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Welcome, Montenegro!
Welcome, Montenegro!
One for all, and all for one!
I know I speak for every American when I say that we — each and every one of us — are prepared to defend your quaint Adriatic statelet with every bit of our blood and treasure.
I’m sure the rest of the members of NATO feel exactly the same way. (I’m almost sure, anyway. Croatia? You good? You better be. I mean, when there’s a bear in the woods, who really cares about the status of Prevlaka, right?)
Anyway, Montenegro, you can count on America. Everyone in America has thought deeply about our commitment to the 650,000 citizens of your mountainous new state. We welcome the extra security we feel in our homeland from knowing that your 1,950 active-duty military personnel — who inherited their equipment from the armed forces of the State Union of Serbia and Montenegro — have our backs. Just as we have yours.
We’ve come a long ways since we bombed you senseless 16 years ago, haven’t we? It even seems polls in your country are narrowly in favor of being our new ally, which is great. We’d hardly want your first-ever experience of being part of a massive defense bloc to happen without your consent. (Well, actually, it looks as if it was about evenly split, and maybe even against it, given the margin of error, but at least you’re not wildly opposed, right?)
I don’t know about polls in my country, but I’m sure that if asked, everyone on Ricochet would agree: An armed attack Montenegro shall be considered an attack against us, and consequently we agree that, if such an armed attack occurs, each of us, in exercise of the right of individual or collective self-defence recognised by Article 51 of the Charter of the United Nations, will assist Montenegro by taking forthwith, individually and in concert with the rest of NATO — even you, Croatia, and stop looking like no one explained this part to you — such action as it deems necessary, including the use of armed force, to restore and maintain the security of the North Atlantic area.
Montenegro: the Turks are now your allies! I bet this is a very new, strange feeling for you. Does it make you nervous? I admit it does me, and I’m not even the junior partner in this alliance. You’ve got to be wondering about this business between Erdoğan and Putin. Maybe you’re asking yourselves if now you have to make your bones by shooting down a Russian plane or something? Frankly, I don’t think you have to — and I don’t even think you should. I’m not authorized to say that officially, of course. I’m just speculating, individual citizen to individual citizen. It’s definitely not like they tell the American people anything about the important stuff, either. But I’m pretty sure Erdoğan did it without asking — he’s kind of a loose cannon that way. But you’d know all about Turkish cannons.
Anyway.
I sure hope Russia doesn’t try to destabilize you, now. Bet you hope the same. That would be just like them, though, if they tried. But you’re in NATO, now, so don’t you worry. We won’t let Russia mess with you. In fact, you can even mess with them a bit for fun — and you wouldn’t have dreamt of doing that yesterday, right? Don’t do it too much, but you can troll ’em a bit on in the Internet, like I do.
I mean, if joining NATO isn’t a pleasure, why bother?
Ricochet, you’re all willing to go to war for Montenegro, right? Of course you are. Someone so much as lobs a spitball in our buddy Montenegro’s direction, we’ll treat ’em to all three underfunded legs of our triad. Goes without saying. As Camus supposedly said about friendship — although he didn’t, really, and every proper member of NATO would know that these lines don’t even sound like Camus —
Don’t walk in front of me… I may not follow
Don’t walk behind me… I may not lead
Walk beside me… just be my ally
And it’s an ally you can even find on a map, here:
And hey, here are some more facts about our new ally:
- If you’re really pretentious, you spell it Montenegró.
- “Casino Royale” was set in the Old Town of Budva, which is in Montenegro.
- Montenegro thanked us on Twitter!
- It has great birds. It’s the only place in southern Europe with Pelicans. (They live on Skadar Lake.) There are 2,500 flamingos in Montenegro, and rising.
- Njegoshe, built on the top of a giant rock rising from a lake on the Lovcen mountain, is the highest Mausoleum in the world.
- Some people thought the Russians had already bought Montenegro. Fools! They had no idea what NATO can buy when it goes on a spending spree.
- Even though Montenegro sounds Spanish, be not afeared. They’ve got nothing to do with Mexico. The name comes from what I believe is now a dead Italian-Venetian language. The official language is Montenegrin, an Ijekavian variant of the Shtokavian dialect of Serbo-Croatian, with the neo-shtokavian Eastern-Herzegovinian sub-dialect spoken in the northwest, and the old shtokavian Zeta subdialect spoken in the rest. You’ll get the hang of it quickly: Just remember that the Zeta dialect has a voiceless alveolo-palatal fricative, a voiced alveolo-palatal fricative, and a voiced alveolar affricate, and that both subdialects are characterized by highly specific accents, hyper-ijekavisms, and hyper-iotations. (This could sound intimidating until you realize it’s just like all the Montenegrin vernaculars.) Anyway, in the 2011 census, 42.88% of Montenegrin citizens claimed they spoke Serbian.
