The lights are going out in Europe

 

And Germany has been the bellwether.  Back in the early 2000s, Chancellor Angela Merkel and her party made the momentous decision to begin the energy transition from “fossil fuels” to “renewables” as quickly as they could.  The scare-quotes around both terms are on purpose, because fossil fuels are not fossils (who is to say that the geologic processes which created oil and gas are not still working on Earth?), and renewables are not either green, clean, or necessarily renewable.

Europeans decided decades ago that the entire world needs to immediately change from reliable oil, natural gas, and nuclear power; to intermittent, unreliable wind, solar, and geothermal power.  Germany has been the fastest to make this transition, and most of the rest of Europe has been following.  Many European countries shut down their nuclear power plants after the Fukushima disaster in Japan in 2011.  When I read about the changes going on in Europe, I said to myself, “Europeans, prepare to freeze in the dark this winter.”

I wasn’t too far wrong.  German citizens pay the world’s highest prices for their electricity today, and the rest of Europe is joining them.  One of the huge mistakes Angela Merkel made was the decision to mostly rely on Russia to supply them with natural gas for heating, and as a feedstock for such necessaries as agricultural fertilizer and plastics. We all know how that is turning out lately, with the Russian aggression against Ukraine resulting in sanctions upon Russia and the cutting-off of gas supplies through the NordStream Pipeline to Germany.  I just had to laugh out loud when I read about Germans relying on solar power — in a country in Northern Europe that doesn’t get that much sunshine!  They are further north than Seattle, and we aren’t known for all our sunny days.  Here’s what one business site has to say about Europe and energy:

  • Europe’s worsening energy crisis will cause economies to contract in 2023, according to Amrita Sen, director of research at Energy Aspects.
  • Due to higher natural gas prices, European gross domestic product will decline by 1.4% next year, she told Bloomberg TV.
  • “The burden of high gas and oil prices will actually mean that we are going to see some steep contraction in the European economies next year.”
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  1. RushBabe49 Thatcher
    RushBabe49
    @RushBabe49

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Sanctions on Russia was simply a compounding stupid move. The EU should never have done it.

    Food is also going to be increasingly problematic. This summer has seen drought and high temperatures. Combine that with requirements for 30% less fertilizer use by mandate and less fertilizer manufacturing and food will be hit hard.

    What the EU should not have done was to cede so much of their energy and food needs to places like Russia.

    Russia has the supply.

    What do you think that the Europeans should have done differently? If Russia had been cut out of the global energy markets years ago, the problems raised in the OP would have occurred sooner.

    I can think of a couple of things that the Europeans could have done to make themselves somewhat less dependent on Russian energy supplies. They could have maintained, and even expanded, their nuclear energy capacity. They could have kept using coal. (As I understand it, Europe has a pretty good supply of coal, though I haven’t checked the details lately.)

     

     

    The Europeans could have developed their native fracking industry. Suitable shale deposits are found on every continent just waiting to be tapped. But it will never happen  while environmentalists hold so much power. 

    • #31
  2. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    but yes they’re already restarting coal plants that they shouldn’t have shut down in the first place, and perhaps begun tearing down already…  and yes they should have built more nuclear too.

    Be more like France, rest of Europe!

    • #32
  3. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    RushBabe49 (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have developed their native fracking industry. Suitable shale deposits are found on every continent just waiting to be tapped. But it will never happen  while environmentalists hold so much power. 

    Not sure about the fracking, but one of the take aways from this is that places need to have some level of basic energy and food security within their borders.  Dependence (I’d add security dependence) is a vulnerability.

    • #33
  4. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    More expensive than what they’re facing now?

    • #34
  5. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    More expensive than what they’re facing now?

    Right now they’re facing a perfect storm.  Europe’s post-Soviet contradictions have come to a head.

    • #35
  6. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    More expensive than what they’re facing now?

    Right now they’re facing a perfect storm. Europe’s post-Soviet contradictions have come to a head.

    A storm that could have been avoided, and they were offered an alternative but they turned it down.

    • #36
  7. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    More expensive than what they’re facing now?

    Right now they’re facing a perfect storm. Europe’s post-Soviet contradictions have come to a head.

    A storm that could have been avoided, and they were offered an alternative but they turned it down.

    They went from [February] Germany basically saying Ukraine wouldn’t be joining NATO to [today] an economic crisis due to sanctioning Russia’s energy exports.  I don’t think Europe truly had the freedom to really make that choice about Ukraine and NATO.

