Does Iran Know What It’s Doing?

 

I wonder who’s running the show in Iran? Who’s running the show in the U.S.? Iran’s attack on Israel is the oddest combination of actions and comments that I think I’ve ever seen.

First, they alerted their neighbors that they were going to attack Israel. But some of those countries were probably delighted to have advance warning, such as Jordan, who fought against the Iranians when they sent their drones and missiles.

Second, after the attack, Iran made the following declaration:

Iran said that after tonight’s attack, the ‘matter can be deemed concluded’ unless there is more violence.

These actions must be the Middle East version of tit-for-tat. You hit us, we hit you, now we’re even.

Unless Israel retaliates. And you can be sure they will.

And Joe Biden has been a piece of work. He insults Netanyahu repeatedly over the last few months, demands cease fires in Gaza, and goes to the beach when an attack from Iran on Israel is imminent—and he knew it. Seriously? And he’s “warned” Bibi that the U.S. will not take offensive action against Iran, thank goodness. At least he got one thing right.

It’s interesting that many countries have criticized Israel for its attack on Gaza; I don’t have the numbers on the countries that have criticized Iran for attacking Israel. But I expect many more are backing Israel in this attack. You might ask, what’s the difference between the Gaza attack and the Iranian attack? In either case, there is an existential threat from Hamas and from Iran. Ah, but in the former, Israel was the aggressor. In the latter, Iran was the aggressor.

The oppressor becomes the victim once again.

Some things never change.

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. Paul Stinchfield Member
    Paul Stinchfield
    @PaulStinchfield

    Susan Quinn: And Joe Biden has been a piece of work. He insults Netanyahu repeatedly…

    I’m waiting for Biden’s “If you want Hamas defeated then you ain’t Jewish” moment.

    • #1
  2. Misthiocracy has never Member
    Misthiocracy has never
    @Misthiocracy

    Perhaps the matter “can be deemed concluded” because precious few missiles and drones actually made it through to their targets, and Iran realizes that they’ve really stepped in it?

    • #2
  3. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Misthiocracy has never (View Comment):

    Perhaps the matter “can be deemed concluded” because precious few missiles and drones actually made it through to their targets, and Iran realizes that they’ve really stepped in it?

    Good one! Except that they said that before all the drones and missiles were sent. 

    • #3
  4. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Does anyone want to talk about WWIII?

    • #4
  5. Douglas Pratt Coolidge
    Douglas Pratt
    @DouglasPratt

    So next, we get drone attacks on American cities. Hmm. Wonder if a good rifle in 30-06 will bring down an Iranian flying bomb? V-1 time. I see a volunteer militia forming up…

    • #5
  6. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Douglas Pratt (View Comment):

    So next, we get drone attacks on American cities. Hmm. Wonder if a good rifle in 30-06 will bring down an Iranian flying bomb? V-1 time. I see a volunteer militia forming up…

    The implications are scary. And I have no reason to think Iran will be predictable…

    • #6
  7. Kevin Schulte Member
    Kevin Schulte
    @KevinSchulte

    Well , as I put on my tinfoil hat . 

    Is it possible that the mullahs were paid handsomely to put on such a pathetic response . 

    After all this will push Ukraine graft back to the top of the GOP  agenda as well as lots of Israeli graft . 

    Just a note. I am a full supporter of the nation of Israel . But does anyone doubt there is loads of graft in the money and arms sent to Israel like there is to Ukraine .   

     Just spit balling . Cause that Iranian response makes no sense . 

    • #7
  8. Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler Member
    Muleskinner, Weasel Wrangler
    @Muleskinner

    Susan Quinn:

    And Joe Biden has been a piece of work. He insults Netanyahu repeatedly over the last few months, demands cease fires in Gaza, and goes to the beach when an attack from Iran on Israel is imminent—and he knew it. Seriously? And he’s “warned” Bibi that the U.S. will not take offensive action against Iran, thank goodness. At least he got one thing right.

