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Is DeSantis Jeopardizing a Presidential Run?
Many of us have said that if there’s any indication that Ron DeSantis was running for President, he would immediately have a target on his back. He hasn’t even declared his candidacy yet, and the media is attacking him. At this point, though, it’s helpful to actually know the facts about his potential for running, the ideas and policies that will help or hinder him, and what the future might hold.
So why hasn’t DeSantis declared his candidacy? The answer seems so obvious to me. Several months ago, he stated that he wanted to stay engaged with the FL legislature until this session was concluded; that happens in May. I’m pretty certain that he isn’t going to allow a persistent and badgering media to change his mind. Second, he technically can’t run for President while he is governor of Florida:
Currently, F.S. Chapter 99 reads: (4)(a) Any officer who qualifies for federal public office must resign from the office he or she presently holds if the terms, or any part thereof, run concurrently with each other. (b) The resignation is irrevocable.
Since the next presidential term would begin in January 2025, in the middle of DeSantis’s second term as governor, lawmakers will certainly make adjustments to allow him to stay governor as long as needed.
In that case, there’s no hurry to pass the new legislation.
Another criticism is the image the media is trying to impose on DeSantis. Some describe him as cold and indifferent to people; others say that he is trying to imitate Trump through his assertive language. In the first place, this is the man who protected Floridians from draconian Covid policies, and also made sure that the most at-risk people, including the elderly and minority groups, had access to the shots. Comparing him to Trump is a bizarre observation; DeSantis rarely attacks other people, limits his name-calling (I do think he called Biden “Brandon”), and is direct and not hyperbolic in his feedback on destructive policies.
The most critical arguments against him are almost always about policies that Floridians have embraced (including many Democrats) and that outsiders hate. He has been described as authoritarian when he refused to comply with the Biden administration’s demands. He was labeled uncompassionate when he wouldn’t allow people to be forced into Covid shots. His protecting children from the education system was courageous and consistent; refusing to allow gender-affirming curriculum, CRT propaganda, and prohibiting books in school libraries that were inappropriate for children made him a champion among parents.
DeSantis has repeatedly said that Florida is a place where “woke comes to die.”
One of the most controversial conflicts has been with the Disney company. Given that Disney took political positions, attacking not only DeSantis but the people of Florida, DeSantis felt they were fair game for retribution. Thus, began the fights over the Reedy Creek Improvement District, where Disney had been given nearly full control. He also decided to create a new governing board that would be accountable to the state, not to Disney. The Disney company tried to make an end run around this change, but they completed only two of the legal requirements to maintain control, and thus their efforts to reverse the DeSantis actions were voided.
Up to this point, I agreed with the DeSantis changes regarding Disney; I believed that the Disney accommodations by Florida were extreme and needed to be modified. But more recently, DeSantis has pushed for more actions that appear to be more punitive than warranted. He proposed that Disney World would no longer self-inspect its own rides, as Disney and the other large amusement parks have done for many years. The other parks, like Sea World and Universal, would continue to self-inspect, so it appears that Disney was singled out—even though it had a stellar record on safety and reporting. I agree with ride safety expert Brian Avery that the issue shouldn’t be politicized and requirements should be uniform for large parks:
‘What’s good for one should be good for all,’ he said. ‘This should not be targeted in any way . . . I would rather that they all be removed from the exemption [that allows them to self-inspect] and then the Department of Agriculture acts as a layer providing additional safety inspections, oversight [and] accident investigations.’
Better yet, if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.
Occasionally, DeSantis likes to poke at people and organizations that try to flex their muscles against the state (as Disney has repeatedly tried to do). He commented on the district land that Disney didn’t own:
‘People are like, ‘Well …what should we do with this land?’ said a smiling DeSantis. ‘Maybe create a state park, maybe try to do more amusement parks? Someone even said, ‘Maybe you need another state prison?’ Who knows? I just think that the possibilities are endless.’
Donald Trump is piling on his criticisms of DeSantis with name-calling and misleading issues. (He’s distorted DeSantis’ position on Medicare and Social Security, for starters.) I believe that the more hyperbolic Trump acts and speaks, the more his efforts will be self-defeating. Self-immolation, so to speak, makes the DeSantis run even more appealing.
Finally, much has been made of the abortion law passed in Florida. This article, for thoughtful reasons, explained why the fetal heartbeat (six-week) law passed in Florida was appropriate for this state, following a 15-week law that passed earlier when he ran again for governor. The problem is not that “extreme” laws are being passed, but that the laws are not being drawn up to meet the needs and expectations of a state’s population:
Running on an absolutist pro-life platform now is the mirror image of the mistake Democrats have made running on an absolutist pro-abortion platform. Some tolerance for less-than-ideal laws is politically necessary. So, too, is a willingness to work incrementally—enacting a pain-capable law today if that’s possible, working to shape public opinion, and passing a heartbeat bill later. Florida accomplished that in only a year.
