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My Money Is on a Trump Victory
For what it is worth: Nothing is ever certain, and much could go wrong, but my money remains on a Trump victory. Why?
1) It feels a whole lot like Reagan in ’80 and Newt in ’94.
Reagan was disliked by the establishment (who liked Baker or Bush), viewed with suspicion by professional conservatives (they liked Phil Crane, not a divorced, former Democrat, big spending governor), and regarded with condescension by the media and left (who saw him as stupid and a dangerous cowboy). Those camps could not fathom the breadth and depth of his popular momentum.
Ditto the GOP taking the House in ’94 – I was on CNN five weeks prior to that election, and produced outright guffaws and rolled eyes from everyone when I said that the GOP would win not just the Senate, but take the House. The signs were all there but because the idea seemed so preposterous, they couldn’t see.
More recently Matt Bevin was left for dead by most of the smart money in his race for KY governor, and Brexit was “sure” not to pass. Trump is an extension of that zeitgeist for many – a long awaited reclaiming of control of their lives, of their country, of their self-identity.
2) Who are you going to believe, polls or your lying eyes?
I started asking people in the spring for whom they were voting. A surprisingly large percentage of not-supposed-to-be-a-Trump-supporter types turned out to be exactly that. That includes rich and highly educated people, women, blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims. A bunch of anecdotes, but interesting.
Everyone keeps saying this election is about Trump. But I have come to believe it really is about his supporters, who to a person are deeply versed in all his flaws and faults and support him regardless. For them, this is about one or more of the following:
- deep antipathy for Hillary and all she represents and would do,
- disappointment with a broken system they feel has ignored and in some cases harmed them for years, or
- a reclaiming of the country and their own lives and personhood.
They genuinely love and worry about their country and they want to feel proud again to be an American.
3) If what got incinerated was a phoenix, don’t bet against it rising.
If you’ve seen someone succeed at something five or six or nine times, how smart is it to bet they won’t do it the 10th time? How many times was seemingly everyone sure that Trump was finished – only he came back stronger than before? Many of us missed, time and again, the meta messages Trump was sending that galvanize his support and many miss it still.
4) Stages of Grief
For two-thirds of GOP voters, Trump wasn’t just another candidate – he was the one potentially viable candidate they feared. So with Trump triumphant, enter the stages of grief – denial, anger, bargaining, depression, and finally acceptance, each at his or her own pace.
You can tell many are at that nadir of depression by the way those who are the most depressed about Trump interpret Trump. Having a predisposition, as understandable as it might be, can hinder our understanding of what is happening. If someone starts with the assumption that Trump is ignorant, stupid, or dangerous, it rules out considering the possibility that comments like “founders of ISIS” could simply be brilliant hyperbole.
In contrast, allowing the idea that Trump is actually as smart as his overall track record, even discounted, indicates, permits the perspective that his repeated “gaffes” are purposeful, and a calculated strategy to garner millions of dollars in free media, wherein his larger point gets made for him, over and over. That’s no mean feat in a media environment stacked in favor of the left and Democrats and against conservatives and any GOP nominee.
5) It’s still summer.
I have found that many folks who are normally GOP voters but who are unhappy about Trump largely fall into two camps. The first are those who object because Trump isn’t solidly, reliably conservative on their priority issues. The second are those who, at bottom, find Trump personally objectionable, as does almost everyone they know, so they feel that the prospect of supporting him would violate the way they see themselves and wish to have others think of them.
These are real concerns that even many Trump supporters say they have worked through. But if folks are hitting despair in August, that means they have September and October to move to acceptance. Why would they? Because Hillary’s presidency and all it implies will become so much more real.
Between the choice of someone who will get pretty much every policy decision wrong, versus someone who might get some of them right, more and more people who presently can’t see voting for Trump will decide that on the “lesser of two evils” spectrum, they will be a Trump voter, even if they are not a Trump supporter.
One cannot discount the barrage of negative ads that will come against Trump. And who knows what new revelations will shift the ground yet again? But particularly with increasing Clinton pay-to-play revelations, if by early October the social opprobrium shifts from “how could I possibly support him?” to “how could I possibly enable her?”, Republicans will win the presidency.
Published in General
Reagan was distant with people in his personal life. He’s was an alcoholic’s son, so that’s normal. It doesn’t somehow change the fact that Reagan’s kids know their Father and what he believed in. Nor does it change the fact that Nancy was distressed about the primary before she died, predominantly because of Trump if rumors are to be believed, because she feared she was seeing the end of her husband’s style of politics, and what he built.