    If he hasn’t already, Mr. Trump should start calling him  “Diaper Joe,” because on the question of whether Israel has the right to defend itself, Joe says “Depends.”

    • #8
  9. cdor Member
    cdor
    @cdor

    I read six months ago, or so, that China had developed an attack technique against USA carriers that involved overwhelming the carrier’s defenses with thousands of drones carrying much smaller poundage of munitions that were made effective by the number of drones used in the attack. The cost of using this technique was miniscule compared to using lesser numbers of higher powered missiles carrying much larger payloads. Iran didn’t use very many drones, in retrospect, against the entire country of Israel. This attack may have been intended to bait Israel into responding, rather than doing any actual damage.

    • #9
  10. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    cdor (View Comment):
    This attack may have been intended to bait Israel into responding, rather than doing any actual damage.

    That occurred to me, too, cdor. But if Israel responds, it won’t be pretty. Iran won’t like it much…

    • #10
  11. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    cdor (View Comment):

    I read six months ago, or so, that China had developed an attack technique against USA carriers that involved overwhelming the carrier’s defenses with thousands of drones carrying much smaller poundage of munitions that were made effective by the number of drones used in the attack. The cost of using this technique was miniscule compared to using lesser numbers of higher powered missiles carrying much larger payloads. Iran didn’t use very many drones, in retrospect, against the entire country of Israel. This attack may have been intended to bait Israel into responding, rather than doing any actual damage.

    This is pretty much how Hamas was able to invade Israel October 7.

    I can’t help thinking that it’s the newest version of World War II chaff–it’s meant to distract and confuse the enemy (as well as screw up the radar). Its purpose is the same as the stunning grenades our SWAT teams use to disorient the target.

    We are in new warmaking territory.

    • #11
  12. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    MarciN (View Comment):
    We are in new warmaking territory. 

    I think you’re right, Marci, but I’m not sure anyone knows how to proceed. It will be interesting to see if Israel retaliates.

    • #12
  13. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Are China and Russia testing our defenses?

    Russia’s relationships with China and Iran are really important for us to understand. 

    China doesn’t necessarily blow things up. They think differently. They prefer to weaken their opponent over a long period. 

    And at this moment, they want wealth–hence their interest in Taiwan. 

     

    • #13
  14. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    The West cannot forget for a single second, as they analyze this attack, that the training camps for Hamas for the October 7 attack were located in Iran. 

    I don’t know what that means exactly except that I know it is significant. 

    • #14
  15. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Does anyone want to talk about WWIII?

    Not sure what you mean, Susan.

    I’m sitting here contemplating the wider impact of this 100-percent failed attack. Iran and China cooperate on missile technology. That doesn’t mean China gives them all the goods, necessarily, but I’m thinking of the implications for Taiwan security. So, sure, WWIII.

    No cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, or drones made it through. Iran considers the matter concluded. The tiger has no teeth.

    A few days ago, someone shared yet another link about the ascendancy of China, a “lone superpower” when their banking system is collapsing and their economy is barely growing beyond a minimal rate for an emerging market. I said it was overblown, and if China tried to attack Taiwan, they wouldn’t get a single boot on the ground.

    It’s true. The rhetoric is meant to create a threat where there is none. The worst things we can do to entrenched Washington interests is ignore China and Russia. Iran was backed into a corner by someone on this and had to launch that attack, knowing full well the likely response. That’s why they considered it concluded before it started. They were pleading with Israel not to respond.

    Incidentally, I’m sure I don’t need to tell everyone here that Jordan actively defended Israeli airspace. Think about the implications of that as well.

    Just a hot take here, and certainly not one you’ll find on the news.

    • #15
  16. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Does anyone want to talk about WWIII?

    Not sure what you mean, Susan.

    I’m sitting here contemplating the wider impact of this 100-percent failed attack. Iran and China cooperate on missile technology. That doesn’t mean China gives them all the goods, necessarily, but I’m thinking of the implications for Taiwan security. So, sure, WWIII.

    No cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, or drones made it through. Iran considers the matter concluded. The tiger has no teeth.

