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Calexit Ramp
I have mixed feelings about the nascent California secession campaign (“Calexit”). As someone who splits his time between East and West, I worry about the potential complexity of dual citizenship and the hassle of frequently crossing an international border, though, presumably, the nation of California’s would be open. But it does strike me as a potentially interesting experiment.
Of course, the primary motivation of Calexit’s proponents is the national election of Donald Trump while the Golden State was racking up a four-million-plus vote surplus for Hillary Clinton. (In fairness, Mr. Trump would likely argue that, discounting illegal voting, the differential would shrink to a few hundred or so.)
There are other reasons not to take the lopsided election too seriously. I suspect most of us know Californians who didn’t bother voting because it was a forgone conclusion that Clinton would win a large majority of popular votes and, therefore, all of the state’s electoral votes. In other words, why bother if it doesn’t matter? If the landscape seemed more competitive, or if this were not a winner-take-all state, the results might have been significantly different. Mrs. Clinton would still likely have won, but the Trump campaign would have worked harder and spent more money, and conservative voters would have been more motivated.
Still, there is a part of me that’s intrigued by secession. It would present a kind of real-world laboratory situation that would confine some of our goofier politics—not to mention awards show—within an international border. It would also be interesting to see how a state that some claim has the world’s sixth-largest economy would fare as an independent nation. Would the economic separation and the need to negotiate trade deals be harder on California Nation or on the remaining 49 states?
I’m tempted to say that Calexit will never come to pass, but in this Trump Era, I have given up thinking that anything is impossible. So let’s play a mind game and try to imagine what might happen if Cal does, in fact, exit. Some results seem obvious, but the unintended consequences are likely to be legion. Some ramifications would be quite significant, while many more would be deliciously amusing. One thing seems certain: given the mood of the nation, a serious Calexit campaign would be more popular in the rest of the country than in California itself.
Published in Politics
You overlooked the effect on the NHL season and angry Philadelphia Flyers’ fans.
If California exits fine, as long as the assume their share of the debt. Of course they can’t cover their own State debt, so it should be interesting.
Yeah, dark times ahead for California if this ever comes to pass. The rest of the U.S. would probably have to institute a ‘Wet Foot, Dry Foot’ policy to deal with the streams of refugees fleeing the Golden State. And the film/TV industry might have to relocate to sunny south Texas.
We’re gonna need a bigger wall.
If it happened, the US would cease to matter in world affairs and per capita income would plunge.
California could have a lot going for it just by signing a security and trade agreement with China.
Without taking a scientific poll, I’d guess that the majority of those advocating California’s departure thought Brexit was a horrible idea.
I think everyone needs to read kurt schlichter’s book Red State Blue State for what could happen.
Short version. Venezueala.
Calexit is just the latest Putin plot to divide and weaken America:
Makes sense, if true, and it makes sense that it has some supporters on Ricochet.
Quite a few people here support Putin plots.
Depends if it’s a hard Calexit or a soft Calexit.
A soft Calexit might be easier on everybody, but of course it might encourage some of the other States that suspect they pay more into the system than they get out of it to follow suit.
Really – wouldn’t the whole thing be obviated by greater states’ rights?
(If a state wants to vote in mandatory single payer insurance, and State level bargaining with pharmaceutical companies for pricing and an official bilingual policy….is there anything stopping them from doing this now?)
Just think, with Calexit, maybe Hillary could finally be president of a country.
My company has two subsidiaries in California. The company is already under a “consent decree” with the Feds due to “export violations” (read, Obama Administration Corporate Shakedown). Just what we need are more export headaches. Time to move those subsidiaries, or sell them.
I’m struggling to think of any effect on my life. What if Idaho left? Or Texas? Would it actually matter?
For those of us who have no business interests in California, or family living there, I’m sure you could imagine some interconnectedness theology, like Mustafa’s “circle of life” speech in the Lion King, but that was just a gibberish speech anyway.
No, there isn’t. Vermont’s governor tried and failed to implement a program called Green Mountain Care, and Colorado had single-payer on the ballot last November but it was soundly defeated.
Will they get to keep their earthquakes? Its San Andreas’ fault.
I think the main effect would be on national defense. Presumably an independent CA would spend even less on defense than most EU states — seriously, who’s going to invade us? Nor would CA be likely to join a coalition to send troops to places like Iraq or Afghanistan. The other 49 states would have to shoulder a larger share of the burden, or else shrink the military corresponding to the loss of CA tax revenue.
If other states start following suit, pretty soon the United States is no longer a superpower — which back to my earlier comment explains why Putin loves the idea.
California’s environmental laws are copied everywhere. Why should the US adopt “green energy” laws just because the country of CA does? Why should their auto emissions standards hold for the rest of us? What will the auto makers do when the fuel standards developed in and for California are now those of a foreign country? What about the “cage-free” rules that now apply to eggs from everywhere? California would not be able to export their standards. What will the people of CA say when they are forced to buy only products made within their new country?
Actually this is a great idea. If California wants to exit make it be by 2/3rd majority in each county therefore splinting the new nation. This would be having all liberal conclaves except San Diego ,which is moderate, go by-by and most of the land will stay in the Union. However it would be a lot simpler if we just split California up into 4 states, two liberal with most of the population and the other two with the rest of the state. I think a lot of these mega cities already operate almost city-states as it stands, why don’t let them become their own state like New York city if they want.
If Calexit happens, we should institute a Cal immigration ban. Normal Californians want in to the US? Do it now, and Don’t worry about your property in CA. It’ll become almost worthless anyway as Cal becomes Mexico’s Kosovo and companies try to flee. It’d be funny to see Faceberg owned by the Chinese, as they buy up silicon valley biz, cheap.
The US would cease to be a superpower once California secedes. Also, I think that the Chinese would be happy to sign some sort of defense treaty with California. Then they would be the guarantors of free trade and peace in the Pacific (and the rest of the world), with all the benefits that entails.
Oh, no. If they tried, liberals would suddenly embrace the importance of militarism, and crush those counties, Sherman-through-Atlanta style. Mark Steyn is right that the Left are Jacobins at heart, and when the time comes, would embrace the spilling of blood lustily.
There could be some interesting water negotiations. I wonder if the snail darter would be in trouble.
This Calexit reminds me if the teenager who threatens to move out, then quietly changes their mind when they realize how much adults actually pay and are responsible for.
I’d think differently if CA wasn’t in debt up to its ears.
And as far as open borders: they better be open, isn’t that what they’re all moaning about with their sanctuary cities?
And while we are at it, CA would need to take their portion of the international quota of immigrants, refugee, and asylum candidates.
I love the idea of Calexit, for all kinds of reasons.
Why shouldn’t we encourage devolution of states who want to leave?
As for superpower status… America’s superpowers lie in its ideals and leadership by example. Our authority is not defined by tanks or bullets, nor should it be. Freedom and liberty, not military might, constitute the American beacon.
iWe,
I was just wondering where you were. I knew you’d have good comment on Calexit!
Do you know what you call a shallow grave dug in Russia? A Putin plot.
I worked hard on that joke.
And it was worth every second of work.
When I figure out what that means I’m coming back for you.