Building a Base

 

To be successful, politicians have to start with a base, a group of like-minded individuals that will be there for you through thick and thin. And then you have to grow that base – or at the very least – present a plausible alternative to your opponent. Donald Trump, the wealthy real estate developer had, and still has, a very unlikely base: poor to lower-middle-class whites and others who feel unrepresented in politics. And that includes over 9 million voters who had checked the box next to Barack Obama’s name just four years earlier.

It seems so improbable. A more astute observer than I totally understands. When he last hosted Saturday Night Live, Dave Chappelle described the situation thusly:

A lot of you don’t understand why Trump was so popular. But I get it, ’cause I hear it every day. He’s very loved.

And the reason he’s loved is because people in Ohio have never seen somebody like him. He’s what I call an honest liar. I’m not joking right now. He’s an honest liar.

That first debate — That first debate, I’d never seen anything like it. I’ve never seen a white male billionaire screaming at the top of his lungs. “This whole system is rigged!” he said. And across the stage was a white woman, Hillary Clinton, and Barack Obama sitting over there looking at him like, “No, it’s not.”

I said, “Now, wait a minute, bro. It’s what he said.”

And the moderator said, “Well, Mr. Trump, if, in fact, the system is rigged, as you suggest, what would be your evidence?” Remember what he said, bro? He said, “I know the system is rigged… because I use it.”

I said, “G-d damn!”

No one had ever heard someone say something that true. And then Hillary Clinton tried to punch him in the taxes. She said, “This man doesn’t pay his taxes.” He shot right back, “That makes me smart.”

And then he said, “If you want me to pay my taxes, then change the tax code, but I know you won’t because your friends and your donors enjoy the same tax breaks that I do.”

And with that, my friends, a star was born. No one had ever seen anything like that. No one had ever seen somebody come from inside of that house outside and tell all the commoners, “We’re doing everything that you think we are doing inside of that house.”

Then he just went right back in the house and started playing the game again.

That’s how Donald Trump created his base. Yeah, he’s a liar. But he’s our liar and not your liar. It seems to be a peculiar way to launch your way to the Oval Office, but it worked. Joe Biden, too, has lied his way to the Oval Office. But in a different way. He is what Chappelle would call the “dishonest liar.”

So we are back to where we were in numerous other election cycles as the party out of power. There will be a crowded field again. But Trump comes in with a base. Ron DeSantis, who is undeclared, is building a base by governing. Beyond those two, who else has a constituency? What’s their base?

Larry Hogan? His selling point is “bipartisan pragmatist.” You can probably sell out the local Olive Garden with that one. Mike Pompeo? Is there a big call for CIA Directors to run? And this morning, CBS News reported that John Bolton is “exploring” his 2024 options. Who is his natural constituency? Who else brings a base big enough to seriously contend?

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  1. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    John Bolton’s mustache seems to have a bigger constituency than John Bolton does.

    • #1
  2. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    And Larry Hogan’s base seems to be one lawyer in Arizona.

    • #2
  3. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    EJHill: Larry Hogan? His selling point is “bipartisan pragmatist.” You can probably sell out the local Olive Garden with that one.

    Doubtful.

    • #3
  4. Misthiocracy has never Member
    Misthiocracy has never
    @Misthiocracy

    EJHill: It seems so improbable. A more astute observer than I totally understands.

    It hasn’t been pointed out very often, but if you go back over the talking points and positions from the 1990s of folk like Michael Moore, Noam Chomsky, and progressive/labour publications like Mother Jones and Adbusters, there is a HECK of a lot of overlap with the talking points and positions of Donald Trump.

    I heard Michael Moore tepidly acknowledge this fact once, but that’s it.

    • #4
  5. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Misthiocracy has never (View Comment):

    EJHill: It seems so improbable. A more astute observer than I totally understands.

    It hasn’t been pointed out very often, but if you go back over the talking points and positions from the 1990s of folk like Michael Moore, Noam Chomsky, and progressive/labour publications like Mother Jones and Adbusters, there is a HECK of a lot of overlap with the talking points and positions of Donald Trump.

    I heard Michael Moore tepidly acknowledge this fact once, but that’s it.

    Jonah Golberg and many others agreed with Trump too, until he got elected.

