The Hot Mess

 

Rules of the road:

  • Don’t tug on Superman’s cape.
  • Don’t spit into the wind.
  • Don’t poke the mask off the old Lone Ranger.
  • Don’t try to rationalize with a Trump supporter on Twitter*.

The Twittersphere is ablaze this morning with Trump supporters crying about the “stolen” election in Colorado, the “disenfranchisement” of a million Republicans and the general “not cool” factor surrounding their candidates inability to secure delegates to the national convention.

On both sides of the aisle the march to the conventions is a hot mess. The reason is that it is not a single process. Counting both parties it is a set of over 100 processes. Each state and territory has its own rules and its own way of selecting delegates.

Chicago

“Hello, Democrats! Welcome to Chicago!” So said the signs put up by the Richard J. Daley Administration. The Welcoming Committee of the CPD greets visitors downtown.

In 1968 there were but 12 states that held primaries. The riots at the Democratic Convention in Chicago led both parties to “democratize” the selection process. But because it’s not really one system it’s grown more like a patch of weeds than grown like a garden. It has failed multiple times in the past and managed to nominate the unlikable and the unelectable, but it has never happened to both parties at the same time the way it has in 2016.

Trump, according to The Denver Post, didn’t even have a paid staffer on the ground in Colorado until last week. The man who promises to hire the best staff didn’t. Ted Cruz’s organization is running rings around him, particularly in states where the selection process is more fluid.

Unfortunately this tells us a lot about both The Donald and ourselves.

What is says about Trump is that he is totally unprepared. Somewhere along the line he decided that he could Tweet his way to the White House, that if he stamped and stomped and cried about “unfairness” he could alter the facts on the ground to suit him. This doesn’t work in politics and it sure doesn’t work in the dirty business of governing. If you’re not prepared to take on the Colorado GOP you’re not prepared to take on Putin, China or a flood of immigrants.

What is says about us is that we can’t have a majority of citizens come to the table only once every four years.  The crowds of Bernie supporters and Trump supporters haven’t become armed mobs yet. But the operative word is “yet.”

*Or as the original Jim Croce lyrics insisted, You don’t mess around with Big Jimmy Walker down on 42nd Street.
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  1. Frank Soto Member
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    Lazy_Millennial:

    BrentB67:

    Sweezle:

    My question is what happens if Trump gets to 1,237 anyway with his lackadaisical campaign?

    I don’t know what happens if that scenario plays out.

    #NeverTrump conservatives stay home, rest of GOP buckles up, digs in, rallies around Trump and fights the Clinton machine. I give it ~75% chance Clinton wins, which would be ~95% any other year that hadn’t been this crazy already.

    ~25% chance we inaugurate President Trump.

    Clinton +10.5 over Trump.

    • #31
  2. Lazy_Millennial Inactive
    Lazy_Millennial
    @LazyMillennial

    Frank Soto:

    Lazy_Millennial:

    BrentB67:

    Sweezle:

    My question is what happens if Trump gets to 1,237 anyway with his lackadaisical campaign?

    I don’t know what happens if that scenario plays out.

    #NeverTrump conservatives stay home, rest of GOP buckles up, digs in, rallies around Trump and fights the Clinton machine. I give it ~75% chance Clinton wins, which would be ~95% any other year that hadn’t been this crazy already.

    ~25% chance we inaugurate President Trump.

    Clinton +10.5 over Trump.

    Again, ~75% chance he loses. Any other year, that would be ~95%

    • #32
  3. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    GirlWithAPearl: could you speak more about your last ‘graph – about the mobs not becoming armed “yet” – am curious and alarmed

    If you take the view that the whole system is corrupt your options are limited. You either produce a majority so large that it’s tamper proof and you can reform the system OR you openly revolt. Otherwise you resign yourself to the status quo.

    What do you think Bernie and Trump supporters are apt to do?

    • #33
  4. Richard Fulmer Inactive
    Richard Fulmer
    @RichardFulmer

    EJHill:

    GirlWithAPearl: could you speak more about your last ‘graph – about the mobs not becoming armed “yet” – am curious and alarmed

    If you take the view that the whole system is corrupt your options are limited. You either produce a majority so large that it’s tamper proof and you can reform the system OR you openly revolt. Otherwise you resign yourself to the status quo.

    What do you think Bernie and Trump supporters are apt to do?

    Great question.  Trump supporters over on the World Net Daily site to which Drudge linked earlier today are working themselves into a frenzy.  They’ve convinced themselves that Cruz is corrupt (even though he was simply following the rules) and the GOP is corrupt (even though the states determine how their delegates are selected).  The few people who try to explain the rules are being shouted down.  Disagreement is proof of evil intent.  They sound like leftists.