    A few days ago, someone shared yet another link about the ascendancy of China, a “lone superpower” when their banking system is collapsing and their economy is barely growing beyond a minimal rate for an emerging market. I said it was overblown, and if China tried to attack Taiwan, they wouldn’t get a single boot on the ground.

    It’s true. The rhetoric is meant to create a threat where there is none. The worst things we can do to entrenched Washington interests is ignore China and Russia. Iran was backed into a corner by someone on this and had to launch that attack, knowing full well the likely response. That’s why they considered it concluded before it started. They were pleading with Israel not to respond.

    Just a hot take here, and certainly not one you’ll find on the news.

    You’ve made good points, Chris. I mainly raised the question on WWIII as an open question, not a leading one. I think Iran has shown us how weak they really are. But will Israel feel the need to act, even in a small way? Taking out munitions facilities might be a good idea…

    • #16
  17. DrewInWisconsin, Œuf 🚫 Banned
    DrewInWisconsin, Œuf
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Iran was backed into a corner by someone on this and had to launch that attack, knowing full well the likely response. That’s why they considered it concluded before it started. They were pleading with Israel not to respond.

    Obama?

    “Attack Israel or the money spigot gets turned off!”

    The sad part is that that’s actually within the realm of possibilities.

     

    • #17
  18. Hartmann von Aue Member
    Hartmann von Aue
    @HartmannvonAue

    RE: The world reactions to Iran’s foolish and thankfully incompetent failure of an attack on Israel:

     

    https://www.dw.com/en/world-leaders-condemn-irans-attack-on-israel/a-68813467

     

     

     

    • #18
  19. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):
    You’ve made good points, Chris. I mainly raised the question on WWIII as an open question, not a leading one. I think Iran has shown us how weak they really are. But will Israel feel the need to act, even in a small way? Taking out munitions facilities might be a good idea…

    I don’t think there is a need to respond. Iran’s demonstration damaged itself beyond Israel’s ability to degrade its industrial capacity. If all they can produce is munitions that fail, why bother? Let them spend their treasure on fantasies.

    The region is uniting against Iran. This was happening before all this and the only thing that slowed it up was ham-handed foreign policy courtesy of the Biden White House.

    • #19
  20. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    I don’t know what to make of this report assuming there is any truth in it. If we did have fore-knowledge of the attack and blessed it, what kind of ally to Israel are we? Also, was the attack just an elaborate staged event planned to fail and also allow Iran to save face for the recent killing of its terror mastermind by Israel?

    • #20
  21. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Hartmann von Aue (View Comment):

    RE: The world reactions to Iran’s foolish and thankfully incompetent failure of an attack on Israel:

     

    https://www.dw.com/en/world-leaders-condemn-irans-attack-on-israel/a-68813467

     

     

     

    Thanks, Hartmann. I was having trouble finding global reactions.

    • #21
  22. Susan Quinn Member
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    tigerlily (View Comment):
    I don’t know what to make of this report assuming there is any truth in it. If we did have fore-knowledge of the attack and blessed it, what kind of ally to Israel are we? Also, was the attack just an elaborate staged event planned to fail and also allow Iran to save face for the recent killing of its terror mastermind by Israel?

    I can believe they told Turkey; maybe this is why Biden was so sure it would be happening imminently. I wouldn’t doubt that Iran told Biden in advance, too, since he’s speaking out of both sides of his mouth to all sides.

    • #22
  23. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    DrewInWisconsin, Œuf (View Comment):

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Iran was backed into a corner by someone on this and had to launch that attack, knowing full well the likely response. That’s why they considered it concluded before it started. They were pleading with Israel not to respond.

    Obama?

    “Attack Israel or the money spigot gets turned off!”

    The sad part is that that’s actually within the realm of possibilities.

    Only Russia or China (or one other non-regional power) would have the leverage. It disgusts me to consider all the possibilities, but… this is where we are in 2024. Is there a possibility it’s a non-state actor? It seems far fetched.