    • #5
  6. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    EJHill: Larry Hogan? His selling point is “bipartisan pragmatist.” You can probably sell out the local Olive Garden with that one.

    Just sell out period.

    • #6
  7. GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Malpropisms Reagan
    GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Malpropisms
    @GLDIII

    kedavis (View Comment):

    And Larry Hogan’s base seems to be one lawyer in Arizona.

    I voted for Hogan twice, and even sent him a few shekels, but I would not pull the lever for him on a national level. What is acceptable in a deep blue state like Maryland is not going to hack it for our country’s restoration after the Obama-Biden scourging.

    • #7
  8. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    kedavis (View Comment):

    And Larry Hogan’s base seems to be one lawyer in Arizona.

    Well, let’s talk about Larry Hogan.  From 2019 when Hogan was being inaugurated for his second term, George Will wrote:

    “America’s most improbably popular governor, a Republican beginning his second term in perhaps the bluest state, resembles a beer keg with an attitude. Stocky and blunt, Larry Hogan, whose job approval is in the high 70s, has won twice in the state with the highest percentage of African Americans of any state outside the Deep South. In 2016, Maryland voted more emphatically for Hillary Clinton — by 26 percentage points — than all but three other states. In 2018, Hogan was reelected receiving a majority of women’s votes, and 28 percent of the African American vote while running against a former head of the NAACP. Hogan won while almost 50 percent of Marylanders were saying they would vote against all Republicans to express contempt for President Trump. So, he won against a huge blue wave in a deep blue state.”

    If memory serves Hogan is only the first Republican to serve two terms as a Maryland Governor in over 50 years, and only the second one in over 100 years.  I think he would do quite well in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire.  What do you call a Republican who can win those states?  Um, “Mr. President.”  

    Here is my post on George Will’s column on Larry Hogan:  https://ricochet.com/598420/george-will-on-maryland-governor-larry-hogan/ .

    Here is my post about Larry Hogan’s autobiography:  https://ricochet.com/785295/book-report-larry-hogans-still-standing/.  Like me, Larry Hogan lost all of his hair when he had chemotherapy for cancer.  

    • #8
  9. Bishop Wash Member
    Bishop Wash
    @BishopWash

    GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Ma… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    And Larry Hogan’s base seems to be one lawyer in Arizona.

    I voted for Hogan twice, and even sent him a few shekels, but I would not pull the level for him on a national lever. What is acceptable in a deep blue state like Maryland is not going to hack it for our country’s restoration after the Obama-Biden scourging.

    I liked him on I Dream of Jeannie. Not all actors make good politicians. 

    • #9
  10. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Bishop Wash (View Comment):

    GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Ma… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    And Larry Hogan’s base seems to be one lawyer in Arizona.

    I voted for Hogan twice, and even sent him a few shekels, but I would not pull the level for him on a national lever. What is acceptable in a deep blue state like Maryland is not going to hack it for our country’s restoration after the Obama-Biden scourging.

    I liked him on I Dream of Jeannie. Not all actors make good politicians.

    • #10
  11. GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Malpropisms Reagan
    GLDIII Purveyor of Splendid Malpropisms
    @GLDIII

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    And Larry Hogan’s base seems to be one lawyer in Arizona.

    Well, let’s talk about Larry Hogan. From 2019 when Hogan was being inaugurated for his second term, George Will wrote:

    “America’s most improbably popular governor, a Republican beginning his second term in perhaps the bluest state, resembles a beer keg with an attitude. Stocky and blunt, Larry Hogan, whose job approval is in the high 70s, has won twice in the state with the highest percentage of African Americans of any state outside the Deep South. In 2016, Maryland voted more emphatically for Hillary Clinton — by 26 percentage points — than all but three other states. In 2018, Hogan was reelected receiving a majority of women’s votes, and 28 percent of the African American vote while running against a former head of the NAACP. Hogan won while almost 50 percent of Marylanders were saying they would vote against all Republicans to express contempt for President Trump. So, he won against a huge blue wave in a deep blue state.”

    If memory serves Hogan is only the first Republican to serve two terms as a Maryland Governor in over 50 years, and only the second one in over 100 years. I think he would do quite well in Virginia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin and New Hampshire. What do you call a Republican who can win those states? Um, “Mr. President.”

