen of the country subjugated by China (per comment #37) less free than they were before being conquered. I get what you’re saying, you’re not free if you can’t keep it. However, pretending that having a million dollars in the bank but no real choice as to your own destiny (because a government can dictate the very minutia of your life) is somehow freedom redefines freedom in such a way that you could very well say that slaves are free if you give them what they need to live. Freedom is not mere economics. If you give me all the money I could ever ask for but I have to bow to your every whim to keep it I’m not free, I’m just a slave with a lot of money.
I agree with some of this, but China doesn’t dictate the very minutiae of their citizens’ lives. It seems to me that they have found a way to maximize economic growth via authoritarian methods, but they understand that there is a limit to these methods.
If China eclipses the United States, then this suggests that the inalienable rights mentioned in the Constitution really aren’t that important, and the Constitution is nothing more than a legal document amongst many legal documents in history. The consequences of this would be profound, and the questions raised by this would be hard.
I don’t think that the right would be able to grapple with those questions.
Your picture makes me uncomfortable, but your handle makes me wonder:
My daughter (Masters Degree in Criminal Justice) works in Cyber Security for a state. Is that what you do, and the reason you chose that name?
No, I’m a graduate student in statistics. Viruscop was an old name from the early days of AOL that my brother used.
The document that mentions unalienable rights is the Declaration, and it does not say “we hold these truths to be self-evident, that governments are instituted among men to maximize economic growth.”
You’re right. In any case, I feel that the the supremacy of China would make the Declaration and Constitution irrelevant.
Why should the world care about documents from some second-rate power?
Then eventually, China uses its power to wreck your life.
You seem fixated on material prosperity as the only measure of life. Sad!
So, you can be perfectly happy to live in a wooden shack while the Chinese economic sanctions prevent you from ever rising above a level of near-starvation.
If that’s the case, why even bother with policy at all? In fact, why not abolish the military and let all the highways collapse?
Ive always wondered if a state really did secede, would the federal govt shut it down by force? Would there be any public support for such a move? There was in 1861 but what about today? I think I would only support using force against California if marshal law could be imposed for many years and most Californians would be prohibited from voting.
No, it doesn’t.
I saw a headline on Drudge about California withholding its tax payments to the feds. I didn’t take it seriously enough to read the article, but supposing they did, would the feds do the usual?
One of the things that strikes me: The Military. Suppose a foreign body declares WAR on California. (Or not. But wages an uninvited War.) I doubt CA will even HAVE a military esp in its first years. Elitist Leftists probably will make SURE nothing as dreary as an Army or Navy even EXISTS. The United States will not necessarily be wanted as an ally because of its gun and religious ‘idiocy. Plus the US might be uninterested or too busy.
I see trouble. Go for it California. Hope no one NUKES Facebook headquarters or Bev Hills.
How’s that not so high speed Train doin!
Whether that happens depends on how second rate the second-raters are.
Sorry, I don’t do weird unrealistic hypotheticals.
Then Ricochet isn’t the place for you.
We need a military to protect us from those who hate us and our way of life, not because we aim to use our position as the sole remaining superpower to reduce all of our rivals to a level of near-starvation. We’d like to see the entire world rich and prosperous, as we believe it would be if the entire world embraced free markets and the rule of law.