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Russian Dissolution: iWe Might Be Right Again!
Since Russia’s first failed attempt to capture Ukraine, I have been predicting that Russia’s focus on Ukraine would lead to different regions in the former Soviet Union breaking away to assert independence and settle old grievances.
My timing was poor, but the underlying fundamentals were right. As we can see from Azerbaijan starting a war against Russian-backed Armenia. If Azerbaijan wins and Russia’s client loses, it will inspire copycats of all kinds. Russia simply lacks the resources to hold it all together.
I wrote, 10 April 2022:
I think we are about (in the months or years to come) to witness something truly amazing: the end of Russia.
Here is how I see it playing out: Poland and Czechia and many other nations are coming to realize that bleeding Russia out in Ukraine using Ukrainian or other volunteers is far preferable to a future war on their own turf. So they keep pouring personnel and weaponry into Ukraine. Since their economies far exceed Russia (even before sanctions), their ability to keep re-arming the battlefield greatly exceed Russia’s.
Russia bleeds its army, both in terms of armaments and personnel, in Eastern Ukraine; it might take a month or two years, but as long as they keep prosecuting this war, the Russians bleed out. The Ukrainians, backed by the enormous amounts of material and war toys from the US and the rest of Europe, end up pulverizing the Russians — and this time they might even recapture Crimea from an entirely demoralized, depressed, and deflated Russian army. The anti-ship missiles coming into Ukraine ensure the Russian fleet in the Black Sea becomes hunted and on the run. The Russian populace wants nothing to do with going into battle (those who have not already fled to Turkey or Armenia to avoid being conscripted). While Ukraine’s soldiers are motivated and energized, fighting for their homeland and national pride.
Russia ends up without an effective military. Which makes it ripe for secessionist movements across the land, as well as invaders across borders (like Japan retaking the Kuril Islands), because there is no effective force to prevent these internal and external forces from breaking Russia into smaller and smaller pieces. China may even invade to secure much-needed oil and gas resources.
So the irony in this situation would be that Putin will have achieved precisely the opposite of his goal. Instead of presiding over the expansion of Russia, he is the last dictator of Russia as we know it today.
Just wanted to make sure some horn-tooting has been duly delivered…
Published in General
$5 on Georgia to be next, it’s only held by Russian military force.
Kazakhstan has already quietly shifted its alignment towards China.
They started out without an effective military. It’s just that now everyone knows. There is more to fielding an army than just amassing tanks and artillery. One has to supply it and command it via secure and reliable communication.
Motivated, highly-trained, and well-equipped soldiers help, too.
China will likely broker solutions for several of the potential breakaways. Keep them in the fold so Putin does not lose face using belt and road leverage while granting more autonomy. Everybody winds up being more dependent on China.
By “Russia” do you mean the Russian empire?
The situation in Azerbaijan is over. The Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh have laid down their arms, a ceasefire has been agreed, and ethnic Armenians who wish to leave will be able to (the local airport is already getting fairly crowded).
All of which has been and is being facilitated largely by … Russian mediators/peacekeepers.
Yet again, I’m afraid you’ll just have to wipe the saliva off your horn’s lip piece, put it safely back in its carry case, and await the next time you can take it out and toot it again in “Oyez, oyez, oyez! A butterfly has just flapped its wings in a former Soviet republic! Surely the hurricane that will finally blow Russia down is at hand!” fashion.
PS to clarify the “butterfly/hurricane” reference above:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Butterfly_effect
Oh, right. The Russians lost, saving some face by “brokering” the surrender. Which totally vitiates my thesis.
And do you really believe that, now the Azers have tasted blood, they will stop?
The Russians have been neutral in regards to the Azerbaijan-Armenia conflicts. They didn’t have a dog to lose in this fight. ‘Matter of fact, they’ve been a principal supplier of weapons to BOTH sides.
You really need to raise your level of understanding of the overall situation there a bit.
You could have fooled everyone else:
Russia Can’t Protect Its Allies Anymore
Moscow is overstretched in Ukraine—and Armenia is suffering the consequences.
or
Why Is Armenia So Close to Russia and Iran?
Armenia is a Russian client state.
Amusingly, the very piece you cite above echoes my comments above in regards to Russia’s stance in this conflict:
“… the Kremlin—long the major arms supplier of both sides—also continued to offer Azerbaijan more heavy weaponry. … Following the Sept. 12-14 fighting, Armenia turned to the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and requested a direct intervention to protect it. … Russian President Vladimir Putin showed no interest in diverting efforts. …”
The Armenians screwed up They took Putin at his word.
What did Putin promise Armenia, pray tell?
What are the Aremenians getting out of the relationship now?