When the law matches the state’s expectations, Republicans can win:
Taxpayer-funded abortion on demand throughout all nine months of pregnancy—the official Democratic platform—is extremely unpopular, going too far even for many Democratic voters. The pro-life movement and the GOP have an opportunity to expose this left-wing extremism.
When articulate politicians do this, they win. Mr. DeSantis—no shrinking violet in front of hostile media—ran for re-election in 2022 having signed into law a pain-capable bill, which protects babies after 15 weeks, that same year. He won by 19 points. Last week, while considering a presidential bid, he signed the heartbeat bill. In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine won last year by 25 points after signing a heartbeat law. Georgia Gov. Brian Kemp and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott both won decisive victories after signing heartbeat laws. Sen. Marco Rubio was re-elected by 16 points after expressing strong support for a 15-week federal limit.
But Republicans can’t win if they allow Democrats to define the debate. The Republicans must rally constituents in primaries in an effort to save the lives of the unborn. They must remind the people that Democrats—without exception, at least publicly—are prepared to kill fully developed babies. Instead of seeing the abortion debate as a liability, we must fight for babies’ lives.
* * * *
The national abortion argument is precisely the type of stance that Gov. Ron DeSantis has been prepared to engage, along with many other issues.
He speaks clearly and with conviction. He takes care of the people in his state. He knows his values and the interests of his constituents.
I believe DeSantis will declare his candidacy in the next three months.
He will run.
And he will win.
Published in Elections
I always assumed that DeSantis would wait to declare his candidacy until just before or (much more likely) shortly after the Florida legislative session wraps up, which I believe is on May 5th. I think that timetable is a perfectly reasonable one to make.
DeSantis has done just about everything required to run for President and so I agree it is just a matter of time before he declares his candidacy. After raising expectations (and big money) if he balked now it would hurt him in 2028. I like the discipline and control it shows when he takes action on his planned schedule and is not ruled by events. Its obvious the ones demanding he respond to this or that event in a particular way are not working for him they are working against him. There is plenty of time (a few months) for him to get in the race
I too am leery of the way he is handling Disney but admit I am ignorant of the details. From a distance it looks more like a vendetta than good policy.
Of those likely to run, I think DeSantis would be the most conservative and be an effective president so he currently has my vote. Still if Trump were not running I don’t know he would be the most likely candidate to win the general. Its possible a socially moderate, competent good government type Republican would coast to an easy win. With Trump in the race its a different calculus. Because his base is a shrinking plurality and not a majority, its practically certain that Trump can’t win in the general. We must have another candidate who can win. DeSantis has the best Republican shot of winning the general because you can’t win the general without winning the primaries. DeSantis governs as solid conserative so He can win the primaries if he holds onto conservative non Trump voters, pulls the serious conservatives from Trump splitting Trump’s base and gets enough moderate support as the least bad alternative. Hope that makes sense.
I listened to a Roger Stone interview on Viva Frei on Rumble.(https://rumble.com/v2j9x7g-interview-with-roger-stone-did-it-all-begin-with-jfk-pentagon-leaks-deep-st.html). The audio was terrible, but the content important enough that Viva Frei left it up. The interview covers a lot of ground, but the reason I am mentioning it here is that Stone explained a couple of things that I was have trouble figuring out: (1) why Trump had attacked DeSantis as “disloyal” and (2) why Trump is attacking DeSantis on his Covid response. (This is not vouching for the truth of any of this, but is sharing Stones’ account.)
DeSantis’ first run for Governor was an improbable one. All the establishment Rs and all of the R congressmen other than Matt Gaetz were behind another Republican in the primaries. Gaetz and Stone brought DeSantis’ campaign to Trump’s attention. They highlight DeSantis’ support for Trump in the Russia Hoax matter (although DeSantis had opposed Trump in the 2016 primaries). So Trump spent political capital on DeSantis’ behalf to get him into the general election and then again made several trips to Florida to help DeSantis squeak out a win over a popular mayor Tallahassee. (That mayor later got caught in a drug/gay sex scandal, but before the election had tremendous support Democratic circles.) So, according to Stone, DeSantis’ initial position that he wouldn’t run if Trump was running was the right call. Now, Stone believes that DeSantis’ was running for President the day he was sworn in as Governor. Stone feels that Trump is rightly miffed at DeSantis’ lack of appreciation and deference.
On the Covid response in Florida: Trump recently disparaged DeSantis’ leadership in the Covid response, because Florida’s outcomes were no better than anywhere else. And that is true. What DeSantis is credited for is that seeing that the restrictions were not getting any better results and lifting them. But DeSantis was not Kristi Noem–who never shut down South Dakota. DeSantis’ response was in line with what everyone was doing initially. And that is the point that Trump is making — that DeSantis cannot overly distinguish his Covid leadership from Trump. Net, net, Trump’s point is that DeSantis’ cannot paint himself as a Covid hero and Trump as ineffective when DeSantis was following the same path everyone else was on until it was obvious that there was no benefits to be derived, at which time he did something that was not in Trump’s constitutional powers to do.
