Conor, you are totally correct.

The new avatar is totally self deprecation.  A joke.

BTW, I borrowed it from Rob Long...

I'm learning from the posts today that all it takes is $3.58 a month and you guys are all ready to run the national political strategy for the GOP.  Talk about credentials...  Also love the "Swing voters are all unprincipled lemmings" bit.  Try that message out... and see how it pays off in November.

Meanwhile, we find out that Bachmann cannot figure out how to pronounce "Chutzpah"... Video:http://t.co/2RtGLRU

Maybe she can build a time machine and go back to Lexington NH and founding father and anti-slavery crusader John Quincy Adams can explain it all to her.

I have been warned?  I'm howling over that one.  Listen, there are far, far too few GOP primary voters to win a general election.  But too many in the party now thing the whole election is simply a big GOP primary.  I hope we don't have to lose the House, Senate and WH to learn this, but...

Luntz focus groups are a joke.  Voodoo.  Real/serious focus groups are not done in front of camera on TV.  Like testing your stereo under-water.  It's just a chimp act for cable TV and nothing more.

The Rocky button is indeed a gag; thought I'd see how many Rico-cadets have a sense of humor.  So far, results are mixed, but I'm hopeful.

Alas, general election is not in the vocabulary.  Candidates like Bachmann make the mistake of assuming a majority of voters agree with them because most everybody they know in their bubble agrees with them.  So turning up volume = victory.  This is just O'Donnell of Delaware 2.0.  Or Angle of NV.  Luckily though, she won't get the nomination so the whole thing is only a mildly interesting science experiment.  Ironically, her campaign actually will most likely wind up helping Romney and the GOP establishment.

Another kerfuffle!  A few final thoughts.

First, Jeez, don't be so thin-skinned. I didn't call anybody a fascist; I criticized the idea of lockstep dogma.

Second, Caddell. Great consultant in the 70's. Now goes on Fox to tell wingers what they want to hear. That's not honest analysis. I call it as I see it.  You should see the angry emails I get from the Left.

Third, the questioning of my motives and the name-calling is silly. I started at NCPAC in 1981. I've worked for conservatives in real, front-line trench elections for 28 years. Won most of 'em.  But yes, Meg lost.

Finally, Bachmann.  I have two objections.  One, I think she would not only lose, but give the Congress back to Pelosi.  Second, she not qualified to be the POTUS.  She has made no mark in Congress or in MN.  She's a management disaster in her office.  She takes the Kuncinich line on foreign policy. Her debt and TARP positions are foolish. She wants to seize Rob Long's porn collection.  And she can't find Concord on a map.  There are better conservatives running who can win.

Glad people are listening.

Strikes me as strange how insecure so many of these comments are.  Not all, but many.  The point being to instantly condemn any voice that disagrees with the dogma.  Refusal to accept any argument, regardless of factual merits.  Then demonize the proponent of the argument as have sinister motives.  Really want to live in a bland bubble where everyone agrees with you and the only facts that are to be believed are those that support your point of view... even when they may not even be prove-able facts at all, just shouted opinions?  Seems silly to me.  And a bit cowardly.

Obsessions with ideological purity is the sport of Communists, Fascists, and Salem witch trials... not Conservatives.  Ultimately, it is cowardly.

Nah, I'm going long BRK.  It's a buy.  Need railroads to move goods to and from ports to China.  Plus insurance.

Exactly.  It's just lying voodoo I make up to support the Liberal conspiracy to undermine the one and only source of Truth, Dr. Rush Limbaugh.

One final word on all this, then I'm off on vacation.  My point is that the history of politics in the last five decades does give insight into who can and cannot win national elections.  During the last election, we had a fun rumpus on this site about Christine "The Broom" O'Donnell in DE.  My point was that when the primary base gets excited and elects a candidate all about their dogma and not the bigger electorate, we lose.  See: McGovern, George.  Posts poured in saying why I was wrong, why consultants who do this professionally are dumb, why we win by losing, why we are in a new era of politics with new rules.  Then she lost big.  We also made the same mistake in Nevada and some would say CO.  Now we have to negotiate the budget and taxes with Harry Reid instead of Mitch McConnell. That is a conservative fiasco, not a victory.  Now, here we are again. I might be wrong.  Been wrong before.  But I doubt it on this one. Michele Bachmann is a stone cold loser in a general election.  Prob in primary too.  Happy 4th!

That's insane re: DE.  Castle would have won.  O'Donnell was obviously going to lose, which she did.  That was point I tried to make back then on Ricochet.

Per my record, I'm one of the most successful GOP media consultants in the country.  At the Senate/Gov level I have run lots of winning campaigns for candidates like  John Engler, Spence Abraham, Jeb Bush, Lamar Alexander, Jeff Sessions, Mitt Romney, Christie Whitman, Steve Symms, Dirk Kempthorne, Terry Brandstad, Slade Gorton, Arnold Schwarzenegger.  Also did Mike Harris' campaigns in Ontario; first Conservative Premier to win two back to back terms in 40 years.

I've done losing campaigns for Ollie North, Meg Whitman, Doug Gross, Mack Mattingly and Spence Abraham.

Humza I like to challenge dogma, especially when it is so disconnected to reality.

Duane, exactly.

Tommy, Christie agreed with me re Tea Party O'Donnell in DE. Our last ricochet kerfuffle.

EJ, You miss the point of the data. Time for a stats refresher course. The Pew numbers show the Sunday show audience is very close to the national mean; it looks like America. Doesn't tilt left or right. Check the chart. Argument that it more lib than USA average is flat wrong. Maddow is tilt Lib, Rush is tilt right. Both only talking to outliers who already agree with them.

Gotta sign off now.  But Franco old pal, I strongly suggest you get another political  dream to hang your happiness on.  You will be disappointed by Bachmann for President.  It shall not end well.  Happy 4th all!