Which isn’t surprising. Trump never liked Reagan, and he acts nothing like him, nor does he support the ideals Reagan promoted. Reagan (rightfully) distrusted the power of the federal government and what that power could do to harm normal people, Trump loves nothing but power. Reagan said he was fighting to give power back to the people, to live their lives as they want, because only the people living their own lives free from the power of the state can help rebuild the republic. Trump says “only he” can “save” the country.
Those two messages are in exact opposition to each other.
You call yourself goldwaterwoman and are lamenting a conservative takeover of the Republican Party?
Totally agree. Sorry, but I need to leave this discussion as there are many pressing projects for me today. Also, I’m weary of the argument.
Conservatives talk like this and then vote for a crony congress. They trashed the Tea Party as boobs and idiots. They trash Trump supporters as the same. Their hero is Paul Ryan who funds everything Obama wants. They never had the moral high ground ,
Michael Ramirez ping to @6foot2inhighheels …
I’m a conservative. I’ve never voted for a crony Congress. I never trashed the tea party as boobs and idiots. I’ve never trashed most Trump supporters as same. I don’t regard Ryan as a hero, only as a smart man, and he doesn’t “fund everything” Obama wants. I don’t do moral high ground. So that’s 1/2 out of 4, with one abstention.
Of what Obama wants, what hasn’t been funded?
Great- you now have earned the moral molehill.
Define “wants.” It’s not the same as “actually proposed.” There is stuff that isn’t proposed and not even sent to Congress because the stuff is a non-starter. Let’s put Nanny Pelosi back in the Speaker’s chair and we’ll have a better idea of what “wants” means.
Including legislation that he proposed but that was defeated:
I think a lot of the conservatives you’re talking about are/were members of the Tea Party.
Tom, if they were, I would not talk about them that way.
I do recall a lot of “conservatives’ being less than happy about the tea party at the time. Perhaps you do not. Pundits included. Many are todays #NeverEvers.
This has been my experience as well. Including otherwise politically quiescent youngsters who only became active because of the Tea Party.
Off the top of my head: Ben Shapiro, Jonah Goldberg, and Kevin Williamson were all big supporters of the TEA Party movement when it emerged.
As for Ricochet’s members I know that Tom and I were both TEA Party members in our own locales.
I agree. Boehner, McConnell, the talking heads on Fox, and National Review all referred to the Tea Party disparagingly as they began to roll out across the country with Sara Palin as their primary spokesperson. It was only after they started to gain significant members in Congress that they became somewhat de riguer.
You know that Boehner and Trump are texting and golf buddies, yes?
Oh, come on Tom, you are better than “Guilt by Foursome Association”.
I expect more biting ripostes from you.
Nice try. Conservatives built the Tea Party. I was there from the start when Doug Hoffman pushed out Dede Scozzafava. We stood against her because she was anit free trade, close to labor unions, was close to Planned Parenthood and defend the organization, talked positively about the Stimulus Package, and was for nationalized Health Care. Very similar to Trump in that regard.
Hell even Gringrich supported her, and gave some talk about “voting for the party”. Some things never change.
Glenn Beck and the 9/12 Project was the forerunner, and predominate spokesperson. Doug Hoffman’s first major interview was with Beck.
Boehner on the other hand always hated the Tea Party, but was over joyed to be aligned with Trump.
I also remember trying to take out Harry Reid 6 years ago, when one Donald Trump donated a thousands to Reid and the “Defeat the Tea Party” Pac.
We are and you do. I’ve been fighting Trump for almost a decade, back then he was being honest about his Democratic heart and was giving thousands to left wing causes, including Clinton herself. He also paled around with George Soros a lot, which is likely why he told people to “leave Soros alone”.
I’ll take that action, Heather. Give you 3:1 odds, even. Here’s your chance to clean up!
Heather says “A surprisingly large percentage of not-supposed-to-be-a-Trump-supporter types turned out to be exactly that. That includes rich and highly educated people, women, blacks, Hispanics, and Muslims. A bunch of anecdotes, but interesting.”
I was in Phoenix Weds. night for the speech…most surprising thing was the audience. Many young people, many Hispanic families with kids and, as my husband repeatedly pointed out, lots of beautiful women. (Anecdotal)
A reporter interviewing a couple next to me asked “How do you feel about those who say Trump fans are unsophisticated and uneducated?” When the interview was over, I touched the reporter and said, “I heard your question and I thought you should know that I am a former political science graduate student from Stanford and I am 100% on the Trump train.” She blinked and moved on. (Anecdotal)
When I went to the women’s restroom it was the typical scene at a large public event…20 or so women in line waiting. I said “We must be the women who aren’t voting for Trump.” Two women in sombreros (yes, sombreros and Trump T-shirts) said “We are!” (Anecdotal)