Denying Open, In-Your-Face Miracles

 

I have long understood that people only see what they want to see. Open miracles are not what people want to see – and so they ignore them.

Iran attacked with a range of weapons, all meant to overwhelm Israeli defenses. 120 long range ballistic missiles. These suckers leave the atmosphere, and drop straight down with incredible speed and lethal force. In the history of the world, nobody has ever intercepted such an attack.  Iran had every reason to think their missiles would succeed. And these missiles, carrying dozens of tons of explosive warheads, were absolutely designed to destroy their targets.

In the Torah, Avraham defeats vastly superior forces – and everyone (save for one man) gives him the credit, and ignores the miraculous component, the involvement of the Creator. The human refusal to see a miracle leads G-d to the Covenant Between the Parts, promising a much bigger – unavoidably grander – Exodus, so the world could not deny the existence of G-d. G-d went bigger.

Here we are, with the evidence right in front of us.  On Saturday afternoon, we knew war had been launched, because the much smaller drones were on their way. We knew Hezbollah would unleash everything it had for a simultaneous attack, increasing the odds of the attack succeeding.  We knew it was going to be bad – we just were not sure how bad. We were praying for a miracle.

And we got one.

People should not think that because the attack was foiled, the Iranians meant to fail “all along.” The very first direct attack from Iran on Israel was not designed to fail; Iranians do not play to lose. Their own media was recycling old forest fire videos to claim the attacks succeeded: they desperately meant to succeed.

I am giving credit where due: to the miraculous Arrow system: a perfect combination of good creative energies and efforts, kissed by deliverance from On High. This Passover (which starts in a week), the theme of divine salvation is going to ring out from Jewish homes the world over.

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  1. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Amen. We in my extended prayer community, which includes Messianic Jews, were praying for Israel late Saturday night and early Sunday morning. Praise and thanks to the Lord.

    • #1
  2. JosephCox Coolidge
    JosephCox
    @JosephCox

    Amen. I think Hezbollah’s cue was the removal of the IDF post on Har Dov. Didn’t happen.

    • #2
  3. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    JosephCox (View Comment):

    Amen. I think Hezbollah’s cue was the removal of the IDF post on Har Dov. Didn’t happen.

    That’s the first thing I’ve read that makes sense. It’s exactly what they did October 7. This could have been horrifying.

    I also think prayers helped.

    And the extremely talented people striking down the missiles.

    When video games first became popular and people were upset with teenagers who were playing them a lot, my husband said, “Maybe these hand-eye coordination skills are something they will need. We can’t see the future. Only God can. I think we should leave them alone.” That’s all I could think of Saturday night.

    This attack was meant to be devastating.

    God bless everyone, and Thank You, God.

    • #3
  4. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    By the way, Iran announced it was going to attack because they wanted to show the world that they did not even need the element of surprise: long range ballistic missiles are unstoppable the world over, after all.

    To get maximum PR value, they wanted the buildup and the show. Iran understands that the world loves a great narrative. 

    Iran’s leaders are left with egg on their face. All their allies are reconsidering, as well they should. And Israel has gained enormous support from UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia… everyone who would rather not be hit by those same missiles, and who would love the same defensive umbrella.

     

    • #4
  5. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    iWe (View Comment):

    Iran’s leaders are left with egg on their face. All their allies are reconsidering, as well they should. And Israel has gained enormous support from UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia… everyone who would rather not be hit by those same missiles, and who would love the same defensive umbrella.

    It would be highly amusing if Israel gets business from those three nations (UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia) installing similar systems.  It is also harder to work up a killing rage against those who are protecting you.

    • #5
  6. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    National Review:

    The Iron Dome system is consistently described as “ninety percent effective” — which means about 10 percent of missiles could get through and hit their targets. Most of Iran’s ballistic missiles are about the size of a tractor-trailer. Some of their cruise missiles are seven meters longMost of the Iranian drones are the size of a person. If any one of them, loaded up with explosives, landed in a populated area, you would have an enormous number of casualties.

    • #6
  7. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Iran’s leaders are left with egg on their face. All their allies are reconsidering, as well they should. And Israel has gained enormous support from UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia… everyone who would rather not be hit by those same missiles, and who would love the same defensive umbrella.

