On to South Carolina and Nevada and Nevada and South Carolina

 

SC_NV1As campaign suspensions, political fallout, and bitter recriminations rain down after the New Hampshire vote, what is the state of the race? I’ll handle the circus on the left first.

Cirque du Socialisme: After the near even split of Iowa followed by Bernie Sanders’s 22-point trouncing of Hillary in New Hampshire, the red diaper pensioner should be in great shape, right? Not so fast. This being the Democratic Party, Feel the Berners have good reason to complain about rich, powerful interests gaming the system to keep them down.

New Hampshire has 24 pledged delegates, allotted based on the popular vote. Sanders has 15, Clinton has nine, and the last two are uncommitted. So far, so good. But there are also eight unpledged delegates, or “superdelegates” — party officials who can support whomever they wish. Surprise, surprise, six of these are firmly in Hillary’s pantsuit pocket, while the other two are uncommitted. So, despite the historic shellacking, Clinton and Sanders both leave the Granite State with 15 delegates. Wait, it gets worse, Team Bernie!

The squeaker in Iowa left Hillary with 29 delegates to Bernie’s 21. Superdelegates made the difference there as well. But then you need to factor in the superdelegates all over the country. Before a single vote was cast, Hillary already secured the support of a whopping 300 while Bernie had only eight.

Democratic Party Delegate Count

  • Hillary Clinton: 394
  • Bernie Sanders: 44

Really, can you blame the little socialists for claiming the game is rigged?

GOP Jack-knifed Across the Moderate Lane: Compared to the donkey rodeo on the left, the GOP delegate picture is straightforward. After the votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, here’s the breakdown.

Republican Party Delegate Count

  • Donald Trump: 17
  • Ted Cruz: 11
  • Marco Rubio: 10
  • John Kasich: 5
  • Jeb Bush: 4
  • Ben Carson: 3
  • Carly Fiorina: 1
  • Rand Paul: 1

Perhaps if Rubio handled Saturday’s debate a bit better, he might have pulled a delegate each from Bush, Kasich, and Cruz. This would have set up a 17-13 split between Trump and Rubio, with Cruz at 10. That (or something close) would have comforted Team Marco heading in to the Palmetto State and whatever it is they call Nevada. But, fate being a fickle mistress, the so-called “moderate lane” is now a full-on traffic jam with Kasich playing bumper car in a mail truck and an reinvigorated Jeb jack-knifed across I-26.

The public polls in South Carolina and Nevada are fairly useless since all were taken well before the Iowa Caucus. New Hampshire reset the terms of the debate; but given the rough-and-tumble history of the Carolina politics, expect a knife fight.

Gentlemen, Start Your Calendars: In Iowa and New Hampshire, both parties voted on the same day. Not so in South Carolina and Nevada.

  • Saturday, Feb.20: Republicans vote in South Carolina.
  • Saturday, Feb. 20: Democrats vote in Nevada.
  • Tuesday, Feb. 23: Republicans vote in Nevada.
  • Saturday, Feb. 27: Democrats vote in South Carolina.

Then, on Tuesday, March 1, you have Super Tuesday, in which 15 states/territories will vote. Perhaps after that, we’ll finally have a clearer picture on who will win the party nominations.

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  1. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    Its time for everybody to fall in line behind gilmore.

    • #1
  2. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    Guruforhire:Its time for everybody to fall in line behind gilmore.

    Happy Gilmore? I’m in.

    • #2
  3. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Cirque

    • #3
  4. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    EJHill:Cirque

    There are some things, once seen, that cannot be unseen.

    Seawriter

    • #4
  5. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Seawriter: There are some things, once seen, that cannot be unseen.

    That happens quite a bit around here…

    • #5
  6. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Wouldn’t it be interesting if Bernie trounces Hillary in the popular vote, and Hillary gets the nomination?  What would be even more interesting would be for the media to call attention to it now and then.

    • #6
  7. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    The Reticulator:Wouldn’t it be interesting if Bernie trounces Hillary in the popular vote, and Hillary gets the nomination? What would be even more interesting would be for the media to call attention to it now and then.

    That’s an interesting prospect.  A significant number of Democrat voters might refuse to vote for Hillary out of anger at the undemocratic nature of her nomination.  Especially since the Clintons have had a shady reputation going back decades.  I’m not saying great numbers of them would vote Republican but they might vote Green Party, Socialist, or just not vote for president at all.

