Ricochet is the best place on the internet to discuss the issues of the day, either through commenting on posts or writing your own for our active and dynamic community in a fully moderated environment. In addition, the Ricochet Audio Network offers over 50 original podcasts with new episodes released every day.
Delta a Blessing in Disguise?
Delta a blessing? I am not often accused of being a raging optimist/Pollyanna type. But I really am seeing a bright silver lining around the Indian variant.
Here is what we know:
First, unlike variant alpha which was really fiercely “seasonal” within defined regions, delta is causing a noticeable simultaneous “case” increase all over the US (even more in the southern US because late July-early August is the southern COVID “seasonality” period.) indicating a big difference in contagiousness. That may seem like bad news but…
Second, fatalities per case are extremely low compared to all previous waves.
And a glance at the excess deaths running chart from CDC–much lower compared to this time last year:
Third, hospitalizations remain remarkably low despite the increase in reported COVID-positives cases all over:
Fourth, antibodies are being mass-produced! We are adding lots of new COVID-antibody-possessing Americans at a very low cost in illness and/or death and doing so at a faster pace. Delta and the vaccines are parallel tracks toward broader resistance and immunity. Some real scientists might even step forward and say that while COVID-19 will hang around indefinitely as an endemic nuisance, the chances of another life-threatening dangerous surge are rapidly approaching zilch if not already there.
ADDED BONUS: What little credibility the CDC had left has been squandered over its response to the Delta wave. The CDC decided to base new mask guidance on a weird interpretation of data resulting from an enthusiastic non-socially distanced gathering of tens of thousands of gay guys in P-town MA for “Bear Week.” That should have been the ultimate superspreader event but instead resulted in only 5-7 hospitalizations (some of which may have been for other medical reasons but accompanied by a positive COVID test) and zero deaths. Delta spread widely with minimal or no adverse effects among the vaccinated and unvaccinated alike. No big subsequent COVID surge in the surrounding community. The entire state of Massachusetts is still averaging only 2-5 COVID deaths per day.
The CDC/media panic porn addiction contrary to reality, science, and common sense will be their undoing.
So an increasing mild, rapidly spreading variant is rapidly pulling us toward the clear end of the pandemic and hopefully to the dawn of accountability and retribution. Masks off, businesses and schools open, and pitchforks out.
Published in General
It is not dogmatic. I showed you my evidence above.
Take it or leave it.
This has been an interesting discussion.
The German study is the first and I think only one I’ve heard of that showed that masks had a good effect. I’ve seen lots that didn’t find any benefit on the country, state, and even county level. Not sure why this one was different. I’m not in a position to judge the statistical methods they used. It is interesting that they were done at a time when the numbers were dropping anyway.
In fact, it seems a lot of the mitigations were introduced after the first peak in 2020 when the numbers were already coming down. Clearly none of them stopped the large increase in Winter 2020/21, which is why I am very skeptical of them. We were masked, distanced, working from home, and there was still the usual seasonal wave.
Delta variant aside, I expected an increase this Summer just because there was an increase last Summer, mostly in the South. And that’s where the largest numbers are now. It will probably peak soon and go back down like last year. It’s frustrating that no one in the government acknowledges this.
They credit the vaccines with the numbers coming down this Spring, but they came down last Spring when no one was vaccinated.
It’s maddening that there isn’t more clarity on these things even with a year and a half of massive amounts of data. It’s insane especially that there’s no agreement on treating the mildly symptomatic. “Call us when you can’t breathe.”
The latest controversy seems to be which is the greater driver of variants – the unvaccinated, or the large-scale vaccination of a population where the virus is already everywhere. I’ve heard both claims made.
I regret that I’m at a point where I just don’t believe anyone in the government any more. I don’t think they know what they’re doing. I don’t think they will ever admit bad decisions that were made. I’m tired of being told what to do by these people.
That’s what I have found absolutely criminal — to the level of homicidal — over the last year. I can think of a couple people who might still be alive today if their doctors hadn’t essentially said “Call us when you can’t breathe” and instead started them on some proven treatments the moment they tested positive.
It’s not just journalists or politicians who threw their reputations in a pile and lit them on fire last year. Many doctors did the same.
Rebuilding trust has to be job #1. It also can’t be done until we get rid of every last bureaucrat in Washington.