    • #37
  8. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    More expensive than what they’re facing now?

    Right now they’re facing a perfect storm. Europe’s post-Soviet contradictions have come to a head.

    A storm that could have been avoided, and they were offered an alternative but they turned it down.

    They went from [February] Germany basically saying Ukraine wouldn’t be joining NATO to [today] an economic crisis due to sanctioning Russia’s energy exports. I don’t think Europe truly had the freedom to really make that choice about Ukraine and NATO.

    Not the point.  They were warned – most recently by Trump, and they laughed – not to rely on Russian energy.  They started down that road way before Ukraine.

    • #38
  9. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    kedavis (View Comment):

    A storm that could have been avoided, and they were offered an alternative but they turned it down.

    They went from [February] Germany basically saying Ukraine wouldn’t be joining NATO to [today] an economic crisis due to sanctioning Russia’s energy exports. I don’t think Europe truly had the freedom to really make that choice about Ukraine and NATO.

    Not the point.  They were warned – most recently by Trump, and they laughed – not to rely on Russian energy.  They started down that road way before Ukraine.

    Oh absolutely.  They should either have fully shouldered the burden of their own security, and then been able to stick to their guns about Ukraine and NATO , or they should have taken on the cost of more expensive energy.  Today they’ve got the worst of both worlds.

    • #39
  10. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Sanctions on Russia was simply a compounding stupid move. The EU should never have done it.

    Food is also going to be increasingly problematic. This summer has seen drought and high temperatures. Combine that with requirements for 30% less fertilizer use by mandate and less fertilizer manufacturing and food will be hit hard.

    What the EU should not have done was to cede so much of their energy and food needs to places like Russia.

    Russia has the supply.

    What do you think that the Europeans should have done differently? If Russia had been cut out of the global energy markets years ago, the problems raised in the OP would have occurred sooner.

    I can think of a couple of things that the Europeans could have done to make themselves somewhat less dependent on Russian energy supplies. They could have maintained, and even expanded, their nuclear energy capacity. They could have kept using coal. (As I understand it, Europe has a pretty good supply of coal, though I haven’t checked the details lately.)

    LNG ports so they could control how much gas they are buying from Russia. They also shouldn’t have wasted so much money on wind turbines and solar panels.

    Personally, I have always been skeptical that clean coal was a great big terrible thing when you consider everything, as in what is happening now. Put up comprehensive compact nuke plants and then get rid of the coal.

    • #40
  11. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Zafar (View Comment):
    LNG is more expensive than piped gas.

    Russia is literally sending them as little natural gas as they can so they can’t store it. You don’t have any other option than to think strategically about energy. 

    Personally, I don’t think we ever should have traded with China and buying energy is some thing that everybody should be leery about when it comes to Russia. It is just flat out stupid for the west to not do everything t can to keep fossil fuels in a certain price range.

    • #41
  12. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):
    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism…

    LNG is more expensive than piped gas. (Also Russia isn’t Communist post Soviet collapse.)

    More expensive than what they’re facing now?

    Right now they’re facing a perfect storm. Europe’s post-Soviet contradictions have come to a head.

    The West has printed too much money while at the same time restricting fossil fuel production. The whole industry is about seven years behind on capital investment. 

    Central planning never works.

    • #42
  13. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

     

     

     

    • #43
  14. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):
    LNG is more expensive than piped gas.

    Russia is literally sending them as little natural gas as they can so they can’t store it.

    While Europe (as part of the West) is sanctioning Russian oil.  Do you think there’s a connection?

    You don’t have any other option than to think strategically about energy.

    Something notably lacking from the imposition of sanctions.  Or maybe it was decided that Europe would have to take one for the team?

    Personally, I don’t think we ever should have traded with China and buying energy is some thing that everybody should be leery about when it comes to Russia. It is just flat out stupid for the west to not do everything t can to keep fossil fuels in a certain price range.

    Yeah. Sanctions against Russia raised global prices.  ??

    • #44
  15. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Zafar (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    Zafar (View Comment):
    LNG is more expensive than piped gas.

    Russia is literally sending them as little natural gas as they can so they can’t store it.

    While Europe (as part of the West) is sanctioning Russian oil. Do you think there’s a connection?

    You don’t have any other option than to think strategically about energy.

