Latest News from Washington State Good for School Choice?

 

This interesting story is on the KOMO website this morning: “Enrollment drop could cost WA schools $500 Million in state funding.”

The Seattle Times reports that between October 2019 and October 2020, 39,000 fewer students enrolled in public school, about a 3.5% drop.

The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

How much of that drop is people leaving the state, and how much is people pulling their kids out of public schools to go to private or religious schools?  The article doesn’t say.

Those are pretty large decreases in public school attendance in one of the most reliably blue states in America.  One thing you can count on, though, is the state and local governments not reducing the property taxes allocated to schools.

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  1. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    RushBabe49: One thing you can count on, though, is the state and local governments not reducing the property taxes allocated to schools.

    Which is exactly why it WON’T cost them $500 million in state funding.

    • #1
  2. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    I am sure that the data about schools, who has left snd where they went, will be about as transparent as the powers that be need it to be — just like Covid. Union-taught public schools won’t lose a dime. The state will find a way to stick it to taxpayers one way or the other.

    • #2
  3. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Rodin (View Comment):

    I am sure that the data about schools, who has left snd where they went, will be about as transparent as the powers that be need it to be — just like Covid. Union-taught public schools won’t lose a dime. The state will find a way to stick it to taxpayers one way or the other.

    They will increase property taxes because the drop in attendance means few pupils per teacher.  So, for more expensive teachers, you need more taxes to pay them.  It’s just the finances of it.

    • #3
  4. Henry Castaigne Member
    Henry Castaigne
    @HenryCastaigne

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    I am sure that the data about schools, who has left snd where they went, will be about as transparent as the powers that be need it to be — just like Covid. Union-taught public schools won’t lose a dime. The state will find a way to stick it to taxpayers one way or the other.

    They will increase property taxes because the drop in attendance means few pupils per teacher. So, for more expensive teachers, you need more taxes to pay them. It’s just the finances of it.

    I don’t disagree but rejoice nonetheless. More and more families are giving their kids a good education.

    • #4
  5. Retail Lawyer Member
    Retail Lawyer
    @RetailLawyer

    The local news is reporting the same thing in San Francisco.  Similarly, the reports exclude the same issues as mentioned above.

    • #5
  6. Seawriter Contributor
    Seawriter
    @Seawriter

    For those predicting things will go on as usual with the state and local governments endlessly collecting and raising taxes, remember Stein’s Law: What can’t go on forever, won’t. The blue state model is ultimately unsustainable. Eventually it will stop. Either the powers that be will walk away from it voluntarily or it will collapse under its own weight.

    • #6
  7. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    For those predicting things will go on as usual with the state and local governments endlessly collecting and raising taxes, remember Stein’s Law: What can’t go on forever, won’t. The blue state model is ultimately unsustainable. Eventually it will stop. Either the powers that be will walk away from it voluntarily or it will collapse under its own weight.

    They could stretch it out for years, though, with federal bailouts.

    • #7
  8. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Henry Castaigne (View Comment):

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    I am sure that the data about schools, who has left snd where they went, will be about as transparent as the powers that be need it to be — just like Covid. Union-taught public schools won’t lose a dime. The state will find a way to stick it to taxpayers one way or the other.

    They will increase property taxes because the drop in attendance means few pupils per teacher. So, for more expensive teachers, you need more taxes to pay them. It’s just the finances of it.

    I don’t disagree but rejoice nonetheless. More and more families are giving their kids a good education.

    You don’t get my sarcasm?  I have to work on my sarcasm.  :)

    • #8
  9. Flicker Coolidge
    Flicker
    @Flicker

    Seawriter (View Comment):

    For those predicting things will go on as usual with the state and local governments endlessly collecting and raising taxes, remember Stein’s Law: What can’t go on forever, won’t. The blue state model is ultimately unsustainable. Eventually it will stop. Either the powers that be will walk away from it voluntarily or it will collapse under its own weight.

    Or the Fed/ USG will continue to bail the states out with increasingly worthless money until the inflation reaches its vertical climb and everything collapses.

    • #9
  10. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Flicker (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

    I am sure that the data about schools, who has left snd where they went, will be about as transparent as the powers that be need it to be — just like Covid. Union-taught public schools won’t lose a dime. The state will find a way to stick it to taxpayers one way or the other.

    They will increase property taxes because the drop in attendance means few pupils per teacher. So, for more expensive teachers, you need more taxes to pay them. It’s just the finances of it.

    And people will move because they can’t afford the “free” public education.  The death spiral continues . . .

    • #10
  11. Illiniguy Member
    Illiniguy
    @Illiniguy

    RushBabe49:

    Money quote:

    The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

    This is the real money quote. When you start seeing the numbers drop like this in the younger grades, it’s a sign of a lot more than merely people moving out of the state. Parents are paying attention, and they’re making choices. This is a trend that merits our attention and deserves our support.

    • #11
  12. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Illiniguy (View Comment):

    RushBabe49:

    Money quote:

    The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

    This is the real money quote. When you start seeing the numbers drop like this in the younger grades, it’s a sign of a lot more than merely people moving out of the state. Parents are paying attention, and they’re making choices. This is a trend that merits our attention and deserves our support.