    • #34
  5. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Frank Soto:

    ~25% chance we inaugurate President Trump.

    Clinton +10.5 over Trump.

    Isn’t this the same site that insisted Rubio would be the nominee for quite a long time?

    • #35
  6. Dan Hanson Thatcher
    Dan Hanson
    @DanHanson

    GirlWithAPearl:

    edit: forgot to mention this observation, that Drudge is becoming kook central, as much as breitbart, nothing more than a shill and HQ for every interweb conspiracy

    Thanks for pointing this out!  I was thinking of posting a story about just how awful Drudge has become.   Headlines like “ELECTION STOLEN?” as large banners are not helping to cool people down.  Drudge appears to be all-in for Trump,  and the headlines all appear to be slanted against Cruz and for Trump.

    And it’s not just that.  His sources for many subjects are becoming kookier.  Major headlines that link to Alex Jones’ Info-Wars or crackpot UFO sites do nothing to help Drudge’s credibility.   It’s becoming the National Enquirer of news aggregation sites.

    • #36
  7. Frank Soto Member
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    iWe:

    Frank Soto:

    ~25% chance we inaugurate President Trump.

    Clinton +10.5 over Trump.

    Isn’t this the same site that insisted Rubio would be the nominee for quite a long time?

    No, this Rcp polling average.

    • #37
  8. Nick Stuart Inactive
    Nick Stuart
    @NickStuart

    GOP nomenklatura may be able to manage to use rules and process to juggle the nomination away from Trump, maybe even from Trump and Cruz.

    It is unlikely they’ll be able to manage to win the general after alienating all the people who thought their votes for Trump and Cruz counted for something.

    • #38
  9. The Scarecrow Thatcher
    The Scarecrow
    @TheScarecrow

    She: stood on the matter in 2000, when Gore won the popular vote, but Bush had more electoral college votes.

    (beside the point for a second) Everybody keeps saying Gore won the popular vote. But even Gore himself keeps saying that they didn’t count all the votes!  How do we know that Gore won the popular vote – we just project that he did.

    In states where either one was clearly going to win, they stopped counting – so we have an incomplete tally. In Florida, they recounted and recounted, coming up with a different total each time.  With all this (Gore-forced) re-tabulating going on, how can we confidently conclude who won the popular vote?

    We do know that Bush won the one that the constitution requires. Maybe the irrelevant one too, who knows?

    • #39
  10. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    The Scarecrow: In states where either one was clearly going to win, they stopped counting…

    No. Every vote was counted. Every ballot is counted because there are dozens of races that need to be tallied below the presidential level.

    By all counts Gore won nationwide by 500,000 votes. But the way I explain that situation is with a baseball analogy. Votes are hits and the Electoral College votes are runs. You can be outhit in baseball and still win.

    • #40
  11. Umbra Fractus Inactive
    Umbra Fractus
    @UmbraFractus

    Richard Fulmer:Trump’s ignorance of the rules proves that he’s an outsider, while Cruz’s knowledge of the rules proves that he’s a member of the GOPe. Trump’s ignorance is, therefore, his primary qualification for the office of president. It’s all so simple.

    The worst part is, I’m only 99% sure this is sarcasm.

    • #41
  12. Umbra Fractus Inactive
    Umbra Fractus
    @UmbraFractus

    Majestyk: Trump and his people didn’t get this because they’re apparently incapable of reading. They also appear to be incompetent, blustering buffoons on top of that.

    Trump: I don’t need to know this stuff. I’ll just hire great people.

    Cruz: I both know more and am hiring better people.

    • #42
  13. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    Congratulations to the Cruz team for a good tactical victory.

    I am sure had it gone the other way, we would be hearing about the undemocratic process and Trump ‘buying’ the delegates

    Stop painting the Cruz team as choirboys helping old ladies across the street. If they had lost,  I would expect them to go for the PR win.

    It is politics, folks. If you lose and the other guy used an obscure method to win that looks bad, you grab the PR headline.

    This is working the refs during a game, the refs being voters.

    Colorado decided to go party control. Their call. Do not complain when the media imagery stinks. Take your win , and go fight the next one.

    • #43
  14. Frank Soto Member
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    TKC1101: Stop painting the Cruz team as choirboys helping old ladies across the street.

    No one is doing that. We are pointing out that the Trump team is incompetent and/or illiterate in contrast to the Cruz team.

    • #44
  15. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    Frank Soto: No one is doing that. We are pointing out that the Trump team is incompetent and/or illiterate in contrast to the Cruz team.

    Then I assume the Cruz team was competent in Michigan also?

    • #45
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