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Ukraine Cannot Win
Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, I have wondered what the end game would be. I have never understood the West’s goal with intervention. I understand sending a message and “this will not stand” and we don’t want China getting ideas, etc. What I have not understood is a path to victory for Ukraine. I have asked in these pages what that looks like, and the answer ranged from unclear to getting Russia to leave to Russia leaving and paying reparations. There have even been talks of regime replacement and coups.
The facts are, there is no way to force an aggressor to leave if you cannot attack its base. It has to choose to give up. I have seen nothing proposed that would get Russia to give up. The idea that this is all Putin has struck me as unsupported at best and nonsense at worst. It does not matter how many years of weapon stockpiles we burn through to help the people of Ukraine. It does not matter how many weapons we put into the hands of Ukrainian people (leaving aside the question if they are not mostly ending up in the hands of organized crime in Ukraine). There is no way that Ukraine can win this war. They are going to lose. They have always been going to lose. Russia was always going to get what it wanted or, failing that, destroy the nation. Either way, the outcome is a loss for Ukraine.
Now I see this report and it seems to back up my darker thoughts. Its closing paragraph has a truth that was clear from the start:
Zelensky and the Ukrainian people will soon come face-to-face with the ugly prospect that continuing to fight will only bring more death and destruction to its people, cities, and armed forces – but be insufficient to stave off defeat. The truth is, military fundamentals and simple capacity are in Moscow’s favor. It is unlikely those factors change in time to avoid defeat for Kyiv and its brave people. That is the ugly, bitter reality of war.
Life is not fair. The West should not have encouraged Ukraine to fight Russia. This outcome was always as it was going to be.
Published in General
Versus having a set of policies that would avoid World War 2. Ukraine certainly had those possibilities and failed. Granted, the US led them into this folly. But they should have recognized that the US could not and would not help them the way they expected. The US has a lot of responsibility, i.e., guilt, for this as well.
Once upon a time, there was a Roman named Quintus Fabius Maximus Verrucosus. He was descended from heroic commanders, and after the disastrous initial battles of the Second Punic War, the Romans were panicked. Hannibal was loose on the Italian Peninsula with no one to contain him. They appointed Fabius to be dictator and were prepared to do whatever he commanded. And Fabius commanded – nothing. Well, not entirely nothing. He purified the city because he felt neglect had angered the gods. He built up the forces that had been lost to that point at the Battle of the Trebia and the Battle of Lake Trasimene, but when Hannibal advanced, Fabius retreated. The Romans started to get annoyed with Fabius. They added to his name. They started to call him Cunctator – the Delayer. Still, Fabius shadowed Hannibal everywhere he went, picking off the foraging parties the Carthaginian sent out and eliminating isolated garrisons where he found them. He retook the port of Tarentum when Hannibal wasn’t looking. After his one year term as dictator had come to an end, he advised the consuls to continue the strategy. They did, but one of the consuls who succeeded them was Varus, who was a hothead. He took the army directly up against Hannibal, and got himself slaughtered with most of that army at the Battle of Cannae. So, it was back to the Fabian strategy.
One American commander well knew the Fabian strategy and followed it in the early phase of his war so well that he was known as the American Fabian. His other nickname declared him to be the father of his country.
Zelenskyy has heard of both of these guys. He can win by not losing. Putin doesn’t have that option. Russia has already lost more troops than they did in the ten years they were in Afghanistan.
The Nazi offered alternative was akin to slavery- unacceptable to any Brit worth his salt. War isn’t always the worst alternative.
You were given the choice between war and dishonour. You chose dishonour, and you will have war.
— Winston Churchill
You REALLY don’t get it. When you reach that point, you’ve lost.
Where was the industry in Ukraine located? Where was the black earth in Ukraine located? Where was the oil and gas in Ukraine located? None of it moved between 1991 and 2022. The populations who lived there did not change appreciably. They were Russian.
So what was Ukraine’s idiot policies? Do everything you can to alienate Russians. Do everything you can to make Russians your enemies. What a truly stupid policy.
And a war breaks out in 2014 because of a coup and Russians in Ukraine are being killed by Ukrainian “nationalists” supported by the United States, i.e., a coup by a bunch of Nazis instigated by Victoria Nuland among others in the Obama administration. Areas are able to break away and protect themselves against the murderous treatment of the Ukrainian government. Then for 8 years, those areas are shelled by those wonderful Ukrainians whom you have a soft spot for. Then finally, after 8 years of shelling, the Russians invade to put a stop to it after Zelensky starts talking about Ukraine getting nukes.