What were they promised by Putin?
Azerbaijani forces just killed 8 Russian soldiers in Karabakh.
Armenia is a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization with Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Russia, and Tajikistan. An attack on one member is to be regarded an attack on all, unless Vladimir gets himself mired in a stupid war of imperial aggression and would only further embarrass himself and Russia . The treaty is fit for house training puppies.
Of course, involvement in the Armenian/Azerbaijan conflict would represent significant risk to Vladimir. His military could slip from second to third in the post-Soviet countries.
I have little doubt that “Visegrad24” and his followers are ever so very excited about this incident.
The Azerbaijani gov’t has already profusely apologized and offered condolences to Russia.
And that’s that, … until the next occasion for “Visegrad24” et al. to get excited about.
Putin needs to run away faster.
Nagorno-Karabakh is a region entirely inside Azerbaijan. As such, the CSTO’s Article 4 is not applicable.
Wow, never thought I’d read triumphalism over the Armenian Christians in Nagorno-Karabakh being defeated by the Muslim Azerbaijani on Ricochet, whatever the supposed damage done to Putin and Russia.
Surprising, and not in a good way.
From what, pray tell?
Azerbaijan walks a complex tightrope: a Muslim country that’s (relatively) friendly to Jews; closely related to Turkey, but ethnically Iranian; Russia’s long time “Texas” oil-wise. The Azeris balance all that, and are “soft” allies of Georgia, a Christian nation. They have good relations with the US. Armenia, on the other hand, despite a big diaspora in the US, put all of their eggs in Russia’s basket. Russia hasn’t reciprocated; as GP notes, Russia has tried to remain neutral, especially since they became preoccupied with other matters.
The need to walk complex tightropes has been, is, and will (for the foreseeable future) continue to be the unfortunate fate of small countries, as they try to avoid being trampled by whoever the Big Powers at the time happen to be, as said Big Powers jostle between/among themselves for geopolitical primacy.
It is very refreshing to come across a comment such as yours, which acknowledges the reality of such complex dynamics, in stark contrast to simplistically binary … “analyses”.
Please confirm? (I thought that Azerbaijan is ethnically Turkic, and that ethnic Iranians have been know to try to exterminate Azeris.)
It’s a mix; the language and culture are Turkic, but the ethnicity is a combo. There are still plenty of Azeri-speakers in northern Iran.
BTW. One goof in The World is Not Enough, which was partly set in Baku, is a scene of an Orthodox priest leading a parade of religious pilgrims. Yes, it was part of the Russian Empire and then the USSR, but it isn’t Orthodox.
Please be specific. You actually mentioned no such area. And your quoted passage did not mention Azerbaijan that you cite as the exemplar.
Whereas Azerbaijan had already broken away, your quoted prior post mentioned areas that would not break away but rather be taken away.
Regarding the latter, clearly China is drooling over Siberia but is not likely to do anything until Russia has expended most of its nuclear arsenal on the US. Japan only gets Sakhalin and the Kuriles as a Chinese puppet state.
In terms of breaking away we could start with Chechnya and Dagestan, but I’ll let you elaborate on your specific prediction of which two areas will shortly be “breaking away to assert independence and settle old grievances.”
thx, that answers my question.
Yes, of course. Unrelated question.
I am merely trying to scope the large-scale consequences of the Ukrainian war. There will be good – and bad – outcomes from a weak(er) Russia. Chaos is certain to increase.
I personally tend toward a preference for freedom and dynamism over static strongmen. But most people do not share my views, and I can appreciate why. Certainly most of Asia does not even comprehend what I call “Liberty,” and feuds of all kinds dominate political and tribal and even familial life.
All this would have never happened if the Mongols had not ceded control of the region…
If instead of restoring the czarist/Soviet empire, Putin tears it all up, what then?
Russian identity is a weird and fragile thing. There is a Russian fairy tale about a big cooking pot left in the woods. A small animal declares it to be his new home. Then a series of increasingly larger animals arrive and each demands to also move in. Lastly, a bear arrives and wants in. The other animals say that even if they left, the bear would not fit. The bear gets angry and flattens the pot killing the animals inside and then walks away. The various animals were supposed to represent European powers and the bear is Russia which wants into Europe but knows it will never really fit in and should just smash the pot.
I wonder if we are looking at a network of future de facto Chinese satellite states. Bound economically and dependent on Chinese diplomatic, economic, and military resources to keep Russian retribution at bay and keep rival tribal entities in check (which the Russians are likely too exhausted to do). The carrot is a trade zone/economic union within the Chinese orbit.
Some discussion of the general issue from a few months back including former Soviet Republics and current subdivisions of Russia: