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Are We the Baddies, Part 2: US Meddling in Ukraine and Crimea
I’ve been holding out on you since September when this issue of Hillsdale’s Imprimis came out: Complications of the Ukraine War, by Christopher Caldwell, senior fellow at the Claremont Institute. Now that I have time to clear out my tabs, you get to learn what I did back then.
If you had to give a one-word answer to what this Ukraine War is about, you would probably say Crimea. Crimea is a peninsula jutting out into the middle of the Black Sea. It’s where the great powers of Europe fought the bloodiest war of the century between Napoleon and World War I. It is a defensive superweapon. The country that controls it dominates the Black Sea and can project its military force into Europe, the Middle East, and even the steppes of Eurasia. And since the 1700s, that country has been Russia. Crimea has been the home of Russia’s warm water fleet for 250 years. It is the key to Russia’s southern defenses.
I admit, I’m not following events in Ukraine as closely as many here on Ricochet. But, as I understand it, Ukraine is committed to fighting not just to repel the Russian invasion, but to recover Crimea. This is a solid guarantee for the prolongation of the war indefinitely. Russia simply cannot — will not — let go of the all-important strategic peninsula of Crimea.
Much of the turmoil began under the Bush 43 administration — surprise! — with US election interference, and exacerbated by the Obama administration — surprise, surprise!! — by meddling in the trade deal negotiated between Ukraine and the EU, and vehemently opposed by Russia.
The previous year (2013), Ukrainian diplomats had negotiated a free trade deal with the European Union that would have cut out Russia. Russia then outbid the EU with its own deal—which included $15 billion in incentives for Ukraine and continued naval basing rights for Russia—and Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovich signed it. U.S.-backed protests broke out in Kiev’s main square, the Maidan, and in cities across the country. According to a speech made at the time by a State Department official, the U.S. had by that time spent $5 billion to influence Ukraine’s politics. And, considering that Ukraine then had a lower per capita income than Cuba, Jamaica, or Namibia, $5 billion could buy a lot of influence. An armory was raided, shootings near the Maidan left dozens of protesters dead, Yanukovich fled the country, and the U.S. played the central role in setting up a successor government.
The other tidbit that stands out in this piece is this:
In a referendum in January 1991, 93 percent of the citizens of Crimea voted for autonomy from Ukraine. In 1994, 83 percent voted for the establishment of a dual Crimean/Russian citizenship. We’ll leave aside the referendum held after the Russians arrived in 2014, which resulted in a similar percentage but remains controversial.
As long as Ukraine insists on controlling Crimea and even the Russophilic eastern Ukraine, I don’t see a possible resolution to the conflict. I oppose another (Bush) forever war and believe if the US meddles further, it should be to force Ukraine to the negotiating table. For its own sake, as well as ours.
Published in General
Honestly I think many of them would prefer no NATO option for Ukraine and cheap Russian energy available again.
Blowing up Nordstream may have clarified their real options, I’ll admit.
I think there’s something wrong with their economies and regulations and what-not if it’s cheaper to build Nordstream(s) than to produce their own.
Do you actually read what you’re writing?
If Nato were the defensive alliance you claim, why would Russia or anyone else feel threatened? Because Naio established and maintains an offensive cybersecurity unit since the late 1990s? Because Nato has expanded after giving express assurances it wouldn’t to countries that express their Russian revsnchism? Because the American foreign policy establishment has been dominated by naturalized Eastern Europeans with the same revsnchism? Those crazy Russians.
How does Germany produce natural gas if it has none? And natural gas is important to Germany as a chemical for its manufacturing, not merely electricity. The US has blocked alternative natural gas pipelines from the Middle East, which would be their other option. Why would the US do this? To promote LNG at 6 times the price, making Europe noncompetitive. But of course, American motives are pure.
Germany may well come to the realization that it’s interests don’t lie to the west. Germany has been dominated since World War II, by a western outlook, but Ostpolitik may make a comeback. The west has little to offer if Germany wants to keep its industrial base.
Yes, of course, Russia has been the aggressor. I would like an acknowledgement that the US has had something to do with destabilizing the situation, from Bush to Biden.
Maybe take a look at the Church’s just war doctrine and check your superiority. A defensive war is justified so long as there’s a reasonable chance of success. Do you think there’s a reasonable chance of success, or a reasonable chance of (nuclear) escalation? How many more lives and how much of people’s wellbeing are you prepared to sacrifice for the cause before we (the US) encourage the parties to come to terms? I think we’re past that point. Obviously you differ, but that hardly makes your position morally superior.
Are you mind-reading here? How do you know Russia’s/Putin’s intentions? How do you know how much longer Putin will even live? And who will succeed him? And what their intentions may be?
There’s a lot of forecasting going on that I find about as reliable as climate computer models. In other words, not very.
Russia hasn’t seen it that way historically (read Caldwell’s piece). And with the US pushing for NATO assimilation right up to the Russian border (and including large numbers of Russophilic, Russian-speaking people) even I can see why Russia might consider NATO an aggressor.
What about the 80% plus that prefer Russia to Ukraine? They should just migrate? Clear out of the cities? Empty out Crimea and eastern Ukraine? That doesn’t seem. . . reasonable. 80%+ is not 25%.
Yeah, let’s keep funneling billions to this construction project masquerading as a country. Zelenskys’s filthy whore of a wife needs to go on more $40,000 designer clothes shopping sprees. “Duuurr, I’m a fiscal conservative!”