    Sounds like a lot of pressure on states and even the feds to outlaw homeschooling and even private schools, and to mandate that all children attend public schools.  After being vaccinated, of course.

    • #12
  13. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Illiniguy (View Comment):

    RushBabe49:

    Money quote:

    The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

    This is the real money quote. When you start seeing the numbers drop like this in the younger grades, it’s a sign of a lot more than merely people moving out of the state. Parents are paying attention, and they’re making choices. This is a trend that merits our attention and deserves our support.

    Sounds like a lot of pressure on states and even the feds to outlaw homeschooling and even private schools, and to mandate that all children attend public schools. After being vaccinated, of course.

    There are plenty of people who want to do that, and plenty of people who wanted to keep the homeschooling movement from getting started in the first place.  There are enough people on both left and right who are homeschooling that it won’t be easy to stop it now, though of course there are always people who are trying to undermine it.  

    • #13
  14. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Illiniguy (View Comment):

    RushBabe49:

    Money quote:

    The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

    This is the real money quote. When you start seeing the numbers drop like this in the younger grades, it’s a sign of a lot more than merely people moving out of the state. Parents are paying attention, and they’re making choices. This is a trend that merits our attention and deserves our support.

    Sounds like a lot of pressure on states and even the feds to outlaw homeschooling and even private schools, and to mandate that all children attend public schools. After being vaccinated, of course.

    There are plenty of people who want to do that, and plenty of people who wanted to keep the homeschooling movement from getting started in the first place. There are enough people on both left and right who are homeschooling that it won’t be easy to stop it now, though of course there are always people who are trying to undermine it.

    I expect the people on the left will be happy to give up homeschooling as soon as someone convinces them again that government schools are better than they can possibly do on their own.  Due to have professional teachers, etc.  Plus taxpayer-bought science equipment, etc.  That leaves only the people on the right, who can be more easily bulldozed.

    • #14
  15. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    kedavis (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Illiniguy (View Comment):

    RushBabe49:

    Money quote:

    The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

    This is the real money quote. When you start seeing the numbers drop like this in the younger grades, it’s a sign of a lot more than merely people moving out of the state. Parents are paying attention, and they’re making choices. This is a trend that merits our attention and deserves our support.

    Sounds like a lot of pressure on states and even the feds to outlaw homeschooling and even private schools, and to mandate that all children attend public schools. After being vaccinated, of course.

    There are plenty of people who want to do that, and plenty of people who wanted to keep the homeschooling movement from getting started in the first place. There are enough people on both left and right who are homeschooling that it won’t be easy to stop it now, though of course there are always people who are trying to undermine it.

    I expect the people on the left will be happy to give up homeschooling as soon as someone convinces them again that government schools are better than they can possibly do on their own. Due to have professional teachers, etc. Plus taxpayer-bought science equipment, etc. That leaves only the people on the right, who can be more easily bulldozed.

    You ought to get to know some of the people on the left who do homeschooling.  

    • #15
  16. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Illiniguy (View Comment):

    RushBabe49:

    Money quote:

    The numbers weren’t distributed evenly across grades — the most pronounced losses were among younger students; the number of kindergarten students plummeted by 14%.

    This is the real money quote. When you start seeing the numbers drop like this in the younger grades, it’s a sign of a lot more than merely people moving out of the state. Parents are paying attention, and they’re making choices. This is a trend that merits our attention and deserves our support.

    Sounds like a lot of pressure on states and even the feds to outlaw homeschooling and even private schools, and to mandate that all children attend public schools. After being vaccinated, of course.

    There are plenty of people who want to do that, and plenty of people who wanted to keep the homeschooling movement from getting started in the first place. There are enough people on both left and right who are homeschooling that it won’t be easy to stop it now, though of course there are always people who are trying to undermine it.

    I expect the people on the left will be happy to give up homeschooling as soon as someone convinces them again that government schools are better than they can possibly do on their own. Due to have professional teachers, etc. Plus taxpayer-bought science equipment, etc. That leaves only the people on the right, who can be more easily bulldozed.

    You ought to get to know some of the people on the left who do homeschooling.

    Except then why are they on the left?  But I guess we’ll find out eventually.

    • #16
  17. Eugene Kriegsmann Member
    Eugene Kriegsmann
    @EugeneKriegsmann

    Washington state has a levy system which provides additional funds for schools, or, at least, what is claimed to be extra funding. In truth the failure of a school levy can lead to devastating effects on local school districts. Being in Special Education my job was never in jeopardy, but I saw an awful lot of young teachers sweat out the annual levies. I doubt that the legislature will cut back on funding, but I also think that the levies are likely to be in serious trouble as parents use those elections to get back at the unions and the districts. Payback is a B—-! as the saying goes. Additionally, federal funding is based largely on enrollment numbers which are tabulated during the first few days of the school year. Where the legislature my not reduce funding, the federal government most certainly will. The National Education Association and its local affiliates made a very serious miscalculation keeping the schools closed through last year.

