Could Biden Trigger a Middle East War?

 

Joe Biden’s obstinate decision to continue to re-negotiate the Iran deal reminds me of the famous quotation often attributed to Einstein, “Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.” These efforts are not only true for Biden and his administration, but for the entire Progressive Movement. They never learn anything from their failures and when they fail, they blame others or insist they just need more money or more time.

This time the danger that’s developing is not just about Iran in isolation, but the entire Middle East, and therefore, the security and safety of the world:

In a message directed at the Biden administration and the other Western powers involved in the Vienna negotiations, the Arab countries said that Iran and its terrorist militias are continuing to create chaos and instability, especially in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon.

The Arabs, including the Arab League, are telling the Biden administration that, in their view, it is not only Iran that threatens their security, but also its terrorist proxies, including Hamas, Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hezbollah, and the Houthis.

The Arab countries that protested the potential of enabling Iran to develop their own nuclear weapons were Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates (UAE), Bahrain, and Egypt.

Not only is there a danger of Iran providing nuclear weapons to its proxies, but the Saudis have threatened to acquire nuclear weapons once Iran develops its own. It is well known that Iran is a major supplier to terrorist organizations in the region:

The Arab countries accused Iran of supporting, training and arming terrorist groups in Bahrain and condemned Hezbollah’s repeated threats and assaults against Saudi Arabia, UAE, Bahrain and Yemen.

They condemned Iran’s interference in the Syrian civil war and affirmed their solidarity with Morocco in confronting the interference of the Iranian regime and Hezbollah in the kingdom’s internal affairs, especially in regard to arming and training the separatist elements that threaten territorial integrity, security and stability.

Let’s not forget Iran’s supplying Hamas as well.

Most recently the leaders of Saudi Arabia and the UAE are not taking calls from the President. And of course, the Abraham Accords, which were building new relationships with Israel and the Arab countries, are now at risk without U.S. support.

So let me see if I have this right. The U.S. is negotiating with the most powerful terrorist organization in the Middle East, so that that country will have the advantage in taking over the control of the region, discouraging other Arab countries from working together, and threatening the internal securities of those countries.

And then, of course, Israel is caught in the middle of this situation.

The Biden administration thinks this is the path to removing the need for our involvement in the Middle East; Iran can simply take the reins and the world will go on.

The lack of insight and understanding of the current administration is mind-boggling. They must think that once they make friends with Iran, the country will drop its plan to expand its international caliphate.

And all of us, the entire world, will pay the price.

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. Hugh Member
    Hugh
    @Hugh

    Silly question: well of course he can.

    (Goes back to start of post to begin reading)

    • #1
  2. DrewInWisconsin, Oat! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oat!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Susan Quinn: The lack of insight and understanding of the current administration is mind-boggling.They must think that once they make friends with Iran, the country will drop its plan to expand its international caliphate.

    Never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by malice.

    Democrats hate Israel and it’s hard for me not to see this as arming Iran in order to bring about Israel’s destruction.

    • #2
  3. Hugh Member
    Hugh
    @Hugh

    I think that Israel will be forced to take action if there is an agreement which would allow Iran to get (and potentially use) a nuke.  Israel is not a country that is paralyzed into inaction by world event like some countries i could name.

    Good post Susan!

    • #3
  4. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    Never attribute to stupidity that which can be adequately explained by malice.

    Democrats hate Israel and it’s hard for me not to see this as arming Iran in order to bring about Israel’s destruction.

    I can’t argue with this point, Drew, but it breaks my heart. To hate Israel to this degree is hard to swallow. I hope we’re both wrong.

    • #4
  5. DrewInWisconsin, Oat! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oat!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    What will really be interesting is if this pushes Saudi Arabia and Israel together to form an alliance in opposition to a pro-Iraninan U.S.

