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Putting down a marker
Saw this at Instapundit:
Seems to depend on AZ, WI, and PA, again.
I think it’s time for those of us who were certain this would not happen to admit that it could.
I don’t say this to spark a debate about Trump – I think we’ve had one or two of those over the years – but to ask the cohort of NTTTFGSWCOHSNWBA (Not Trump The Time For God’s Sake We Could Have Had Someone New Who’d Beat Biden) whether they’re still convinced of his inevitable and decisive defeat. I was before; now I’m not. And it’s not just this map.
I think it’s inflation, immigration, crime, wokey BS, and general malaise with the ruling class. Trump’s history on COVID and vaccines and spending and the Wall For Which Mexico Would Pay are irrelevant, because all those crimson states are pretty sure he would not pursue Bidenesque policies. Anyway, I lay down this marker to say that my presumptions may have been wrong. I thought he’d lost the middle and the persuadable. Perhaps that’s true and they don’t matter; perhaps that’s wrong when it comes down to push and shove. Perhaps it’s CNN trying to keep the electorate tremulous and angry to beef the ratings. Perhaps the polls show that a lot of people who can’t stand Trump will vote for him anyway because Let’s Go Brandon. I don’t know.
But for fellow NTTTFGSWCOHSNWBAs: if he wins, what does this do to your assumptions? What conclusions would you draw?
Published in General
Pity that the Democrats have not done that since 2000.
(sigh)
If he wins and it is not within the cheating limit he will not be president
If he wins above the level of cheating then there will be lots of hijinks to keep him from being president
Perhaps we will see a January 6th style insurrection by the Dems. (its ok because it is trump)
(sigh). (Refills drink. Continues loading mags)
Which I hope means dialing back wind and solar in favor of nuke. And more oil! And more gas, exported hither and yon in great quantities.
BTW, this may feel wrong, because we know the left does not smile kindly on petrochemicals, but:
The link has a chart showing production numbers in the Biden years exceed the numbers from the Trump years. I think the Trump administration would be better for energy, yes, but we oughtn’t argue from a belief that Biden throttled crude production.
I recommend a little deeper thinking on this…as in what has already been baked into the cake for the next several years regarding new leases coming on-line and how that will impact the “production” numbers. (The impact of an administration on some things doesn’t really always line up with the dates of service. Sometimes the shift is rather significant.) Based on the open and active hostility of the Biden camp to such things from the very first moments after the inauguration, I’ll cling to this “belief” until a full set of data is available to prove otherwise. But that’s just me…
We also shouldn’t forget things like Obama trying to cut down production as much as possible, mostly on federal lands, but he couldn’t do as much on private land; then when production was good and gas prices were relatively low, Obama claimed credit for what he tried to stop.
They have thrown up as many barriers as possible to new drilling.
Leases approved under Trump are coming online now. No new leases means less exploration and drilling now. This means no new wells coming online in the future.
Halting pipeline construction means that the oil has to come out on trains.
Which Warren Buffet profits from.
Nothing has been changed in the mechanics of voting since the last stolen election. Yeah stolen.
I expect no different outcome this time.
We are officially a Banana Republic.
1860. FIFY
You’re absolutely right about the importance of Trump’s VP pick. Which parts of his political legacy will survive? Which elements of the old GOP will rejoin the coalition? Will the fastest growing voter segments, independents and hispanics, become first time Trump voters in 2024? Who gets the advantage of VP incumbency in 2028?
If Trump cares most about the pure MAGA agenda, he may deem Senator Vance worthy. We know Trump values loyalty, so that’s a “no” to DeSantis and Haley. He won’t want someone around who wants the job prematurely. DeSantis has other political baggage which makes him a major turn-off to the independents and centrists necessary to put 2024 over the goal line.
Politically and personality-wise, DJT likes being around smart women. (I sympathize.) He also believes looks matter. How smart is Governor Noem? I’m not sure being Governor of so small a state is a sufficient test. Moderate GOP women would help bring in suburbia, but generally these aren’t Trump loyalists.
Trump loyalists abound in Florida. In his present financial situation, the President may not want to proclaim the high tax state of New Jersey as his next official residence, but that would be the price of putting a Floridian on the ticket. Still, that’s where you’ll find two of the more promising VP picks.
Rep. Byron Donalds has a lot going for him. As we know from his frequent appearances on Fox (which Trump watches regularly, despite his apparent feud with the Murdochs) Congressman Donalds is a strong supporter who speaks with confidence and authority on economic policy as well as foreign affairs and cultural issues.
Donalds’ race and gender could cement Trump’s growing alliance with black men. Is it fair to speculate that some of those mystery write-in votes which concern the GOP are in fact black women casting — or supervising — the votes of men who now or at one point shared their address? I’m hoping that the living among these gentlemen, hubbies, ex’s, sons, etc. will assert the privacy of the ballot in 2024.
Race/gender aren’t fair criteria for VP selection. It’s now apparent to all what a disaster that can be. It’s also no reason to rule out a qualified candidate.
Another Floridian worthy of consideration, now that he’s come onboard with Trump’s position on immigration, is Senator Marco Rubio. Only a Cuban-American, and others with personal experience of Communism, can oppose its encroachment here with sufficient passion for me. Rubio is also an eloquent speaker, an inspiring voice for legal immigration, which means he’ll sell our #1 priority, border control, with a note of compassion. He’s also expert in foreign policy, and President Trump will surely enjoy standing next to “little” Marco. Like James Madison, Rubio could some day stand as tall in history as his illustrious predecessor.
Looking at the map, all the states with a high probability of cheating are either yellow (tossup) or blue (light or dark), except for Michigan. Biden needs to run the table on all the yellow states and pick up Michigan, too.
That should mean it is a lock for Biden, except – as the Lightbringer once observed – “Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f— things up.” I have every confidence Joe will do something further alienate the American public by election season.
Just continuing what Joe believes to be “norms” already continue to alienate more and more people as time passes.
I’m talking above simply doing that. Something obviously and egregiously stupid like cutting off aid to Israel and sending it to Hamas instead. Or mobilizing the red state National Guard to send them to Ukraine. Something really Joe-like.
Sad to think that where that SoB is concerned those actions are not beyond the pale.
Hm… could state governors… “liquidate?”… their National Guards so that there would be nobody to send?
Or transfer them all to State Guard situations like Texas has, which are not under federal authority ever?
Would not need to if Badtouch Biden tried to mobilize the National Guard with just an Executive Order and no Congressional authorization. Governors could simply refuse t0 allow their guards to be activated, claiming it is an illegal order. It would then go to the courts.
Which is why I suggested it – Biden is stupid enough and arrogant enough to try it.
The Democrats see this map as well. They possess exceptional election smarts, have strong party discipline, own the major media and are devious. Expect major surprises during the election season. Think of the most outlandish ruse, double it and you might come close to the actual surprises that are being planned by the party of evil. Can the party of stupid correctly anticipate and/or thwart the surprises? Buckle up kiddos, we’re in for a wild ride.
Like many other Americans, I can’t stand Donald J Trump but America was much better off during his watch and so I will likely vote for him. That is the thing the Republican’s need to hammer on. Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?