- King Nicholas said, “Who isn’t loyal to Montenegrinism, he won’t be accepted by God and people.” So we’re good there, right? (He also said, “Under Murad I the Serbian Tsardom was destroyed, under Murad V it has to rise again. This is my wish and wish of all of us as well as the wish of almighty God.” So we’ll just have to pick and choose our King Nicholasisms with care, now that Montenegro’s in NATO.)
- Upon its independence, Montenegro grabbed the .ME domain name. (Macau already had MO, and Mongolia had MN.) But Montenegro so loved the world, that they gave their only begotten domain name — by operating and marketing it as a gTLD instead of a ccTLD — that whosoever protecteth Montenegro in NATO should not be forced to hack them, or create seriously awkward URL’s like NATOm.e, but have an everlasting ability to create narcissistic domain names that end in .ME.
- According to Wikipedia,
Montenegrins’ long-standing history of fighting for independence is invariably linked with strong traditions of folk epic poetry. A prominent feature of Montenegrin culture is the gusle, a one-stringed instrument played by a story-teller who sings or recites stories of heroes and battles in decasyllabic verse.
- Here’s some traditional Montenegrin music:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-OItrwl14ok
And in case you’re still not sure what you just signed up to fight and die for, here’s a video to help you get used to the idea:
So welcome, Montenegro! All for one and one for all! And don’t be spooked by all the mean things Putin’s saying about you today:
Russia has threatened that Montenegro’s NATO accession would result in “retaliatory actions” after the Balkan state was invited to join the U.S.-led military alliance in its first enlargement since 2009, the RBC news portal reported Wednesday.
The decision, described by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg as “historic,” would see the organization expand further into Eastern Europe, with 12 states which were formerly part of the Eastern bloc having joined already.
“The continued eastward expansion of NATO and NATO’s military infrastructure cannot but result in retaliatory actions … from the Russian side, in terms of ensuring security and supporting the parity of interests,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said, RBC reported.
They’re just bluffing. What are they going to do, test NATO’s commitment in some sneaky Russian way at a time when the alliance has never been stronger? Pshaw.
Ricochet, join me in giving a big Ricochet welcome to our newest ally, Montenegro! I’m sure you’re all sick to death of the non-stop national debate about whether it’s wise to commit ourselves to the defense of Montenegro under these circumstances; and I know our politicians have been burning up the campaign trail with their arguments for and against this enlargement, so it’s understandable that you’ve had enough with the Montenegro-frenzy.
But now’s the time to say: We decided this together, as a democracy. And we’re in it to win.
With Montenegro by our side. Huzzah!
Published in General
Recently reread The Black Mountain where Wolfe bestirs himself to return to his homeland. Maybe there’s a connection between his visit and the move by NATO.
Claire Berlinski, Ed.:
It has not gone quite that far yet. There are after all some further negotiations and then ratification is required by all member states, nonetheless moving forward with the process certainly seems ill-considered and the announcement of the fact ill-timed.
If the purpose of this was to stick a thumb in Russia’s eye there are better methods. This one only seems to give the Russians a new field in which to meddle, a field advantageous to them and risky for ourselves.
OK, being less pretentious -Montenegro was extended a Membership Action Plan in 2008. Specifically, in December of 2008. Gee, I wonder why. It was right after the refusal to offer a MAP to Georgia and the Russian invasion thereof. Now, we may well have dodged a bullet by not giving Georgia and Ukraine a MAP in April 2008 They would have started moving forward on that plan in 2009. At the April 08 meeting, Croatia and Macedonia were offered MAPs, Albania joined in 2009, Croatia later in the year. It makes sense to me to complete the block, but Bosnia-Serbia-Kosovo made it impossible to go that route -Montenegro made perfect sense.
It’s taken them 6 years to get to this point, it’ll be two more years before they actually ascend to the alliance, at which point we have to approve them in the Senate.
There has been plenty of time for debate, and there is still plenty of time for debate.
But Turkey — from a Realpolitik view — really matters. It’s been in NATO since 1952. It fought the Korean War with us. Geographically, Turkey is in the middle of the Balkans, the Caucasus, the Middle East, the Persian Gulf, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean and the Aegean. The Black Sea and Caspian littoral are all that stands between Europe and the most dangerously unstable countries in the world. Turkey is also the energy bridge between the Middle East and Europe. How do you get oil and gas from the landlocked Caspian region to Europe without going through Iran or Russia? There is only one way: through Turkey. A visual review of the region’s history shows that the route invaders take to go from West to East and East to West is, most often, through Anatolia.
Militarily, Turkey has significant intelligence capabilities in Central Asia, the Caspian and the Caucasus, and considerable experience with counter-terrorism and guerilla warfare. It has one of the largest standing armies in the world and the second largest in NATO. It can deploy a sizable Army Corps to conduct joint operations at short notice; it can conduct air assault operations with a lift capability of up to six battalions at a time, day and night. The Incirlik air base was a crucial staging ground for Operations Desert Storm and Enduring Freedom, and houses some 60-70 American B61 nuclear bombs. The Air Force operates one of the largest combat aircraft fleets in NATO. Turkey is also sitting on most of the water in this region, and can shut off the water to countries on its border in a heartbeat. It has done so before, as Syrians no doubt recall. Finally, Turkey controls the Turkish Straits, and could even — plausibly, if unlikely — gain control of the Suez Canal, and thus all maritime traffic in the region.