    Here is my post on George Will’s column on Larry Hogan: https://ricochet.com/598420/george-will-on-maryland-governor-larry-hogan/ .

    Here is my post about Larry Hogan’s autobiography: https://ricochet.com/785295/book-report-larry-hogans-still-standing/. Like me, Larry Hogan lost all of his hair when he had chemotherapy for cancer.

    Hogan was able to win because in a blue state like Maryland there is no culling effect to weed out truly terrible Democrats. He was unopposed in the Republican primaries after two over tax soaked terms of O’Malley, who was using us as beating board for a national run (you all remember his challenge against Hillary? Why yes). His opponent was an early runner in the minority woke sweepstakes (think a male version of Kaaamala). Hogan was lucky being in the right place at the right time.

    He was competent and early on he rolled back many of the egregious fees and taxes that O’Malley leverage on us on his way out. That earned him a second chance at the apple, and once again the Dem’s put forth another incompetent contestant (who was so bad I cannot even remember who it was). On issues of guns, life, schools, and reducing government he was a not a persuasive arbiter, his one sole improvement was getting the MVA’s going from horrible performance to tolerable but not cheaper (mostly by computerizing a good chunk of the services thus removing the need to see them in person).

    He was continually outmatched on structural taxation issues by the overwhelmingly large Dem majorities in the legislature (he made a big deal of eliminating the income tax on retirees, because they are leaving along with the millionaire in droves, but it amounted to nothing once the details were reviewed). So triangulation was not his forte’ and in summation he was more competent in a sea of dumb Dems.

    So Gary, as someone on the ground and having observed his performance on a weekly basis, and have found him wanting, I suggest you refrain from telling us all how the weather is from 2200 miles away.

    Yes I supported him, but again it is the perennial Hobbs choice of picking the lesser of varying evils, and at a national level he will be fried and for reasonable rational that for fixing our nation we can do better. If we are going to be choosing amongst Governors that have performed, DeSantis, or even Kemp is a way better selection. I don’t want anyone who has not held some sort of executive position.

    The Presidency is not for beginners.

    PS quoting George Will is no longer a plus for any real conservatives, he cashiered out during the Obama years.

    • #11
  12. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Let me rephrase my answer.  I am quoting two paragraphs from a comment in a different post:

    Ron DeSantis is not my first choice.  But Liz Cheney has NO chance, and Larry Hogan has only a limited shot.  I also like Glenn Youngkin and Tim Scott, but think that it would take a straight flush for them to win.

    But that is not the point.  After January 6th, the riot, the fake electors, the Trump Big Lie, and all of it, I will do anything and everything legal to stop Trump at any cost.  That is my prime directive, Stop Trump.  That is the hill I am willing to die on.  

    __________

    How many Republicans are there like me?  I don’t know.  A minority of Republicans to be sure, but a growing number of “Never Again Trumpers” are out there as we saw in Arizona’s 2022 election, and it is nigh impossible for a Republican to win in swing states with a dedicated minority of Republicans working against the candidate.  We aren’t content with sitting out the election, we are literally voting for whoever will defeat Trump in the general election.  And our number is growing.

    • #12
  13. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    kedavis (View Comment):

    John Bolton’s mustache seems to have a bigger constituency than John Bolton does.

    He might have the walrus vote. 

    • #13
  14. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Let me rephrase my answer. I am quoting two paragraphs from a comment in a different post:

    Ron DeSantis is not my first choice. But Liz Cheney has NO chance, and Larry Hogan has only a limited shot. I also like Glenn Youngkin and Tim Scott, but think that it would take a straight flush for them to win.

    But that is not the point. After January 6th, the riot, the fake electors, the Trump Big Lie, and all of it, I will do anything and everything legal to stop Trump at any cost. That is my prime directive, Stop Trump. That is the hill I am willing to die on.

    __________

    How many Republicans are there like me? I don’t know. A minority of Republicans to be sure, but a growing number of “Never Again Trumpers” are out there as we saw in Arizona’s 2022 election, and it is nigh impossible for a Republican to win in swing states with a dedicated minority of Republicans working against the candidate. We aren’t content with sitting out the election, we are literally voting for whoever will defeat Trump in the general election. And our number is growing.