    • #7
  8. John Seymour Member
    John Seymour
    @

    The Reticulator:Wouldn’t it be interesting if Bernie trounces Hillary in the popular vote, and Hillary gets the nomination? What would be even more interesting would be for the media to call attention to it now and then.

    Even more interesting might be the response of Bernie’s legions of ardent young supporters in the streets of Philadelphia – that might be tough for even the NYT to ignore.

    • #8
  9. Mark Coolidge
    Mark
    @GumbyMark

    Randy Weivoda:

    The Reticulator:Wouldn’t it be interesting if Bernie trounces Hillary in the popular vote, and Hillary gets the nomination? What would be even more interesting would be for the media to call attention to it now and then.

    That’s an interesting prospect. A significant number of Democrat voters might refuse to vote for Hillary out of anger at the undemocratic nature of her nomination. Especially since the Clintons have had a shady reputation going back decades. I’m not saying great numbers of them would vote Republican but they might vote Green Party, Socialist, or just not vote for president at all.

    Hillary got more votes than Obama during the 2008 primary season.  She lost, if I remember right.

    • #9
  10. Eric Hines Inactive
    Eric Hines
    @EricHines

    Not to put too fine a quibble on the thing, but the Democratic Primary in Nevada is a caucus, not a vote.

    Folks have to show up in person to caucus over some number of hours.

    The caucus is set for 20 Feb, a Saturday.  How many observant Jewish Democrats are there in Harry Reid’s back yard?

    Eric Hines

    • #10
  11. Eeyore Member
    Eeyore
    @Eeyore

    Eric Hines: Not to put too fine a quibble on the thing, but the Democratic Primary in Nevada is a caucus, not a vote.

    I wonder if one of the caucus sites will be under the Pomegranate trees in Searchlight…

    • #11
  12. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    Is Nevada winner take all?  I thought I heard it was.  And is the GOP a Primary or a Caucus in Nevada?

    • #12
  13. John Hendrix Thatcher
    John Hendrix
    @JohnHendrix

    Jon Gabriel, Ed.:The squeaker in Iowa left Hillary with 29 delegates to Bernie’s 21. Superdelegates made the difference there as well. But then you need to factor in the superdelegates all over the country. Before a single vote was cast, Hillary already secured the support of a whopping 300 while Bernie had only eight.

    Democratic Party Delegate Count

    • Hillary Clinton: 394
    • Bernie Sanders: 44

    Really, can you blame the little socialists for claiming the game is rigged?

    The Dems need superdelegates so as to prevent their autistic super-genius primary voters from nominating yet another SMOD-worthy electoral catastrophe like McGovern. Bernie Sanders just proves that Democratic party still needs to provide institutional restraints so as to safeguard their primary voters from self-injurious behaviors.

    That said, GOP primary voters favoring Trump is nothing if not SMOD-worthy self-injurious behavior. But I’d rather send Trump back to the Democrats in a sealed rail car than add superdelegates to the GOP primaries.

    • #13
  14. Chris Campion Coolidge
    Chris Campion
    @ChrisCampion

    Seawriter:

    EJHill:Cirque

    There are some things, once seen, that cannot be unseen.

    Seawriter

    At first glance, it’s easy to miss the hippie.  No, I mean the other, older, more dead hippie.

    • #14
  15. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    Cirque du Socialisme

    Hahaha, love that!  Great turn of phrase. :)

    I can’t believe Rubio dropped like that over a silly debate mistake.  I guess his support wasn’t solid.  The only support that appears to be solid is the core Trump support.

    • #15
  16. Eric Hines Inactive
    Eric Hines
    @EricHines

    Sash:Is Nevada winner take all? I thought I heard it was. And is the GOP a Primary or a Caucus in Nevada?

    Both parties caucus, and the delegates are apportioned in rough accordance with caucus “precinct” voting.  The Democratic Party considers candidates with less than 15% voter support in one of its caucus precincts to be beneath Party notice, and those candidates’ supporters are “encouraged” to join with another candidate; although, the trivial candidate’s supporters can try to draw other candidate supporters to their guy in enough numbers to make him viable.

    Eric Hines

    • #16
  17. Jon Gabriel, Ed. Admin
    Jon Gabriel, Ed.
    @jon

    Eric Hines:Not to put too fine a quibble on the thing, but the Democratic Primary in Nevada is a caucus, not a vote.

    Folks have to show up in person to caucus over some number of hours.

    The caucus is set for 20 Feb, a Saturday. How many observant Jewish Democrats are there in Harry Reid’s back yard?

    Eric Hines

    Absolutely. The unions need to keep an eye on their members, dontchaknow…

    • #17
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