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Confessions of an #AlmostNeverTrumper … And What Could Make Me Change My Mind
In one of my first posts for Ricochet, I outlined what I thought was the most important aspects of picking a president: understanding their core values and priorities. The presidency is a huge job where enormous amounts of information comes the way of the president who, being human, has only so much time and attention. That’s part of the reason why all presidents are ultimately a bit of a disappointment. At best, a president will only be able to accomplish a few things and those things need to be very important if the country is to benefit.
For an example of clear priorities, take Ronald Reagan. First, he had to arrest the economic free fall America was in after Carter, which he did by fighting inflation, tax reform, and giving confidence to the business community by breaking unions and asserting a steady economic hand. Second, he moved on to winning the Cold War by accelerating a military build-up at home while exploiting Soviet economic weaknesses wherever ever he found opportunity. After effectively winning, Reagan was able to turn his attention to ensuring that George H. W. Bush could succeed him and cement his legacy. To be fair, he only slowed (rahter than truly curtailed) the administrative state, and his judicial nominations were a very mixed lot. He also compromised on immigration, not grasping what the new immigration regime doing to the country, nor the effect his amnesty would have on the future.
The point of this brief summary is that — taking his presidency as a whole — Reagan moved the entire country and culture in a healthy way his legacy benefits us still to this day. For more proof, just think to the priorities of the first Bush, how he carried them out and the different outcome he achieve despite real competence and massive success at his priorities.
Which brings me to Donald Trump. I believe that Trump is, vaguely, a Republican rather than a Democrat in disguise. Trump’s politically incorrect rhetoric is genuine and — to the extent he panders — he finds pandering more palatable when it’s to Republicans and our interests than to Democrats and theirs. Second, it’s no coincidence that he saw the market opportunity on the Republican side. While Hillary Clinton had some of the Democrats’ most powerful interest groups wrapped-up, the Republicans manifestly and obviously did not have any leader that was connecting to the base in a powerful way. This provided Trump with a great opportunity to make headway and then win the Republican nomination.
With Trump now the presumptive nominee, we have to look at what his core. For his whole life, Trump has been driven by his own success. This shows in the way he treats vendors, old women that stand in the way of parking his cars, the students at Trump University, and his branding deals that got him his money even if the venture was a failure. In a businessman and a showman, this is not necessarily a bad trait and Trump’ success does somewhat speak for itself.
My problem is that this desire of Trump to simply win for his own benefit continues while he is a presidential candidate and the face of a movement. His primary advisors are his own children, and he shows great reluctance to change his behavior for the benefit of anyone else. Since this campaign is about him, why should he change for anyone else? The RNC and other Republicans are far more likely to change for the benefit of Trump, not the other way around. So what if the RNC did not do the primary GOTV operations for the presidential campaign? They will do so now because they must change to suit Trump, and it suits Trump to have the RNC do GOTV.
As far as I can tell, Trump is still operating on the principle that the presidency is about him and it is about him winning. If Trump wins, that will be his core principle. Everything will be about Trump winning, what makes him feel like he wins, what makes him feel like he is having a legacy. This negates Trump’s main talent of making making deals because what we want from a great negotiator is the achievement of the right goal; great negotiation toward a bad goal is not a good thing.
Take Reagan and Gorbachev at Reykjavik. Our president walked away with nothing and — in doing so — won the Cold War. Everything in Trump would have screamed for him to make a deal and bask in the glory of having done so. Where would we be today if that happened?
There are also the matters of experience and ideology. The president receives way too much information for any one man to process, so it must come to him pre-filtered. Trump has neither the ideology nor the experience in politics and global affairs to help him navigate through all that he doesn’t know, and will not know when to push advisors, ask for more options, or how to get a view outside of his own bubble. The people he trusts and respects are not more knowledgeable in these areas that he is, so it’s likely that the winner of these arguments will be whomever best stokes Trump’s ego and makes him feel like his option is the “winning option” for Trump.
This also limits the benefit of having Republicans fill the posts in his administration. Lacking a solid ideology, Trump will judge his appointees by how they make him look. This means there will be little real reform and, if someone really tries to do something good, Trump will not know if he should back him or not.
One thing we know for sure is that Trump is not winning when he limits his own power and ability for action. That means the executive will continue in his imperial ways; if you like the Obama Administration that way, you are going to love a Trump Administration.
A Trump Presidency based on Turmp’s core principles will lead to a great deal of failure, many liberal victories, a few conservatives ones, a terrible foreign policy, and a likely rise in corruption given the need to get Trump’s ear to make anything happen. Conservative victories will be accidents and, when the Democrats roll Trump, he will be extremely hard to resist. His mistakes will color the entire Republican party and his foreign policy mistakes will most likely be huge.
On the other hand, a Trump Presidency means we beat the Democrats, which has it own advantages.
Trump has no loyalty to any ideology, which means he has no commitment to any hard position, even on immigration; from what I have seen, Trump will deliver us the Senate Gang of Eight bill, albeit slightly modified, and his rhetoric on border security will give him cover to follow his instincts of a big business guy who likes cheap, imported labor. There is really no downside for Trump in doing a deal like that.