    Delusional and factually wrong as always.

    • #14
  15. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Bolton, Pompeo, Beto, Stacy Abrams, etc., are showing that running for office is personally profitable.  That is the only thing that explains why these people run.

    • #15
  16. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    That is my prime directive, Stop Trump.  That is the hill I am willing to die on.  .

    Yeah, we noticed.  

    • #16
  17. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    I can’t imagine that Biden will be the Democrat candidate but if he is, Trump will probably run against him and Republicans have to oppose Biden no matter who is the candidate.  If Biden isn’t, it’ll be De Santis and he also deserve across the board support.  I don’t think most democrats or radically anti Trump Republicans understand what is going on.   The Chinese are in charge along with a bunch of very narrow fools and they don’t understand that a vast diverse, deep, extensive capitalist system can’t be run by the top.  These guys will destroy the economy.  China will shrink as well but not before the world economy shrinks rather drastically,  concentrates at the top and erodes rather quickly at the bottom and middle.  Obviously none of us can know the future, but we can know a bit about the past and the rest of the world.

    • #17
  18. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    Skyler (View Comment):

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    That is my prime directive, Stop Trump. That is the hill I am willing to die on. .

    Yeah, we noticed.

    Thank goodness.  I was afraid that no one knew how I feel about DJT.

    • #18
  19. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    EJHill: Larry Hogan?

    Who?

    EJHill: Mike Pompeo?

    At least I’ve heard of him . . .

    EJHill: John Bolton

    He’s the guy with the bushy ‘stache, right?  Nope . . .

    • #19
  20. MWD B612 "Dawg" Member
    MWD B612 "Dawg"
    @danok1

    Stad (View Comment):

    EJHill: John Bolton

    He’s the guy with the bushy ‘stache, right?  Nope . . .

    And he’s never seen a war he didn’t want us to jump in to.

    • #20
  21. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    EJHill: John Bolton

    He’s the guy with the bushy ‘stache, right? Nope . . .

    And he’s never seen a war he didn’t want us to jump in to.

    I mean, if the mustache runs with him as veep maybe.

    • #21
  22. Stina Inactive
    Stina
    @CM

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    EJHill: John Bolton

    He’s the guy with the bushy ‘stache, right? Nope . . .

    And he’s never seen a war he didn’t want us to jump in to.

    I mean, if the mustache runs with him as veep maybe.

    A mustache with a life of its own would be hard to pass up.

    • #22
  23. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Stina (View Comment):

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    MWD B612 "Dawg" (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):

    EJHill: John Bolton

    He’s the guy with the bushy ‘stache, right? Nope . . .

    And he’s never seen a war he didn’t want us to jump in to.

    I mean, if the mustache runs with him as veep maybe.

    A mustache with a life of its own would be hard to pass up.

    As long at it was born here. 

    • #23
  24. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Let me rephrase my answer. I am quoting two paragraphs from a comment in a different post:

    Ron DeSantis is not my first choice. But Liz Cheney has NO chance, and Larry Hogan has only a limited shot. I also like Glenn Youngkin and Tim Scott, but think that it would take a straight flush for them to win.

    But that is not the point. After January 6th, the riot, the fake electors, the Trump Big Lie, and all of it, I will do anything and everything legal to stop Trump at any cost. That is my prime directive, Stop Trump. That is the hill I am willing to die on.

    __________

    How many Republicans are there like me? I don’t know. A minority of Republicans to be sure, but a growing number of “Never Again Trumpers” are out there as we saw in Arizona’s 2022 election, and it is nigh impossible for a Republican to win in swing states with a dedicated minority of Republicans working against the candidate. We aren’t content with sitting out the election, we are literally voting for whoever will defeat Trump in the general election. And our number is growing.

    We will not be extorted by the threats from Trump haters. A majority will pick the candidate based on their wishes. I will neither vote to please you nor to prevent foolish people from throwing the country away by voting for Democrats. And some point, it might be time to go ahead and split away from the blue states. Two years of Biden can help us predict what 8 years of leadership by the radical left will do to the country. As far as Jan 6 goes, the next President should free all the Jan 6 protestors. They have been in jail long enough. Then he should have a team review every case and drop all but the most serious charges. 

