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Now Bill Whalen Calls the Senate
In a post below, my pal Bill Whalen–as astute and honest an observer as I’ve ever known–offers his call on the presidency. Now Bill calls the Senate:
For the Senate, let’s start with the Real Clear Politics tout board, which claims a 46-46 chamber – with 8 states rated as toss-ups.
Those eight: Florida, Indiana, Missouri, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Florida and Wisconsin are recent additions.
I’m giving Florida to the GOP. Anti-Trump Latino resentment won’t take down Rubio. And Missouri should also go red. Trump is comfortably ahead there. Blunt benefits.
That takes Republicans to 48.
I’d wager that Richard Burr keeps his seat in North Carolina. Watch the state’s early returns on Election Night. If Burr’s holding his own in Charlotte and the Research Triangle, he’s probably getting re-elected.
That takes Republicans to 49.
The 50th GOP seat: an “upset” in Indiana. I’m putting that in quotes because I think Evan Bayh got snookered (it won’t be the last time we say that if Chuck Schumer is the next Majority Leader). Bayh jumped into the race when the early polls had him far ahead. He mistook name recognition for enthusiasm. The Republican candidate, Todd Young, did something to Bayh that’s poison in the Midwest: he’s effectively portrayed Bayh as going Beltway. A similar question over residency and being true to one’s roots did in Dick Lugar, in the same state, in 2012 and almost took down Pat Roberts in Kansas in 2014.
I’m giving Indiana to Young. 50 Republican seats.
The 51st seat? I’m skeptical. Either Ron Johnson comes back from the (presumed) dead in Wisconsin, Pat Toomey overcomes the Clinton campaign’s massive turnout operation in Pennsylvania (Hillary ends her campaign at an all-hands on-check Philadelphia rally featuring the Obamas ad Springsteen), Joe Heck overcomes Trump’s struggles in Nevada (early voting in Las Vegas’ Clark County has The Donald down by double digits), or Kelly Ayotte survives in New Hampshire (which her people think is doable if Trump keeps it close).
These are all states I’m guessing Clinton will win tomorrow night. In some, Trump simply hasn’t organized. In at least one, the Latino backlash could cost Republicans down-ticket.
Final score: a 50-50 Senate.
Actually, 50-49 or 50-48, depending on the outcomes in Louisiana and Georgia. In the latter, GOP incumbent Johnny Isakson faces a Jan. 10runoff if he doesn’t get to 50% tomorrow. The last Georgia poll I saw had him at 50%.
In Louisiana, there will be runoff. However, the jungle primary is wide-open. We don’t know if the runoff will produce one Republican and one Democrat or two candidates from one party.
The GOP’s best hope there: a Republican named John Kennedy. Go figure.
But wait. There’s more . . .
In May 2001, Vermont Sen. Jim Jeffords changed his party affiliation from Republican to independent – and chose to caucus with the Democrats. The chamber went from 50-50 to 51-49 in favor of the party that had just lost the White House.
If the same 50-50 scenario materializes, there’s nothing stopping Mitch McConnell from calling West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin into his office and offering a deal. Which he should: there’s a world of difference if Republicans can control the Senate and call Hillary’s bluff on appointments and judicial picks.
Manchin faces re-election in 2018. He’s one of five Democrats running in ruby-red states, helped none by that election being the first referendum on the Clinton 45 presidency. The other for states where Democrats will be running scared: Indiana, Missouri, Montana and North Dakota.
What McConnell could offer to Manchin: leave the Democrats; at a minimum, become an independent and caucus with the GOP. And if you become a Republican: you’ll get some nice committee slots and the promise of not getting primaried in 2018.
If West Virginia goes deeper red tomorrow (that would Republicans winning a gubernatorial race there for the first time this century), maybe Manchin’s more amenable to flipping.
Food for thought – and a reminder that the moment this election ends, 2018 is already underway.
In other words, begin moderating your hopes for tomorrow (I don’t know about you, but I’d rather take disappointment one spoonful at a time rather than find myself forced to swallow it all at once), and start saying your prayers for the conversion of Sen. Manchin.
Published in General
I have been predicting a 51-49 GOP Senate outcome (my rosary is being worn out for Toomey here in PA, but, alas, a more likely bet is Heck in NV)…and the Manchin reference is very interesting. I have been thinking about him as a potential switch for quite some time now….very much in line with the Shelby switch in 1994.
I’m not sure how McConnell or anyone at the RNC could promise Manchin that he would not be primaried in 2018. Manchin’s negative 1 approval rating in WV drops to -21 among Republicans. He’s guaranteed the Democratic primary and is the overwhelming favorite in the General, with no clear reason for believing this would change in the next two years. If he switched parties, he’d dramatically increase his risk.
At some point, one has to accept that smoke filled room deals have less purchase today than they did a half century ago, that election predictions that make guesses about the results and then aggregate those guesses are useful for bar bets, but not for anyone not in a bar with Whalen, and that the difference between a 60% likely outcome and a 50% likely outcome is non-existent 90% of the time.
It’s not his honesty that makes the value of glancing at an RCP or 538 map and exaggerating its certainty about most maps less valuable than other forms of prediction. If I tell you that I have a hunch that the next car you see is going to be grey, it’s not my character that determines the value of the judgment and my judgment isn’t necessarily wrong (there are a lot of grey cars out there, particularly if you include silver and other monochromatic near-grey things), but I don’t have access to knowledge that would make my prediction meaningful beyond my claims about the result of the next coin toss.
Nate Silver flipped from leaning a Democrat controlled Senate to GOP controlled Senate since yesterday, I just looked at is again and the GOPs chances are 50.8% to 49.2%, which has slipped back a little since I last looked. If the GOP keeps the Senate, I will consider that a fantastic victory, given the circumstances.
My bet is that Manchin — despite occasional gestures — is, below the surface, a committed Democrat ready to take his lumps . . . if they should come.
I have mostly lost whatever fight I had in me. The election wouldn’t be this close if the country had a moral populace. It obviously doesn’t but rather is filled with spoiled children desiring a nanny state instead of freedom. I have quit donating to candidates and see no reason to save the voters from themselves, at least with my money. I do not share the belief some have that no election can destroy the country. There is clearly one set of laws for the elite and another for the rest of us. As in all totalitarian regimes, they will be sure to get their wealth while the rest of us can queue up in the new utopia. It won’t be a boring ride because enough hackers have the dirty goods on Hillary and will be making her next few years a living embarrassment, if she even has any shame. My next few years will be great regardless. I have great kids and grandchildren. My daughters quote Milton Friedman to me so they will raise my grandkids right.
But Republicans need at least 53 to control appointments and judicial picks. McCain and Lindsey Graham will say “Elections have consequences, and a President should get his (her) picks.”
Neither would abolish the filibuster, which means that you’d just need 41 votes to block a candidate. 51 is important to keep the rules from changing.
What about the special election for Tim Kaine’s seat?
Yes, thanks, 51 it is.
Problem with that is, they’d have to buck the Republican Judiciary Committee. There’s nothing requiring Chuck Grassley to schedule hearings. At the very least he can slow play it and make sure some important information is laid out there about their radicalism. Not to mention that there are at least 5 other Democrats in the Senate who will have to run for reelection in very red states in 2018 – they will likely not want to have a referendum on all the radical liberals they voted to approve to important federal courts.