    It would be highly amusing if Israel gets business from those three nations (UAE, Jordan, Saudi Arabia) installing similar systems.

    I have no doubt that all of those states will be buying Iron Domes of their own, if Iran’s government survives this failure. 

    It is also harder to work up a killing rage against those who are protecting you.

    Especially because there is no doubt that Israel designed in “kill switch” capability to turn off such systems remotely. Change the incentives, change the outcomes.

     

    • #7
  8. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Here is one of those 120 ballistic missiles.

    • #8
  9. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    iWe (View Comment):

    Here is one of those 120 ballistic missiles.

    The British took cannon captured during the Crimean War, melted them down and used the brass to mold Victoria Cross medals.  Israel should consider something similar: taking the debris from the shot down Iranian weapons, melt them down and use them as awards for the AAA units and crews.

    • #9
  10. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Saturday night all the civilians in Israel went into their bomb shelters, with all their family, and, in fear, waited.

    In the Exodus, much the same happens: the people are commanded to get in their houses, and stay there, while the Destroyer was out and about. The parallels are extremely strong.

    • #10
  11. Caryn Thatcher
    Caryn
    @Caryn

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Here is one of those 120 ballistic missiles.

    The British took cannon captured during the Crimean War, melted them down and used the brass to mold Victoria Cross medals. Israel should consider something similar: taking the debris from the shot down Iranian weapons, melt them down and use them as awards for the AAA units and crews.

    That’s already a thing: rockets into roses.

    • #11
  12. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    It is also harder to work up a killing rage against those who are protecting you.

    Human nature is still human nature. I would place no bets.

    • #12
  13. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    Arahant (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):
    It is also harder to work up a killing rage against those who are protecting you.

    Human nature is still human nature. I would place no bets.

    Which is why I said harder, not impossible.

    • #13
  14. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Here is one of those 120 ballistic missiles.

    The British took cannon captured during the Crimean War, melted them down and used the brass to mold Victoria Cross medals. Israel should consider something similar: taking the debris from the shot down Iranian weapons, melt them down and use them as awards for the AAA units and crews.

    Isn’t there a company that already does something like that? “Iron Dome Creations” or something similar? I recall seeing ads for such things, in any case.

    • #14
  15. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    Caryn (View Comment):

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    iWe (View Comment):

    Here is one of those 120 ballistic missiles.

    The British took cannon captured during the Crimean War, melted them down and used the brass to mold Victoria Cross medals. Israel should consider something similar: taking the debris from the shot down Iranian weapons, melt them down and use them as awards for the AAA units and crews.

    That’s already a thing: rockets into roses.

    Yup. Those are the ads.

    • #15
  16. Freeven Member
    Freeven
    @Freeven

    iWe:

    Iran attacked with a range of weapons, all meant to overwhelm Israeli defenses. 120 long range ballistic missiles. These suckers leave the atmosphere, and drop straight down with incredible speed and lethal force. In the history of the world, nobody has ever intercepted such an attack.  Iran had every reason to think their missiles would succeed. And these missiles, carrying dozens of tons of explosive warheads, were absolutely designed to destroy their targets.

    Here we are, with the evidence right in front of us.  On Saturday afternoon, we knew war had been launched, because the much smaller drones were on their way. We knew Hezbollah would unleash everything it had for a simultaneous attack, increasing the odds of the attack succeeding.  We knew it was going to be bad – we just were not sure how bad. We were praying for a miracle.

    I was just watching Ben Shapiro. He put up a map showing where the various missiles and drones were launched from. The vast majority of them would have been in the air for about half an hour, quite a lot of time to detect and target. Noticeably absent were anything coming from Hezbollah just across Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah reportedly has over 40 thousand short ranged missiles aimed at Israel, missiles that would take only a few minutes from launch to strike, yet they didn’t launch them. I find that curious.

    • #16
  17. JosephCox Coolidge
    JosephCox
    @JosephCox

    Freeven (View Comment):
    Noticeably absent were anything coming from Hezbollah just across Israel’s northern border. Hezbollah reportedly has over 40 thousand short ranged missiles aimed at Israel, missiles that would take only a few minutes from launch to strike, yet they didn’t launch them. I find that curious.

