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An Omicron Hypothesis
Omicron doesn’t kill people nearly as much as earlier variants of Covid. But does it kill people much at all? Not long ago, you could look at global data or country-specific data for places that have a lot of cases of Omicron at Worldometer and see something interesting: Despite epic spikes in the case numbers, deaths were fewer than for any previous spike.
That seems like it would be a big deal: The rates skyrocketing in these Omicron waves with the death numbers falling in absolute terms and the death rates plummeting dramatically.
But deaths are a lagging indicator, and we needed a few more weeks to confirm that Omicron is killing fewer people overall despite its massive transmissibility. And we still need a few weeks.
It sure looks good in the UK: The Omicron wave seems to be receding, and the death numbers are nowhere near the numbers for the last wave. Likewise South Africa, ahead of the UK. And in some other places that appear to be a bit earlier in the Omicron wave, it sure looks promising. Turkey. Italy. Brazil.
Enter the USA: If I’m reading this chart right, death rates look like they’re just about to pass the Delta wave death rates.
Dang.
So maybe Omicron is still killing people, and killing them in numbers enough that its dominance is not a good thing in absolute terms: massive transmission rates, massive case numbers, much lower death rate, and still more deaths overall.
Or . . . maybe not that exactly.
Suppose for a moment that the way things look just now is the way they are: In the UK and South Africa, Omicron killed fewer people than any previous version of the virus, even while spreading to more people and, conveniently, giving them the best immunity so far; but in the USA it actually killed more people!
Why would that be?
Is it because the USA has a lower vaccination rate? Not likely. Check the NY Times vaccination tracker: In the second-dose and third-dose numbers, the UK is significantly leading the US, but it only leads 78 percent to 75 percent in first-dose numbers. More importantly, South Africa’s rates are much lower than the USA.
But here’s something that fits that data, something that the USA has more of than either the UK or South Africa:
America is a very fat country.
So here is an Omicron hypothesis for your consideration: Maybe Omicron has massive transmission rates and case numbers, a much lower death rate, and lower deaths overall–except for where obesity rates are high.
If that’s the truth, things are still worse than I’d hoped. But still a lot better than they were.
But I don’t know what’s true. We could look at the numbers over the next few weeks and compare them to this Wikipedia chart of countries by obesity rates: Find countries with obesity rates comparable to the USA, wait until their Omicron waves come and go, and then look over the death rates. And watch various countries now having Omicron spikes, see if they follow the pattern of the UK and South Africa, and then check to see if they are significantly less obese than the USA.
In the meantime, and speaking of not knowing things, I don’t know how the CIA figures out obesity rates; but that’s where the Wikipedia chart comes from–the CIA World Factbook. And I don’t know if the USA is overreporting in some way that makes its data largely useless–deaths with Covid reported as deaths from Covid, that sort of thing.
And I didn’t know, in a previous post drawing in part from Worldometer numbers, how much the case rates were going to go up and down again and again and again. (An updated post, including a partial retraction of the earlier one, is in the works.)
Hello, my name is Socrates, and I don’t know anything. But here is a plausible hypothesis about Omicron. What do you think?
Published in General
Math ain’t hard unless you’re stupid. 20+20=40. 39+1 also equals 40. 800k over two years does not mean 400k each flu season. You cannot see my point because you are blinded. Everyone else seems to have gotten it. Maybe the mask is cutting oxygen from your brain?
Dead is dead- and rude is rude.
PS- the masks causing hypoxia meme was discredit a long time ago.
There are so many ways to look at the relationship between the flu and covid epidemics and pandemics.
In fact, we have the same problems with both in terms of statistics gathering. We have the means to look at them separately but not the money.
The years 2017 through 2018 were severe H3N2 flu seasons worldwide.
The flu does not normally kill people. It takes a secondary covid-like infection to do that. I can’t help wondering if coronaviruses have been some of the culprits.
Why has the flu nearly disappeared? Or has it? Of all the aspects of the covid pandemic that I find interesting, the flu aspect is the most interesting.
Wearing an N95 mask makes me short of breath in about a half hour.
The regular paper masks ain’t easy on me. Much, much harder to breathe.
True.
Yeah, we really need better numbers on deaths from/with Covid.
I think I liked every sentence in this comment!
Except this one.
I doubt it will be simple addition like that. A person who would have died of flu will sometimes die of Covid instead, or of both together.
Eyeballing the worldwide latest wave looks like inflection point may be a week past. Potato-level analytics.
Simple: I just breathe in and out of the sides of the paper masks.
Except that pretty much every other malady hits people with comorbidities harder as well.
There might be a reason masks are popular in some quarters:
https://www.cardiff.ac.uk/news/view/2595728-face-masks-make-wearers-look-more-attractive,-study-suggests
I get the image of Austin Power’s teeth when I read this…. :)
I wear a bandana when absolutely required to “wear a mask.” [FYI I’d make an exception and wear a N95 mask if I were to enter a hospital or other medical facility.] I tuck the lower portion of the bandana into my shirt. It is my token bending of the knee. But I can breathe easier and probably spread fewer “toxic molecules.”
