Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Bachmann, Schmachmann!
First, Happy 4th to my friend Peter who I greatly respect. But on this, we disagree. Come to think of it, happy 4th to everyone.
Second, a plug for my new “Murphy’s Law” column in TIME. Topic is Michele Bachmann’s impact n the GOP Race. Please don’t send me any angry letters or cardboard Uncle Sam hats. Send them to Rob Long.
My view is this: I think she will have an impact on the race, but I think her odds are being nominated are ziltch, as I told Matt a few months ago. I think her support will crumble with time in the spotlight, and deservedly so. I think her appeal is limited to one part of the primary; real estate Rick Perry may well challenge her for. Finally, I think she would lose a general election in a landslide. Conservatives need to remember that until the country changes what it thinks, nominating a candidate that pleases only conservatives (and only one part of the conservative electorate at that; remember her insane Kucinich vote on Libya?) is always going to be a losing plan. Why ape the Democrats circa 1972 and find a George McGovern?
Finally, if Rush – to his credit a Ricochet reader – wants to tee off again, I want the record to state that I don’t live in DC and care less about cocktail parties there. In fact, the last time I had dinner in a four-star restaurant in Georgetown, it was with Rush Limbaugh! (Some years ago; it was a fun dinner.)
Published in General
[This comment has been removed by an editor]
Oops- I thought I remembered 58%, I’m wrong.
For the record, Mike Murphy predicted to Dennis Miller that Obama would win the Dem nomination almost a year before he did- when everyone was convinced that Hillary had it locked- and that he was likely to win the general.
I won’t say anything about the Meg Whitman race.
“Her latest mix-up, confusing the birthplace of beloved American icon John Wayne with that of serial killer John Wayne Gacy, hints that Michele’s next moves on the national stage may receive more than a few boos and flying vegetables from the voting public” -Mike Murphy
Seriously Mike, do you really think you can write sentences like this, advancing a very negative and false impression on TIME magazine readers, and expect people not to question your motives?
I’m swallowing anyone’s line. Call it as I see it. Simple as that.
Why do some conservatives judge all commentary as being good if it simply follows the knee-jerk anti-MSM line? Why the assumption that all MSM journalism is part of some big lib conspiracy. Silly to think that way. Reality is more complicated than that, one “line” versus another “line.” Argument and opinion should not be based on a bunker mentality. ·Jun 30 at 12:16pm
Because in my lifetime, I have NEVER seen a Dem speech mistake covered at all, let alone with the same venom used whenever a conservative politician has the unmitigated gall to actually make a speaking mistake or slur a word. The 1st time a Biden, Pelosi, Obama, etc gaffe is front page news and cause for derision on any MSM outlet I will change my thinking. Until then, I’ll keep the wagons circled, thank you!
Bush got 58% of the white vote in 2004.
Is it unrealistic to think the GOP nominee could get 60% this time around? White independents (the ones I know personally) don’t care about ideology. They vote how they feel that week. In this economy, they’ll be voting against the incumbent.
And how much of this demographic shift is accounted for by California and Texas? Are whites not going to decide Ohio in 2012?
I heartily agree, and I’m not posing a conspiracy theory. In Jon Stewart recent-ish interview with Chris Wallace he pointed out that the media’s bias is far more inclined toward sensationalism and laziness than leftist ideology, which I find to be consistently true.
The problem is, that you are using Bachman’s alleged propensity towards gaffe’s as part of your reasoning for doubting her. But that reasoning is less potent if a gaffe about mistaking the birth place of a national hero with that of serial killer (your example) is provably false. And with only a simple check of Wikipedia (Gacy was born in Chicago).
But even you are continuing the exaggeration of a mistake.
I know reality is more complicated, which is why I think the truth is so necessary. It serves as all-too-rare guidepost on our way through life.
Ok, but that’s like me saying I picked the Patriots over the Rams in 2002…without mentioning that I also missed the next 9 Super Bowl picks in a row. Or without mentioning that I coached a 1-15 team.
IOW, what’s his claim on credibility in making these kinds of predictions and issuing this kind of analysis?
Not a falsehood she was wrong about JW; he never lived there. JW Gacy moved there in 1967, started committed crimes and was arrested. ·Jun 30 at 12:20pm
Operative word, Mike. Birthplace. “confusing the birthplace”
Since Gacy wasn’t born there, she didn’t confuse the birthplace, see?
Without that falsehood your whole sentance falls apart.
