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Dogs That Do Not Bark
In November 2012, I learned that times had changed and that I no longer knew my country. I could not believe that, after what he had done to the US, my compatriots would re-elect Barack Obama — and I was wrong.
This year, I could not believe that Donald Trump would get the Republican Presidential nomination. He was not, to begin with, a Republican at all. He did not embrace the agenda Republicans at least pretend to support. And, let’s face it, he has not lived his life in a manner that anyone with a moral sense and aesthetic taste could approve. Anyone who is surprised at the remarks he made to Billy Bush has been wearing blinders. No one of his stripe, thought I, could get nominated. But, once again I was wrong.
Nor, earlier this year, could I believe that the Democratic Party would nominate Hillary Clinton for President. She was, I knew even then, a corpse. She had no pulse. Had you told me that Bernie Sanders — who is one of the few Democrats who more nearly resembles the living dead than Hillary — would be her only serious opponent, I would have guffawed. Tell me another, I would have said. Yes, I was wrong.
I expected Scott Walker to be a serious contender. I figured that Martin O’Malley — the only Democrat of any consequence who has not already in effect passed on — would emerge. I was wrong again. Neither of them got anywhere.
So there is one thing that I know. I know that I do not know what is going to happen — and when I look at the polls, count bumper stickers, and keep a record of the yard signs that I stumble across, my certainty grows that I do not know.
The polls suggest that Hillary will win — but not Rasmussen and not the LA Times.
I have yet to see a Hillary bumper sticker, but I have seen only one such Trump sticker. I have seen three Hillary yard signs and more than fifty Trump yard signs. And look: I have been all over. Texas, upstate New York, Silicon Valley, and Michigan north of Lansing. And get this: I saw more Bernie Sanders signs than Hillary signs, and I am talking about the last month.
It is positively eerie. It is as if no national election is going on. Let me be clear. I have seen lots of yard signs pertinent to local elections, next to none regarding any Congressional race, and just a few pertaining to the Presidential election. It leaves me wondering whether on the second Tuesday in November anyone will show up.
Let me add this. The Trump tapes are the talk of the news. But this talk has had no effect on the polls. It is as if no one really cares about the old codger’s trash talk.
There is this that may favor Hillary on 8 November. She has a get-out-the-vote operation that ought to be worth a point or two. There is this that may favor Trump on 8 November. Ronald Reagan used to outdo the polls by ca. 5 percent. There were lots of people who voted for him in every election he ran who would not admit it. Could the same be true for Trump?
Add this. There are people who love Trump. Never mind the fact that I think them mildly unhinged. They do exist, and they are numerous. Is there anyone who loves Hillary … apart from embittered feminists (but I repeat myself) of a certain age. It may be hard to get people to turn out for a person as malicious and unpleasant as she is.
If I were a betting man, I would bet on her — which suggests that she might lose.
Published in Politics
Heh. That may appeal to their refined sense of irony.
If the Bill Kristol contingent was smart they would have found someone to legally changed his name to “None of the Above” and gotten registered on as many ballots as possible. Would have won in a landslide.
I don’t think the number of yards signs (either way) is actually meaningful. This election has been so “polarizing” and nasty that a lot of people just don’t want a sign in their yard about it. I think people on both sides are embarrassed about who they are supporting.
Deep blue south Minneapolis. During the primaries there were plenty of Bernie signs – no Hillary signs. There are now a few, very few, Hillary signs. Even the morons with multiple local candidate and BLM signs in their yard don’t have a Hillary sign. Zero Trump signs, but like @richardeaston suggested, that may have more to do with fear of vandalism. If it wasn’t for my not having the right to endanger my wife and daughter, I would stick up a Trump sign, reluctant Trumper that I am, just to piss people off.
In Florida there are certainly more Trump signs and bumber stickers.
Depends. How much opium to you normally do?
@pencilvania The 8th PA congressional race is Brian Fitapatrick against Dem Steve Santarsiero. The US senate race is Katie McGinty against incumbent Pat Toomey.
[edited to correct spelling]
If you do enough opium to sleep for 4 years, you might well wake up to find that it’s October 2020, Clinton’s seeking re-election, and Rubio is ahead of her by 15 points.
I live in a town of 80,000+ with double that if you include nearby neighboring towns in SW Utah. So far I have seen 7 vehicles with Trump/Pence bumper stickers, none for Hillary and two for Bernie. Bernie & Cruz won the primary in Utah.
Yard signs for Trump/Pence number 11, none for Hillary and none for the Utah 3rd party candidate. Over 100 for local and county elections.I have been actively searching for Presidential signs but this is all I could find.
Since I know several Hillary supporters and even more Trump supporters I am guessing no one wants to publicly declare their affiliation for fear of vandalism or neighborhood arguments.We seem to be very embarrassed by both candidates.
I wish I could take Paul’s Hillary prediction with joy because I remember several posts from the 2012 election predicting a Romney win even during the last month. I am starting to wonder how many folks will even vote.
quite right, sorry!
Just saw a new sign today. Brown for U.S. Senate. He’s running as an independent, and he’s vowing to “take back” that august body. (For the independents? Bernie and Brown and who else, exactly?) 20% of the people who responded to his on-line poll think that the number one issue facing the U.S. is global warming.
UPDATE: I saw a Trump yard sign yesterday.
I live at ground zero for Democrats during the last three Presidential elections. My precinct on the West Side of Cleveland, Ohio (the strongest Democratic metropolis in the State), is the most liberal (among majority white neighborhoods) according to voting statistics from the local Board of Elections. We are still behind some all Black precincts that didn’t register a single vote for Romney nor McCain!
There was a curious lack of political signage in Cleveland until about one month ago when all Hell broke loose. After one of the many Hillary visits to Northeast Ohio, the Hillary signs came out by the thousands. Almost all of them are accompanied by signs for two local tax increases. Inexplicably, there are almost no accompanying signs for Ted Strickland, the Former Democratic Governor who is challenging Rob Portman in the Senate. Alas, he is behind Portland in the polls by hefty double digits.
Today I drove a 30 minute trip across town and into the Liberal Suburbs of Cleveland Heights and Shaker Heights. I probably passed by over a thousand Hillary signs. Didn’t see a single Trump sign. Nothing… Nada…Zilch…
There are some Trump/Pence signs in some of the Conservative Suburbs like Westlake and Bay Village, but not in huge numbers.
I got a new car, cannot risk a bumper sticker. Had GOP office fire bombed 50 miles away in Hillsborough,NC.
An old (Liberal) college friend is currently road tripping through Wisconsin. He rarely talks about politics, but I just noticed, he saw fit to comment on his Facebook feed:
“Interesting observation driving around Wisconsin. The Trump signs rarely share yard space with Paul Ryan and Ron Johnson signs”
Exactly right. There are probably a few more on this side of the state. Ryan has more loyalty in his district than my congressman, Sean Duffy does in ours. And Trump has not treated Ryan with the respect Ryan’s supporters think he deserves so that dampens his support there. Even without that conflict in our district, there are plenty of yards full of signs for every Republican running except Trump.