    Incidentally, I was at a dinner on Thursday at which a couple of teachers from the local Orting, WA. school district were present. They both work in an elementary school. They said that the kids had been deeply damaged by last year. They were very immature for their age, 8 years old in this case, and not adjusting at all well to being back in school. I suspect that that may be a common problem nationwide and at all grade levels.

    • #17
  18. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Eugene Kriegsmann (View Comment):
    Incidentally, I was at a dinner on Thursday at which a couple of teachers from the local Orting, WA. school district were present. They both work in an elementary school. They said that the kids had been deeply damaged by last year. They were very immature for their age, 8 years old in this case, and not adjusting at all well to being back in school. I suspect that that may be a common problem nationwide and at all grade levels.

    That’s also something the state legislatures and the feds could latch onto, as “proof” that homeschooling is inadequate.

    • #18
  19. Manny Member
    Manny
    @Manny

    RushBabe49: How much of that drop is people leaving the state, and how much is people pulling their kids out of public schools to go to private or religious schools?  The article doesn’t say.

    The public school numbers are down in New York City too and the overall population has not decreased.  People are pulling their kids out.  I hope this bodes well for school choice but the teacher’s union will fight it tooth and nail.  

    • #19
  20. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    Manny (View Comment):

    RushBabe49: How much of that drop is people leaving the state, and how much is people pulling their kids out of public schools to go to private or religious schools? The article doesn’t say.

    The public school numbers are down in New York City too and the overall population has not decreased. People are pulling their kids out. I hope this bodes well for school choice but the teacher’s union will fight it tooth and nail.

    Might be fun if they tell the unions that the teachers have to put their kids in the public schools too.

    • #20
  21. Henry Castaigne Member
    Henry Castaigne
    @HenryCastaigne

    Manny (View Comment):

    RushBabe49: How much of that drop is people leaving the state, and how much is people pulling their kids out of public schools to go to private or religious schools? The article doesn’t say.

    The public school numbers are down in New York City too and the overall population has not decreased. People are pulling their kids out. I hope this bodes well for school choice but the teacher’s union will fight it tooth and nail.

    The teachers union will fight everything that is good. It is like they are in service of the Hindu devil Mara.

    • #21
  22. Henry Castaigne Member
    Henry Castaigne
    @HenryCastaigne

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Manny (View Comment):

    RushBabe49: How much of that drop is people leaving the state, and how much is people pulling their kids out of public schools to go to private or religious schools? The article doesn’t say.

    The public school numbers are down in New York City too and the overall population has not decreased. People are pulling their kids out. I hope this bodes well for school choice but the teacher’s union will fight it tooth and nail.

    Might be fun if they tell the unions that the teachers have to put their kids in the public schools too.

    That is possibly the best thing you have ever said. I think this might be some good legislation to support. It should be thrown out of court because it is unconstitutional but the media fire around it would be absolutely glorious. Especially in California where a majority of public school teachers have their kids in private schools.

    • #22
  23. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Eugene Kriegsmann (View Comment):
    Incidentally, I was at a dinner on Thursday at which a couple of teachers from the local Orting, WA. school district were present. They both work in an elementary school. They said that the kids had been deeply damaged by last year. They were very immature for their age, 8 years old in this case, and not adjusting at all well to being back in school. I suspect that that may be a common problem nationwide and at all grade levels.

    That’s also something the state legislatures and the feds could latch onto, as “proof” that homeschooling is inadequate.

    Until they find out that the home schooled kids are the ones who suffered less disruption. 

    • #23
  24. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Henry Castaigne (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Manny (View Comment):

    RushBabe49: How much of that drop is people leaving the state, and how much is people pulling their kids out of public schools to go to private or religious schools? The article doesn’t say.

    The public school numbers are down in New York City too and the overall population has not decreased. People are pulling their kids out. I hope this bodes well for school choice but the teacher’s union will fight it tooth and nail.

    Might be fun if they tell the unions that the teachers have to put their kids in the public schools too.

    That is possibly the best thing you have ever said. I think this might be some good legislation to support. It should be thrown out of court because it is unconstitutional but the media fire around it would be absolutely glorious. Especially in California where a majority of public school teachers have their kids in private schools.

    One of our daughter’s high school teachers (in a public high school) home-schooled his children.  It didn’t endear him to his colleagues, but he (and his wife) did it.  I don’t think things would have been improved by forcing him to send his kids to public school.  

    • #24
  25. kedavis Member
    kedavis
    @kedavis

    The Reticulator (View Comment):

    kedavis (View Comment):

    Eugene Kriegsmann (View Comment):
    Incidentally, I was at a dinner on Thursday at which a couple of teachers from the local Orting, WA. school district were present. They both work in an elementary school. They said that the kids had been deeply damaged by last year. They were very immature for their age, 8 years old in this case, and not adjusting at all well to being back in school. I suspect that that may be a common problem nationwide and at all grade levels.

    That’s also something the state legislatures and the feds could latch onto, as “proof” that homeschooling is inadequate.

    Until they find out that the home schooled kids are the ones who suffered less disruption.

    They don’t find out anything they don’t want to believe.

    • #25
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