Birthplace is error. Missed it in copy review. You are right on that. My fault. But gist is correct. Gacy had a much stronger connection, albeit horrifying, to Waterloo than JW. Sentence should be confused hometown of beloved American Icon John Wayne with actual Waterloo resident, serial killer John Wayne Gacy. etc. Tried to work in the Concord and Lexington whopper for a few months ago but there wasn’t room in column.
Kiwikit,
I was ordered to write for TIME by my overlords at the KGB.
why do gaffes only count against Republicans? Obama/Biden made a boatload in 2008 and thereafter (57 states! speaking Austrian! etc.), and nobody thinks they matter.
Mike, if Bachman is headed for a melt down, who do you see making it to the big show for Republicans?
I’m fascinated to see so many Bachmann experts here, based on watching her on TV since September of 2008.
Franco, believe what you choose to believe. But don’t try to kid me that you are not cherry-picking Bachmann images yourself. Live in Minnesota for a few years- I’ve been watching her up close for at least 12. I like her fine- I also do not drink the bathwater of national electability. She isn’t even electable state-wide here.
And ctruppi, don’t you understand that your circle-the-wagons point supports Murphy’s position? If the legacy media echo chamber largely controls the narrative that is seen by the mushy middle that actually decides elections, and ignores Obama gaffes while playing up conservative problems, it is all the more important to nominate someone on our side who thinks before speaking, and even stops speaking occasionally.
That is not Michele Bachmann, for all of her other strong characteristics.
Who else had a real strong connection to Waterloo ? (other than Napoleon who didn’t live there at all) I mean he has a similar name. John is common Wayne is common by itself and possibly an homage to the movie star, so there is no confusion at all. Confusion implies that She or her staff changed the places of these two particular men somehow.
Maybe Bachmann was confusing John Wayne with Wayne Newton who once went through the town on his way to Vegas. What a ditz!
Mike, I agree with you, but I do understand why you catch a lot of flak. People on this site and conservatives in general (Rush especially) realize we have to engage in a debate and win. Yes, that means convincing people and having them change their minds. We can’t just roll over and let the other side choose our nominees. Perhaps Bachmann simply moves the debate to the right and then loses? I say go for it.
The beltway comment is meant to describe a mindset, not an accurate description of geography. I’ve heard you on Ricochet podcasts and seen you on Meet The Press. You can condescend toward conservatives with the best of ’em.
Michael,
I think Biden got a lot of media ridicule. I think Obama got soft treatment.
Beasely,
I think Mitt is a weak front-runner. I think Pawlenty could win, but he is running aground and out of money in IA, so he may not make it to later in year when real early state voters tune in. But if he can get something going in IA, and there is time, and fix his $$ trouble, he has a shot. So does Huntsman, but he too faces many hurdles. I think Perry is a longs-hot, and I’m not sure he’s going to run. Those the are most likely nominees in my view. It is early though, lots can happen.
IOW, what’s his claim on credibility in making these kinds of predictions and issuing this kind of analysis? ·Jun 30 at 12:28pm
My point is this – without a demonstrable record of sustained success at political analysis and predictions, Mr. Murphy is Norv Turner circa 2007.
Norv Turner coached the Redskins to a 49-59 record over 7 seasons and coached the Raiders to a 9-23 record over 2 seasons.
And then in 2007 he was hired as head coach of the Chargers! He had a cumulative head coaching record of 58-82…and then was hired to lead another team (inheriting a 14-2 team and yet not reaching the SB in any of his 4 subsequent years as head coach).
If Mr. Murphy’s words are worth considering, I’d like to know why. Is he Norv Turner, or is he Bill Belichick?
Back to Mikes original point, if demographics are going to be overwhelming and an white woman from the Midwest can’t secure the nomination, who can? The black Tea Party candidate? Maybe one of the Mormon guys? Texan governors have succeeded in the past.
Mike Murphy: Gaffes count. Rules of the Game. ·Jun 30 at 12:02pm
But I thought gaffes count? If gaffes count, then you don’t get to use the “but gist is correct” get-out-of-jail-free card, do you? Doesn’t that gaffe count against your credibility?
I think Biden got a lot of media ridicule. I think Obama got soft treatment.
Beasely,
I think Mitt is a weak front-runner. I think Pawlenty could win, but he is running aground and out of money in IA, so he may not make it to later in year when real early state voters tune in. But if he can get something going in IA, and there is time, and fix his $$ trouble, he has a shot. So does Huntsman, but he too faces many hurdles. I think Perry is a longs-hot, and I’m not sure he’s going to run. Those the are most likely nominees in my view. It is early though, lots can happen. ·Jun 30 at 12:43pm
Edited on Jun 30 at 12:44 pm
Mike, my point is that those gaffes did NOT count against them–they won! So my question to you still is, why do gaffes only count when committed by Republicans?