Ed, the only way for a candidate to not get “more swipes” is for the candidate to agree to do everything that the Swamp requires.
Just look at Obama and his run for the Oval office in 2008. The PTB were quite happy to let him tell the public the evil behind Banking all through his final campaign stops in the MidWest that Oct.
It was absolutely fine with them that he picked on Big Finance and Wall Street with speeches peppered with fiery invective against those monetary forces.
Why was it fine?
Because they already knew that he had a childhood buddy named Tim Geithner to whom he would hand over full authority of the US economy once he was the president.
Geithner should have been being tried for RICO offenses in the way that he arranged things inside the Wall Street community Summer and Autumn of 2008. he then went on to outright lie to Congress.
But if you are doing the bidding of the Deep State, no worries!
Running against “Washington” and “the big power brokers” is as old as the hills.
Jimmy Carter ran against “Washington.” Ronald Reagan ran against “Washington.” Bill Clinton bragged that he was just a governor from Arkansas, the heartland, and therefore not part of the Washington DC mess.
George W. Bush ran in 2000 as a Governor of Texas who wasn’t part of all of the arguments over Bill Clinton’s impeachment while Al Gore ran his campaign as “the people vs the powerful.”
It’s all campaign rhetoric. The terms are vague enough that the candidate who talks this way can’t be pinned down on what exactly he will do once in office.
I have neither read nor heard DeSantis criticize Trump on COVID. Have You, @Rodin? If so could you cite it? I found this and he spoke about a Fauciism dystopia in regard to COVID policy, which, I think Trump understood as a criticism of himself, but the DeSantis comment came after Trump already stated critically that DeSantis closed down his State for a long time, which I think is pretty ballsy for Trump to say. It was him who closed down the entire country.
I didn’t realize that Gaetz and Stone were involved in getting Trump’s endorsement. I wasn’t into the weeds when it came to Trump’s sycophants beyond his immediate family, and a couple of others, Kellyanne Conway and Steve Bannon. I first became aware of Gaetz during the Kevin McCarthy speakership election in January. Gaetz and Stone do have a bit of unsavoriness to them.
I was aware that DeSantis did owe his first term election to Trump’s support and that anti-Trump purists like Jonah Goldberg held it against him.
Because of Trump, DeSantis was given an opportunity to govern Florida. He made the most of that opportunity and he did it without Trump’s help, and in the case of Covid, with Trump’s hindrance. I would also say that Trump’s example did a lot in changing how DeSantis conducted himself as a politician, and perhaps you can say he owes Trump for that. But DeSantis is smart enough to know when to be aggressive and when to turn it off. With DeSantis we’re getting the best of Trump without his considerable baggage.
So DeSantis should be grateful to Trump for the opportunity, but after he was given that he was on his own, and rightfully so. The loyalty owed Trump doesn’t include not running for the presidency.
It’s true that Kristi Noem and Brian Kemp of Georgia were ahead of DeSantis in opening things up in their states. But he was still ahead of most governors (and countries) when he also did. He took a lot of heat for it, and Trump criticized both DeSantis and Kemp over their Covid stances.
So if DeSantis waited until it was obvious that there were no benefits to remaining locked down, according to today’s Trump, it didn’t seem obvious to then President Trump at the time.
Trump hurt the economy by not taking a Noem-Kemp-DeSantis perspective on the lock downs. This removed a central bragging point from Trump’s reelection campaign: the strong economy.
The lock downs also created a larger desire for more stimulus spending. So, all in all, Trump’s leadership during the Covid-19 situation was poor and it probably cost him.
I am trying to summarize Stone’s points. My guess is that Trump is trying to blunt various claims that DeSantis has made (or is made by his allies) that, if accepted, makes DeSantis look better than Trump.
I think this is a fair criticism. About the best that can be said is that Trump got boxed in. He didn’t order shutdowns (governors did) but supported it for a short time and then tried to encourage reopening even as the Fauci/NIH/CDC/media/DNC was stoking fear. Everything he said that departed from the narrative was mercilessly ridiculed.
I especially agree with all your points. He’s intuitive and knows how to act. He owes Trump nothing.
I think he owes Trump, something, Susan, but he doesn’t owe Trump, his future, nor the future of the country. And I think he realizes that that is why, or at least one reason why, he has never been the first to criticize Trump. it has always been the other way around.
For Trump, loyalty only goes one way. Trump demands that people be loyal to him. But Trump doesn’t think he should be loyal in return.
I don’t really agree with that
I don’t agree that Trump is not loyal to those who are loyal to him. But his relationship with DeSantis is strange to me.