    Something notably lacking from the imposition of sanctions. Or maybe it was decided that Europe would have to take one for the team?

    Personally, I don’t think we ever should have traded with China and buying energy is some thing that everybody should be leery about when it comes to Russia. It is just flat out stupid for the west to not do everything t can to keep fossil fuels in a certain price range.

    Yeah. Sanctions against Russia raised global prices. ??

    If you want to get Russia, you increase the supply of oil. Sanctions just help them on net. See “Doomberg” interviews. 

    Furthermore, what is “Doomberg” wrong on? Nothing.

    • #45
  16. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    LNG is cheaper than the pipeline gas you can’t buy.

    Here endeth the lesson.

    • #46
  17. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    Personally, I have always been skeptical that clean coal was a great big terrible thing when you consider everything,

    First you have to believe that C02 is a threat to the planet. I happen to believe the idea is total rubbish (I’m a gardener and I know that CO2 is plant food! That’s why nutters like me talk to the plants). The models have not been predictive of temperature, which means they’re rubbish too. 

    Climate is an enormously complex system that we’ve barely begun to understand. Fossil fuels, on the other hand, have been God’s gift to humanity. Sure, build nuke plants except in areas where earthquakes and tsunamis are abundant. And remember, like wind farms, they’re going to have to be in somebody’s backyard because we can’t afford the power loss over long distance transmission. And, unlike wind farms, nobody wants to deface the national parks (remote areas of beauty) with even the relatively small footprint of nuke plants.

    But, we can’t do away with fossil fuels. The planet will be just fine (or otherwise do what it’s going to do). It’s people that won’t survive the green agenda. Lots and lots of people. Crop yields falling off (back to pre-industrial levels), products (including food) unable to be transported, all the plastics used in every imaginable industry from electronics to medicine. . . We’d be living back in the stone age. Those of us who survive.

    • #47
  18. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):
    First you have to believe that C02 is a threat to the planet.

    I wasn’t clear. I was just talking about how coal genuinely does pollute more. The thing is, when they are printing money and coal is low priced and has all kinds of logistical advantages, you can get to a point where nobody’s going to give a damn. The honest, obvious high economic output from a coal plant can compensate for a lot of grief. Now we have all kinds of geopolitical problems, too. 

    The thing about clean coal is, they don’t just scrub it, they use less of it. 

     

     

    • #48
  19. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

     

     

     

    • #49
  20. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

     

     

     

    In convenient image form, for sending to family and friends as I’m doing:

     

    • #50
  21. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Sanctions on Russia was simply a compounding stupid move. The EU should never have done it.

    Food is also going to be increasingly problematic. This summer has seen drought and high temperatures. Combine that with requirements for 30% less fertilizer use by mandate and less fertilizer manufacturing and food will be hit hard.

    What the EU should not have done was to cede so much of their energy and food needs to places like Russia.

    Russia has the supply.

    What do you think that the Europeans should have done differently? If Russia had been cut out of the global energy markets years ago, the problems raised in the OP would have occurred sooner.

    I can think of a couple of things that the Europeans could have done to make themselves somewhat less dependent on Russian energy supplies. They could have maintained, and even expanded, their nuclear energy capacity. They could have kept using coal. (As I understand it, Europe has a pretty good supply of coal, though I haven’t checked the details lately.)

     

     

    From my understanding they will not even consider Fracking.  That alone might save them a bunch of issue.  I am all for clean energy but this killing the old before the new is ready is insane.  

    • #51
  22. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge
    Fake John/Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Sanctions on Russia was simply a compounding stupid move. The EU should never have done it.

    Food is also going to be increasingly problematic. This summer has seen drought and high temperatures. Combine that with requirements for 30% less fertilizer use by mandate and less fertilizer manufacturing and food will be hit hard.

    What the EU should not have done was to cede so much of their energy and food needs to places like Russia.

    Russia has the supply.

    What do you think that the Europeans should have done differently? If Russia had been cut out of the global energy markets years ago, the problems raised in the OP would have occurred sooner.

    I can think of a couple of things that the Europeans could have done to make themselves somewhat less dependent on Russian energy supplies. They could have maintained, and even expanded, their nuclear energy capacity. They could have kept using coal. (As I understand it, Europe has a pretty good supply of coal, though I haven’t checked the details lately.)

    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism… but yes they’re already restarting coal plants that they shouldn’t have shut down in the first place, and perhaps begun tearing down already… and yes they should have built more nuclear too.