I think Mike Murphy is right.
Let’s take it as a given that the media is going to attempt to destroy any Republican candidate. This is going to be a brutal election. The stakes are incredibly high. Union money is going to flow like water into every partisan outlet it can find. Partisans in the media will take the gloves off, even if it means damaging their reputations for fairness.
So let’s just assume that Republicans will be savaged in the traditional press for any tiny mistake they utter, and then those ‘gaffes’ will be repeated ad nauseum by the liberal court jesters like John Stewart and Steven Colbert until they become conventional wisdom that ‘everyone knows’.
Given that kind of environment, how do Republicans defend themselves? By electing people with gravitas who can’t be slimed as stupid or uneducated because their records show it to be demonstrably false. You also protect yourself by electing candidates who have discipline – who know how to stay on message, to refrain from off-the-cuff comments about things they think they know but haven’t checked.
Bachmann is great in many ways, but she is undisciplined and very risky.
The Lexington and Concord gaffe was pretty minor. I’m sure if Murphy’s Meg Whitman had made that mistake he’d be saying of anyone trying to make hay of it “Come on, don’t be ridiculous”.
Minor error. Gist was right. If you think I have no credibility, don’t read me. Plus, I’m not — thank God — running for President.
But you are not troubled by Lexington or Concord? Or the fact she has done nothing in Congress but turnover her staff a lot? Don’t confuse a few easy Tea Party applause lines with having the skill and experience to be President of the United States.
Mike,
I think your right about Mitt. I know too many conservatives that see his face as interchangeable with those of Bob Dole, John McCain and John Kerry. I think elect-ability as a character trait feels like more of the same and the same is disappointing.
I think that’s why Bachman has made it as far as she has. She is right on the issues more often than Mitt or Huntsman and is more interesting than Pawlenty. I think conservatives wake up in the middle of the night to nightmares of a Pawlenty-Obama debate that ends with Obama being charming and Pawlenty afraid to land a punch. I think that if Bachman can tighten up her campaign, she has a chance. I don’t think independents are going to bail on a president promising to pay whatever price (on credit) to ease their woes for someone who can’t paint a VIVID picture of future prosperity, not just austerity.
Gotta sign off now. But Franco old pal, I strongly suggest you get another political dream to hang your happiness on. You will be disappointed by Bachmann for President. It shall not end well. Happy 4th all!
That is not Michele Bachmann, for all of her other strong characteristics. ·Jun 30 at 12:40pm
Duane, I certainly never said that I support Bachmann. I was simply replying to Mike’s general question “why do conservatives always, blah, blah, blah”. Being amongst generally like-minded friends here on Ricochet, I thought I’d answer honestly (and vent a little to boot).
As far as I’m concerned, I feel that the WFB philosophy of running the most right candidate who can actually win, should be our rallying cry. Whether or not that’s Bachmann is still up in the air.
Again and again these guys take what the Tea Party gave the GOP completely for granted and complain that a couple seats were lost in the fray. They claim we have common ground, but that is completely irrelevant here because the issues are pivoting around where we disagree. As you have laid out, their fantasies are based on false assumptions.
And still no defense or take-back of this:
“Now we have to negotiate the budget and taxes with Harry Reid instead of Mitch McConnell.”
Murphy makes these outrageous claims and runs away. This isn’t Meet the Press, or TIME where he won’t be challenged from the right.
Yikes, was this the post for which kiwikit was edited? If so, am a bit dismayed with the editors for deleting personal observations (however hostile), yet allowing members to use the word s**k.
Personal attacks may create some discomfort, but 4-letter words, on the other hand, are just plain tacky.
Elizabeth, honey,
There are worse things in life than occasional tackiness. Unkindness is one of them.
The CoC handles this just fine, in my opinion.
I’ve put my thoughts together on the member feed. Please check it out. Thanks!
And the TEA Party blew three seats that were absolutely winnable in organizing the Senate.
Duane,
The TEA Party also won several seats that were seen as completely unwinnable. In addition the managed to stiffen the spines of both McConnell and Boehner. We have to be prepare to lose some seats if we want to get the Repubs back to being a limited government party rather than the other big government party. In that regard Castle is an excellent object lesson. As for Bachmann, she is saying the right things right now. I don’t know if she is ultimately the right woman for the job but she is much better than Huntsman, Romney, and TPaw at least at the moment.