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Never Say Never Again
The great irony of politics is that it rewards loyalty with neglect and heaps attention on the uncommitted. Saying your vote can be counted on is a guaranteed way to get ignored, while letting it be known that you’re willing to deal (for the right price, of course) means people will fawn over you. It’s not a good system, it’s just the one we’re stuck us with.
If conservatives ever knew this, we forgot it completely when Donald Trump strode onto the political stage. As I describe in a piece on The Federalist, very nearly all of us — NeverTrumpers, Trumpkins, and ReluctantTrumpers alike — overcommitted ourselves at the outset, losing whatever degree of influence or control we might have had over the Republican nominee.
As a practical matter, the [NeverTrump] strategy was an abject failure. It persuaded too few Republicans to deny Trump the nomination. Additionally, the movement’s habit of offering opposition without alternative made it seem stubborn and childish on the one hand, while its elite nature—at least, in its early stages—gave it the air of a frustrated parent falling back on a because-I-said-so defense. […] The smarter—though, more difficult—move for Trump opponents would have been to state that they could not support Donald Trump under current circumstances, and to offer a brief explanation of how they could be persuaded to change their minds.
It needn’t have been likely that Trump would meet these conditions, so long as it were possible. Nor would it have required critics to pull their punches. “I will never support Donald Trump for president,” and “I cannot support Donald Trump for president now because of reason x,” are dissimilar only insofar as one’s future standards or Donald Trump’s behavior are likely to change. If the former is secure, then offering an incentive for good behavior would only have been to NeverTrumpers’ advantage.
But it’s not just the NeverTrumps who overcommitted themselves. Dennis Prager — who opposed Trump throughout the primaries but who argues that conservatives became morally obliged to support him once he became the nominee — provides an almost perfect example of the dangers of telling a candidate that it’s all-but-impossible for them to lose your vote:
There is nothing inherently wrong with Prager’s judgement that, given the stakes, it’s best to vote for Donald Trump over Hillary Clinton. But [arguing] that Clinton’s awfulness obliges one to vote for Trump removes any possibility of influence over the candidate. Though Prager has continued to criticize Trump regularly, it should come as little surprise that the candidate has taken so little heed; if NeverTrumpers have locked themselves out of negotiations, Prager and those like him have locked themselves in.
If you want to know who’s to blame for our current mess, the person who stares back at you from the mirror is probably a good starting point.
Published in General
Note:
Personal attack.This was the better of your two posts.I think this assumes that any of us could under ideal circumstances hold more influence over other’s opinions than we actually can. The real process of people changing their minds about things is long and drawn out. There is no perfect pathway of persuasion that would have converted significant numbers of Trump supporters in the time frame of the primaries.
I think you might actually be right on this, but the time horizon for dealing with Trump was potentially much longer that the primary season – up to 4 years if the current trend lines continue. It would have been better for conservatives if NeverTrumpers were part of the conversation of a Trump administration rather than being locked out.
I agree.
One hopes that he can put a decent team together, so I agree with this too.
They very likely don’t see it that way because of the oft-repeated statements by the candidate himself. Not direct quotes here, but I don’t think I am violating the spirit of the remarks I’m recalling:
Couple these with the credible reports over the last year of his refusal to take the advice of those he’s paying, or who he’s brought on board, to advise him, and I think the image of Donald as deal-making team player becomes tarnished very quickly.
So, I understand their reluctance, too. And the responsibility for it is due to no-one but Donald Trump.
It really should have been rather easy. And he has done everything he could to make it not so.
Excellent article, Tom. Thanks for sharing it. Even though I abhorred Trump from the start, I waited a long time before I made my decision. I was never a Never Trumper. People kept saying, he’ll turn presidential; he’ll go after Hillary; he’ll stop tweeting; he’ll listen to his staff; he’ll stop turning the topic back to himself; he’ll focus on the issues . . . the list goes on. Let’s just say I was skeptical. Tragically, my instincts were correct. Tough times are ahead for the Conservatives and the country, no matter who wins.
Jamie,
Don’t you see the absurdity of what you are saying to me? You want some rule book guarantee of what Trump might or might not do in the future as a reason to vote for him now. Meanwhile, the proven corrupt and dangerous behavior of the person who will be elected President of the United States if Trump is defeated, is of no interest to you at all. Hillary Clinton has already exhibited behaviors that should have made you commit to a policy of keeping her out of the White House. Yet, with six days left you are still playing games.
Regards,
Jim
Per Tom’s piece – I think Trump would have been better off had people like you been at least open to persuasion since he would have been forced to go after your vote. That would have made him, at least marginally, a better candidate.
Anybody here ever been on a coon hunt? One of the craziest sports(?) known to man. A number of men and boys (women could do it, I just never saw one) following frantic running and baying hounds up hill and down dale, through the swamps, creeks, briars, forests in the dark with loaded weapons. A certain amount of liquid refreshment makes it more tolerable and adds a certain je ne sais quoi. It makes a great metaphor for our political campaign. And it’s so American.
