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Congratulations to Reluctant Trump, You Won the Election
Ever since Donald Trump’s surprising (at least to me) victory on November 8, many have wondered exactly what happened and why the pre-election polls were so very wrong. We may finally have an answer. Last week Edison Research released its breakdown of exit polls and their conclusion is both heartening to me and good news for conservatives.
Edison identified a “hidden group” of voters that made all the difference in swinging the election to Trump. This group who they identify as the “Neithers” is what is affectionately known around these parts as ReluctantTrump. While Hillary maintained a decided favorability lead over Trump, it turns out that 18 percent of the electorate found neither candidate acceptable. The surprising finding is that this 18 percent broke for Trump in a major way:
The effect was even more pronounced in the five swing states that broke the Democrats’ “Blue Wall” and handed Trump an electoral college victory:
In the end, it wasn’t Trump’s Personality Cultists or Republican Party Loyalists who won this election, but a significant group of voters pinching their noses and gritting their teeth: our very own Reluctant Trumpers.
There is not much offered in terms of the actual poll data, so this is only a surface analysis, but what is there points to a few conclusions I consider good for conservatives:
- Trump did not win by riding a populist wave. Had the Democrats offered up even a mildly acceptable candidate the Neithers could easily have broken the other way or stayed home. The margins of victory in the five swing states were very narrow and any slight shift in how they broke would have thrown the election to the Democrats.
- Between them, Donald Trump and Gary Johnson received 64 percent of the Neither vote. This indicates to me that they are a decidedly right-of-center group (despite allusions in the piece about a significant portion being “favorable” to President Obama).
- In the states where there were Senate elections, the decidedly more conservative senatorial candidates won by larger margins than Trump did, which indicates even more room for victory on a conservative agenda.
This gives conservatives far more power in a Trump administration than they would have had if Trump won merely by riding a populist wave. In order to pass his agenda, Trump will need the Neithers in his camp. If they are really made up of ReluctantTrump Conservatives, as I suspect, this is the opportunity to push Trump in the right direction. In this respect, NeverTrump may have been dreadfully wrong; reluctantly backing Trump may indeed end up as the smarter conservative play, as Ricochet First Citizen @tommeyer pointed out in The Federalist.
Congratulations ReluctantTrump, this election continues to prove me and other NeverTrumpers wrong; let’s hope it proves us wrong in the most important of our criticisms. Let’s hope we get actual conservative governance.
Published in General
So you’re saying “non-elite NeverTrumpers” (e.g., @Spin) were incapable of making up their own minds on this matter.
I’m sorry, but which position is the snotty one again?
I get my snide remark based on the data by the original poster.
You should pay attention to the data more. You’ll also notice that Gary Johnson received 15% of the Neither vote – far above his national average of 4%, that is probably where a lot of NeverTrumpers like myself and @exjon went. I’m specifically referring to self-identified ReluctantTrumpers here.
Who could have predicted such a thing? Oh wait…me! On May 18, in in a post I titled: Let’s face it, Republican unity will Be much easier than Democratic unity, I wrote:
If you read the follow-up comments, my certainty on this point was nothing short of absolute. You people are so predictable. BTW, I won’t make you admit you voted for him.
Following doesn’t mean that a person is a thrall. In this I only mean that you all took great comfort in the NT elites constant carping about and denigrating of Trump.
He should have been sailing around on a yacht that is a United States Destroyer like I did. Caviar, champagne, constant sun. Now that is the lap of luxury.
It’s not just a job, it’s $96.78 a week.