    • #23
  24. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    tigerlily (View Comment):
    I don’t know what to make of this report assuming there is any truth in it. If we did have fore-knowledge of the attack and blessed it, what kind of ally to Israel are we? Also, was the attack just an elaborate staged event planned to fail and also allow Iran to save face for the recent killing of its terror mastermind by Israel?

    I can believe they told Turkey; maybe this is why Biden was so sure it would be happening imminently. I wouldn’t doubt that Iran told Biden in advance, too, since he’s speaking out of both sides of his mouth to all sides.

    This way Iran still has access to the $10 billion Biden unfroze recently and can still sell their oil on the world market without sanctions.

    • #24
  25. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Incidentally, I’m sure I don’t need to tell everyone here that Jordan actively defended Israeli airspace. Think about the implications of that as well.

    Technically I don’t think Jordan was defending “Israeli airspace”. As all things in the Middle East relations between Israel and Arab countries require some ambiguity. Having launched from Iran, overflight of Jordan was unavoidable, and may have been the reason Iran signaled their attack and target in advance in hopes that Jordan would not intervene in defense of its own airspace. And the operation of American and British aircraft was “acceptable” as defense of Jordanian airspace. 

     

    • #25
  26. Chris O Coolidge
    Chris O
    @ChrisO

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Incidentally, I’m sure I don’t need to tell everyone here that Jordan actively defended Israeli airspace. Think about the implications of that as well.

    Technically I don’t think Jordan was defending “Israeli airspace”. As all things in the Middle East relations between Israel and Arab countries require some ambiguity. Having launched from Iran, overflight of Jordan was unavoidable, and may have been the reason Iran signaled their attack and target in advance in hopes that Jordan would not intervene in defense of its own airspace. And the operation of American and British aircraft was “acceptable” as defense of Jordanian airspace.

     

    Yes, I worded that simply and thought about the left out context. Let me put it this way: I’m certain Jordan didn’t think any of the missiles and drones were targeted at them, yet they engaged. It is a significant gesture.

    • #26
  27. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    I’m having trouble believing this, but if true, then Iran knew exactly what it was doing. 

     

    • #27
  28. aardo vozz Member
    aardo vozz
    @aardovozz

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Chris O (View Comment):

    Incidentally, I’m sure I don’t need to tell everyone here that Jordan actively defended Israeli airspace. Think about the implications of that as well.

    Technically I don’t think Jordan was defending “Israeli airspace”. As all things in the Middle East relations between Israel and Arab countries require some ambiguity. Having launched from Iran, overflight of Jordan was unavoidable, and may have been the reason Iran signaled their attack and target in advance in hopes that Jordan would not intervene in defense of its own airspace. And the operation of American and British aircraft was “acceptable” as defense of Jordanian airspace.

     

    Yes, I worded that simply and thought about the left out context. Let me put it this way: I’m certain Jordan didn’t think any of the missiles and drones were targeted at them, yet they engaged. It is a significant gesture.

    And possibly a practical gesture as well. If one of those missiles malfunctioned and hit something in Jordanian territory…..🤔

    • #28
  29. aardo vozz Member
    aardo vozz
    @aardovozz

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Does anyone want to talk about WWIII?

    Only that I’m feeling a need to quote the musical satirist Tom Lehrer. On introducing a song(“So long , mom( “I’m off to drop the bomb)”), he said that if any good songs are gonna come out of World War III, we’d better start writing them now…😬😬😬

    • #29
  30. Django Member
    Django
    @Django

    aardo vozz (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Does anyone want to talk about WWIII?

    Only that I’m feeling a need to quote the musical satirist Tom Lehrer. On introducing a song(“So long , mom( “I’m off to drop the bomb)”), he said that if any good songs are gonna come out of World War III, we’d better start writing them now…😬😬😬

    Close enough. 

    While you swelter way down in your shelter, 
    You can see me on the TV

    . . .

    I’ll be back when the war is over
    And hour and a half from now

    • #30
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