    I believe Hezbollah’s cue was the removal of Har Dov, an oversight position for the IDF. If the army were relatively blinded by the removal of Har Dov (as it was on Oct 7th outside Gaza) then a mass attack and infiltration would have followed.

    But Hezbollah isn’t stupid. If they had attacked in force then Israel would have responded. And given the stakes in the moment, the result would have been the erasure of South Lebanon and the elimination of Hezbollah as a near-term fighting force. Unlike 2006, the gloves would have been entirely off – again, given the circumstances.

    Hezbollah may be worshipped as the resistance, but there are limits to what they can do without being confident in some sort of victory and Iran didn’t provide that confidence. This is the same reason they left Hamas out to dry. By the time it was clear how much success Hamas had had, the IDF had reinforced the north and prevented a full second front. And then, within hours, Hamas was being rolled back in the South.

    • #17
  18. JosephCox Coolidge
    JosephCox
    @JosephCox

    Freeven (View Comment):
    Hezbollah reportedly has over 40 thousand short ranged missiles aimed at Israel

    These stockpiles are not quite what they seem (they are also closer to 130,000). Hezbollah has stocked up on very short-range heavy missiles. They represent a very significant part of the stockpile. They were intended to wreck complete devastation on Northern Israeli communities. But the communities within range have all been internally displaced ever since Oct 7th. There are virtually no people – aside from soldiers – near the border.

    The longer range rockets have better known positions and could be somewhat targeted. A lot of effort has gone into mapping positions in what is a far less dense environment than that of Gaza.

    • #18
  19. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    iWe (View Comment):

    By the way, Iran announced it was going to attack because they wanted to show the world that they did not even need the element of surprise: long range ballistic missiles are unstoppable the world over, after all.

    To get maximum PR value, they wanted the buildup and the show. Iran understands that the world loves a great narrative.

    An intriguing new theory which I had not considered!

     

    • #19
  20. Barfly Member
    Barfly
    @Barfly

    Credit where it’s due. God blessed Israel with IMI and Raytheon. 

    • #20
  21. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    iWe:

    Iran attacked with a range of weapons, all meant to overwhelm Israeli defenses. 120 long range ballistic missiles. These suckers leave the atmosphere, and drop straight down with incredible speed and lethal force. In the history of the world, nobody has ever intercepted such an attack. Iran had every reason to think their missiles would succeed. And these missiles, carrying dozens of tons of explosive warheads, were absolutely designed to destroy their targets.

    When you think about it, this is on a scale with the Israelites escaping the Egyptian Army due to a pillar of flame and the parting of the Reed Sea.

    • #21
  22. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    The problem with concluding that this technology was “kissed by god” is that it makes no sense.  Why would the Jews be so blessed today, but not in the 1930’s and 1940’s?  What changed the equation for “god” to suddenly protect the Jews instead of allowing them to be nearly exterminated?  

    Men made this defensive system.  Men operated it.  No deities required to explain it.  Even if there were a god, to me it is much more impressive that men did this alone, without divine intervention, in fact in spite of any past failure to intervene.

    • #22
  23. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it?  And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?  

    • #23
  24. JosephCox Coolidge
    JosephCox
    @JosephCox

    Skyler (View Comment):

    The problem with concluding that this technology was “kissed by god” is that it makes no sense. Why would the Jews be so blessed today, but not in the 1930’s and 1940’s? What changed the equation for “god” to suddenly protect the Jews instead of allowing them to be nearly exterminated?

    Men made this defensive system. Men operated it. No deities required to explain it. Even if there were a god, to me it is much more impressive that men did this alone, without divine intervention, in fact in spite of any past failure to intervene.

    Religious Jews make no claim to be inherently blessed. Quite the opposite.

    We identify our shortcomings as a fundamental source of our suffering. We identify our desire to abandon G-d as a source of antisemitism forcing us back together. 

    In our ideal, we realize the Redemption without suffering – we get it because we earn it.

    But our history is defined again and again by opportunities for Redemption following suffering. We often only exist as a people because of the oppression and our opportunities for Redemption (a State 3 years after the Holocaust!) are regular reminders that we do not rescue ourselves. Instead, we walk through doorways opened by G-d.