I keep a used blue single-use mask in a baggie in my pocket. If really pressed by some Karen, I’ll pull it out and say, “Do you want me to wear this one? I found it out in the parking lot.”
Dishonest is dishonest. The point I made wasn’t difficult to grasp. Would you like me to spell it out?
It doesn’t matter if 400k people have died over nearly 3 years. That number is irrelevant. What I was saying was that it is foolish to keep counting “deaths” as if any number is somehow a scare figure- if we’re not at zero deaths for the winter, we need to keep the hysteria alive and all the power grabs, losses of liberty, insane “restrictions” that go along with it. Personally, I don’t believe that any number is worth it, considering the interventions do more harm than good- but if anyone in the media was honest (note: they aren’t), they would be measuring against a typical flu season and making that comparison. That would show that this “omicron wave” (as it is somewhat absurdly referred to- I suppose every flu season will be referred to as a “wave” indefinitely?) is no different than what we have dealt with for over a hundred years.
Of course, of we did that, they’re have to admit it’s over, and for those sad people to whom this pandemic has given a sense of meaning, nothing could be scarier.
I made that point clearly the first time, and I think you understood it perfectly. But there you are again.
The problem is you’re wearing it right.
Does my beard make me look infectious?
Something sure does.
I meant for the mask fit, but you’ve got a point.
That’s another thing. Trimming one’s facial hair to fit under a face covering reminds me of someone …
I am sorry you do not think the deaths of >400K people matters- people aren’t irrelevant
Can I start with trimming back some of the negatives?
Ok, I don’t think we have any major linguistic confusion here; that’s nice.
But Hammer didn’t say their deaths don’t matter.
Neither is liberty.
You are an idiot if you think that’s what I was saying. But of course you didn’t actually think that. Get back to me when you’re ready to be serious.
Okay, I give up. Whom does it remind you of?
Ahh! Passive voice! Who exactly discredited this besides you?
Some Brazilian dude.
You need to get away from Malone-Mercola-Berenson et al etc:
https://www.mayoclinichealthsystem.org/hometown-health/speaking-of-health/debunked-myths-about-face-masks
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2772655
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/factcheck/2020/05/30/fact-check-wearing-face-mask-not-cause-hypoxia-hypercapnia/5260106002/
https://wexnermedical.osu.edu/blog/masks-oxygen-levels
of course the conspiracy mongers will quote a retracted “study” to back their claims -such as:
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamapediatrics/fullarticle/2781743
but it was bunk: https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/93609
The left has disaster porn- you participate in the right wing denial porn on COVID deaths (they are just old-they were going to die-overcounted- death with not from-comorbidities etc etc) & disaster porn on masks & vaccines (hypoxia! hypercarbia!-the vax killed 388,000-actual claim by Kirsch-myocarditis from the vax is severe) . Two tribes- two different mythology systems- and both want to twist the facts for their narrative- Narrative is not the truth .The truth is COVID deaths are large & relevant and the vax works AND we do not need to close the schools & kill small business. But believing the former doesn’t obligate you to disbelieve the later.
BTW- I do not call you an idiot nor brain injured from hypoxia etc- you have no knowledge of my IQ nor academic achievement.[ I do not even allege you have brain fog from long COVID-TIC :)]. I do not call you an idiot- I think you are ill informed but not stupid. In many ways that is worse- b/c when intelligent people on the right fall for conspiracy theories & tribalism it is bad news for our country. The greatest resource a country has is the minds & diligence of its people-and even people with comorbidities & old people can contribute a lot. I believe people contribute most in a system based on conservative principles. Those principles are endangered in a tribal system which denies inconvenient facts (“our truths”). The left doesn’t believe that the truth exists- we need to fight with the truth -not a preferred narritive that ignores it. We will not beat the left without the truth-one b/c they control the commanding heights of the academic/media world & therefore have a bigger bullhorn and secondly- b/c they will beat us with experience-they see no need of the truth and dissemble it freely.
I believe you fear inconvenient truths like deaths rates & vax effectiveness b/c you think that accepting them necessarily leads to mandates & government policies you oppose. In this case I think you can believe the former and deny the later. Vaccine effectiveness does not mean the feds have a license to mandate- like the SCOTUS ruled. We should applaud our federalist system and limited government but not deny medical facts. We can acknowledge the efficacy of the vax and the large number of deaths (medical facts) but those do not require one to back mandates & lockdowns. Mandates & lockdowns are NOT medical decisions (there is no medical subspecialty of lockdowns)-they are policy decisions that encompass alot more than medical expertise-and that is where we fight them.
addendum- my use of “you” is not meant to be an exclusive sense- I believe the above is true for many on the right-who altho I agree on policy are making the mistake of thinking tribally (or in “silos”). To often, it seems the default has become b/c the left believes it I must therefore oppose it- I can’t give a millimeter. Many on the left have been this way for a longtime (no enemies to the left!).
This is exactly how I would describe the conflict.
I don’t see a way out of this argument trap.
I think this bundling of beliefs into two piles is the result of our becoming a low-trust society that is currently under tremendous stress.
The Civil War was shrouded in hyperbole on both sides.
I guess the answer ultimately is recognizing that most people came to their beliefs based on things they read that were credible to them.
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