And for 8 years rather than pursuing a peaceful resolution, Ukraine has refused. So now they are having their heads handed to them. Don’t count me as sad.
In the end the Confederacy lost because Lincoln, Grant and Sherman had greater will than Lee and Douglas, et al. The North had greater resources, but it didn’t matter until the greater will (and complete presence) of Lincoln Grant and Sherman prevailed enough to make the greater resources matter.
In the case of Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine has sufficient resources and backing to prevail if it holds its will. Putin is the only source of will on the Russian side. Without him Russia loses.
No- you don’t get it- freedom is valuable….Putin isn’t after just the Donbas- he wants all. No treaty with Putin is worth the paper it is written on until he is defeated. I know you abhor 1930s comparisons but here they are appropriate- in 1938 Hitler just didn’t want the Sudetenland…..
but you do get Russian propaganda- nazis everywhere…Ukrainians killing etc- etc etc-The Russians behavior has put all that to lie- they are murdering and pillaging. They are totally destroying the Donbas with massive artillery fire- yet they are invading to save it? Makes My Lai look like a party.
I mean, . . . maybe. Turns out, we don’t really know where the weaponry and money we’re pouring into Ukraine is going.
I think in quite a bit less than 20 years we’re going to look at this as another Afghanistan boondoggle. There will probably be a similarly tragic pullout, too. (What, you say, we’re not even in Ukraine.)
Yet.
It’s like the meme came to life.
In will help you out here- the dictionary definition:
fascism făsh′ĭz″əm
noun
See any similarities? Don’t hurt yourself thinking this out…..
Putin’s regime is a national socialist regime. The similarities with Mussolini are too numerous to ignore. It fits many of the criteria for Nazism except they seek to exterminate Ukraine not Jews.
I don’t care. This is not WWII. But if you like simplistic comparisons to avoid any deeper analysis, go crazy, man.
DrewInWisconsin, Unapologetic … (View Comment):
The truth is often simple-but stubborn.
“There are no easy answers but there are simple answers”
Ronald Reagan
and here the answer is simple- we must aid Ukraine. The left likes to claim it is complicated when facing evil so as to avoid doing something about it.
That makes sense, since we have pulled out of the areas that are primarily desert and the other ones don’t appear to need us any time soon. We will repaint camo colors from time to time. Did you have another color scheme in mind?
Utterly different circumstances. Britain could not destroy the nation the way Russia can.
And, I have not cast any dispersions on anyone in Ukraine as you do sarcastically against Adams. So not a good critique of my position at all.
As I have said with others, I welcome your pathway to a win for Ukraine. Based on this sarcasm, you appear to think complete victory of Russia leaving Ukraine after giving up and signing a treaty brokered by the US (the France analog) is possible.
The threat of the United States’ nuclear weapons> It is the whole point of NATO and why Russia moved now, before Ukraine was made a NATO member.
Well, I guess we have to disagree on Russia attacking a NATO nation. So far, you have not changed my mind. Please lay out how you see it happening and make an argument. But first, please make your case to demonstrate that Ukraine can win. Change my mind on that.
Y’all think Ukraine can win. At least try to put a plan forward.
Unlike Carthage, Russia does have the firepower and man power to destroy Ukraine. Carthage could do no such thing to Rome. Britain could do no such thing to the colonies.
In both cases you cite, the defenders had far more territory and more people in ratio to the aggressors than exists now. Further, France was far more willing to fight a war with Britain. Indeed, it was actively doing so when the Father of our Country was engaged in his “War of Posts”. That is not what is going on now. Not even close.
Winning a war that leaves your nation nothing but rubble is not winning.
That is not really true. This is not all Putin.
If they did, they’d have done it already. They have lost between 25-30% of their active duty tanks. There have been trainloads of T-62 tanks being sent to the region. The disadvantage of the T-62 is that it is almost as old a design as I am. The advantage is that it doesn’t use the fancy optics or electronics that Russia needs to build the frontline main battle tanks.
If they don’t lose, they will win.
Personally, I’m rooting for KGB-Boy to get the retirement present he deserved after the Soviet Union died with a whimper. A 9mm one delivered in the basement of the Lubyanka.
