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Care to Make It Interesting?
“Candidate Casino” looks like such fun on Special Report that I thought Ricochet could use a version. Instead of focusing on the chips, however, let’s go with the odds. Bet amongst yourselves.
[A side note: I’m a little rusty. The last time I made book was 1977, for the network media buyers at an ad agency. On Tuesdays, the House took a 50 share for Happy Days, Laverne and Shirley, and Three’s Company. A 49 or 51 paid 2-1; a 48 or 52 paid 3-1, etc. Only my boss, the head of research, beat the House. The buyer who did best was a new guy, but not so long later he was running the department. The profits paid for the Christmas party.]
Okay, here’s my first draft for the Nominee Derby. Tell me where I’m wrong.
Walker 3-1
Rubio 3-1
Bush 7-2
Perry 5-1
Cruz 10-1
Paul 12-1
Christie 15-1
Fiorina 20-1
Kasich 25-1
Huckabee 30-1
Graham 50-1
Santorum 75-1
Carson 100-1
Jindal 100-1
Pataki 200-1
Trump 6 No Trump
I would move Walker to 4 to 1, Cruze to 50-1, Graham to 200-1, Jindal up to 30-1 Kasich up to 15 to 1 Looks good otherwise.
Just saw today’s polling numbers, and you may be right about Walker.
Trying to be objective — what could be, not what should be — I just don’t foresee anyone getting ginned up for Jindal. Kasich would have short odds for VP, we’ll see if he even bothers running for President. May stay in Ohio and let the Party come to him.
He’s one of a group whose best chance to head the ticket might be a deadlocked convention.
Here are the odds on Paddy Power (this is for president).
Hillary is at even odds. Jeb Bush is at 4/1 and Walker is at 9/1. Cruz is 33/1.
Let’s hope the market starts moving away from Hillary.
Here are the odds for just the Republican nomination.
Kim Kardashian has 1000/1 odds!
Looks like a decent lineup, though I’d jump Paul over Cruz and bump Jindal past Santorum.
It’s funny because I was just reading about prediction markets, and how wall street used to have instruments that were essentially bets on elections–they generally outperformed polls in their predictive ability.
Main quibble I have with your table is that it’s too smooth between the frontrunners and the long shots–my split between these categories being between Christie and Fiorina–so she should be more like 200:1 and everyone below her should be worse.
Paddy Power’s numbers seem more reasonable to me, though I’m astonished to see Ben Carson at 16:1.
Paddy Power seems to think Mike Bloomberg has been welcomed back into the Republican party.
No pint for you, Paddy!
FWIW Betfair odds currently are:
1. Bush 3.5/1
2. Rubio 5/1
2. Walker 5/1
4. Paul 7/1
5. Christie 8/1
Those 5 constitute the top tier.
Huckabee and Cruz make up the entire 2nd tier.
It’s funny because I was just reading about prediction markets, and how wall street used to have instruments that were essentially bets on elections–they generally outperformed polls in their predictive ability.
Yes, you used to be able to bet on it through intrade, there was some propping up of Romney right before the election that went contra to all the other polling…
I’d jump Paul, Christie, Fiorina, Kasich, Jindal and Huckabee over Cruz.
I’d put Jindal above Graham.
I wonder what the VP odds would be?
Walker 3-1
Kasich 5-1
Rubio 6-1
Paul 7-1
Fiorina 10-1
Portman 15-1
Bolton 25-1
Bush 100-1
I’d move fiorina up and Paul way back. Bush off the board…