    • #5
  6. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Hugh (View Comment):

    I think that Israel will be forced to take action if there is an agreement which would allow Iran to get (and potentially use) a nuke. Israel is not a country that is paralyzed into inaction by world event like some countries i could name.

    Good post Susan!

    Thanks, Hugh. You may be right about the nuke, but meanwhile the rest of the Middle East may very well devolve into a mess with Iran at the helm. And we’re assuming that we’ll know where all their sites are, too. Israel is pretty savvy, but. . . 

    • #6
  7. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    What will really be interesting is if this pushes Saudi Arabia and Israel together to form an alliance in opposition to a pro-Iraninan U.S.

    Oh, man, would that be amazing. The Saudis are pretty put out right now. 

    • #7
  8. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to %@#& things up.

    — Barack Obama

    • #8
  9. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Susan, do you have evidence that the JCPOA was not working?

    I’ve seen a couple of reports indicating that Iran was complying with the complex provisions for reducing its nuclear program.  Here is one from the State Department, here is another from a site called the Arms Control Association.  I don’t know whether or not they are correct.

    If these reports are correct, then it appears that the JCPOA was preventing Iranian progress toward obtaining nuclear weapons — until President Trump pulled out of it.

    I haven’t reached any conclusion myself.  I used to have a knee-jerk reaction of opposition to the JCPOA, based on nothing more than criticism by some people on the political right and general dislike and distrust of the Iranians.  I’ve come to have less confidence in the type of people leveling those criticisms, so I find myself undecided.  It looks like a complicated situation.  I have been influenced by a discussion of the issue by John Mearsheimer, which led me to be willing to consider the other side of the argument about this particular agreement.

    I haven’t seen any plan by those opposed to the JCPOA that would prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons.  Sanctions don’t seem to have been effective, over a great many years. 

    I don’t want to see Iran getting nuclear weapons.  Do you know of any plan, other than the JCPOA, that you think would be effective in preventing this?

    • #9
  10. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Here are two sources:

    https://emetonline.org/iran-obviously-violating-jcpoa/

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/agency-iran-violating-restrictions-nuclear-deal-71090757

    And no, I see no way to stop them. I never did see any way to stop them, especially since they refused to cooperate with random inspections.

    • #10
  11. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    “don’t underestimate Joe’s ability to f*** things up”

    — Barack Obama

    • #11
  12. Steven Seward Member
    Steven Seward
    @StevenSeward

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Here are two sources:

    https://emetonline.org/iran-obviously-violating-jcpoa/

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/agency-iran-violating-restrictions-nuclear-deal-71090757

    And no, I see no way to stop them. I never did see any way to stop them, especially since they refused to cooperate with random inspections.

    Israel seems to have been effective at stopping them so far.

    • #12
  13. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Steven Seward (View Comment):
    Israel seems to have been effective at stopping them so far.

    First, it’s only part of the problem, Steve. Second, Iran at some point may retaliate for those actions. They will certainly be emboldened if some kind of “deal” is concluded.

    • #13
  14. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):
    pro-Iraninan U.S.

    Words that should never need to be written or said.

    • #14
  15. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    Susan, do you have evidence that the JCPOA was not working?

    I’ve seen a couple of reports indicating that Iran was complying with the complex provisions for reducing its nuclear program. Here is one from the State Department, here is another from a site called the Arms Control Association. I don’t know whether or not they are correct.

    If these reports are correct, then it appears that the JCPOA was preventing Iranian progress toward obtaining nuclear weapons — until President Trump pulled out of it.

    I haven’t reached any conclusion myself. I used to have a knee-jerk reaction of opposition to the JCPOA, based on nothing more than criticism by some people on the political right and general dislike and distrust of the Iranians. I’ve come to have less confidence in the type of people leveling those criticisms, so I find myself undecided. It looks like a complicated situation. I have been influenced by a discussion of the issue by John Mearsheimer, which led me to be willing to consider the other side of the argument about this particular agreement.

