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News from the Franken Front
On October 1, US Senate candidate Mike McFadden appears on widely listened to Ricochet podcast The Hinderaker-Ward Experience. And now, breaking news from one week later:
A new SurveyUSA/KSTP poll finds that Democratic U.S. Sen. Al Franken had an 18 percentage point advantage over Republican Mike McFadden, a larger lead than any previous poll.
According to the poll, 55 percent of people said they would vote for Franken and 37 said they would vote for McFadden. The poll, conducted Sept. 30-Oct. 2, surveyed 577 likely voters and had a 4.1 percentage point plus or minus margin of error.
It found that Franken’s lead doubled from nine percent in the pollster’s September survey.
Well, for the record, I thought his appearance went well.
If, all things being equal, the simplest explanation is also the most likely explanation, maybe it’s not our fault.
Minnesota is a notoriously difficult state to poll. That’s a charitable way of saying that pre-election media polls have routinely published misleading results, typically underestimating GOP performance.
Most recently, the Minnesota Public Radio/University of Minnesota final pre-election poll of the 2012 Minnesota Governor’s race wildly distorted the reality of the eventual result. At least they had the decency to go out of business shortly thereafter.
No such luck with the Star Tribune MN Poll. Despite a three decade long run of periodic embarrassingly bad blown calls and distorted margins, they’re still at it (although changing polling practices and vendors along the way).
I never have heard a discouraging word about the SurveyUSA/KSTP poll before, so maybe they have it right. But you can see where an experienced connoisseur of Minnesota political polls might be a bit skeptical. I don’t doubt that McFadden may be trailing. But by that much, against Al Franken?
We’ll have to mark this media poll down for special scrutiny come the morning of November 5. It’s either a prescient harbinger of a wholly unexpected Democrat party rout in the middle of what could be a Republican surge elsewhere, or it’s just the same old song all over again.
Time will tell. It’s the integrity of this poll vs. the viability of the Hinderaker-Ward Experience as a platform for promoting political candidates. Only one of us gets out of election night alive!
Published in General
Do those polls include all the extra votes that are stored in the trunk of somone’s car?
How could they? You can’t tell how many there are until after the election.
I should rephrase that. You can’t tell how many are needed until after the election.
Or it could be that Minnesota really is that hopeless, and deserves induction into the American Sovereigns Hall of Shame next to Illinois, New York, and California. It would be fitting retribution for the Twins’ theft of the 1987 World Series.
It could be that they deserve Franken. But do the rest of us?
Wikipedia didn’t mention anything about theft in its report on the 87 series. Do you live in St. Louis?
Perhaps the pollsters are hoping to discourage MN republicans from voting.
Randy, let’s just say that the maintenance guy in charge of the Metrodome’s climate control system should have been the MVP of that series.
My plan has been to get out of this state when I reach retirement age. I don’t know if I can take it for that long. I think Tennessee may be the answer.
I generally ignore polls (if by ignore I mean bookmarking the NH races on RCP and checking them frequently), rather I note ad buys on local tv. Pray tell Brian, is Franken mounting an ad defense of any magnitude?
I fear that MN is happily and ignorantly following CA and NY down the path of oblivion. The relentless class warfare the Dems are waging is having an effect as the younger generation cares about nothing as much as making sure everything is “fair”, which includes sticking it to anyone who makes over $150k.
I restructured my business this year to avoid the punitive tax increase the Dems ramroded through the legislature. When I retire I will make sure to spend less than 6 months a year here so I can stop paying the crazy high taxes MN levies.
Minnesotans should know better than to elect clowns like Franken and Dayton. For shame!
I’m afraid that I can, without any difficulty, believe that the poll is fairly correct. This state, or at least the population centers of Mpls. and St. Paul, vote reflexively DFL. I agree with Frozen Chosen: the mantra of the Democrats — that the Republicans are for the rich, while they are for the ordinary guy — has been absorbed into the bloodstream, permeated the cell walls throughout the body, and is exhaled through the pores. It’s not so much that Minnesotans are enamored of Franken — most probably couldn’t tell you how he’s voted on anything — but that the idea of voting for a Republican is so foreign. Of course we can thank our marvelous school system as well…..
Cards fans have a hard time of getting over series losses. 29 years later and we still hear about how KC stole the 1985 series.
It appears to me that Franken has been pretty careful to stay quiet and out of headlines, uttering only boilerplate Dem talking points. If he’s not rocking a boat, blue staters won’t be motivated to replace him.
Al Franken shouldn’t be outpolling a dead cat. Minnesotans ought to ashamed of themselves.
When you have a major city in your state that will vote 90% for anyone with a D after their name, that is a huge hurdle to overcome. Here in NY most people couldn’t tell you the names of the Republican candidates in the last senate and gubernatorial elections. Wouldn’t even think of voting for them no matter how bad the D is.
When you have a major city in your state that will vote 90% for anyone with a D after their name, that is a huge hurdle to overcome. Here in NY most people could D is.n’t tell you the names of the Republican candidates in the last senate and gubernatorial elections. Wouldn’t even think of voting for them no matter how bad the D is.
I’m in Northern California and I have a hard time remembering who recent GOP senate and gubernatorial candidates were. I just know they have no shot but would be less awful than the Ds, so I check the R box and put the ballot in the tras…. ballot box.
PEOPLE, if your state HAS to elect an obnoxious Meat Puppet to public office, please limit yourselves to the Governorship of your state. DO NOT inflict him on the rest of the nation.
This is where I’d like to make fun of Minnesota, but I live in Vermont, and, well, we’ve got Bernie.
Yup.