I see a Trump Presidency that would be just as disastrous as Clinton’s, though disastrous in differet ways. Moreover, these failures will come home to roost on our barn, leaving the Democrats clean to elect a far-left ideologue without the Clinton baggage. That would not be a victory.
So how can I can my mind be changed? I need is evidence that Trump’s core principles align with mine. I would need to see evidence that Trump is acquiring experienced hands that he actually listens too, and that he is honing his knowledge on policy so he can bring conservative reforms. I would need to see him willing to sacrifice his own instincts for the betterment of the Republican/Conservative movements. In essence, I need evidence that he is willing to sacrifice for the good of the country even if it means that he is not personally “winning.” Until I see that, voting for Trump is just voting for a disaster every bit as much as voting for Clinton would be.
Even if Trump changed, I’d hardly be an enthusiast and would never expect him to be a great president. I could, however, accept that he actually is the lesser of two evils and that his presidency — while not being good — would good enough to earn my vote.
Published in Politics
I somehow doubt you will be convinced. You are making the perfect the enemy of the good. Re read Jindal’s essay wrt Trump being the second worse choice in November.
This is a movement election and a revolution of sorts. The GOP establishment has ignored the voters and patronized them with each successive election.
We need to clean house on K street. And the cartel. Do you see Dems waxing forth on whether Hillary’s tax increases will cause recession? How will her leftward move deal with deficits and entitlements? Of course not. They want to win.
So do most of us conservatives.
We have a binary choice.
I can be convinced. It’s not even that hard, but Trump isn’t trying.
The bigger problem is the Trump supporters, who are making it very clear to me that I do not belong anywhere near the Republican party. Unfortunately, this election has disabused me of many long-held beliefs.
I do not think you can be convinced. I am a Reagan conservative and was a Cruz supporter. It didn’t take me long during the primary to realize I would be voting for Trump.
Hillary requires a lot more gut checking among loyal Democrats to vote for her . I felt the same way about Trumpsters’ nasty when directed at Ted. But I then realized: They might be right. He might be crazy. But it just might be a lunatic we’re looking for. The genteel GOP’s of the McCain, Dole, Romney, W sort? Boehner? Ryan? Kasich? Jeb? NONE of them has the stomach–the balls– to fight the modern Dem slime machine. Trump does. You can join George Will in the old GOP. I won’t go back to that cartel including the current leadership , McConnel and Ryan ever again. We have all had an eye opener. THANKS TO TRUMP.
After thirty-plus years in Connecticut, where my vote has never mattered, I was so excited to move to Florida, where my vote might mean something. Sigh.
Again, what is Trump fighting for? It is not what you think it is. He does not think like you, he does not see problems in the same light that you do. You have a vastly different understanding of the Constitution than he does. Trump may very well have what it takes to deliver the low blows to the Dems that they richly, richly deserve. If Hillary is fool enough to debate Trump I think he will eat her lunch because what she thinks will be a defense against Trump won’t work.
But then what? What is the core of the man? What will he do with the power he kept from Hillary. I think the only thing that could convince the American people that Hillary would have been a fine President is seeing Trump try and fail at the job.
Could be worse. I live in Miami-Dade County. Among the bluest in the State due to you -know-who.
After seeing Bush 41 and then W fritter away the Reagan patrimony? The GOP House and Senate stand around and do nothing? Just having Trump nominate a SCOTUS nominee along the those on his list? And agitate for stronger borders? A Major Immigration reform ala 1924? Exposing the lies and deceit wrt the 1965 Immigration Act, and reversing it?
That would be enough. In fact, gridlocked congress for 4 years and a chance to curl more Rinos would be more than sufficient.
Don’t make the perfect the enemy of the good,. Hillary would be an unmitigated disaster.
This is nonsense. We stood and screamed what an empty suit Obama was –and he exceeded our fears in sheer ideological audacity and executive incompetence. Do you see the left wringing their hands in disappointment?
You need to stiffen your spine and realize what is at stake. Whining that we have no Washington or Reagan on the stage is a waste of time. TRUMP is far less of a chance than Hillary. Not even debatable, in fact. Listen to real conservatives who GET It. Rush, Gingrich. Jindal. Sessions. And reject Democrats who play conservatives like Krauthammer and Will. Establishment hacks. Help us win. Remember: We had to rise up to prevent W from appointing his personal lawyer to the SCOTUS. We will do the same and hold Trump’s feet to the fire in the single most important aspect of this election. You can withstand a Trump presidency in exchange for a conservative SCOTUS appointment Maybe 2 . Ginsboig isn’t long for her seat. A small compromise of your preferences to prevent a generation of left-wing SCOTUS decisions.
If that was all he would do I would vote for him straight away, even would crawl over broken glass to do it. If Trump were to say “Listen I will do these things on Otium list only, will not run foreign policy or anything else, then I would be the first person in line to vote for the man. However he will do more than this and I doubt he will even do anything on list except nominate a Conservative to fills Scalia seat he may very well fail to get the nomination past the senate and then nominate a moderate liberal but I am 80% sure his first nomination at least will be a conservative.