    I haven’t seen any plan by those opposed to the JCPOA that would prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons. Sanctions don’t seem to have been effective, over a great many years.

    I don’t want to see Iran getting nuclear weapons. Do you know of any plan, other than the JCPOA, that you think would be effective in preventing this?

    If you’re going to argue that Obama, Biden, and John Kerry actually accomplished something worthwhile for once in their careers, you have a very difficult case to make.

    • #15
  16. DrewInWisconsin, Oat! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oat!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    kedavis (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):
    pro-Iraninan U.S.

    Words that should never need to be written or said.

    We definitely had that under Obama. Seems like we have it today, too.

    • #16
  17. kedavis Coolidge
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):
    pro-Iraninan U.S.

    Words that should never need to be written or said.

    We definitely had that under Obama. Seems like we have it today, too.

    Well, Obama’s middle name was Hussein and stuff, and now Biden is just plagiarizing Obama like he has so many others in the past.

    • #17
  18. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):

    Here are two sources:

    https://emetonline.org/iran-obviously-violating-jcpoa/

    https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/agency-iran-violating-restrictions-nuclear-deal-71090757

    And no, I see no way to stop them. I never did see any way to stop them, especially since they refused to cooperate with random inspections.

    Susan, thanks for the links.  It’s hard to figure out what’s going on — there are some claims that Iran violated the agreements before we pulled out, though most appear to have occurred after President Trump withdrew from the agreement (in May 2018, it appears).  We can’t really blame the Iranians for failure to comply after that.

    I don’t see a viable way to stop the Iranians from getting nukes, either, except possibly the JCPOA.  I’m not convinced that it will work, but there may be some chance that it will at least slow them down.  If this is correct, then returning to the agreement doesn’t seem like a terrible idea.

    I assume, though I don’t know, that the current negotiations would involve some reduction in sanctions against Iran.  I’m not sure of the extent of such sanctions.  My impression is that US sanctions are pretty severe, but I don’t know if the Europeans or others have sanctions in place.

    I’ve become increasingly skeptical about the usefulness of sanctions.  They don’t seem to prompt regime change, and don’t seem to be very effective in reducing the capabilities of countries that are doing things that we don’t like.  They do seem to hurt the poor people in those countries, and to hurt us too.  I would like to see oil prices lower, and it’s possible that eliminating or reducing sanctions would accomplish this.  This benefit would have to be balanced against any positive results from sanctions, such as pressuring or controlling Iranian actions, but as I noted, I’m skeptical about such effectiveness.

    I do wish that I had some brilliant solution to this problem.  I don’t.

    • #18
  19. DrewInWisconsin, Oat! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oat!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Jerry, for starters, if you’re looking for accurate information, ignore anything coming from the Biden State Department.

    • #19
  20. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Biden can trigger all sorts of bad things.  Heck, he’s already done so . . .

    • #20
  21. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot) Member
    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patriot)
    @ArizonaPatriot

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    Jerry, for starters, if you’re looking for accurate information, ignore anything coming from the Biden State Department.

    Bad idea, Drew, if you’re serious.

    What about Victoria Nuland’s admission about biolabs in Ukraine?  Do we ignore that?

    I wish it were this simple, like the old logic games where one type of person always lies and the other always tells the truth.  Life doesn’t work that way.

    • #21
  22. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):
    I’m not convinced that it will work, but there may be some chance that it will at least slow them down

    I can’t understand the real benefit of slowing them down. How is that helpful?

    • #22
  23. DrewInWisconsin, Oat! Member
    DrewInWisconsin, Oat!
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    Jerry, for starters, if you’re looking for accurate information, ignore anything coming from the Biden State Department.

    Bad idea, Drew, if you’re serious.

    What about Victoria Nuland’s admission about biolabs in Ukraine? Do we ignore that?

    That’s in the context of asking whether Iran is obeying the JCPOA. If the Biden State Dept. says yes, assume the answer is no. As for the biolabs in Ukraine, I have wondered why, after repeatedly denying their existence, the State Dept. is suddenly admitting it.