No I do not. I get that Hillary is bad, I do. But by saying she is so bad as to absolve anyone running against her of any sin you are acting just like the NeverTrumpers you decry. So Trump could rape a 5 year old at the podium and “he’s not Hillary so he’s got my vote”? Do you have a line at all? If so I’d like to know what it is.
You are correct, Jamie. I veered from Tom’s point: we had no leverage. Not committing right away does not mean never committing. I made my commitment, but thoughtfully and carefully. Trump had a chance early on. He has no chance with me now.
That’s pretty much my point James. Since Trump knows he can do, say, or think anything (so long as he doesn’t actually transform into Hillary Clinton) there is little to no motivation for him to be influenced by the electorate. None of that is a defense of Hillary being absolutely corrupt and horrible. I think the original post’s point was the the NeverTrump faction as well as many Trump supporters have ceded any influence they might have had over the candidate through overcommitment……such as unconditional support
If you want to know who’s to blame for our current mess, the person who stares back at you below … is probably a good starting point.
Please clap …
I think I lost any hope of Trump “hiring the best people!” after watching the people he surrounds himself with in his campaign. It’s a freaking clownshow.
Well I’m sure Murphy got a new Corvette out of the deal so it’s all good right??
Of course it’s helps that Trump is suddenly looking like a possible victor Something like that concentrates people’s minds. How sweet it would have been if he had fallen into the dustbin of history as most people expected. Then the Never Trumpers could have had it all – virtue, foresight, and schadenfreude. Those that jumped on the Trump train early rose in my estimation, they showed courage and foresight.
Jeb Bush? Out of the primaries, and off the radar, since February. What’s your point?
Point taken, I do seem to recall you being more open to persuasion during the primaries.
Something something something Bush. Something something Murphy. Something therefore Trump.
I think @jamesgawron has taken that title in this thread.
It’s enjoyable to read an analysis that doesn’t pass the buck of blame and tells people like it is.
“If you want to know who’s to blame for our current mess, the person who stares back at you from the mirror is probably a good starting point.”
I don’t like this anymore.
For me the answer to when did I stop beating my wife is, “I never did beat my wife”. And the answer to your question…Yes, but he hasn’t done it yet
Yes it will be a lot better when Hannity, Dobbs, Coulter, Ingraham and the like can scream everyone to OWN IT! I will look forward to Sean’s karate classes in the reeducation camps along with Wall Building 101.
Frank,
A passenger on the Titanic: “I don’t own stock in the White Star Line. The ship is their mess…blub blub blub..” C’mon Frank, I didn’t vote for Trump in the primaries either. In fact, I agreed with Peter that he was my seventeenth choice for Republican nominee. This isn’t about who’s to blame or who isn’t. This is about our last chance to keep Hillary Clinton out of the White House. Every vote and every electoral vote counts.
Sixfive days to go.Regards,
Jim
Early on my first choice was Scott Walker, but there were several other candidates I would have supported once he withdrew: Carly Fiorina, Marco Rubio were two.
I do not a criticize you (or anyone else) for having a negative position on Trump. The NeverTrumpers take an emotional position that is understandable. The point is that the NeverTrump approach is weak strategically. If conservatism is the goal, demanding that he earn the vote is the more strategic approach.
Yes, yes. Call someone else reasonable. Whatever you do, please don’t call me reasonable. I don’t come here to be reasonable. I have the real world for that.
Some quibbles:
What is implied here? Time to fall in line and cast an unwise vote?
Tom, I get your point in a normal election when the GOP candidate is within certain acceptable norms (when there is some semblance of adherence to conservative principles and acceptable character traits) but I think this election is an outlier. I don’t think your strategy (holding out hope to Trump that he could win over conservatives under some circumstances) would have worked. From the beginning Trump did everything he could to poke his finger in the eye of conservatives I guess as part of a Sista-Soljah type strategy, assuming the conservatives would come back to him anyway in the general election if Hillary (or Sanders) was the Democrat nominee. (And he may have gambled right–who knows–I do agree that #nevertrumpers will most likely be a non-factor, except maybe in Utah).
Any overtures to negotiation with Trump by conservatives would probably have been met with a response like this: “Now listen to my
terms: lower you flags, march straight back to the Heritage Institute, and along the way apologize to every voter you meet for 50 years of fighting for smaller government, freer trade, more open immigration, emphasis on social conservatism and family values, committing troops to fight communists, tyrannies and terrorist cells around the world,and failing to do more to stop (or reverse) the Obama agenda. Do it and I shall abide you remaining in the GOP. Do it not, and you and every man with you will be cast out of my party.”
I can support this with words (250 limit at a time), but since “a picture tells 1,000 words” I choose this route first.
Riddle me two things … 1) why did 17 ‘contenders’ (LOL!) throw their hats in the primary ring?; and 2) why did Murphy/Bush boast of the $100MM war chest that pre-empted even Mitt Romney from running again?