    • #24
  25. OmegaPaladin Moderator
    OmegaPaladin
    @OmegaPaladin

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Ron DeSantis is not my first choice.  But Liz Cheney has NO chance, and Larry Hogan has only a limited shot.  I also like Glenn Youngkin and Tim Scott, but think that it would take a straight flush for them to win.

    But that is not the point.  After January 6th, the riot, the fake electors, the Trump Big Lie, and all of it, I will do anything and everything legal to stop Trump at any cost.  That is my prime directive, Stop Trump.  That is the hill I am willing to die on.  

    What is Liz Cheney’s executive experience?  If you had asked me about her in the lead-up to 2016, pre-Trump, I would have been confused.  Why her, with the baggage of the Cheney name and a decent but uninspired record?   I think you are overestimating just how much people hate Trump.   I think the vast majority of people would prefer good policies and governing experience over a record of opposing Trump.   I’m surprised you didn’t take Gov. Kemp or former Gov. Ducey over a representative.   After all, I seem to recall you are a bit fond of a certain California governor turned president…

    I’ll give you Glenn Youngkin.  I don’t think he’s the best option, but he’s pretty sharp and used to dealing with hostile press and angry democrats.  DeSantis is delivering high quality governance and a strong backbone.  Basically, Trump without the annoying parts.

    • #25
  26. OmegaPaladin Moderator
    OmegaPaladin
    @OmegaPaladin

    Gary Robbins (View Comment):

    Ron DeSantis is not my first choice.  But Liz Cheney has NO chance, and Larry Hogan has only a limited shot.  I also like Glenn Youngkin and Tim Scott, but think that it would take a straight flush for them to win.

    But that is not the point.  After January 6th, the riot, the fake electors, the Trump Big Lie, and all of it, I will do anything and everything legal to stop Trump at any cost.  That is my prime directive, Stop Trump.  That is the hill I am willing to die on.  

    What is Liz Cheney’s executive experience?  If you had asked me about her in the lead-up to 2016, pre-Trump, I would have been confused.  Why her, with the baggage of the Cheney name and a decent but uninspired record?   I think you are overestimating just how much people hate Trump.   I think the vast majority of people would prefer good policies and governing experience over a record of opposing Trump.   I’m surprised you didn’t take Gov. Kemp or former Gov. Ducey over a representative.   After all, I seem to recall you are a bit fond of a certain California governor turned president…

    I’ll give you Glenn Youngkin.  I don’t think he’s the best option, but he’s pretty sharp and used to dealing with hostile press and angry democrats.  DeSantis is delivering high quality governance and a strong backbone.  Basically, Trump without the annoying parts.

    • #26
  27. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    OmegaPaladin (View Comment):
    DeSantis is delivering high quality governance and a strong backbone.  Basically, Trump without the annoying parts.

    Until the media tells people he has those annoying parts, and then some.

    • #27
  28. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    Enough Repubiclans hate Trump and will vote for destruction of America just for that to sink him.

    • #28
  29. Skyler Coolidge
    Skyler
    @Skyler

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Enough Repubiclans hate Trump and will vote for destruction of America just for that to sink him.

    We are not a cult of personality.  I think the American people are more interested in ideology than a personality.  To a certain extent we shouldn’t even care too much whom the party nominates, as long as that person complies with our general ideology,

    The media and the communists demonize.our candidate?  Fine.  Go with another.  Trump is not our only answer. There are others who can lead the party.

    In WWII, had someone assassinated Hitler, the war would have likely ended much sooner.  In the war on terror, we keep assassinating leaders with no significant difference.  The fanatical Muslims are not in a cult of personality, they are an ideological movement. Each leader removed is quickly replaced by someone with the same agenda.

    If Trump isn’t nominated, then any other person supporting the Tea Party movement should be able to step in the fray.  Trump was an amazing president in many ways, but I’m not married to him.

    • #29
  30. Red Herring Coolidge
    Red Herring
    @EHerring

    Bryan G. Stephens (View Comment):

    Enough Repubiclans hate Trump and will vote for destruction of America just for that to sink him.

    That is why I have no party loyalty, just loyalty towards my country and values.

    • #30
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