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Biden and Iran
A Bulwark piece about the attacks on Iran’s nuclear facilities speculates that it was the work of Israel, the US, or the awesome Avengers Assemble! combo of both countries’ forces. The Bulwark writer says:
As the New York Times reported last week, they apparently are the result of joint U.S.-Israeli operations designed to set back Iran’s nuclear and military programs. They come following Iran’s lack of cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which passed a resolution last month calling out Iran on this problem.
I share your astonishment that the resolution did not accomplish anything – I mean, they called them out. Surely a few Mullahs retired to their private chamber to have a good hot sob over the humiliation. Gosh darn it, we’re doing our best not to make nuclear weapons, but it’s hard! Can you give a guy a break?
Iran seems to be banking on a Joe Biden victory in November. After all, not only was Biden part of the administration that negotiated the deal, but he pushed wary Senate Democrats to approve of it and even bragged about the deal in his primary campaign ads. His longtime aid and likely national security advisor, Jake Sullivan, was a key negotiator in the talks leading up to the JCPOA.
So with the prospect in sight of the United States returning to the JCPOA and lifting the sanctions, the Trump administration and the Netanyahu government in Israel are apparently trying to set back Iran’s capabilities while they have the chance.
True. Also, vote Biden! Because Trump. Here comes the reasoned analysis:
But all parties might be mistaken. Whoever wins in November will have unprecedented leverage over Iran. The regime’s popularity is at an all-time low—one recent defector has suggested that it is in single digits, according to internal estimates.
Iran’s economy is in free fall—both because of the U.S. sanctions and the incompetence and corruption of the regime’s leaders. The regime’s handling of the pandemic has been catastrophic, with over 200 daily deaths. And the people are only blaming the regime for their problems, not any foreign power.
It is difficult to see the Biden administration not take advantage of the situation for a more favorable agreement, especially as the U.N.-imposed arms embargo will soon expire under the terms of the resolution that adopted the JCPOA.
Ah.
A Biden administration will embolden all those Iran hawks on the left who are champing at the bit, eager to craft a new deal on the harshest possible terms. That’s why they’re Democrats! Unsparing advocates of American interests! This time they won’t be kneecapped by Obama’s negotiators, no sir – like sharks who can detect a minute particle of blood in the vast ocean, they will bore in hard, and place stern restrictions on Iran’s missile program, prohibiting them from testing ICBMs until 2039.
It’s brilliant strategy: wait until your foe is on the ropes, then stop your barrage, help him back to his corner, daub some Vaseline on the cuts, and ask that the next round be postponed until your adversary is feeling better. The writer admits that diplomacy hasn’t really been the bee’s knees:
Four decades of Western engagement with Iran has failed to modify the regime’s behavior, internally or externally. Even the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement failed to change Iran’s behavior outside of its nuclear program.
Imagine that. Even the Obama administration’s nuclear agreement failed to change Iran’s behavior outside of its nuclear program. Complete shock, that. Also, it failed to change Iran’s behavior inside of its nuclear program, but c’mon, we had a framework. We had a process. We had a dialogue.
You know what has worked? Making a lot of bad stuff in the hands of some bad people blow up. But that’s not how you make partners in a process that makes a framework for dialogue.
Question for the Biden voters here: do you think the institutional anti-semitism of the left – I’m sorry, the anti-Zionist sentiment, totally different thing – will have an impact on Biden’s ability to take a stance on international security and non-proliferation that also aligns with Israel’s interests?
Published in General
But in the West Bank if you speak out against Hamas you get killed and your family gets killed. That’s not liberal democracy.
Iran’s population had soured on theocracy whereas a significant portion of Turkey’s population has at least tolerated theocracy up until now.
But even in Turkey, Erdogan isn’t likely to be “Supreme Leader for Life” as the current Islamic dictatorship in Iran is, if the people of Turkey have anything to say about it.
The most recent election in Istanbul, where Erdogan was mayor over a decade ago, is an example. The anti-Erdogan candidate won decisively.
Again, I would point to the people of Eastern Europe under the domination of the Soviet Union from the end of World War II through 1989.
The people were willing to throw off dictatorship at the first opportunity.
To be sure, even today there are various candidates for office, some successful, who run on “illiberal” platforms. I believe the most recent victor in the Polish elections has made some anti-Jewish comments.
So, no one is arguing that liberal representative democracy always yields perfect results 100 percent of the time. It is just that in the case of Iran, many Iranians are not nearly as wealthy as Europeans and North Americans and would be reluctant to spend billions of dollars waging terror campaigns against various populations around the world as is the case today.
While Mossadegh was elected to the Majles (the Iranian Parliament) by democratic means (Iran at the time was not a democracy by any means, though some aspects of it were democratic in nature), the office of Prime Minister was nominated from amongst the Majles deputies by the Shah. In turn, the Majles members either voted for or against the nomination (In his initial appointment Mossadegh was approved by a tally of 79-12). Mossadegh enjoyed massive popularity at different times during his political career, but his position as Prime Minister was never due to a nationwide poll (he was PM on two separate occasions).
This is not to say Mossadegh’s position was not legitimate. He was chosen by his constituency to be a Majles deputy, this is indisputable. He was not however, chosen by the Iranian people to be Prime Minister. This also does not account for the fact that the Majles was mostly comprised of feudal landowners, intrinsically opposed to Mossadegh and his populism. Before Mossadegh became Prime Minister, the Iranian public was unhappy with the state of affairs in Iran; Mossadegh with his sincere populism was seen by the Shah as a clever alternative to yet another feudal landowner or military officer.
This is a good website on Iran.
The Mossadeq Coup: Misconceptions about the Role of the United States and the CIA
http://persophilia.blogspot.com/2014/08/MossadeqMisconceptionsCIA.html
Here’s more.
Here’s a video on the explosions in Iran.
Is there foreign involvement behind the explosions in Iran?
There is a theory that the Iranians thought they had detected an aircraft and took a shot at it with their vaunted SAMs. This time, instead of blowing up an airliner, they dinged one of their power plants.
I hope you’re right, though I suspect maybe not. Love the reading list – Azadeh Moaveni is a very interesting journalist.
How Israel, in Dark of Night, Torched It’s Way to Iran’s Nuclear Secrets.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/07/15/us/politics/iran-israel-mossad-nuclear.html
The Next Iranian Revolution?
The Foundation of the Defense of Democracies discusses Iran.