    That is what gets me about our “betters”  they act like spinning up factories and plants are like flipping switches.  A nuclear or coal or gas power plant is a complex entity.  Almost alive in complexity.  They can not be turned off and turned back on via whim.  It take months maybe years to do so.  Why were these not in continuoususe and updated with as environmentally friendly tech as they could afford? 

    • #52
  23. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Sanctions on Russia was simply a compounding stupid move. The EU should never have done it.

    Food is also going to be increasingly problematic. This summer has seen drought and high temperatures. Combine that with requirements for 30% less fertilizer use by mandate and less fertilizer manufacturing and food will be hit hard.

    What the EU should not have done was to cede so much of their energy and food needs to places like Russia.

    Russia has the supply.

    What do you think that the Europeans should have done differently? If Russia had been cut out of the global energy markets years ago, the problems raised in the OP would have occurred sooner.

    I can think of a couple of things that the Europeans could have done to make themselves somewhat less dependent on Russian energy supplies. They could have maintained, and even expanded, their nuclear energy capacity. They could have kept using coal. (As I understand it, Europe has a pretty good supply of coal, though I haven’t checked the details lately.)

    The Europeans could have also done more LNG ship terminal construction, to get more from the US and other places, rather than building pipelines to Communism… but yes they’re already restarting coal plants that they shouldn’t have shut down in the first place, and perhaps begun tearing down already… and yes they should have built more nuclear too.

    That is what gets me about our “betters” they act like spinning up factories and plants are like flipping switches. A nuclear or coal or gas power plant is a complex entity. Almost alive in complexity. They can not be turned off and turned back on via whim. It take months maybe years to do so. Why were these not in continuoususe and updated with as environmentally friendly tech as they could afford?

    One of the things that could contribute massively to inflation is something about distillate production and its derivatives or something like that in Europe. Turning those plants off and on takes months. It must be something they create from natural gas. I got that from doomberg.

    • #53
  24. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    Personally, I have always been skeptical that clean coal was a great big terrible thing when you consider everything, as in what is happening now. Put up comprehensive compact nuke plants and then get rid of the coal.

    Come on man, coal is great.  It provides cheap reliable energy.  All of the above is the correct answer, but when nuke plants cost $34B, they are not ready to compete.

    • #54
  25. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    DonG (CAGW is a Scam) (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):
    Personally, I have always been skeptical that clean coal was a great big terrible thing when you consider everything, as in what is happening now. Put up comprehensive compact nuke plants and then get rid of the coal.

    Come on man, coal is great. It provides cheap reliable energy. All of the above is the correct answer, but when nuke plants cost $34B, they are not ready to compete.

    The operating cost might be a lot lower. I’m pretty sure nuclear fuel is almost negligible compared to anything else. 

    • #55
  26. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    New modular (and cheaper) nuclear power plans will be online this decade.

    Re-opening shuttered coal and nuclear plants is critical.

    After that, fracking is the fastest way to bring more indigenous power sources online. The new UK PM, Truss, has promised to make this possible, and to pause “Net-Zero.”

    Only an idiot hands Putin the keys to their own future by sourcing the bulk of their energy from Russia. 

    • #56
  27. RufusRJones Member
    RufusRJones
    @RufusRJones

    She has autism. They use her to make everybody do stupid things and then she can’t field even one question about what she is so angry about. Russia laughs. 

     

     

     

    • #57
  28. Western Chauvinist Member
    Western Chauvinist
    @WesternChauvinist

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    She has autism. They use her to make everybody do stupid things and then she can’t field even one question about what she is so angry about. Russia laughs.

     

     

     

    I believe the better word is “exploit.” Same as how they exploit dementia Joe.

    • #58
  29. DonG (CAGW is a Scam) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Scam)
    @DonG

    Western Chauvinist (View Comment):

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    She has autism. They use her to make everybody do stupid things and then she can’t field even one question about what she is so angry about. Russia laughs.

     

     

     

     

    I believe the better word is “exploit.” Same as how they exploit dementia Joe.

    Google tells me that age 18 Greta is 4’7″ tall.  

    • #59
  30. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    RufusRJones (View Comment):

    She has autism. They use her to make everybody do stupid things and then she can’t field even one question about what she is so angry about. Russia laughs.

    One of the comments was: “As Neil Oliver said, it’s not about going green, it’s about going without. Think about it.”

    • #60
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