It is no more likely than the collapse of the Soviet Union, at a moment when everyone, especially the Soviets, counted themselves on solid footing. Or the efforts of a CIA Director turned POTUS to save the Soviet Union is the name of “world order”. Or that the masterful statesman Joe Biden would far out perform the vulgarian narcissist Trump as president. If we have learned anything from history, it is that events are frequently decided by unseen factors while every faction builds grand predictions based on accepted wisdoms or keen insights that all too frequently turn out to be irrelevant to the actual deciding factors.
I appreciate your attempt to draw parallels out of my example, but the point was simply that the view in the moment is often not at all predictive. The knock on the Adams’ comes at the expense of my own cousins, John and Sam, who were not at all popular with many Bostonians at that point, John for serving as the attorney for British troops charged in the Boston Massacre and Sam for going too far in provoking the British. You see, your ire is the sort of thing my family has a talent for drawing.
My latest personal comeuppance was that I expected a Biden presidency to be disastrous. I would now settle happily for merely disastrous.
The path to Ukrainian victory is the US throwing the domestic oil spigots open wide, bankrupting Russia, and leading the EU to finally establish the infrastructure necessary to accept LNG shipments. Putin had to attack when he did because the degree of Biden’s witlessness has saved Russia from fiscal lassitude. The proud new petro-ruble is a purely Biden accomplishment.
Tanks? They can drop bombs from planes that Ukraine cannot stop. They can fire missiles. Russia has the firepower to destroy Ukraine. The whole point of tanks (and I have no way to know if your figures are real or not) is to take territory and not destroy it. I am not saying that maybe the day of the tank is passed, but I am saying, one does not need tanks to destroy a nation.
I don’t think Putin dying stops the war.
I am the one going against the accepted wisdoms of the day.
I don’t have particular ire towards you. I was pointing out that your parallels were not very good. The idea that the moment is no predictive is valid. And, the United States crushed Japan.
Ah, here we have something I can sink my teeth into. I 100% agree we should have the spigots open. I am not sure, at this stage, it is enough.
Related:
The Ukraine Echo Chamber Goes Full Chernobyl
From publicly available information it does appear to be true. There does not appear to be anyone with the capacity to employ anywhere near his level of political control and will in the Russian government. Yes, there is plenty of Russian support for the war, but it is the traditional don’t poke the bear, love of Mother Russia patriotism that Russians have always displayed. However, in this case it’s (less than) a mile wide and only a few inches deep. And is buttressed by our stupid sanctions against the Russian people, in particular communications, (as opposed to the Russian government and oligarchs). Without Putin’s will to win the Russian government will go all Kerensky and degenerate into infighting.
This certainly seems like a path to US victory. Interestingly it doesn’t require anything one way or another for Ukraine.
From Newsweek two days ago at https://www.newsweek.com/zelensky-advisor-reveals-weapons-ukraine-needs-win-war-russia-1715133:
“Ukrainian presidential adviser and peace talks negotiator on Monday revealed the weapons Ukraine needs to end the war against Russia, as fighting intensifies in Ukraine’s east.
“‘Being straightforward—to end the war we need heavy weapons parity,’ Mykhailo Podolyak said on Twitter Monday morning.
“‘To bring an end to the conflict, Ukraine needs 1,000 howitzers caliber 155 mm, 300 MLRS (M270 Multiple Launch Rocket System), 500 tanks, 2,000 armored vehicles, and 1,000 drones,’ Podolyak added.”
Putin has just suggested that neither Estonia or Latvia have a right to exist. We either stop Putin in Ukraine, or get Article V be invoked if and when Putin invades Estonia or Latvia. Is there any debt that Poland would jump in, with its 38 million people?
We now have an issue of math. How many 155 mm Howitzers are there in the world? According to Wikipedia at https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/M777_howitzer:
How many howitzers does Russia have? Right now, Russia outnumbers Ukraine with 10 to 15 howitzers for every one that Ukraine has. Time for the Arsenal of Democracy and the rest of the world to even the odds.
We can’t afford to fight someone else’s war. Sorry not sorry.
You do not think Ukraine can win. However, a very large majority of Ukrainians think they can win, according to most people on the ground in Ukraine.
Telling Ukrainians that they must simply submit to Putin’s homicidal hands is going to be very tough sell.
Instead you tell them they must die for Joe Biden’s proxy war.