Arguing with a Fox News bot about Ukraine is like trying to argue with the TV. They’re gonna repeat what they heard as if its their own thoughts. You’re going to hear the exact same talking points. But at least with the TV, you don’t expect it to engage with you. So don’t even bother.
Ukraine isn’t a real country. This isn’t Poland or Lithuania we’re talking about where there’s centuries of culture and established, functioning political structures. Bush & Baker were right when they told the Ukrainians to knock it off with the neo-Nazi nationalist garbage. Ukraine’s borders are administrative leftovers from the USSR. They make no sense. Just like how the borders in Central Asia don’t make much sense, but Fox News hasn’t told you to care about those flare-ups yet. Yes conservatives, let’s fight to preserve those old SSR administrative lines! Communist territorial integrity!
And as far as the tens of billions we keep sending them… they’re not even grateful for it. Zelensky the sewer rat keeps whining that no amount will ever be enough. It’s our patriotic duty to funnel all of our money through Raytheon to his pockets. He’s no different than the average American welfare scum. They’re not grateful that 25-30% of my paycheck goes towards supporting their drug habit. No, it makes them hate me even more, because if it were up to them, they would get 100% of my paycheck. Screw that. You and your government are not entitled to a cent of my earnings, Zelensky. I guess “No taxation without representation” was just an empty slogan that conservatives only parroted to differentiate themselves from the blue team.
And just wait. Ten years from now, some Mujahideen/Azov clown will be blowing up a school in Connecticut because he’s mad that we destroyed his country. News guy: “his motive appears unclear.” Because that’s exactly what happens every single time we start funding one of these “gray areas.” No thanks, I don’t want any part of that. Wipe this country off the face of the map. NAME NAMES. Put every corporate welfare scum and politician that benefited from this on trial. Execute Zelensky in a street putsch.
#deathtoukraine
That’s the Ukrainian intention, ethnic cleansing. Repression of language, politics and religion.
I wonder who’s responsible for that? Would be an act of war.
And in the meantime, people suffer and die for what? What does “victory” look like? What happens to Russophiles in Ukraine and Crimea if Ukraine wins a total victory? Do supporters of the war get the mass exodus they seem to want? Or do Russophiles get brought up on charges of treason and there’s a different kind of “mass” that happens? — slaughter?
This is the hubris and ignorance of complexity involved in US meddling.
I think there is hubris all around. The US should stop urging Ukraine to do anything. Whether or not Ukraine wants to recover the Russian occupied areas or to cede them to Russia is Ukraine’s decision not ours. Pressuring them to accept the forced partition of their country is every bit as interventionist as is pressuring them to fight on.
What we should focus on is what’s best for us. If Ukraine wants to fight, is it in our best interest to support that effort? Or not? If they decide to negotiate a settlement that’s fine.
I agree it is Ukraine’s decision. But, don’t you think our ongoing funding and arming is at least encouraging Ukraine to fight on? I’m only advocating that Ukraine be encouraged to go to the bargaining table. How a settlement comes out is anyone’s guess.
No, unlike Hunter’s laptop, it is demonstrably false, more like Putin’s rumored defense of traditional values & his military genius.
Doctor, heal thyself…
Not “real countries” don’t destroy the 2nd most powerful army in the world- thereby rendering the Russian army not only not the 2nd most powerful army in the world, but barely the 2nd most powerful army in Ukraine ( Wagner group may surpass the the Russian army soon).
Everybody spies on everybody, friend or foe. You’re naïve if you think otherwise. “Offensive cybersecurity” is a contradictory term. Security means security, by definition it is not offensive. As to your other points, all the former Russian states all wanted to desparately join NATO. They understood the Russian threat. Way better than you.
End of discussion. Russia is the aggressor and needs to withdraw. Their aggression has been going on for over a decade in Ukraine.
If you are referring to after the cold war all the financial aid the US has pumped into Russia, all the business ventures to make Russia a livable modern nation, giving them favorite nation status, all the purchase of natural resources we make from them, all the money we supplied to their space industry, even placing our space industry on hold for decades for them, even buying their outdated weapons so as to not flood the world market, even allowing Russia’s third world economy into the G7 countries for years to sooth their defeated egos, then I see how destabilizing the US has been. Bogus.
I’m not mind reading. I’m listening to the former soviet states in Europe that desperately wanted to join NATO and the other former Soviet states that want little to do with Russia.
I don’t know if the US pushed for expansion of NATO, but I do know how desperately the former Soviet countries wanted to join NATO.
80% of Ukrainians want to join Russia? Where do you get that? What I’m seeing is that 99% of Ukrainians are fighting to the death to prevent being under Russian domination.
The war ends when Ukraine capitulates. It’s their freedom. They have to decide what its worth. And I would not associate myself with American haters in providing the standard anti American line of “American colonialism.” It’s not becoming a conservative.
Hunh?
Manny, you have some high dudgeon going. I’ve said absolutely zero about “American colonialism.” I think you’ve lost any sense of nuance and perspective.
And you know that when you devolve to using mindless progressive slurs like “haters” you’ve lost the argument.
But Russia was totally unprovoked. And Ukraine is totally without fault. As is the US and its allies.
Mkay. Whatever.
And this war was slated to begin in 2017. This was long before Russia became “the aggressor” and attacked Ukraine.
Listen to John McCain and Lindsay Graham in 2016 in Ukraine. “2017 will be the year of offense.”
This sort of thing make me want to send Lindsey Graham into combat.
I don’t know if eastern, Russian-speaking Ukrainians have been polled, but in Crimea:
And