    Yes, this was a man made system – but it was never expected to perform this well.  A mere half-year ago there was talk of civil war over the judicial crisis. What followed was suffering (Oct 7th and losses in war) and threat (Iran’s launch) which served to bring our people and our families together.

    Then, in a little way, we experienced a Redemption.

    For me, this is an example of G-d’s mercy which we can choose to embrace.

    Or… we can reject it and experience the cycle once again.

    • #24
  25. JosephCox Coolidge
    JosephCox
    @JosephCox

    Skyler (View Comment):

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it? And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?

    It cost Israel alone about $1.5B to thwart it. 

    Iran’s cruise missiles are maybe $160k. Their ballistic missiles maybe $100k (harder to pin down, probably higher). Their long range drones cost around $190k.

    Total Iran cost was thus around $50M.

    This is not a good long-term plan for Israel.

    At some point, the Ayatollahs will have to be properly dealt with. I believe we can enable the Iranian people themselves to handle it.

    • #25
  26. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Skyler (View Comment):

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it? And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?

    To me the more important question would be “are the just (good guys) winning this war?”  Money is secondary.

    • #26
  27. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Skyler (View Comment):

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it? And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?

    To me the more important question would be “are the just (good guys) winning this war?” Money is secondary.

    Money is how to win, or at least a very important part of it.

    • #27
  28. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Skyler (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Skyler (View Comment):

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it? And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?

    To me the more important question would be “are the just (good guys) winning this war?” Money is secondary.

    Money is how to win, or at least a very important part of it.

    I thought that ingenuity, industriousness, and fortitude trump money when it comes to war.  Russia has more than ten times the Gross National Product that Ukraine has, but it hasn’t won them a war.

    • #28
  29. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Skyler (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Skyler (View Comment):

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it? And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?

    To me the more important question would be “are the just (good guys) winning this war?” Money is secondary.

    Money is how to win, or at least a very important part of it.

    I thought that ingenuity, industriousness, and fortitude trump money when it comes to war. Russia has more than ten times the Gross National Product that Ukraine has, but it hasn’t won them a war.

    You don’t really think the Russians are losing the war, do you?  They have all the time in the world.  They are notoriously incompetent at the start of wars, but give them time and they win through attrition and hard earned competence.  I wouldn’t be betting against them in this war.

    • #29
  30. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Skyler (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Skyler (View Comment):

    Steven Seward (View Comment):

    Skyler (View Comment):

    To me the important question is how much did it cost to conduct this attack, and how much did it cost to thwart it? And then, which side will run out of money or manufacturing ability first?

    To me the more important question would be “are the just (good guys) winning this war?” Money is secondary.

    Money is how to win, or at least a very important part of it.

    I thought that ingenuity, industriousness, and fortitude trump money when it comes to war. Russia has more than ten times the Gross National Product that Ukraine has, but it hasn’t won them a war.

    You don’t really think the Russians are losing the war, do you? They have all the time in the world. They are notoriously incompetent at the start of wars, but give them time and they win through attrition and hard earned competence. I wouldn’t be betting against them in this war.

    Yeah, that’s why they’re doing this.

    The village of Robotyne in Zaporizhzhia region is being attacked by Ural truck assaults. Russians climb into trucks and roll across the open fields, hoping to reach a disembarkation point and launch an assault. Those Urals are completely unarmored, but Russians are covering them with steel nets in hopes of saving themselves from drones.

    It’s not really a tactical choice. Russians are just short on armoured equipment. Unarmoured Ural trucks cannot protect people inside from anti-tank mine blasts. The cheapest grenade launcher can finish off such a truck. Those nets can stop lighter drones, but the entire back of the truck is open for troops to get out, which is a great spot for a drone to enter.

    Russians are short on armour, there is no other explanation. Putting your soldiers in an unarmoured truck to go on a planned assault when the other side has a lot of reconnaissance tools, machine guns and drones, is not normal. Not even by Russian standards.

    The Russians are losing about a battalion a day. But yeah, they can keep doing that – until they run out of Russians. Or trucks.

    • #30
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