Some great points. I am stunned that nobody in the top health agency echelons or major media has noticed (admitted?) the unbelievably uniform seasonality waves across climatically similar regions. Every mandate has failed because the experts absolutely refuse to consider that somebody coughing or sneezing infectious microloogies is not the only or even the primary transmission vector. The mask mandate myopia is based on this blinkered view of transmission.
Apparently, the Chinese have tried much harder lockdowns and failed to stop the spread anywhere. The damn thing erupts on its own terms.
Considers that the southern states did not have a common outbreak until three months after NY. Clearly, the virus did not take that long to get to Miami or Tuscon. Why did it wait until the end of July to break out?
And weirder still, the center of the US erupted at the same time. KS, NE, SD, ND, MO all peaked on exactly Nov 15, and a bunch of adjacent states within a week of that. That is amazing. No random pockets that pop up earlier or later, only marginal differences in rates between counties or between rural and urban. It is as if the bug were already almost everywhere in some dormant form and just took off as if triggered by some change in conditions–which is exactly the suggestion from R. Edgar Hope-Simpson in his 1992 book.
I doubt trust is even possible anymore.
Yup. I was going to say “It can’t be done so we might as well break up the country,” but I guess I have a TINY bit of hope.
In order to continue, that tiny bit of hope requires that not a single member of the establishment retains his or her position.
Some framed diplomas should be surrendered to the bonfire and some people banned from the profession. That includes journalists who claim to be science writers. It should be absolutely forbidden to claim that they meant well and just had the public interest in mind. That might work for mistakes in judgment when this thing first hit in March ’20 but costly obvious mistakes have been extended for over a year in the face of mountains of evidence that honest scientists would have acknowledged. Tar. Feathers. This can’t happen again.
This. This whole thing has been really rough on me because within my family (almost all the people with whom I interact) I’m known as a knowledge freak, that is, I am the one always seeking to know something, which has been made really difficult today with all the fakers and liars.
Whatever. Case closed.
I was just chatting with my son about the delta outbreak on Cape Cod in Provincetown. We were laughing about the national covid-19 maps that show this tiny red flag out in the middle of the Atlantic Ocean, thanks to Provincetown.
It still seems to be a nonevent as far as people in the mid-Cape are concerned. I didn’t see anyone wearing masks or taking any other precaution today as I was out and about.
Glad you agree with me.
Was your doctor willing to prescribe it for you, or did you get it online or something?
I know people. 😜 We have docs in the family, one of which called the scripts in early, before the government put the clamps on prescribing for COVID use. It also helps that he’s retired and isn’t threatened by potentially losing his license.
I have an MD relative too, but unfortunately he seems to be “on the other side.” Not so much intentionally, I don’t think, but because while he has an impressive ability to remember stuff he reads etc, his ability for independent thought doesn’t seem comparable. So he reads and remembers what the CDC etc write and say, and that’s the end of it. He can easily dismiss anything else he encounters because “That’s not what the CDC says.”
I suspect that one reason for our declining COVID death rates is that more doctors are using Ivermectin to treat it. Without admitting it publicly, of course.
I could be wrong. But it’s becoming apparent that COVID is not that difficult to treat. If you don’t listen to the CDC et al.
These are strange times…
Yeah, one of my brothers in Ohio lives next door to his PCP, who has prescribed Ivermectin for them for prophylactic use and treatment of symptoms. She’s not intimidated, but I think state rules must make a difference?
It is doubtful that the use of ivermectin is involved- many MDs won’t use it b/c the evidence for it is weak ( the ongoing PRINCIPLE study should really help sort this out). The death rate of COVID infections is confounded by the fact that the current spike involves a different patient population than the earlier waves – it is more likely the “low hanging fruit” is gone- many of the highly vulnerable are either dead from an earlier wave or vaccinated. That alone will make it appear the death rate is lower. Since most of the currently infected are younger unvaccinated people their death rate is already lower than many of the victims of the 1st two “waves”. The local impression is that those currently in the ICU are not only unvaccinated and younger than the earlier waves but they also have fewer comorbidities than patients in the earlier waves- probably a)because they are younger but also b) because delta spreads more readily. The feeling by the local intensivists is that when these “younger healthier” people get sick (ie on the ventilator)they are not turning around as fast as you would hope.
the CDC website will allow you to view hospital admissions by age cohort and it ain’t pretty for the 30-59 years old- they are back to Jan 2021 rates of admissions while the over 70 years old cohort is well below- that is due to vaccinations. If ivermectin were driving the decrease death rate you would expect a similar drop in admissions. The drop in death rates is most likely due to a younger infected cohort. https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#new-hospital-admissions
Does this mean the severity, and maybe the lethality not mentioned here, appears not to have changed between the variants, i.e. what makes things look different is the vaccinations?
