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Ukraine Cannot Win
Since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, I have wondered what the end game would be. I have never understood the West’s goal with intervention. I understand sending a message and “this will not stand” and we don’t want China getting ideas, etc. What I have not understood is a path to victory for Ukraine. I have asked in these pages what that looks like, and the answer ranged from unclear to getting Russia to leave to Russia leaving and paying reparations. There have even been talks of regime replacement and coups.
The facts are, there is no way to force an aggressor to leave if you cannot attack its base. It has to choose to give up. I have seen nothing proposed that would get Russia to give up. The idea that this is all Putin has struck me as unsupported at best and nonsense at worst. It does not matter how many years of weapon stockpiles we burn through to help the people of Ukraine. It does not matter how many weapons we put into the hands of Ukrainian people (leaving aside the question if they are not mostly ending up in the hands of organized crime in Ukraine). There is no way that Ukraine can win this war. They are going to lose. They have always been going to lose. Russia was always going to get what it wanted or, failing that, destroy the nation. Either way, the outcome is a loss for Ukraine.
Now I see this report and it seems to back up my darker thoughts. Its closing paragraph has a truth that was clear from the start:
Zelensky and the Ukrainian people will soon come face-to-face with the ugly prospect that continuing to fight will only bring more death and destruction to its people, cities, and armed forces – but be insufficient to stave off defeat. The truth is, military fundamentals and simple capacity are in Moscow’s favor. It is unlikely those factors change in time to avoid defeat for Kyiv and its brave people. That is the ugly, bitter reality of war.
Life is not fair. The West should not have encouraged Ukraine to fight Russia. This outcome was always as it was going to be.
Published in General
The lead military analyst on Fox News said that Ukraine is screwed unless they get a ton of weapons, fast. The economy is really getting destroyed.
Chechnya lost.
China and India are on Russia side.
Our economy, right?
That too
Luckily:
I actually don’t consider it a positive thing that the West keeps shoving money and weapons at Ukraine. If we really cared about Ukraine, we’d be helping both Zelenskyy and Putin find an off ramp and get a cease-fire going to preserve life and preserve the nation.
But all we’re doing is prolonging this war, which will ensure that Ukraine is nothing but rubble quite soon.
Me either.
I do think that Chechnya is the long term model here. Ugh.
And it totally sucks. I know I would want to fight to the last man in America, or Georgia was invaded.
Then again, Georgia was invaded, and eventually giving up was the right thing to do the, because a long, bloody, sectarian war would not have worked for Georgia. I am glad that did not happen.
The problem is Putin isn’t interested in just the Donbas and he has been pretty clear about it- any treaty will just be a short truce until he attacks again. The Ukrainian people understand that as is shown by their widespread rejection of any deals at this point(see the WSJ article cited earlier).
https://www.realclearworld.com/articles/2022/06/29/ukraine_and_the_allure_of_false_realisms_840008.html
Got a quote from Vlad himself saying that?
You’d take the word of a KGB sleazeball?
Would it help if he pinkie-swears?
Putin elaborated on his imperial vision during a June 9 event in Moscow to mark the 350th birthday of Russian Czar Peter the Great. He spoke admiringly of Czar Peter’s achievements during the Great Northern War and drew direct parallels to his own contemporary expansionist policies. The lands taken from Sweden during the Great Northern War were historically Russian and Peter was merely returning them to their rightful owners, Putin stated. “Apparently, it is now also our responsibility to return (Russian) land,” he said in a clear reference to the ongoing invasion of Ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/ukrainealert/putin-admits-ukraine-invasion-is-an-imperial-war-to-return-russian-land/
Speaking after visiting an exhibition to celebrate the 350th anniversary of Peter’s birth on Thursday, Putin drew a parallel to his invasion of Ukraine.
“Peter the Great waged the Great Northern War for 21 years. It would seem that he was at war with Sweden, he took something from them,” he said, according to a translation from Reuters. “He did not take anything from them, he returned [them].”
Referring to the Ukraine invasion he said: “Apparently, it also fell to us to return [what is Russia’s] and strengthen [the country]. And if we proceed from the fact that these basic values form the basis of our existence, we will certainly succeed in solving the tasks that we face.”
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/putin-ukraine-russia-tsar-peter-great-imperialism-rcna32909
What do you think he means when he makes statements that “explicitly denied that Ukraine had ever had “real statehood,” and said the country was an integral part of Russia’s “own history, culture, spiritual space.””
https://time.com/6150046/ukraine-statehood-russia-history-putin/
Additionally, what was the point of the attempted coup de main- ie the strike at Kyiv- if not to decapitate the Ukrainian government so as to sieze the country? The attacked that failed miserably.
Apparently someone does.
I just tire of mind-reading, which is what the “He plans to conquer Europe next!” is.
And Hitler stopped when he took the Sudetenland, didn’t he? There was a piece of paper! Hitler signed it!
Reward a thug and you get more thugs.
Really need to stop with the Hilter comparisons. Vlad is his own kind of bad.
Honestly, all the Hitler/WWII comparisons here remind me of those people who can only compare things to Harry Potter, because it’s the only book they’ve read.
Do your part for Slava Bandwagon.
No foresight on anything. No foresight on foreign policy. No foresight on energy transition or any financial realities around that.
No wonder they keep trying to take away the guns.
No hindsight either. The energy prices were already rising before the invasion because of decisions made by Biden on January 20, 2021, and even before as the market anticipated what he would do. Reverse these policies and things could have a chance of improving.
I see it’s no longer “Putin’s Price Hike,” though. He’s now all but admitted that it’s “Biden’s Price Hike for the purposes of financing Ukraine.”
I wonder if it occurs to Biden that when he tells Americans they have to continue to suffer for Ukraine, it likely makes more Americans think “F**k Ukraine.”
Of course if he was honest and admitted that all our suffering is due to his own policies, they’d think “F**k Joe Biden,” so I understand why he blames someone else. Again.
Right? They know what they need to do to change the trajectory, but they refuse to do it.
Because it’s deliberate.
Not even close to correct- Biden is not hiking the price of gas to finance the support of Ukraine (the feds aren’t making more money from the price hikes-just the opposite- gasoline use will decline with high prices therefore less tax revenue- see Adam Smith & Milton Friedman). Biden wants higher gas prices to force his green new deal policies- electric cars etc. You forget Rahm’s rule- never let a crisis go to waste-ie the Dems will use any legit problem as an excuse to advance their pet agendas even if it has nothing to do with the current problem (or will worsen it!).
Of course, most liberals think we get electricity from burning unicorn farts that emit no CO2. Or AOC’s plan for getting electricity
Dude. You think I actually believe Biden?
Come on.
I’m saying that when he says Americans must suffer high gas prices for Ukraine, that is not going to land well. It was a stupid thing to say, because the effect it will have is possibly the opposite of what he intends. But then he’s stupid.
A lot of stupidity going around.
Well we agree on something… :)
If you start at 7:20 it’s a nice survey of Biden versus Trump on foreign policy.
Some may want to skip ahead to what he says about Ukraine.
That’s pain on Russia alright. Go Brandon! Go EU! Go NATO.