Politically, Turkey is the only secular quasi-democracy (however imperfect) in the Islamic world—assuming that to be a proper quasi-democracy, you must hold elections at least twice. There is, moreover, a large expatriate population of ethnic Turks and Kurds in Europe and the US. If the Turkish state finds itself with its back against the wall, we would be naïve to assume that it would be no big deal to make enemies of either. So there’s a military logic — an overwhelming one — in trying to make a useful and serious ally out of Turkey, which until recently, has been a devoted and serious ally, and strongly to discourage its authoritarian instincts. And to some extent — not entirely — the loss of Turkey has been through our own insane incompetence.
Montenegro? What is the point of pulling this country — almost more a principality — into a superpower conflict? What did they do to earn this or deserve it? What relationship do we have with it? Why is this in our interests, unless we’re getting very serious about pushing Russia back — which we are not, as far as I can tell?
By itself, this doesn’t mean much. Germany (the FRG part, anyway) joined NATO after a much shorter interval since we bombed them senseless.
The real distinction is that the FRG had the economic and military strength to lend serious weight to a USSR-led Warsaw Pact, and it was a useful barrier to a German reunification under Soviet domination that was a real threat at the time. Italy also joined NATO at roughly the same time, after they’d been cowed into leaving the war (and grown tired of NAZI…leadership). Italy’s value was solely political; they haven’t had a serious military capability since the fall of Rome.
Montenegro’s contribution–in that ideal world to which I alluded above–also is purely political, as you among others have noted. And in the hands of an intelligent administration that still was connected with reality, that political value would have material value.
In a bit over a year, the necessary underlying conditions may obtain.
Eric Hines
Why would you be consulted? Why would congress be consulted? This is foreign affair issue which under a Democratic President such as Obama is his decision and his decision only. Least that seems to be the case now. The Iranian deal proves that.
But I doubt that the Obama Administration is in on this. Most likely will stop it from happening. To them it will smell of empire. Their style is more for apologizing about made up history and giving out borrowed money.
Four questions:
Which neighbor is most likely to invade Montenegro?
Do we want an air or naval base there?
Will rich Russians sell their vacation mansions in Montenegro now?
For how much?
I think this is a factor of the current POTUS. With BHO I would not support defending England or Canada. He would screw it up and get our people killed for no reason without accomplishing the goal. My position will be the same when HRC get to be POTUS. Benghazi showed BHO and HRC true selves. They are unworthy to lead our people and I will fight every effort they attempt to do so. I have already had friends and friends’ kids die on their watch. I will not let them kill more if I have any say in the mater.
I imagine the meeting went something like this.
That’s what I was wondering.
If I don’t like it, I have plenty of time to contact my senators. (Judging by past history they won’t pay much attention… but that’s not the fault of the democratic process; it just so happens that I was narrowly in the minority in the last election.)
The global Jihad stalls.
Croatia sent a proportionally huge force to Afghanistan. It was my privilege to work with their advance and later HQ guys to establish their presence in our camp. They were co-located with us rather than living on the European side of the base in order to integrate better, as they were taking over a mission from one of the State guards. They were formally partnered with (I think) the 33rd something of the Ohio National Guard (but I could be entirely wrong), for the actual mission, while my crew worked with the Croatians on infrastructure and planning, three guys in particular.
Those guys were there to fight. They were a great group. Their commanding officer had been in the military long enough that they called him “Old Komsomol” or similar (been a while), as he had been a good communist in the old days. They worked babies in the crowd like good old boy politicians; photographs, hugs and kisses, humanitarian aid. They worked over bad guys like straw target dummies. There was never too much hot lead for a bad guy — keep shooting just to be certain.
The folks at my level had grown up and matured with guns and war and horror. Fiercely Catholic, they love good with their hearts and hate evil with their bowels. It was an honor to learn of Croatia from these fine men. If I ever go to Europe of my own volition, Zagreb is a must, and everything else will be optional.
Claire,
I cannot quote you since I do not have unlimited space to type. I will put my response here:
I believe in the Strong Horse. We have been a weak horse for some time. Russia and China are filling the space we leave behind. If drawing our line of control a little closer to Russia helps us move back to being strong, I am all for it.
I don’t care people of Montenegro, anymore than I care about the people of Turkey. What I do care about is pushing back against Russia. We should have done more when they invaded Georgia and the Ukraine. Russia needs to be contained and cannot be allowed to return to empire.
I don’t have to like what we have to do. I would rather, at heart, just withdraw from the world, let the barbarians do their own thing in their own mess. Why should I care about Turkey, or Europe? I have too, because the oceans no longer protect us. I have too because the barbarians keep attacking us. Better to fight there than here.
I’m particular. I’m perfectly willing to go to war slightly west to protect the magnificent Old Town in Dubrovnik.