CDC excess deaths are running more than 20x less than the Jan peak. Is all of that vaxxed old people plus absence of low-hanging fruit? Or from another angle, is the death rate for unvaxed younger people any different than it was? Locally, there is no surge in ICU or other COVID admissions. Is that happening elsewhere?
This is the right question to ask to see if the lethality has altered.
Not easy to tease out the answer-but 95% vaccine effectiveness(which is about the mRNA vax claims) translates to about 20x less. Our area went from a brief period of zero COVID census before the delta surge to ~ 1/3- 1/2 the census we had last winter. I don’t think the local disease rate is accurately measured since testing is down. You area’s surge will probably depend on local weather as well as the local vaccination rate. The bad news is that it looks like the northeast US will see the surge just about the time the school year starts so it will be interesting to see the response by local authorities. Some of the shade being thrown at states like Fla, Louisiana etc where the hospitalization rate is high & vaccination rate low ( https://www.wsj.com/articles/highly-vaccinated-states-keep-worst-covid-19-outcomes-in-check-as-delta-spreads-wsj-analysis-shows-11628328602?mod=hp_lead_pos1) needs to be tempered by the fact that for those states this is the “indoor” season b/c of the summer heat. The situation in NYC in the early fall we be worth watching- de Blasio & the teacher’s union will be in rare form if it spikes in NYC then.
I share you fear that fairly predictable seasonal spikes will trigger outbreaks of stupid. Florida will likely be on a clear downswing within two weeks, not that anybody will notice.
I don’t know enough about different medical delivery systems to understand why US hospitalization rates for COVID are vastly higher than Europe.
If COVID remains endemic will gratuitous interventions remain forever? Will risk perceptions (particularly involving kids) ever move closer to reality? Depressing to think that Stupid will linger long after COVID fades.
Stupid was around long before Covid and will be here long after Covid is gone.
I was referring to the particular variant of Stupid that has arisen in response to COVID, not the familiar already long-endemic type.
Ah.
The Stupid Delta Variant.
I am surprised that so many people insist on the wearing of face masks, but refuse to open a window. I also don’t understand why more commercial buildings don’t utilize UV sterilizing equipment in their HVAC systems. The media and government are to blame for bad information.
Hillsdale College installed whole building systems and implemented classroom air sanitizing processes last summer so their students could come back and their (older, vulnerable) professors could feel safe. Not everyone’s stupid.
Unfortunately, filtration, sterilization & increased air exchange mainly works by decreasing aerosol transmission but not on droplet transmission. So those who are highly risk adverse will still want masks (for reducing droplet transmission) plus alterations in HVAC systems- please don’t spread the word on this.
“improving indoor air ventilation and filtration only accounts for far-field (ie, beyond 6 feet) aerosol transmission and does not significantly influence close contact transmission. Wearing masks is still important indoors for source control and for close contact with individuals even when high air exchange rates are achieved.”
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2779062
it is heaven sent for the Karen wannabes
Hillsdale encouraged students and faculty to mask, too. I think they had one of the best mitigation plans around, but kids will be kids and they went to frat parties and caught COVID anyway. Whaddya gonna do with people who value freedom?
Hillsdale also set aside their newly constructed townhomes for COVID isolation and provided nursing care for sick students. It really was an all out effort to get their students back in the classroom safely.
CDC thinks the delta variant may cause more severe disease (based on data from Canada, Singapore & Scotland) but that the vaccine is still highly protective against hospitalization and death from the delta variant (about 90% effective). The problem in the CDC’s eye is the vaccine is less effective at preventing infection from the delta virus-only reducing infection by as little as 1/3(altho the little data I saw on their slides showed that the vax effectiveness was more like 60+% vs infections). They also believe the duration of viral shedding and viral titers are much higher in a delta variant infected patient (whether vaxxed or not). The effectiveness of the vax vs infection is probably hard to ascertain since so many infections are asymptomatic to minimally symptomatic in the vaccinated that they probably do not get tested.
.https://www.washingtonpost.com/context/cdc-breakthrough-infections/94390e3a-5e45-44a5-ac40-2744e4e25f2e/