    What are they getting out in front of?

    No, I don’t trust Bureaucratic Washington. I don’t really trust Elected Washington either. Fool me once . . .

    I wish it were this simple, like the old logic games where one type of person always lies and the other always tells the truth. Life doesn’t work that way.

    We can no longer “Trust, But Verify.” We must “Distrust, But Verify.”

    • #23
  24. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    This action is ominous in many ways:

    The Chinese yuan reversed earlier declines following a report by Dow Jones that Saudi Arabia is in active talks with Beijing to price some of its oil sales to China in the currency.

    https://invezz.com/news/2022/03/16/saudi-arabia-china-in-talks-over-yuan-denominated-oil-contracts-petrodollar-under-threat/

     

    • #24
  25. Fritz Coolidge
    Fritz
    @Fritz

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    Jerry, for starters, if you’re looking for accurate information, ignore anything coming from the Biden State Department.

    Bad idea, Drew, if you’re serious.

    What about Victoria Nuland’s admission about biolabs in Ukraine? Do we ignore that?

    I wish it were this simple, like the old logic games where one type of person always lies and the other always tells the truth. Life doesn’t work that way.

    Nuland was testifying under oath in a public congressional hearing. Unlike James Clapper and others in the recent past, she chose not to lie.

    That is a rather different circumstance from issuing a State Dept. statement or press release for which a lie brings no repercussions other than possibly some pushback. So I am fine with considering what Muland testified about and crediting more seriously than mere State Dept. claims.

    • #25
  26. E. Kent Golding Member
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    The Jews are God’s Chosen people.   Even after Jesus,  the Jews have a special place in God’s heart.   As does Jerusalem.   Hating Israel is just the progressive’s way to take a poke at God.  They hate God;  hurting Israel is just a way to cause God pain.     The progressives forget the capabilities and nature of who they hate.

    • #26
  27. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    E. Kent Golding (View Comment):

    The Jews are God’s Chosen people. Even after Jesus, the Jews have a special place in God’s heart. As does Jerusalem. Hating Israel is just the progressive’s way to take a poke at God. They hate God; hurting Israel is just a way to cause God pain. The progressives forget the capabilities and nature of who they hate.

    Thanks, E. Kent. 

    • #27
  28. DonG (CAGW is a Hoax) Coolidge
    DonG (CAGW is a Hoax)
    @DonG

    Making a high yield nuclear bomb is tricky.   I doubt Iran can do it.   But, give the country many tons of nuclear waste and somebody is bound to do some thing.  Israel better start installing Geiger counters at their entry points.

    • #28
  29. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… (View Comment):

    DrewInWisconsin, Oat! (View Comment):

    Jerry, for starters, if you’re looking for accurate information, ignore anything coming from the Biden State Department.

    Bad idea, Drew, if you’re serious.

    What about Victoria Nuland’s admission about biolabs in Ukraine? Do we ignore that?

    I wish it were this simple, like the old logic games where one type of person always lies and the other always tells the truth. Life doesn’t work that way.

    Yes.  She’s saying that any bio-weapons attacks would come from Russia, and this is the set-up she’s making for a Russian false-flag blaming in on the Ukrainians.  In short, she’s lying.

    • #29
  30. BDB Coolidge
    BDB
    @BDB

    I wonder if the baffling public statement by John Kerry was a signal.  Something about hoping that Putin will play ball with enviro-whack something or other.

    The media is the “hidden” comms channel these people use.  I’m not supposing a bunch of dog-whistle code book stuff.  Just that John Kerry is Mister Iran Nuke Deal.  It was really odd of him to pop up, and I think the oddness was him staying *off* the topic.  If I had to guess, I’d say that was to re-assure the Mullahs that Team Obama is on the job.

    That’s how they roll.

    • #30
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